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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Bearish & Boring? Maybe. Profitable? Definitely.Bearish & Boring? Maybe. Profitable? Definitely. | SPX Market Analysis 12 Mar 2025 You know that feeling when you wake up and wonder if you’re stuck in a time loop? Yeah, me too. For what feels like the hundredth time, I’m reporting that the bear move is grinding lower. The difference? The profits keep stacking up—so I’m not complaining. Yesterday’s rally was supposedly triggered by Canada pausing tariffs, but let’s be real—this market is looking for any excuse to bounce. Yet, the overall trend remains the same: a slow, stair-stepping drop. Based on this drop-pause-drop rhythm, I suspect we’re entering the next pause before another leg down. My bear boots are full, my trade allocations are set, and I’m waiting for two tranches to exit profitably before considering any new plays. Until SPX clears 5850, the bullish setups stay on the shelf. This is the good kind of waiting—the kind where the market moves for me instead of me chasing it. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: If it feels like Groundhog Day, you’re not alone. The bearish grind continues, slowly pushing lower, delivering small but steady wins. Unlike a panic-driven crash, this move is unfolding in slow motion, keeping traders on edge, wondering if a rally is lurking around the corner. 📌 A Market Looking for an Excuse to Bounce Yesterday’s rally attempt was supposedly fueled by news that Canadian tariffs were being paused, but let’s be honest—this market is desperate for any reason to move higher. The reality? The larger bearish structure remains intact. Every bounce so far has been short-lived. The market keeps following a drop-pause-drop pattern. We’re likely entering the next "pause" phase before another move down. 📌 My Trading Approach—Locked, Loaded, and Waiting Right now, my bear boots are full, meaning I’m not adding new positions until my current tranches exit profitably. Two tranches are set to exit with profits by the end of the week. If we push lower or continue sideways, I’ll take my exits and reassess. Until SPX clears 5850, I won’t even think about bullish setups. 📌 What’s Next? The Good Kind of Waiting There’s no need to chase trades or force new entries. I’m simply letting my plan play out. If the market continues its slow-motion decline, I’ll collect my wins, reload selectively, and wait for the next prime setup. For now, I sit back and enjoy the show—because this time, the market is working for me, not against me. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2008, Porsche trapped hedge funds in one of the greatest short squeezes in history, briefly making it the most valuable company in the world—all thanks to a secretive stock manoeuvre. 💡 The Lesson? Markets don’t just move up and down—they can also turn traders inside out. The wrong bet at the wrong time can be devastating… unless, of course, you have a system that keeps you on the right side of the trade. 🚀
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
SPY S&P 500 etf Oversold on the RSI ! 2025 Price Target ! The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is flashing a major buy signal, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sitting at 28.33 — firmly in oversold territory. Historically, every time SPY has entered oversold levels on the RSI, institutional buyers have stepped in aggressively, driving sharp rebounds in the following weeks and months. The last time SPY dipped below the 30 RSI threshold was during market pullbacks in 2022 and 2023 — both of which were followed by significant rallies as institutions capitalized on discounted valuations. The current setup is no different. With earnings growth stabilizing, inflation cooling, and the Federal Reserve signaling a potential shift toward rate cuts in the second half of the year, the backdrop for a recovery is aligning perfectly. Technically, SPY is also approaching key support levels that have held strong in past market corrections. The combination of an oversold RSI and strong institutional appetite at these levels creates a compelling case for a bounce. My price target for SPY by year-end is $640, representing over 15% upside from current levels. With sentiment stretched to the downside and technical indicators flashing green, SPY looks primed for a sharp and sustained rebound. Now could be the perfect time to position for the next leg higher.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
2
SPX500 D1 | Strong bearish downtrendSPX500 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,653.89 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 5,768.84 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance and beyond the descending trendline. Take profit is at 5,390.20 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 12, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ceasefire Proposal in Ukraine 🇺🇦🇷🇺: Ukraine has expressed willingness to accept a month-long ceasefire proposal, leading to a surge in the euro to five-month highs. This development has introduced volatility in European and U.S. equity markets, influenced by ongoing U.S. tariff plans. ​ 🇺🇸🇨🇦 U.S. Tariff Increases on Canadian Imports 🇺🇸🇨🇦: President Trump has threatened to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50%, escalating trade tensions and contributing to a deepening stock market sell-off. This move has raised concerns about inflation and economic growth, affecting investor confidence. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Wednesday, March 12: 📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET) 📈:The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services, serving as a key indicator of inflation. Forecast: +0.2% month-over-month​ Previous: +0.3% month-over-month​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
1
S&P 500 is gearing up for a drop to $348.11 or even $218.26.SP:SPX AMEX:SPY are gearing up for a potential crash. Markets and indices seem aligned for a downturn. What will trigger it? Hard to say, but watching the stock and crypto markets, it certainly looks that way. My expectations for SPX / SPY: ➖ Fibonacci 161.80% targets have been reached. ➖ Key downside levels: $348.11 and $218.26. TVC:DXY The dollar index is leaning towards growth for now. I think it might follow this scenario. Let’s keep an eye on how things develop.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SergioRichi
4
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 11, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 10 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support! Need any other charts daily, comment on this.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
1
SPY: Deep Pullback or the Opportunity of the Year?The market has spoken, and SPY has taken a deeper dive, breaking key levels and raising the big question: Will it keep dropping, or are we looking at the best opportunity of 2025? Seasoned traders know that sharp declines aren’t just moments of panic—they are moments of opportunity. With SPY reaching 558, 545, and even 525, this could be the perfect setup for a strategic, tiered entry ahead of a potential rebound. Key Recovery Levels: 🔹 570: First profit target, capturing an initial bounce. 🔹 590: A second take-profit zone if the momentum continues upward. 🔹 607: If recovery gains traction, this could be the level where many look to lock in gains. The market may continue to dip, but every drop presents a potential golden opportunity. What looks risky today could turn into the trade of the year tomorrow. As always, risk management and disciplined execution are key. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risks, and each investor should conduct their own analysis and manage risk responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by Robert_V12
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-11-25: BreakAway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern offers a fairly strong potential the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find support today. I know I've been telling everyone the markets should find support and are seeking support for the past 3+ trading days. But, the SPY has recently crossed the 50% Fibonacci pullback level and the QQQ has recently crossed the 61.8% pullback level. These levels will act as moderate support. So, I'm urging traders to patiently wait out the early morning volatility. Today could be incredibly volatile while the markets attempt to hammer out critical support. BTCUSD has moved to consolidation lows and will likely attempt a moderate rally up to consolidation highs. This is another reason I believe the SPY/QQQ are attempting to base/bottom near current lows. Gold and silver have recovered from recent lows very aggressively and are moving into a CRUSH pattern. I believe that the CRUSH pattern will resolve to the upside for metals. At this point, I believe the markets are relatively well exhausted to the downside. But, we must let price be the ultimate dictator of trending and opportunity. Thus, it is essential to let the markets FLUSH OUT this potential base/bottom in early trading today before getting aggressive with any trades. Ultimately, we need to see the markets identify support in this downtrend. If we don't find any support before the end of this week, then we are going to see a very large downward price move that will invalidate many of my expectations, potentially leading to a very large breakdown in US/global markets. Buckle up. The markets are nearing the DO or DIE phase due to how these Excess Phase Peak patterns are playing out. I see support setting up and a base/bottom building. If I'm wrong, we'll see a continued downward price trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later. On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period. Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5). Other observations supporting this wave count: - Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3) - Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4) - Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1) While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last. Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well. Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction: 1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual. 2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak. The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24. CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st. So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday. If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ap769
3
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 11, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇯🇵🤝 Japan-U.S. Trade Discussions 🤝: Japanese Trade Minister Yoji Muto is visiting Washington from March 9–11 to engage in discussions with U.S. officials. The talks aim to strengthen economic ties and address trade concerns, including potential exemptions for Japanese exports from proposed U.S. tariffs. These negotiations could influence sectors such as automotive and steel, impacting market dynamics. 🇨🇳📊 China's National People's Congress (NPC) Developments 📊: The 2025 National People's Congress is underway in Beijing from March 5–11. Key economic targets and policy directions set during the NPC may affect global markets, including the U.S., especially in areas related to trade, technology, and foreign investment.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, March 11: 📄 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET) 📄:This report provides data on job openings, hires, and separations, offering a comprehensive view of the labor market's dynamics. Forecast: 7.71 million Previous: 7.6 million​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$1.51 to $3.25 casually DOUBLED while rest of the market crashes$1.51 to $3.25 casually DOUBLED today after being mentioned in chat many times Sweet catch on NASDAQ:HMR 👏🤑 All while the rest of the market continues to hits new lows on a big red day NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:GOOG Got to love these type of stocks AEON 1.26 - 1.33 (+5.5%) HMR 3.02 - 3.16 (+4.6%) Total profit today: +10.1% Nice profit today again while the rest of the market goes into deeper red. Bulletproof strategy delivers again, no matter the overall market conditions. Congrats! See you in the morning!
NASDAQ:HMR
by ProfitTradeRoom
Bearish Outlook for VX1!Bearish Post Description for TradingView Title: Bearish Outlook on VIX Futures - Time to Brace for a Pullback! Hey traders, take a look at this VIX Futures chart (CBOE Volatility Index - VX1 Futures) published by FairValueBuffet on TradingView (Mar 10, 2025, 20:58 UTC). The technicals are screaming caution, and here’s why: - Supply/Demand Zone Breakdown: We’ve hit a critical supply zone (highlighted in yellow) with a sharp spike, suggesting heavy selling pressure. The price action is showing rejection at this level, hinting at a potential reversal. - Moving Averages: The 18-week and 52-week SMAs are converging, with the price breaking below the shorter-term SMA, reinforcing bearish momentum. - Bearish Divergence: The RSI and Williams %R at the bottom show clear bearish divergence. Despite a price spike, the momentum indicators are declining, indicating weakening bullish strength. - Seasonality Indicator: The bottom-right seasonality chart (COT data for VX Futures) shows a historical tendency for volatility spikes around this time, often followed by a correction. With the VIX jumping to 24.700 and a volume of 137.66K, coupled with the bearish technical setup, I’m anticipating a pullback in the near term. Keep an eye on the 20.000 support level—failure to hold could see us testing lower grounds. Let’s stay cautious and consider short opportunities or hedging strategies! --- CBOE:VX1! CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY Bullish Case for S&P 500 - Fundamental Perspective While the VIX chart suggests short-term volatility, the broader S&P 500 presents a compelling bullish case based on fundamentals as of March 10, 2025. Here’s why we might see upside potential: - Economic Resilience: Recent data points to robust corporate earnings growth, with many S&P 500 companies exceeding Q4 2024 expectations. This earnings strength supports a sustained rally. - Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve has signaled a dovish stance, with potential rate cuts on the horizon. Lower interest rates typically boost equity valuations, especially for growth stocks in the S&P 500. - Gold and Bonds Correlation: The chart shows a dip in gold prices and bond yields stabilizing, which historically correlates with risk-on sentiment. This could drive capital back into equities, favoring the S&P 500. - Market Sentiment: Despite short-term volatility (as seen in the VIX), investor confidence remains high, supported by strong consumer spending and improving global trade conditions. Given these fundamentals, the S&P 500 could be poised for a bullish run, especially if volatility subsides and the 18-week SMA on the VIX chart starts to flatten. Consider long positions or adding exposure if the market holds key support levels. Stay tuned for confirmation! --- Note: This analysis is based on the provided chart and my knowledge up to March 10, 2025. For the latest updates or to validate these trends, I can perform a web search or analyze additional X posts if requested! Not Financial Advice
CBOE:VX1!
by FairValueBuffet
2
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 10, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 10 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91