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Spy500

TIME IN THE MARKET (a different perspective)Hello TradingView friends, Today I would like to discuss a topic many have heard of but few actually have indulge deep into. The phenomena is known as "Time in the Market". The chart we are currently looking at is on a Monthly time frame and I will be using 5 smooth moving averages. (red:20, purple:50, green:100, blue:200, white:300) There is a point on the chart, which I like to call the "hard reset" (it is defined with the white vertical line) and that is when the monthly candle touches the 300SMA. The reason I call it the "hard reset" is because once the market visits this moving average it doesn't visit it again for a long time. As a non-believer in the 16 year cycle theory I like to vision cycles from the 300SMA back to the 300SMA. Looking at the first "hard reset" we can see that we visited it again approximately 36 years later (73-09). For you to get a better perspective, I like to class any candle above the 100SMA (green) as "in a bull market" because every down trend/bear market that has occurred in between the 300SMA's have only been for a short period of time as it has held above the 50 month SMA (purple) before continuation. -A "hard reset" recovery. After the monthly candle visits the the 300SMA the markets first goal is to rally then recover the 200SMA (blue), rally again and recover the 100SMA before ultimately going on a lengthy multi-year bull run with soft landings in between. Diving deeper into the years between 1973 and 2000 we can observe one major crash which happened in 1987. This infamous crash known as "Black Monday" (purple vertical). It was the biggest one-day percentage drop in U.S. stock market history and even that crash bounced off the 50SMA, which in perspective is actually a "nothing burger". It didn't even hit the 100SMA and quickly continued on its trajectory. -What happened between 2000-2009? When looking at this void in time, it was a correction that took place over a period of 9 years and lasted from the top of the 27 year run to the 300SMA, which in my terminology is called the hard reset. It involved 2 major market crashes known as the DOT COM and GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. An extremely tough period of correction but needed to happen for the "hard reset" to occur. -So where are we today? I'd like to think we are just over half way through another 27 year-ish cycle (that is from the hard reset to the top), approximately 14 years ahead of the last "hard reset". During this period we have rallied and recovered the 200SMA and rallied again and recovered 100SMA (the covid19 crash). The covid19 crash was a swift but hard crash that helped us recover the 100SMA as support and shortly after, the market continued its rally. Funnily enough, the covid19 crash is (on a time factor) a worse crash than the 1987 crash considering it wasn't a lower percentage drop. -Using all of this data what can we obtain? I believe that using the factor of time we are not yet ready for a hard reset and that the market should naturally continue as time has not yet shown that we need this type of correction. Judging from the point that we are currently at I think we either bounce from the 50SMA, which we hit late last year, and continue (the red line) or we correct one more time and target the 100SMA then continue (green line). I personally would be extremely surprised that the 100SMA is targeted twice in such a short period and therefore continuation from here and a multi-year bull run seems like the utmost clear probability. Using all this data, I would conclude that this bear market due to time was/is our generations version of the 1987 Black Monday crash because it hit the 50SMA. This is technically again a "nothing burger" and would expect us to continue from here and further down the line target the 50SMA. I hope you enjoyed this read and would love to discuss your opinions on this. At the end of the day I don't have a crystal ball and can't predict the future but I like to dissect markets and obtain information. Have a great week and can't wait to see what happens. Much love.
SP:SPX
by Monovon
2
SP500 Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 SP500 Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Based on the data from VIX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 19.76%, down from 20.21% last week. This can be translated in +/- 2.74% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel TOP: 4188 BOT: 3965 The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at 82% with the last 20 years of data 71% with data since 2022 However, if we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the VIX( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be: 84% according to the last 20 years of data 79% according to the data since 2022 Overall we can see an increase in the probability chance, and at the same time more accurate with the current events. So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information: Currently there is a : 80% to touch the previous weekly high 26% to touch the previous weekly low At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see : 4H Timeframe: -13% Bearish Trend D Timeframe: +80% Bullish Trend W Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move: 2.85% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario 2.47% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
SPY full recovery incoming? A major macro move is coming for the stock market.I think this structure looks really good, has a solid volume profile, and best accounts for why the major resistance(Orange) was so easily taken back from my last update. we were just consolidating within the pattern. On a break up, I am looking for 435 and possibly a revisit the all time high. On a break down, I will looking for 351 again. Technically, since the trend is down and this is a continuation pattern, it would indicate 351 would be the next move. But I m honestly neutral on this structure for the time being. I'm going to digest this new information for a bit. This will have MAJOR implications for crypto in the medium to long term.I think in the short term, since we closed above major resistance, we are going to get continued upside to the 403-405 level to test the major trend line. This will help BTC and crypto in the short term be able to breath up to the 25.3k level. If it is sustained well enough, we could go higher(32k) but I am playing it level by level. I am going to sit on this new information for a bit to digest it
AMEX:SPY
by BTC-HONDA
SPDR S&P 500 - Conspicuous pattern tradingHere are some obvious trading patterns that SPY has been trading lately. In Cyan , we have a bear flag. The size of the flag channel matched the breakout. In dark blue , we have a failed bullish pennant. The size of the flag channel matched the breakout. By following the basic guidelines of the formation, anybody is likely to win. I have made a couple of successful trades by following the depicted patterns, but the one key thing I have learned is not to get greedy. This is in my new year's resolution, 2023 - a slow, steady but profitable growth. Hopefully, my publishment has brought you some insight if you hadn't already seen it, and you will start looking out for the next coming trade patterns to help with your trades. GLHF.
AMEX:SPY
by WampumSeeker
SPY bull flag break out.SPY along with the Dow Jones are in a very similar broadening trading wedge. They both have also recently broken out of a bull flag, also they have both entered above the 20 level in Stochastic RSI, (the Dow first). The Dow Jones also printed a bullish engulfing monthly candle back in Oct of last year just before breaking out of it's respective bull flag. History shows us that the monthly Stochastics are very powerful when entering this level and is usually followed by price action for months to come or the next few years. The broadening wedge indicates the moves up are getting more powerful and the pull backs more harsh. This will continue on until the trend breaks. But, when will it break??? I'm not sure of the timeframe, but I might have a clue. Let me explain... AS we can see, we have two breaks in the trend, highlighted by the two circles. The first one was at the very begging of the trend and the second could be at the middle (we don't know and it doesn't" matter) what is important are the breaks of the trend and the quick reversal back into it. As we can see on both occasions a breakdown happened but within 2 to 3 candles the price recovered. The theory is that this trends blow off top could puncture the top of the broadening trend line and then quickly break back down into it, which could then break the trend completely. So, just like the bottom breaks recovering quickly the upper break could lead to the complete breakdown fairly quickly. This also applies for the Dow Jones. The bull flag points to 720 pips for the SPY when measured from the pole. So, could this be the top in the Feb to March time of 2025? Only time will tell. Remember, non of this Financial or trading advice, please do your own diligence. Kind Regards WeAreSatoshi Stay blessed in 23!
AMEX:SPYLong
by WeAreSat0shi
5
SPY - Price Targets & Stop Loss📈 What’s up investors! 📉 Welcome back to another one of 💡“Mike’s Ideas”.💡 I post as I find signals… these signals are based on the personal rules I have built and follow in order to make up what I call the “SST Strategy”. Follow for more ideas in the future!! I have 4 levels marked and colour coded on the Chart. These levels are: ⚪ White = Entry Point 🔴 Red = Stop Loss 🟢 Green = 1.2:1 Risk Reward Ratio 🟡 Yellow = 1.5:1 Risk Reward Ratio 🔵 Blue = 2:1 Risk Reward Ratio 👀 So what are we looking at today…!!! 🚨( SPY ) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust🚨 The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
AMEX:SPYLong
by sststrategy
2
The Fake Out Break OutQuick post to those of you who've been following some of my ideas. I had previously drawn the similarity between now and 2008 in terms of chart patterns, but what's playing out seems to be much more like 1968 and 2001. Notice the double tops in green before the crash both had, which closely resembles what we're headed for now. These were also the starts of boom bust cycles happening in sets of 2. With this in mind, I'm adjusting to the 2001 timeline. My new PT is $265 which would hypothetically be at the end of August.
SP:SPXShort
by PlayerNonZero
1
SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 2.93% With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 65th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: *For calculations, I am using the data since 2022* Bullish: 2.64% movement Bearish: 2.47% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 24.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 4025 BOT: 3800 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 79.22% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high(already done) 26.76% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Daily timeframe indicates 53.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Weekly timeframe indicates 13.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Monthly timeframe indicates -13.33% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Short Term Trade: Short 3870The S&P 500 has made 3 consecutive lower highs on the hourly chart as we close the day around 3870. Throughout the day, the S&P 500 tested the orderflow pivot point around 3870 and failed to sustain volume above. With the lower high, we most likely will move much lower over the next few days. As we are still within a secular downtrend on the daily chart (as measured in both EMA, HMA, and ADX-based trend following systems), we fade the bounce here. A move above 3900 would invalidate this trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by David_Warren_Ellison
S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market LowerToday, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’. I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short). Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑 Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!) Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE) Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO) Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE) Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX) 1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊 *2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’ Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’ *2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’ Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’ 2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…* Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’ What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
SP:SPXShort
by kylemusserco
1
SPX Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: on the update of Dec. 21st, I expected that we had formed the bottom for wave (I) of c of Z of (B) and we were inside wave (II). Update: we formed a lower low on Dec. 22nd, meaning that we were early on the identification of wave (I) bottom. This is the first time I am not feeling very good about a count that I publish (I mean the hourly count, the general picture has been almost the same the whole 2022), but we just need to give it some time for more clarification. There are reasons for not liking this count, the most important of which is that the structure of wave (I) labeled in this way is not favorable. Also, wave c of (I) was very short for a wave C, wave V of a of (I) was short, and development of a wave (II) as a triangle is not usual. There are other possibilities that I can see on the chart, but for now I prefer to go with this one that wave (I) bottom is in and we are developing wave (II) of c of Z of (B) as a triangle. Note that it is also possible (lower probability in my opinion) that wave (II) is developing as a flat (in this case, we are in leg C of the flag which should develop as an impulse to the upside).
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by bamdadsalarieh