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Spy500

Volume gap on ESKeeping this one short and simple there is a nice volume gap above and we are at a decent support level. High volume green candles the past couple of weeks. With FOMC wouldn't be surprised to see a high volume green doji into a blast off near the top of the trendline. Could even see it breaking out of the trendline a bit getting people saying the bear market is officially over then slam. This is a mere guess I would not bank on this at all never financial advice. But interested to know you all's thoughts and feelings on what is coming next.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EZmoney24
SPY S&P 500 ETF Bullish Ahead of Midterm ElectionsWasn`t it strange to see META losing 25% and AMZN 20% in one week, yet the SPX S&P 500 still being bullish?! :) I told you in the previews chart, because of the Midterm Elections: In every country is the same, politicians in power try to keep the markets optimistic ahead of elections to get more votes, because the economy is doing great thanks to them. I wouldn`t be surprised to see the SPY S&P 500 ETF touch the psychological price of $400 days before the vote, while televisions talk about a potential reversal. So we still have 8 days of unexpected bullish market while the earnings of the companies reporting are lower. And don`t get frustrated to see that this was another bear market rally and the SPY will touch the $338 Pre-Lockdown level before Christmas. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
5
SPY Analysis (Mid-to-Late October)Below is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for the period of mid-to-late October 2022. Weekly Expected Move There is a 68% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range. High price: 375.64 Low price: 349.95 There is a 95% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range. High price: 388.48 Low price: 337.10 For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price within the current week. It is calculated using the implied volatility from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior week but before the market opens for the current week. For more information on how to calculate these values, please see the link at the bottom of this post. Volatility & Seasonality From a seasonality perspective, October usually opens relatively strong and can continue to be strong until about the middle of the month, then prices typically decline toward the end of the month. See the chart below. There may be increased volatility if the CPI report that comes out before the market opens on Thursday, October 13th surprises again to the upside. My inflation predictors show that inflation moderated in September (year-over-year) and that the inflation figure will be less than the August figure. However, there are early signs that inflation (particularly commodity price inflation) may not decline at the level needed for central banks to pivot away from tightening for some time to come. Until commodity prices stop accelerating higher, there cannot reasonably be a Fed Pivot. If the Fed were to pivot while commodities price inflation was accelerating it could lead to a hyperinflationary outcome. The recent volatility spike put the VIX term structure into partial backwardation. VIX term structure backwardation simply means that the market is pricing in decreasing volatility in the future. The VIX term structure usually goes into complete backwardation at major stock market bottoms, as this structure reflects the type of capitulation that all major stock market bottoms typically exhibit. In late September, the VIX broke the downward-sloping trendline. It's quite possible that there will be a capitulation event in mid- or late-October that causes the VIX to rise back above this downward-sloping trendline and which causes the VIX term structure to go into complete backwardation. If such a capitulation event occurs then it will likely mark the bottom for 2022. Fibonacci Levels Price continues to cluster around the 3rd Fibonacci spiral that I discussed in my prior posts (see links to related ideas below). It is my prediction that a capitulation event will form a lower wick below this line on the yearly candle but that prices will tend to revert back around this level by the year's end such that the yearly candle appears to sit on this line. See below for an illustration. If there is a major capitulation event whereby volatility breaks out and prices break down, I would expect major buyers to come in around the 0.5 level (shown below). The 0.618 level is another support level to watch. Regression Channel Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert back (or regress) to its mean for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us identify which trend is governing price action. These channels can give insight into trend reversals. Since mid-August, the regression channel on the 1-hour chart has been governing price action (as inferred by such a high Pearson score). Please see below. You can see below that on Friday (October 7th), the price bounced off the mean (red line). Unless we get a highly favorable CPI report this week, I would expect that this channel could continue to govern price action all the way until the start of November. Here's a general sense of what that could look like. Please see below. Weekly Chart In my last SPY Analysis, I noted that my indicators on the weekly chart were suggesting that we could drop back below 388. That definitely happened in the midst of the end-of-September volatility. This time I am seeing something interesting on the 2-week chart... I noticed that the Madrid Ribbon has turned completely red twice. This is very rare in S&P 500 history. To put into perspective how rare this is, there have been recessions where not even this occurs. Therefore, in this regard, the extent and duration of stock market declines that we have already seen have been worse than some past recessions. Unfortunately, though, when this signal presents itself, there is usually more pain ahead. We are in a precarious circumstance with price now below the entire ribbon. Another chart that has me concerned about a potential capitulation event is the 2-day chart for the tech short derivative chart (SQQQ). As many of you well know, when tech stocks fall in price, the price of SQQQ goes up. As the chart above shows, the moving averages on the 2-day chart are nearing a complete crossover. This has never happened before in SQQQ's 12-year history. While only a possibility, this could set the stage for a capitulation event whereby Nasdaq 100 ( QQQ) stocks nosedive back down to their pre-pandemic highs. Without getting too deep into the analysis, this could also mean that as a ratio to the money supply, the Nasdaq 100 goes all the way back to the March 2020 bottom. In future posts, I'll discuss more about the money supply and why it can be used in this manner. Monthly Chart In terms of the monthly chart, as noted above, I do not see the S&P 500 realistically getting much below the 0.5 level in the chart below without some kind of a major price recovery. While anything can happen, if the Fed pivots before the Fed Funds rate has risen above the rate at which commodity prices are inflating, I do believe we can end up in a difficult situation with high inflation again in the future. Yearly Chart When put into the perspective of the entire history of the stock market (going back in 1871), look how high the stock market is currently valued relative to its mean and past price action. In terms of the post-Great Recession bull run, we are hanging on by our fingertips. See below. Below is a closer view. At the close of 2021, the stock market was so overbought (in terms of the Shiller PE ratio) that despite nearly 10 months of selling, stock valuation is still nearly as high as the peak before the Great Depression. The stock market is extremely overvalued because of monetary easing. Monetary easing is a central bank experiment that began in recent decades and was normalized in the years following the Great Recession. The monetary easing experiment has created tremendous reliance on its continuity. Only time will tell how the experiment ends... Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your constructive thoughts. Thank you. If you'd like to plot the weekly and daily expected moves for SPY on your chart, try the indicator "SPY Expected Move by VIX", which is calculated from the VIX rather than from the implied volatility of the options chain. The expected moves that I've posted above were manually calculated by me using SPY options chain data. If you'd like to learn how to calculate the weekly expected move yourself, this video can help: www.youtube.com
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
48
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: in the update of yesterday, we expected that "we are in wave (C) of 5 of c of (y) of b. Note that if we lose the ascending channel, the chances are high that we have peaked, either to make an X and a third zigzag or to initiate the next bearish leg." Update: we did not make a higher high and lost the ascending channel, signaling that the peak for (y) of b is set. Now, what I expect is that we have completed a second (x) and will go higher to complete a third zigzag and set the top for wave b. Again, if we lose the ascending channel, it means wave b has completed as a double zigzag and we have initiated leg c.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: in the previous update, we had the idea that we are in wave c of (III) of c of Z of (B), but mentioned that the alternative scenario of being in wave b of Z of (B) is equally valid. Update: based on the price action I am now favoring the alternative count as my primary. The bearish move of August 16th to Oct. 13th is considered as leg a of Z and we are now in wave b of Z. Looking into the hourly chart, wave b of Z can be a double or triple zigzag. Potential targets for wave b peak? (~3980) 1. If we consider the retracement of wave a of Z, we have these targets: 3914.75, 3985.75, and 4012.25! 2. Based on the volume profile of wave a of Z, we have 3980.5 as the VPOC.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations in the previous update: We got a perfect rejection in the area noted as wave 2 of c of (III). We are in wave 1 of (A) of 3 of c of (III). Unless invalidated, I will stick to this count, but the other scenario is still possible. Update: not much update is needed to the hourly count, we are in wave 3 of (A) of 3 of c of (III). If this is the correct count, first we need to see bearish pressure breaking down the channel to show wave 3. What about the alternative scenario? the alternative scenario is still valid and is that we have completed wave a of Z (the move initiated August 16th) and we are in wave b of Z at the moment. So far we have completed one zigzag in b of Z, so it can turn out to be a triangle, flat or double zigzag.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: in the update of Oct. 14th, I saw three possible scenarios: 1) Wave c of (III), 2) Wave b of (III), 3) Wave b of Z of (B) being under development. In the update of yesterday, I saw scenario 1 being the most likely. Update: with this price action, scenario 2 is ruled out. At the moment, I am putting 60% probability on scenario 3 and 40% on scenario 1, based on the wave structure and the fact that we have broken out of the downward trendline. 3820 is the invalidation point for scenario 1, until then and with the volatility expected from earning reports, I would consider both scenarios as being possible. Overall, even if the 3rd scenario becomes our main count I don't expect a huge rally.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
2
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the key points of the previous update: We are in wave 2 of c of (III) of c of Z of (B). Retest of double top's neckline on the hourly chart to happen. So far, we have completed 2 zigzags in wave 2, can it be complete? yes or it can get a third zigzag to the zone of the neckline and the downward trendline. Update: our expectations were met perfectly where the third zigzag developed on Friday pre-market and wave 2 of c of (III) of c of Z of (B) peaked at 3733.75 (3734 was the expectation). Now, we are in wave 2 (cyan) of (A) (yellow) of 3 of c of (III) of c of Z of (B) and in the regular hours of today's market we will see wave 3 of (A).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
SPY S&p 500 ETF and the Midterm ElectionsThe U.S. midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. All 435 U.S. House seats and 34 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot. If you haven`t sold the high P/E ratio explained here: Then you should know that the Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 18.10. Sill high in my opinion. Even though my Price Target for the end of the year is $338, i expect a short term rally before the Midterm Elections. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
15
SPY in Clear Downtrend - Where are we headed next??Ever since the S&P 500 topped at the end of 2021 we have been in a clear bearish down trend. Here we're looking at the weekly chart. Drawing fibonacci lines we can see the area's of previous support tell us to keep an eye on these levels: 345 320 300 275 We can also see that the RSI is oversold on weekly so we can potentially see a little rally. Macro trends are not looking great with inflation hanging around, Russia vs Ukraine tensions, etc Happy trading!
AMEX:SPY
by WillGood
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisFirst of all, my apologies for the ES updates of this week that were not so accurate. This is part of this game, you are not going to be always right. With the price action of yesterday, I see three possible scenarios and the main difference between them is to see how much the rally initiated yesterday continues (from short to long continuation): Scenario 1 (my primary count at the moment): we are in wave 2 of c of (III) of c of Z of (B). Scenario 2: we are in wave b of (III) of c of Z of (B) playing as a flat. Scenario 3: we are in wave b of Z of (B). Once again I am letting the structure of the price action to lead me not my own expectations (personally, after seeing the big bullish candle of yesterday, I would expect more continuation than my primary count expects, but I am not allowing my expectations/emotions to lead the way). Now, I see that we are in wave 2 of c of (III) of c of Z of (B). In the updates of last week I was expecting the retest of this double top's neckline on the hourly chart to happen. So far, we have completed 2 zigzags in wave 2, can it be complete? yes or it can get a third zigzag to the zone of the neckline and the downward trendline.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
SPX - News lows and the follow-upLike the rest of the market, SPX hit a new low for 2022. By doing so, it reached our price target of 3 500 USD, and therefore, we would like to provide our thoughts on this asset. We continue to be bearish in general. However, at the moment, we would like to stay on the sidelines and monitor the market. We believe economic conditions will worsen with another rate hike in early November and the upcoming earning season. Therefore, we have little faith in the reversal of the primary trend. Instead, we believe that the bear market has not ended, and new lows will be set over time. As for the short-term, we will look for clues indicating exhaustion within the bounce move-up. Indeed, we think the current bounce represents an excellent opportunity for repositioning on the short side. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. If the price breaks above the sloping resistance 1, it will be bullish; the same applies to the sloping resistance 2. The failure will suggest otherwise. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic show signs of reversing to the upside. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame shows signs of relief after the market became oversold in the short term. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
20
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: no change to my daily count has been made since a long time ago. The only part that tricked me was the choppy price action of the past few days to decide on the lower-time count, but I had the alternative count in mind and mentioned in the updates: "I came up with the idea that we are in wave b of (III) playing out as a triangle. Also, I have an alternative count (low probability for now) that we are in wave 3 of c of (III) and the main point to distinguish between the two counts is whether the 3571 zone holds or not." Update: the CPI came out this morning and we lost 3571, we are in wave 3 of c of (III). I will try to publish more details on the targets this evening.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh