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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NEW RECORD HIGH Coming 26 td from today The wave structure I was so bearish on Has made it to the support targets the crash cycle based on data back to 1902 is all Crash cycles have been 8 to 12 TD today is day 9 I have moved to a 90 long knowing that the cycle has at most 2 days and is into the 5 /6 spiral cycle lows inan event due by 3/8 to 3/13 focus 3/10 .I can now state that the chart posted could be counted as an expanding triangle in what is now labeled wave 4 I am looking for a sharp 26 td rally to mark the top from 3/10the week .SP 100 should see 3055 min to as high 3150 in a blowoff wave . Best of trades WAVETIMER
CBOE:OEX
by wavetimer
1
Direxion High Beta Bull S&P 500 3X | HIBL | Long at $30.86Contrarian view, despite tariffs. I don't think this rodeo is over - but I could always be wrong. Even if individual consumption drops (which I think it has for some time now), rising prices will continue to mask it. Many, but not all, companies will profit and until there is a "bigger" catalyst... bullish. AMEX:HIBL is a personal buy at $30.86 (also noting the possibility of it going into the FWB:20S in the near-term) Targets: $40.00 $45.00 $50.00
AMEX:HIBLLong
by WorthlessViews
VIX going higher: Sector Rotation UnderwayTVC:VIX is the tool I use for market timing. It tells us a lot. When it spikes to a Resistance (often 50% of the last major high) that tends to be a market bottom. But when you see what it is doing the last few weeks: Closing sustainably higher each bar... you know the market is pricing in more volatility. VIX is known as the "fear index" and you can extrapolate that out to see that fear is increasing. The VIX is also the most forward looking indicator I have found for the stock market. All signs point to more broad market downside. Another thing going on in context is a clear Sector Rotation. I noticed this last week but today's look at the Sector ETFs make it more clear. Not everything is down; AMEX:XLP and AMEX:XLU are up even as AMEX:SPY makes new lows. What this tells me is that investors are fleeing into "quality" stocks with low volatility and that pay dividends. I'm currently sitting in cash, waiting for opportunities, and hedged some of my long term tax advantage accounts in AMEX:SH
CBOE:VIXLong
by norok
3
Time to Prepare | $SPY Options Bull & Bear Week 1 March 2025AMEX:SPY Last week's AMEX:SPY $595 Put 3/10 ran for 66% from $480 up to $1,420. The last two weeks, the market has suffered a controlled pullback. So far it has been cautious selling rather than outright panic. While fear has entered the market, it has yet to reach capitulation, where there would be significantly more potential downside. The key level to watch long-term is the 200SMA on the daily chart, currently at $568.45. This level, which hasn't been tested in 16 months, could signal a Stage 4 selloff, a more aggressive and potentially prolonged downward trend. Here are this week's AMEX:SPY Options: (15-30 minute candle closes for confirmation and stop-loss) 📜 $580 PUT 3/17 Entry: Breakdown and failed retest of $584.50 Target 🎯 : $580, $574, $571 📜 $590 CALL 3/17 Confirmed breakout over $584.50 Target 🎯 : $590, $591.50, $594
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-4-25: Top Resistance PatternToday's pattern is a Top Resistance pattern. Usually, these types of patterns reflect a market where price moves higher - attempting to find a peak/resistance level, then rolls downward (confirming that resistance level). Because of yesterday's strong selling after Trump's Tariff comments, I suggest the peak in today's price activity may be set in very early trading. We're going to have to watch the charts to see how price reacts to more news and the continued restructuring of global economies. One thing is obvious: the markets are resettling based on Trump's expectations and tariff comments. I checked out TLT and a few other symbols last night, and it appears the Predator Fed comments I made over the past 12+ months are still holding up very well. Inadvertently, the US has moved into a position of being the 900 lb gorilla of the global markets. Higher Fed rates for longer are putting pressure on global currencies and many global economies. If Trump is able to secure more US manufacturing and a more secure US economy (reducing deficit spending), I can see the next 3+ years being very disruptive for the global markets. Ultimately, though, building a strong US economy and going through this disruption will lead to explosive growth in 2026 and beyond. You may not see it now, but if we are able to organize our government/finances better going forward - start to think about how powerful that could be for the next 15 to 25+ years. Next, thank you for all the great comments. Love it. Gold and Silver are starting to make that recovery rally move after the last 7+ days of selling. This could be a very powerful move to the upside for metals and miners. Bitcoin is still struggling and will likely stay trapped in a sideways range. that range could be $10k to GETTEX:13K in size - so stay cautious of wild volatility in BTCUSD if you are trading it. Again,I want to urge all of you to consider your trading as "taking calculated risks" - not gambling. I talked to a friend just yesterday, and he told me how I changed his life by helping him to stop the gambling-style of trading he was doing. Once you realize that trading is not about those HUGE WINS (sure they are nice) - but it is about staying agile, getting in and out with decent profits, and growing your account efficiently. So, I urge you to step back and consider every new trade you take as "how much am I really risking if things go wrong". When you do that, you'll find you can still take the trade, but you'll teach yourself to manage your capital more efficiently. Ok. Go Get Some! #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
8
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 4, 2025 🔮🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Implementation of U.S. Tariffs 📈: Effective today, the United States has imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on imports from China. These measures aim to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. ​ 🇺🇸🏛️ Presidential Address to Congress 🏛️: President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver his first address to Congress since his re-election, where he is expected to discuss the newly implemented tariffs and their anticipated impact on the U.S. economy. ​ investopedia.com 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, March 4: 🏛️ Treasury Auctions 🏛️: 8-Week Bill Auction (6:00 AM ET): The U.S. Department of the Treasury will auction 8-week bills, providing insights into short-term government borrowing costs.​ 17-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): A 17-week bill auction will also take place, offering additional perspective on investor demand for U.S. debt instruments.​ 4-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): The Treasury will auction 4-week bills, contributing to the understanding of immediate-term borrowing conditions.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update for 3-3-25 : Absolutely PerfectThis quick little update is for everyone who follows my research. Today was absolutely PERFECT in terms of my expectations and how the SPY moved so far today. A nearly perfect downward price trend targeting the 588 level. Now, we'll see if we get a base and a squeeze higher before the end of trading today. I'm so impressed with my ability to pinpoint these type of opportunities for everyone. Remember, trading is about taking the opportunity to position your assets for gains. Get some. And please share your success stories if you have them. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
16
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-3-25 : Up-Down-UP Pattern CounterToday's pattern, and Up-Down-Up in counter-trend mode, suggests the markets will attempt to move downward after the open and attempt to retrace some (or most) of Friday's gain. I do believe this downward price move is essential for the markets to build a moderate base before attempting to move higher into the march 11-16 topping pattern my research suggests will prompt another breakdown in price. Ultimately, these moves up and down over the past 30+ days are establishing a sideways (mega-phone type) price structure that I warned was likely to happen more than 90+ days ago (back in December 2024). What we are seeing right now is a rolling of price while uncertainty continues to drive capital away from technology, semis and innovation - moving into safety and security. This will continue until July or August 2025, then capital will suddenly shift back into risk-ON in my opinion. By the time everyone thinks the markets are breaking downward (crashing), that is when I think the markets will make a sudden shift toward growth and innovation as the US resumes a growth phase in late 2025 (carrying into 2026). Currently, we are in a minor little "pause/rally" phase after the last bout of selling. This rally will likely end sometime after March 11 - leading to a breakdown in price starting between 3-14 and 3-17. This is a trader's market. Gold/Silver appear to have found a footing and seem to be bouncing. We'll see if Gold/Silver move above critical resistance and continue to rally higher. BTCUSD has rebounded back to support/resistance, but has also moved into a new DUAL Excess Phase Peak pattern that suggests increased price volatility for Bitcoin. I still believe we are moving into a very side-range consolidation pattern for Bitcoin. I suggest staying fairly cautious today and setting up some trades for the pause/rally I expect to carry through this week for the SPY/QQQ. No need to get too greedy on a Monday. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%. ​ 🇪🇺💶 ECB Interest Rate Decision 💶: The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, March 6. Markets anticipate a 0.25% rate cut, which would adjust the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. ​ 🇨🇳📈 China's Economic Targets 📈: During the National People's Congress, China is expected to set its economic growth target at around 5% for the year. The government may introduce measures to boost consumption and support growth amid global economic uncertainties. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 3: 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏭: This index measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction.​ 📅 Wednesday, March 5: 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏢: This index assesses the performance of the U.S. services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.​ Trading Economics 📅 Thursday, March 6: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly data indicating the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📦 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 📦: This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, providing insight into manufacturing demand.​ 📅 Friday, March 7: 👷‍♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷‍♂️: A key indicator of employment trends, reflecting the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.​ 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: The percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.​ 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵: This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Weekly plan: ESH2025NYSE:ES FUTURES 3/3/2025 6012>> 6056>>> 6083-93 Weekly pivot: 5970 , Now Trading @ 5957 5919>> 5878>>> 5828 CONTEXT: NYSE:ES closed Friday's session with massive spike to the upside. Now NYSE:ES is back inside the previous balance zone that extends to 214 points range with 6056 for half back, however we need to be cautious since daily chart still is One Time Framing Down (OTFD) which would end if NYSE:ES is able to recapture or trade above 5971, at that point we will need to redraw daily balance zone. @everyone
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
Selling Premium Going into Costco EarningsGiven Costco’s historical tendency for minimal post-earnings stock movement, along with inflated IV in the options market, selling premium via a bear call spread is a high-probability, risk- managed strategy to profit from an expected IV crush and minimal price movement following earnings. Key Points Supporting the Thesis: 1. Historical Price Movement: Over the past 4 years, Costco’s stock has experienced an average post-earnings price movement of only 1.24%. The majority of moves have been within a modest range of -1% to +2%. This indicates that despite earnings announcements, the stock tends to remain within a predictable price range, minimizing the potential for significant directional price swings. 2. Implied Volatility and Overpricing of Options: Currently, the options market is pricing in a 4.6% move for Costco’s stock post-earnings. Given Costco’s historical price movement patterns, this is an overestimation of potential volatility. IV tends to collapse after earnings announcements. 3. Costco’s High Valuation: Costco is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 61, which is significantly higher than historical levels. This suggests that the stock is already expensive relative to its earnings potential, making it less likely to experience a massive upward movement after earnings. The high valuation also means that even strong earnings may not drive significant upside, further increasing the likelihood of a muted post-earnings reaction. 4. Earnings Catalysts and Market Behavior: Costco’s earnings reports historically have had limited impact on the stock’s price due to the company’s stable revenue and earnings growth. Investors have already priced in much of the growth potential, leading to minimal surprise reactions to earnings releases. The combination of low historical price movement and high IV makes this a prime environment for selling premium, as the likelihood of large moves is low, while option prices remain high.
NASDAQ:COST
by KevinBurrows
2
SPY Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 594.00 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 602.54 Safe Stop Loss - 590.04 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
1