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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

SP 500 head n shoulder and cup n handle ?? The chart posted can be counted two ways if a bullish move is about to start First I want to express that the cycles are only holding up till feb 12/13 .So I can count this decline as wave 2 in the 5 waves up forming But the target 6128 was perfect math in which wave a x 1,618 = wave c for wave B top if the bearish count is the right one it would have more downside and it would drop 5861 plus or minus 2 then a bigger rally. But lets talk about this being wave 2 down wave 3 of 5 of 5 would see the rally from today low advance to two targets and both should be within 3 pts First 6183 is where wave 3 is .618 of wave 1 second is 6235 plus or minus 3 I would be VERY CAUTIOUS and look for 6183 The sox index is now ending my first 5 waves down in the bear market in SOX=SMH we should now see a weak ABC rally back to 248/252 . The forecast in SOX was PERFECT and has much much more downside this year. IN the QQQ we should now see a rally 531 alt 537Best of trades WAVETIMER
AMEX:SPY
by wavetimer
SPY Will Collapse! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 607.93 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 596.16 Recommended Stop Loss - 614.42 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-27 : Consolidation PatternToday is an incredible day in my world. I have been warning of a major peak/top near Jan 20-23 for more than 45+ days. I have continued to warn traders of a major top/peak near the Inauguration and how I believe the markets would suddenly shift downward - targeting the Feb 9-11 Deep-V bottom. All of my predictive analysis is based on Gann, Tesla (Energy frequency, amplitude, vibration) and Fibonacci research. The reason I state this is because I want you to start thinking of price action in terms of energy expulsion and consolidation. Price is the ultimate indicator. My research proves we can attempt to predict future price moves (tops, bottoms, strength, weakness, and others) with a moderate degree of accuracy. As I continue to expand my research, tools, and resources, I will continue to improve my analysis/predictive capabilities. To me, this is very exciting. Today, I would expect the markets to consolidate in a fairly wide/volatile range. Gold and Silver will likely continue to try to recover/rally out of these flagging/pennant formations. Silver is set in more of a range-bound price channel, whereas Gold is clearly moving into a Pennant/Flag setup. BTCUSD appears to have broken the EPP Flag channel and should attempt to move down to GETTEX:92K over the next 5+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
As Goes January So Goes the YearI have written and talked about this statistical superstition born out of trading almanacs of the "January Effect" which proposes that the month of January's direction (a green bar or a red bar) will determine the final close of the year as a whole. I plugged the data into a spreadsheet this year mid-January to get the updated statistic and for the last 97 years this adage has held true 68% of the time. Like all statistics when studying markets "nothing is 100%" but it is safe to say "more often than not" this is true. The January 2025 Monthly open is -3.03% from the Friday close... SPY is going to open -2.19% as of writing this morning. We still have a whole week of trading days left in January to see how 2025 will MOST PROBABLY play out. There's a lot of "reasons" talk this morning about some Chinese AI being the culprit of the selloff. I never take heed of the need for the media to publish digestible stories to give such reasons: they are never tradable prior to the event they claim and each is a one-off so knowing the "reason" (if even true) is totally worthless for making money. The more logical answer according to price which is far more actionable to traders is the failed breakout last Friday. While SPY made a new All Time High the Weekly itself failed to close to confirm it. Not following through on such a move is a clear bearish signal going into a weekend. Now THAT is a much better "reason" to be focused on this week (and every time it happens in the future).
AMEX:SPY
by norok
3
SPY Analysis: Testing All-Time Highs with Weakening Momentum Testing / Surpassed ATH MACD 4 HR Crossing down at red arrow. RSI 4 HR Crossing down from overbought 1 HR MFI dropping 1 HR RSI dropping down. MACD No signal. 30 Minute MACD looks to be losing momentum downward possible reversal back towards the upside 30 Minute RSI at 50 no potential for upside or downside this is nuetral. 30 minute MFI is still high but not overbought could be a downward from. 15 Minute MACD Crossing up could signal a move upward 15 Minute RSI was close to oversold and is now pushing up. 15 Minute MFI was close to oversold now pushing back up 5 Minute 50/100 EMA: 50 EMA crossing into 100 EMA could be signaling a short but price has bounced on it a few times now. Despite the short-term signs of a bounce (15-minute and 5-minute signals), the broader timeframes point to weakening momentum and a lack of sustained buying pressure. The 4-hour MACD and RSI both turning downward from overbought conditions align with a potential reversal. As SPY fails to gain further traction above the ATH, it could start to roll over, targeting lower levels. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $590 aligns with a key support zone, making it a logical target for a pullback. Additionally, any increase in volatility (VIX) or further weakness in momentum indicators would likely accelerate the move toward this level. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: The ATH and current price zone (~607–610). Support: The $600 psychological level and $590 Fibonacci retracement. I’ll be monitoring the price action closely for confirmation of this bearish thesis. If SPY loses the short-term EMAs and momentum fails to recover, a move to $590 becomes increasingly likely. Let me know your thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wtfguysgetout
6
Why Blind Index Investing Could Be Costing You Thousands?!Index-based investing has been one of the most popular ways to grow a long-term portfolio for decades. Today, it has become even more accessible and favored, offering a safer foundation for investing and generally carrying lower risk compared to portfolios composed of individual stocks. For someone like me, a technical analyst, index investing isn't exactly an adrenaline rush. Under societal pressure, I decided to test a few hacks and dive deeper into it ;) I set out to compare three of the most popular U.S. index ETFs – SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), and IWM (Russell 2000) – and analyze how to implement a brief technical analysis into index selection could influence long-term results. Starting in 2005, I "invested" $1,000 every quarter, completing a total of 81 test purchases. Each time, I selected the index that technical analysis suggested was in the strongest position. If done strictly and consistently, there were often situations where all three indices had just reached their all-time highs. In those moments, I had to make a choice. Technical analysis is not just about drawing lines on a chart – experience, market intuition, and behavioral patterns of the price play a big role here. My Test and Strategy The goal was to compare the following three U.S. index ETFs: - SPY (S&P 500) - QQQ (Nasdaq 100) - IWM (Russell 2000) Test conditions: - Start date: 2005 - Investment period: 81 quarters - Mandatory quarterly investment: $1,000 - Index selection: Based on technical analysis and market intuition. Distribution of trades during the test period: - SPY: 35 times - QQQ: 31 times - IWM: 15 times The chart illustrates SPY, QQQ, and Russell with blue arrows marking purchase points. Results of the Experiment Performance of my strategy: - +344% return - Invested: $81,000 - Final value: $360,000 Comparison indices (each quarter regular purchases): - SPY: +233% (final value: $272,000) - QQQ: +579% (final value: $552,000) - IWM: +128% (final value: $186,000) My strategy outperformed SPY and IWM because I focused on selecting the ETFs in the strongest technical condition at the time. While QQQ delivered higher absolute returns, my diversified approach offered competitive returns with lower risk and more stable outcomes. Key Takeaways 1. Diversity and Stability: Risk Mitigation and Return Optimization The goal wasn't just maximum returns but also reducing risk and adopting a smarter approach. While QQQ had the highest returns, remember that it is heavily concentrated in the technology sector, making it riskier. Back in 2005, it wouldn't have been easy to predict that QQQ would outperform. A technical analysis strategy allows for risk diversification by choosing the strongest index at any given time, delivering significant returns while maintaining diversity and stability. 2. Thoughtful Regularity Outperforms Blind Regularity Strict quarterly investing avoids the biggest mistake investors fear – timing the market. Regularity is crucial, but it needs to be thoughtful. The tests showed that blind purchasing could be costly: for instance, regular SPY purchases would have left $100,000 on the table, and IWM even more. My strategy allowed selecting the strongest index at each point, yielding significantly better returns. 3. Wrong Index Choice Can Be Costly Had I chosen only IWM throughout the period, my return would have been just +128%. This clearly shows the importance of not sticking to one index but instead evaluating regularly to find the one with the greatest potential at any given time. How to Choose the Best Index: Follow my Newsletter to Guide You One of many of the topics of this newsletter (You will find it here, in the profile section, visiting my "website") will be sharing my monthly and quarterly top lists of indices, making regular purchases easier for you. The test proved that sticking to one index isn’t the best way forward – but which one should you choose? That’s where the monthly top list comes in. I firmly believe this strategy and approach have significant potential to help investors make smarter and more confident decisions. That’s why I’m starting a newsletter, where one of the many topics will be sharing this list regularly: - The technically strongest indices for investing. - Explanations of why a particular index is technically more attractive than others. Conclusion My research proves that technical analysis and understanding of charts can be powerful tools for long-term index investing. Regularity, fact-based decisions, and risk diversification help achieve optimal results. Your portfolio deserves better decisions. Don’t waste time analyzing indices yourself. All the best, Vaido
AMEX:SPY
by VaidoVeek
1
This is a no Brainer for you noobs - check itWhat up? how is everyone doing the almost end of January w a new Admin? one things i do wish is that Robinhood will collab with @TradingView does anyone have info on this? Why are the holding back? follow along... i swing only SPY 500 options- 7 years in training, a year before the covid 19. i buy calls or buy puts overnight, easy- up or down? 1. The week, before this weeks volume was pretty decent I must say.- this held us up. 2. I do like continuation patterns. 3. $ 605.00 is in the cards for next week of 1/27 - 1/31 4. With the month closing on Friday the 31, we may even see a low touching that $ 600.00 5. Therefore we are looking for bounces on either side. 6. I kind of like $ 600.00 to confirm there are buyers on that area of support. For our continuation of an upmarket trend. 7. Although volume and candlestick are key to watch around 605. ⛳️ do we get a birdie or a par this week? -- - leave a comment or evaluation below.
AMEX:SPY
by KommonStock
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-24 : CRUSH patternToday's CRUSH pattern should resolve as a very big and very volatile price move. Based on my experience with CRUSH patterns, I believe today's move will be to the downside. The current trend is bullish/up (over the past 3+ days) and the SPY has just closed at a new closing price ATH. The QQQ is still below ATH levels and is moving cleanly in an EPP Flagging channel. I believe the SPY will stall out and revert downward today - essentially touching the new ATH levels yesterday, then rolling downward into my 1-20 through 1-23 topping pattern. Gold and Silver are moving strongly higher today as metals finally start to hedge against global risk factors. Get ready, I see metals moving much higher over the next 60 to 90+ days. BTCUSD has moved into a dual flagging pattern that I believe will resolve to the downside by about 9AM PT (12 noon ET). If my analysis is correct, this breakdown in BTCUSD could be the catalyst for a broader market downturn. It sure looks like today is going to be a great day for traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
4
S&P500 - Preparing For The Final Bullrun!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is still heading higher: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Although the S&P500 has been creating new all time highs for the past couple of months, charts are clearly telling us that this bullrun is not over yet. We already saw two textbook cycles of +90% each and during 2025, we will see the completion of the third and final bullrun. Levels to watch: $7.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by basictradingtv
27
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-23-25 : Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern suggests the markets will attempt to hold near recent support while attempting to determine trend. I view it as move of an indecisive day - looking to see if the markets can break to new all-time highs or if the markets have reached the top I've been discussing. In my opinion, today will be a pause/consolidation day in the SPY/QQQ - leading to the big CRUSH pattern tomorrow. Gold and Silver are under quite a bit of pressure this morning. The metals pattern is a BOTTOM pattern. So, I expect this selling in metals to be reflective of issues that will drive the SPY/QQQ downward tomorrow (the CRUSH pattern) and likely result in a moderate downward trend in the SPY/QQQ over the next 2 weeks. Metals will recover and try to move higher as metals continues to hedge against global risks. BTCUSD is moving downward - trying to break below the Flag Support level of the EPP pattern. I believe tomorrow will be a pivotal day for the markets and today will be a fairly consolidated day overall. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
SPX 500 Returns to All-Time HighsAfter two days of Trump’s official inauguration at the White House, the market maintains a short-term optimistic bias. This has allowed the price to rise by more than 1.5% as expectations grow for low-tax policies that could potentially boost domestic consumption in the United States. Steady Trend: The growing wave of buying positions has brought focus back to the long-term trend that has persisted in the stock index for several months. However, the price will now need to confront the resistance zone at all-time highs to confirm the bullish bias in the coming sessions. RSI: At the moment, the RSI line maintains a significant upward slope and marks levels above the neutral zone at 50. However, it is approaching the inflection point near the overbought zone marked by the 70 level of the indicator. RSI oscillations near this zone could begin to trigger bearish corrections in the actual resistance as an imbalance of long positions starts to emerge. Key Levels: 6.082: The most important short-term resistance level, coinciding with all-time highs and the upper Bollinger Band. Consistent oscillations above this level could set a new record high and reinforce the formation of the long-term bullish trend. 5.963: A nearby support level, located in the middle of the current small lateral range, which could serve as a resting point for future bearish corrections in price. 5.847: The definitive support level, where the latest market lows coincide with the barrier marked by the 100-period moving average. Persistent price oscillations below this level could jeopardize the current long-term bullish bias and pave the way for a fresh wave of selling pressure. By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
DJI a FAILED 5th Wave and right shoulder Head n shoulder TOP The chart now can be seen as A 5th wave Failure . as we have entered the 6 spiral window. the last 5 /6 spirals called the TOP to the day major turn 11/29 to 12/5 in the dji it was 11/29 and the MATH was near perfect . Now what ?? the drop in my view was wave 4 of the Supercycle peak . since then cycles turned up and the 5th wave started . based on the 80 day cycle due mid dec . so why am I calling this a Failed 5th wave reason is the last low was one of the longest days down in US history and breaking the long term trendline support The High Hit the trendline at the peak going back to the sept 2nd 1929 high . The fact that the sp 500 is now the only index to print a new record high is a warning . I started to move into puts on friday jan 17th and moved to a 110 % long puts today at 6100 in the spx cash and 533 in the QQQ , The market can still trace out a small 4 nad 5 and 4.5 and the DJI could still print a minor new High but today and this week are a grouping of 6 spirals Golden ratio . the DJI has only rallied to almost .786 the drop 44370 target I started buying puts at 43800. 2025 is a very bearish cycle see my forecast DEC 8th 2024 . Best of trades WAVETIMER
AMEX:DIA
by wavetimer
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-22-25: BreakAway PatternToday's BreakAway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move aggressively away from yesterday's closing price level. I do believe the markets are over-extended to the upside. Which is why I continue to warn traders that we may be nearing a top/peak price level and to prepare for a rollover type of top in the SPY/QQQ. My broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would top near Jan 20-21. I believe we are seeing a type of carryover momentum move to the upside as a result of optimism related to the Inauguration. Now that the Inauguration is complete, I believe the markets will start to "resettle" into reality. The SPY/QQQ should move into a rolling type of top pattern over the next 3-5+ days, then trend downward into my Feb 9-11 DEEP-V Base/Bottom. Gold and Silver are likely to move higher in an attempt to hedge against global risks and uncertainty. BTCUSD is moving through the current EPP pattern as the flagging breaks down. This should prompt a move back to the 92k level, then a brief pause before trending further downward. Remember, the markets are likely to stall out through H1:2025. Get ready for volatile price swings before we move back into trending near the end of 2025. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
$SPY hold of $580-588 region sets up long to $614-630AMEX:SPY looks like it's formed a low for the short term when it failed the H&S pattern. From here, I think it's likely that we fall back into the $580-588 to scare everyone into thinking there's more downside, but if that region holds, it'll set up a trigger long all the way up to the $614-$630 region. I think the move higher should play out by mid-February (again if that $580-588 region holds). If it fails, then we're looking back down at the lower support level $545. If we do end up going higher, I think that $630 region will be the short term top and it'll set up a move down to $545 before we move higher.
AMEX:SPYLong
by benjihyam
16
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 1-21-25 : Cycle Top FormationThis video highlights my cycle research and why I believe the US markets are very close to a market top right now. My research suggests the US markets would rally into the Inauguration and reach a peak near Jan 20-22. I believe the markets are very close to a market top right now, and there is limited opportunity to the upside currently. I believe there is a bigger opportunity for a pullback in the SPY target 578 to 585 (roughly), where I believe the SPY will find support. Gold & Silver should continue to price in additional risks and rally over the next 3+ weeks. I believe Gold will target $2880, then stall a bit before rallying up above $3000. Silver should target $33.50 to $34.25 at the same time. Bitcoin continues to be range-bound. At this time, I believe the most logical outcome for BTCUSD is a breakdown attempt until the US settles on deregulation policies. Let's see how this plays out over the next few days/weeks. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1