Market Snapshot - MSTR is a monster + NVDA earnings and HedgingNVDA beat top and bottom estimates after market today.
Due to it's 3.58T market cap, let's see where the SPY/QQQ are trading Thursday post NVDA earnings.
MSTR making headlines as one of the top traded stocks (behind NVDA) and it continues to surge and even outperform BTC in a big way - great gains but be careful of the rocket ship runs because they tend to end violently.
I also spend time reviewing my full watchlist in stocks, options, futures, and forex.
Thanks for watching!!!
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
NVDA Predictive Modeling Outlook : Pre Earnings 11-20-24I thought I would have a little fun with my ADL Predictive Modeling system.
This shows the Daily & Weekly predictive results for NVDA prior to the earnings data release.
Have fun.
This is really just to show you how the ADL system works and to test the outcome related to NVDA's earnings/outcome.
Get some..
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Gold takes Adv. since Trump-a-rally pans out to Bulls fartIt's gone 2 weeks or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press.
Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin clears $93,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally.
Among nearly 2000 components of Smallcap Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT , appr. 90 percent of them (without any fundamental reasons) were up on November 6 - at the day Trump clinched White House victory.
For S&P 500 SP:SPX and Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX indices these numbers were 70 and 75 percent respectively.
Since US dollar interest rates are still near multi year highs and Powell still says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates.. all of that means Trump-a-rally gives no light for super-duper bets, as it's been discussed in earlier posted ideas.
Moreover, Geopolitics is roaring back, as current U.S. President Joe Biden tries to authorize the yellow-blues to use powerful long-range American-made weapons inside Russia's legal areas, potentially inside Kursk region where located The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, that is one of the three biggest nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Russia and one of the four biggest electricity producers in the country.
The main graph is for Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD , and it indicates on Cup with Handle technical structure in development as Gold takes Adv. since Trump-a-rally pans out to Bulls fart.
Healthcare Sector Poised For A 7% to 15% Rally Into Early 2025My continued research to help traders shows the US Healthcare and Biotech sectors are poised for a very large rally phase into early 2025.
Particularly, XLV and XBI seem uniquely setup to rally more than 9-10% over the next 60 to 90+ days.
This video explains how I use my Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predictive Modeling system to find opportunities other people miss.
Using technology, predictive modeling, and inference engines like this is one advantage I have because I can build any type of technology or system I like - and use it on any symbol or interval I like.
Now is the time to prepare for the big moves headed into 2025. Follow my research if you want to target the biggest price swings in the markets.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-20 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat Down Pattern suggests the SPY & QQQ will trail downward a bit within the current #2 sideways flagging pattern. I believe this setup is indicative of a broader breakdown (Anomaly Event) playing out headed into Thanksgiving and into the end of the year.
Gold and Silver are also moving in an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern - struggling near a Phase #3 (sideways consolidation) range. This move will resolve to the upside if my research is correct, yet we could also see Gold and Silver move into a very large Phase #2 type of EPP phase (Flagging downward). This could setup a very large upward price rally in Gold and Silver over the next 60+ days.
BTCUSD is struggling to break to new highs. Although I see a confirmed bullish trend because of a recent new Higher High, I also see BTCUSD struggling to continue to make new highs right now.
Because of this, I see some potential for a breakdown if BTCUSD is unable to rally to new highs within the next 5 to 6+ hours.
Remember, price must always attempt to make new highs or new lows. Failure to make a new high means price must then attempt to make a new low. Failure to make a new low means price must then attempt to make a new high.
These are the RULES OF MARKET PRICE ACTIVITY. Once you learn to use/follow them, trading becomes a bit easier to understand.
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NVDA earnings 11/20NVDA cycle target 225 , but it has run a lot and is in the 3rd cycle without a major pullback.
Congestion zone 137/153
Above 153 move is 165/181
Below 137 move is 133-121/116
This is still a range bound move and coming days it needs to decide power over 153 or puke below 121.
If straight run towards 225 without any major pullback , in coming year , I would look for some good correction in overall markets
Market insights & Where we are heading on the $QQQ $SPY $IWM 📊 Market Insights & Future Trends: NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM
In this must-watch video, we’re diving deep into:
Market Direction: Projections for where the markets are heading this week into year-end.
Potential Catalysts: Key events and factors that could cause significant market shifts.
My Secret Tools & Strategies: An inside look at the methods I use to anticipate market moves.
Ready to get ahead of the game? Let’s dive in and uncover the insights you need to stay informed and strategic!
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Bitcoin Breaks To New Highs - $100.5K Is The Likely TargetI created this short video to help traders understand how Fibonacci Price Theory works using BTCUSD.
This move suggests that BTCUSD will attempt to rally above $95k and target $100.5k in the next trending phase.
BTCUSD broke away from the Excess Phase peak Flagging formation (#2) very clearly today.
At this point, there is very little downside price risk unless price breaks below $86.8k.
I also review Gold/Silver and the SPY/QQQ to help traders prepare for the BIG SHIFT into my proposed Anomaly Event.
Here we go..
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2024-11-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Bullish bias still. The reversal was nasty and we had a very strong close. We are in a nested expanding triangle and if bears are strong, market won’t get above 5950. If bulls do, we go 5980 and the bear trend line next. I lean bullish. Measured move up from today gets us close to the ath and it’s the third try bears tried to close below the 50% retracement and failed. Good chance today was bears giving up and we melt again to a new ath. If we drop below 5900 again, I am probably wrong and bears taking over again.
comment : Nasty reversal and a good close by the bulls. Can expect follow through tomorrow above 5950 up tom 5980 and test the bear trend line. Above that we print a new ath. Best for bears would be to keep this below 5950 and then they have a chance of testing down to 5900 again. I have a heavy bullish bias going into tomorrow as long as market does not drop below 5900 much again
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5900 - 6100
bull case: Bulls want to test the bear trend line around 5980 and go above 6000 again. They do need to break above 5950 first, which could be resistance due to the expanding triangle pattern but I doubt it. They kept the market 3 days in a row above the 50% retracement and I don’t think bears are strong enough to try a fourth time tomorrow. Measured move up from today’s reversal leads to around 6036.
Invalidation is below 5900.
bear case: Bears had an amazing sell off but bulls bought it big time. Technically this could be seen as a bear flag, but bears would have to keep the market below 5950 for that. That’s their first target and then getting below 5900 again. Since we are seeing big time buying below 5900 and the selling was mainly due to news, I don’t think bears are favored.
Invalidation is above 5950.
short term: Bullish. Probably more squeezing late bears tomorrow and I still do have unreasonable insane targets above 6100 that could be hit over the next days-weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying 5855. Market printed a perfect inverted head & shoulders on the 1m tf, huge bull bars on a big volume increase. 3 almost too good to by true reasons to take the trade.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-19 : Top Resistance PatternToday's Pattern plays into the Anomaly Event I believe will continue to play out over the next 15+ trading days.
Today's Top Resistance pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move higher, attempting to find a peak, then roll downward into a decidedly bearish type fo trend.
My analysis continues to suggest a price Anomaly event is likely. I believe this event could be related to a financial or hard-asset type of devaluation event (a mini-crisis).
As of right now, we need to see how today plays out related to price trends. I would be cautious of a rollover to the downside throughout trading today for the SPY/QQQ.
Gold & Silver already moving into a very strong #3 rally phase - attempting to find the new consolidation range (forming the #3 of the EPP pattern).
Bitcoin has moved into a moderate bullish trend - but could still roll downward very strongly. Stay very cautious of this moderate upward trend until we get a more confirmed breakaway above the Ultimate High.
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SPY Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is trading in a strong
Uptrend an the index is
Already making a bullish
Rebound from the local
Horizontal support below
At 584$ which reinforces
Our bullish bias and makes
Us expect a further move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video for 11-18: No INTERNET IssueMorning guys.
Something odd happened today after I created a great 45-minute morning video.
TradingView reported an Internet Issue even though my internet was working perfectly???
So, I DOWNLOADED the video so I have a record of it and posted it up elsewhere.
I don't know what to say - except check my profile on TradingView.
I was not going to try to replicate my 45 minute recording after experiencing this issue.
Get Some.
SPY LOVERS, BE READY ! This week, I decided to remove some objects I had in the chart history as references, which we’ve been analyzing, to make some space and clean up the chart a bit.
After reaching all-time highs, the price has naturally begun a retracement.
But what’s new in technical analysis?
Let’s analyze the price together:
In this case, I added an ascending channel where the price follows an upward sequence, bouncing between support and resistance.
Here’s the million-dollar question: How much further can the price drop?
If we look at the chart, I marked a very important line in red or maroon color at $575.12, which aligns with a resistance pivot and two indecisive candlesticks with identical volumetric bodies.
Often, indecisive levels are key to how the market makes sudden decisions after an indecisive candle. In this case, if we pay closer attention, the indecisive level marked in maroon color is positioned exactly at the support of the ascending channel. This suggests how far the price might fall, and we could potentially see a rebound. For me, this would be the primary scenario.
But...
If the price breaks through this level, my second scenario would be a drop to the order block. Since this level has acted as both support and resistance in the past, I can validate it as my secondary inflection zone or "Inflection Block."
You might wonder: What on earth is an inflection zone?
As I’ve mentioned multiple times and explained in some of my analysis, inflection zones—or points of inflection—represent moments where there’s a significant change in the price’s direction within a trend, whether in a market, an asset, or an economy.
On a trading chart, an inflection point is the spot where the chart changes direction or marks an important decision.
An inflection zone can also be a historical area on a chart. As we can see, my order block is already being considered an inflection zone because the price has historically made key moves within it. and i called it "Inflection Block" (See the white arrows).
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
TRADE SAFE
Best regards!
nasdaq to 20k?!good evening,
---
consider this post somewhat fictional for now, created more for entertainment purposes, but i want you to know that there are some serious data points which i'm going to bring up to build the case that the stock market has found a long term bottom.
---
~our monthly indicator is finally oversold for the first time since 2009 market low and is on the verge of crossing bullish.
~nasdaq is backtesting the monthly ichimoku cloud.
~0.382 cycle wave 4 target hit through a very complex correction .
~the monthly rsi has confirmed a hidden bear.
~the us dollar found a top and is headed down to about 80 bucks over this next year.
~us10y, topped out.
~fed might run out of money if they continue to press the markets.
~fear is at all time high.
~retail short positions are at all time high.
~and i'm buying everything.
---
the cycle w5 target on nasdaq sits at $20,000 and we could be in the early stages of beginning that ascension.
---
ps. take my words with a total grain of salt, as i could be very much dreaming here.
ps2. in my last big nasdaq post, i called the top, but was early by a few months. it also went a bit higher, so if i adjust the target with the current data, we have reached the 4th wave target successfully.
✌
ALL ROADS LEAD TO $PYI am feeling Bullish Monday for SPY. After the heavy selling on Friday.
The 4-hour chart shows a DOJI well stablished by a small green candle that start to show momentum. On the smaller time frame, it is rebounding on the support line at that level.
Supporting actions in relation to prediction:
1. Downtrace was not able to push lower than 50% in the FVG.
2. The lowest point once the great FVP was established was 585.43 and was not successfully broken at market close. Instead, it closed with the candle sitting above.
3. NVDA just rebounded at the small trendline created.
4. TSLA just rebounded at my last prediction price of 301 up, creating a sustainable support in that area to uptrend.
5. APPL is respecting a minor trendline within the 195 to 219 and starting to create a cross between 50 and 200 MA.
This indication seems that the companies will push the SPY level up next week.
If the SPY rejects this analysis I would wait until it reaches the 575/578 area for a push up.
(If it goes below of 568 may the market gods be with us.)
BEAR-TRAP : GAP Reversal May Lead To Larger EPP FlaggingPay attention to the dual Excess Phase Peak (EPP) patterns in the SPY this morning and how the current GAP Reversal pattern may resolve as a base/bottom in the markets in early trading.
I believe the markets will shift from this early breakdown into a moderate upward (Flagging) trend.
Learning to anticipate these types of shifts in the market can help you plan and prepare for future price trend rotations.
Knowing the SPY is likely to attempt to base/bottom from a broader EPP pattern (moving into the sideways Flagging stage #2) suggests traders may attempt to prepare for a 0.75% to 1.25% upward price swing over the next 2 to 4+ days.
This aggressive downward selling aligned perfectly with my SPY Cycle Patterns. Now, this low may be the Base/Bottom I'm expecting to shift into the FLAGGING phase of the larger EPP pattern (#2).
Buckle up. This should be fun.
Looks like a BEAR TRAP in the making.
Get some.
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