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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

2024-11-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bears moving it lower but barely. Every low was followed by 7-10 point pullback. For tomorrow I can see the following, 5909 is the daily 20ema and the breakout retest is at 5924. Those could be potential targets if the bears are strong and keep the market below 6000. Above 6000 I think many bears will give up and market could retry 6030 or higher. On the daily chart we have a two legged pullback and bulls are free to melt again. Still heavily favoring the bulls since the selling is so weak. comment : Close below 6000 was good for the bears but does the 1h chart look bearish to you? Look at the daily chart and see how insignificant this move down is. Bears would need a big acceleration down and keep the market below the 5m 20ema for couple of hours and 100+ points. This will likely be a minor pullback which the bulls buy tomorrow. Be prepared for a nasty short squeeze tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we close above 6060 but consider me dumbfounded if we close the week below 5950. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5900 - 6100 bull case: Bulls want to close the week green and print another buy signal going into next week. Most bears will likely cover above 6000 and try again around 6015, which was the big magnet for the entire week and it will likely be for tomorrow as well. Above 6035 we see a complete give up by bears until 6053. Everything is in place for a big move tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5960. bear case: Bears closed below 6000. That’s the only thing they have going for them. Can they get down to the breakout price 5924 and daily 20ema around 5911? I highly doubt it. For that to happen the market would have to stay below 6000 and trap many bulls. Even a hot ppi print today could not move the market much and we had two sided trading all day. In all fairness, we have a very clear bull channel on the daily chart, with 2 upper trend lines, one around the ath 6053 and the other currently runs through 6180. I think 6180 is currently much more likely than touching the lower trend line at 5760. Invalidation is above 6001. short term: Bullish. Want to see a 2%+ up move tomorrow and squeeze further. Below 5950 we will print 5920 or 5900. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. Update 2024-11-14: Blow-off top happening right now. Got measured move targets above 6150 or higher. Santa came early, so don’t expect him to come around again this year. current swing trade : Nope trade of the day: Selling the open was decent I guess. Market looks much more bearish on the 1h tf than it was. Much two sided trading with better end for the bears. I don’t think selling 6000 was a good trade, despite going down to 5964.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Special Update: Trump Win Sets Off Predatory Fed ActionsThis video highlights why I believe 2025 & 2026 will be filled with incredible opportunities for traders/investors. Most people don't understand that the world's financial markets are connected through central bank policy and credit/debt operations. Global economies operate in some ways as interconnected economies, but many aspects of individual global economies are unique to their local economies, governments, and monetary policies. Right now, we are living through what may become the "Great Decoupling Event," as I believe the actions of the US Federal Reserve and global central banks over the past 10+ years have created a unique situation for investors. There has never been a time when global central banks attempted to coordinate around a global event (like COVID) in an attempt to spark economic activity. Usually, global central banks operate somewhat autonomously, depending on localized credit/debt/economic factors. After the COVID crisis, I believe global central banks moved back into that mostly autonomous mode and failed to see the potential strength of the US economy - driving foreign currency values and debt markets crazy. With Trump's second term "locked up," the data shows the money supply activity and expectations have changed (upward). The recent rate decreases by the US Fed were in the wrong direction. Now that money supply activity is moving aggressively to the upside, I think the US Fed will aggressively change its direction and begin to raise rates in early 2025 (or maybe even before the end of 2024). This video attempts to show you why I believe an Anomaly Event is very likely before January 2025 and why I believe the US Fed is currently unprepared for what will likely come in early 2025 with Trump's inauguration. If this trend continues, the Fed will be forced to fight inflationary trends again aggressively, which will most likely put extreme pressure on global credit/debt markets. As a trader/investor - this should present some great opportunities for skilled traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
TVC:DJILong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-14 : Temp Bottom In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to continue to flag sideways and slightly higher after finding support in early trading. Watch my video in detail. I go into a lot of longer-term price pattern detail and discuss the post-election setup of my Anomaly Event expectation. As I see the markets right now, they have moved, and continue to move in a direction that is likely to present a very real moderate crisis event over the next 3 to 6+ months. The stronger US Dollar is very likely to put pressure on foreign markets/debt related to the "carry trade" that was abundant before and after COVID. The Trump win is sending the markets into a Super-Predator mode (maybe I'll create a new video about this), where global markets, central banks, and global financial institutions may be at risk related to their long-term debt positions. At this point, The SPY and the QQQ will likely slide into a consolidation phase (a type of FLAGGING related to the broader Excess Phase Peak pattern) over the next 3+ days. Then, I expect the Anomaly Event to start to take shape and for the SPY/QQQ to begin a downward price trend. Gold and Silver are struggling to find a bottom as the US Dollar continues to rally. Don't expect any relief for metals as along as the US Dollar is rallying like this. This is a predatory shift related to global assets and Gold/Silver are going to stay weaker for as long as this shift continues. BTCUSD may rally up to $108k~120k if my research is correct. BTCUSD is in a "rally to the ultimate high" mode based on a very large Weekly Excess Phase Peak pattern. Remember, everything you need to know is already on the price chart. You just have to learn to identify these patterns and spend some time looking around at various intervals to figure out what is going to happen next. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
500% gains SGMO BUY/HOLD swing trade setup🔸Hello traders, today let's review 3days price chart for SGMO. Previously One of the titans of the biotech industry then fell out of grace and dumped 95% off the highs from the prior distribution range. 🔸Currently decent recovery off the lows and also we got bullish liquidity gaps protecting downside below 1.00 USD. currently trading near 2.50 USD, however this is also heavy resistance so expecting decent pullback to pickup liquidity below before the rally resumes. 🔸Recommended strategy bulls: Bulls wait for pullback to complete near 1.00 USD. The target for the bulls is re-test of mid of the multiyear distribution range at 5-6.00 USD, so this is 500-600% gains from the recommended entry price at 1.00 USD. Keep in mind, this is a swing trade setup also a 500%+ move in biotech industry may take a while to complete, so this is a setup for patient BUY/HOLD traders. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NASDAQ:SGMOLong
by ProjectSyndicate
13
GOLD WAVE 4 UNDERWAY final top 3200The chart posted ahs been my work and view of GOLD we topped into major wave 3 at the higher targets of 2824 plus or minus 50 . I turned rather bearish at 2763. We are now in the pullback and will post details for wave 4 low this will mark a nice bottom and we will see the LAST BULL MARKET WAVE UP into 3200 from this point I see a 1980 top and then The major crash similar to 1980 to 1982 . BTW I made my first windfall into the 1982 low in gold and silver at 26 yrs old I feel rather strong as to the similarities Regan =Trump
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by wavetimer
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-13 : Consolidation PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Consolidation pattern. I believe the SPY will continue to attempt to form a "rolling top" pattern over the next few days and attempt to move into my Anomaly event over the next 15+ days. This Anomaly event is likely to prompt a fairly strong downward trend related to the recent post-election rally. I believe Gold and Silver MAY HAVE found the ultimate low. It sure looks like Gold and Silver are attempting to base with a near-perfect Excess Phase Peak pattern Ultimate Low setup. Time will tell. If gold and silver fall further, the rallying of the US dollar will likely be the cause. I'm watching BTCUSD for a toping formation as I spent quite a bit of time going over the dual Excess Phase Peak pattern in BTCUSD. This is very interesting because it aligns with Fibonacci Price Theory very cleanly. Today, it seems traders can kind of take a break from the markets. If my analysis is correct, today will be a fairly quiet Consolidation day - where price attempts to trade in a bit of a sideways price mode - searching for the next big move. Pay attention to the BTCUSD chart where I highlight the 13:00 to 15:00 ET Flag Apex time. It appears BTCUSD may move into a volatile price phase near this time - possibly associated with some news or event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
Chart you should be interested atThis scenario I shared took time and multiple scenarios from EW In the end, this is the best scenario And in my opinion, you could see how the high-risk markets started to pump That usually happens in the 5th wave of the bigger markets like sp500 etc... You can call that liquidity sharing It happens in the 5th to create as much FOMO as possible + bring liquidity to the market I still hold most of my positions in crypto and some stocks . About the analysis I shared . The one notice is It could go more up than the targets The targets I used are W5=W1 If you use W5=0.618,0.78 of W3 You will get other possible targets I am not hiding a secret here Those are kinda basics in EW or Fibo trading but most people forget about it I am not saying get out of the market I will never say such a thing What I will say is get ready for the next opportunity Dont burn your profits
CME_MINI:ES1!
by rerezz
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-12 : Top/Resistance PatternToday's video is filled with great content. Near the end of the video, I review the 11 SPDR sectors related to my deep research into my Anomaly price pattern. Right now, I see the markets as very over-extended (overbought). I believe the markets will attempt to contact over the next 15-20+ days - setting up a base/bottom before a very late-stage Santa Rally sets up. I've been very busy over the past few day and have a family member in the hospital right now. So, I'll be away from my PC for a bit today. Remember, protect capital at all times. I've been getting messages from people suggesting some traders are trying to go ALL-IN on some of these bigger price moves. My suggestion more than three weeks ago (and even right now), is you should be in 85% CASH unless you can take the LUMPS related to trading through a hotly contested election event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
SPY S&P 500 ETF End of the Year Price Target If you haven`t bought the recent dip on SPY: Now with Goldman Sachs lowering U.S. recession odds from 20% to 15% and raising their 2024 year-end S&P 500 target to 6000 from 5600, the outlook for the market appears increasingly optimistic. The reduced recession risk suggests stronger economic stability, and the upward revision in the S&P target points to continued growth potential. Given these factors, I agree that a year-end price target of 600 on SPY is achievable.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-11: Gap Potential In Trend ModeHappy Veterans Day. Thanks to all the current and past service members who have dedicated so much time and effort to protect all of us from the evil in the world. If you have anyone in your family that has served in the military, please take a moment to call and thank them for their service today. As today is a Federal holiday, I expect the markets to be somewhat muted in terms of trends. We are still seeing BTCUSD rally higher as the Trump win delivers a clear mandate related to global crypto/blockchain opportunities. We are still dealing with a market in a post-election rally phase. I believe this rally phase will diminish over the next 5 to 7+ days and move into the early stages of my Anomaly phase. My research suggests the US and global markets are likely to move into a consolidation phase before attempting to move into a very late phase Santa Rally. So, at this point, with the SPY breaching 600 in pre-market trading, I would suggest traders start to PULL PROFITS and prepare for what I believe will be a moderate consolidation of price over the next 5-7+ trading days. Gold and Silver are still FLAGGING in an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. This is currently a bearish price trend - attempting to break higher to move into a rally to Phase #3 (consolidation). We could see some big price rotation today if Gold and Silver break above the FLAGGING trend. Buckle up. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures : Bullish. Breakout was strong with follow through and I have a measured move target to 6400+ and a trend line that runs through 6200. Even if we get a pullback, the first one will most likely be bought and we retest 6050. What would the bears need to make this the ultimate bull trap? One giant bear bar that closes below 5850 could do it but how likely is that? It’s absolutely reasonable to not buy into this madness and wait for bears to come around. I would be surprised if we closed 2024 above 6000. Quote from last week: comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax. comment : Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play) bull case: With 6000 my bullish targets were met but this does not look like it’s reversing anytime soon. If bulls keep it above 5850, we are free to go up to 6100/6150. A measured move from last week up gives us 5300 and I even have a measured move target at 6500ish from the August rally but that is obviously very far fetched for now. Invalidation is below 5850. bear case: Bears have nothing as of now. The rally last week was strong enough to expect more upside and bears could not trade more than a bar below the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. The best they can hope for is that the bull trend line above us, holds and market does not go much above 6050. My bullish targets were met with 6000 but the market obviously broke strong enough above it. Bears have no decent reason to sell this right now. Invalidation is above 6100. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830. → Last Sunday we traded 5758 and now we are at 6025. Well, at least I was not bearish. short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bear lines, adjusted bull trend line and added bull channel
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2
Weekly S&P ProyectionSince the market did not correct as expected, this opens up the possibility for a new period of euphoria. As show in the graph this has happened before from the year 2020 to 2022. Price is typically considered to not follow a normal distribution, therefore using one to estimate if price is over extended has its flaws. This is because the true distribution of a security is a multinomial distribution, where price can either go up, down or stay equal. The reason price behaves in such an odd manner is because price, has 2 unknown probabilities. Such probabilities can be calculated for the past, but not for the future. These are the probability of a price increase, and the probability of price staying the same, consequently the probability of price decreasing will be 1 minus the sum of the two previous probabilities. The value of such probabilities also fluctuates, and is determined by the market. When a market becomes overexcited, the probability of price increasing is closer to 1 than it's other counter probabilities. When this happens, a normal model no longer becomes suitable for estimating the limits of the distribution. If one has a multinomial distribution, thought of as a graph with nodes in a shape of a 3D tree, where each node has a relationship with 3 subsequent nodes. Where each relationship carries one of the probabilities mentioned before (with no repetitions). Starting with 1 initial node, then 4 then 16 … previous+previous*3n. One is able to create a mental map of true, the price action distribution. From these, one could calculate new limits, by using bootstrapping. However, since the computational power of such algorithm is complex, we can use the mean returns indicator to evaluate the trend and see that currently the trend is positive. This would mean that the probability of increasing is most likely also closer to one. If the mean returns were at 0 then the probability of price staying the same would be closer to one, and if it's below zero the same is true for a downtrend. Currently, the trend is positive, and not close to the theoretical limits of price action. This means that the probability of seeing a skewed distribution in the future are relatively high. However, if you still use a normal distribution to estimate the limits, then price is due for a correction. Only time will tell, as over excitement can move markets past their technical limits, and that is something that will always be a flaw in any technical approach to model price action.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DarkMessiah777
Scinarios for $SPX till the election year ends Bearish daily candle on Friday 25th Oct but watching RSI signals its showing some support to the up-trend line from Aug low . This setup suggested continuation upward trend up to next week and election week then signal can be more clear!. Above 5855 is bulish entry and below 8750 is bearish one. 6000 target still valid but i will recommend 5920 to take profit for downplay 5640 is last support which is related to FED pivot cutting . good luck
SP:SPXLong
by WinnerTrader99
Hey SPYLOVERS ! Enjoy the Bull Ride !!!! Election Week and Interest Rate Cuts Did Not Disappoint Us at All The truth is, it was a very difficult week to predict price movements. However, out of the two possible scenarios I shared last week, Scenario #1 was the winner, and it was the one I had the most confidence in! At this moment, the price is in "no man's land," meaning there is no historical price data on the chart where we can find a level for the price to hold or replicate its movement. In this case, I believe that, from here on, the price will move based on upcoming economic news or as we approach the date when President-elect Donald Trump will officially become the President of the United States (POTUS). Let's enjoy this bull run that is happening—these are important times for the country, and we need to take advantage of those swings! Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis. See you next week!
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 598.24 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 583.97 Safe Stop Loss - 606.52 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
How to PREDICT MARKETS! Tops and BottomsIn this video, I go over the following in great detail: Predicting Markets with Williams %R, RSI, and MACD Predicting market movements can be challenging, but combining the Williams %R, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicators can provide powerful insights for traders. Williams %R measures the current closing price relative to the high-low range over a specific period, helping identify overbought or oversold conditions. RSI gauges the speed and change of price movements, also indicating overbought or oversold levels. MACD analyzes the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price, identifying potential buy or sell signals. By using these three indicators together, traders can: Confirm Trends: When all three indicators align, it strengthens the signal for a potential trend continuation or reversal. Identify Entry and Exit Points: Overbought or oversold signals from these indicators can help pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Reduce False Signals: Combining multiple indicators can help filter out false signals, increasing the reliability of predictions.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by RonnieV29
4
SUPER STOCKS 2023 notes & issues for POSiTiONiNG there are stocks driven by MARKET .. meaning float is out in the public that normally has a DRUNK price action with gaps and erratic volume there are issues with an assigned Specialist that can TRADE or CROSS huge volume without moving the price or go beyond a range RANGE highlighted ones have been decided by both the MARKET and the MARKET MAKER best of both worlds where artificial price meets the wisdom of PUBLiC Vanguard holds most or is the CUSTODY of most issues Citadel & the gang of 3 manages the FLOAT FUNDS are public PUBLIC is barometer for entry or exit of Sovereign and Trust Fund babies on a 3 5 7 10 year cycle determined by the FED's cost of printing borrowinng and lending note: Market Cap is dated June 22, 2022 ... Bottom are of MARKETS
AMEX:SPY
by senyor
11