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Spy500

Potential Failure in SPYSPY created a S/R Box between 362.17 - 431.73. There was an adjustment bar formed in July. These generated a weak point (danger zone) between 362.17 - 371.04 Should you set your stochastic to be the width of the box that was created (currently 4 bars), Jan - Apr was also a 4 bar box. When Stochastics move below 30, it is an indication that it is about to challenge the lows. Currently the stochastic is 17.32, this is suggesting that there is 17.32 of the box range left until the bottom is breached. The Apr 22 value for the 4 period stochastic was 1.96 suggesting weakness and a challenge of the low. However, there is a danger zone. 371.04, if prices could bounce from here (and on Sep 23, the price is 374.22 with a low of 373.44) it shows that there is strong support here. Should prices enter this zone, if fails to hold, the bottom will fall out. The next area of potential support could fall (based on calculations Sep 23) to between 340 - 350. However, there is still 6 trade periods left in the month. End of the month calculation could result in a lower target range being generated.
AMEX:SPY
by priceprophet
1
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations of yesterday: I think we started wave (III) of c of Z today. This is going to be the start of a massive bearish leg. I think we are completing wave (A) of 3 of a of (III). This morning, following our plan, I updated my count in this way: Update: the price action is following our expectations nicely. I think we completed waves a and b of 3 of (C) of 3 of a of (III) and we should head lower to complete wave 3 (cyan) of (C) (yellow) of 3 (light green). Note that I can just publish a count on the 4-hour chart and easily don't go into detailed count, which also increases my overall "prediction accuracy" considerably, but my aim is to also help daytraders out there :-)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
10
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: Finally, after a few days of vague price action, the structure is clear to me. Since September 19th, I had the idea that we have bottomed for wave (I) of c of Z and need a pullback as wave (II). The structure of wave (II) developed yesterday and the fact that it was very shallow made me to think that we are developing a flat as wave (II) and was expecting a rally to the 3960-3986.25 zone today before wave (III), which did not happen. Yesterday I warned about this possibility: "Note that the alternative count is that we are in wave (III) to the downside with a very shallow wave (II)." Update: I think we started wave (III) of c of Z today. This is going to be the start of a massive bearish leg, which I expect to move fast. Let's look at the hourly chart: I think we are completing wave (A) of 3 of a of (III).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: this structure is definitely very unusual and tricky to count. Let's review the expectations of yesterday: The price action followed our expectations nicely, except that I made a call for wave (I) bottom a bit early. Looking at the hourly chart, I believe we have almost completed a zigzag in wave (II) so far. Can it be all that wave (II) had to offer? yes, it is possible, but I don't think its the case, mostly because it has been a very shallow pullback as a wave (II). As a result, I am expecting a second zigzag (y) to develop tomorrow and on Wednesday before FOMC. I have the same range of 3960-3986.25 for wave (II) peak. Update: Following the publication of yesterday's idea, we made a higher high to complete the zigzag in wave (II) as predicted. I was expecting a double zigzag to develop as wave (II), however, it did not and based on the price action of today, I think the most probable scenario is that we are developing a flat as wave (II). I am still considering the same range for wave (II) peak. Note that the alternative count is that we are in wave (III) to the downside with a very shallow wave (II).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
2
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review our expectations on the update of September 17th: The price action followed our proposed structure perfectly. However, based on my observation on major stocks and the fact that the wave (II) was very shallow, I am changing my primary count. This count is not invalidated, however, it is not the most probable scenario in my opinion. My new labeling is that this week we completed wave (I) of c of Z and now we will have a pullback as wave (II), which I think will end by September 21st (FOMC). What follows is the initiation of wave (III) of c of Z. My target for wave (II) peak? 3960-3986.25 Update: The price action followed our expectations nicely, except that I made a call for wave (I) bottom a bit early, which I believe I could have known based on the structure. Looking at the hourly chart, I believe we have almost completed a zigzag in wave (II) so far. Now, can it be all that wave (II) had to offer? yes, it is possible, but I don't think its the case, mostly because it has been a very shallow pullback as a wave (II). As a result, I am expecting a second zigzag (y) to develop tomorrow and on Wednesday before FOMC, then a massive bearish wave (III) initiates. I have the same range of 3960-3986.25 for wave (II) peak.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
#spy What was up with the quick pump on Friday?Hey wasup, SPY SPY happy MONDAY TRADERS I hope you all had a great weekend. Unfortunately Bitcoin didn't lmao. Its really funny what they did on Friday 30 mins before closing . If the dollar stays around $109.70 or above $110.00 you can kiss all of that pump goodbye and see you again at 383 -385. luckily for me I placed puts right. before close on Friday . Stuff like that is tooo good to be true. I will continue to post my out look of the market through out the week. If you would like for me to post my entries for other stocks this week let me know and I will post them and give you my IG. Please do not get caught short in puts or calls. minimize your losses and take advantage of your executions. Fed meets this week so you know what that means . They tried to price in the interest rates last week so they can pump it up this week just to catch you with your pants down by the end of the month don't say I didn't warn you.
AMEX:SPY
by Courtneyd
3
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review our expectations on the update of September 15th: The price action followed the updated count perfectly. Right now, we are in wave 3 of a of (III). Update: the price action followed our proposed structure perfectly. However, based on my observation on major stocks and the fact that the wave (II) was very shallow, I am changing my primary count. Again, this count is not invalidated, however, it is not the most probable scenario in my opinion. My new labeling is that this week we completed wave (I) of c of Z and now we will have a pullback as wave (II), which I think will end by September 21st (FOMC). What follows is the initiation of wave (III) of c of Z. My target for wave (II) peak? (3960-3986.25) 1) Retracement of wave (I): 3960.25, 3976, 3986.25, and 4014 2) Volume profile of wave (I): 3951, 3962, and 4003.25 3) Support/resistance levels: 3961.25, 3976.75, 3995.5, and 4017 Note that a wave (II) generally retests wave b of wave (I) and even extends higher, in this case we have 3981.25 as peak of wave b of (I).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
2
SPY S&P 500 September is historically the worst month for stocksTwo months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst. Economic context: Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe through a key pipeline until western sanctions are lifted. OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day. August 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on September 13, 2022. Fed’s next scheduled monetary policy meeting takes place on September 20-21. Depending on how inflation is trending and how the jobs markets and overall economy is looking we expect a Fed Rate Decisions of 50bps or 75bps hike. The crypto market context is not good either. Ethereum network’s security and performance could be negatively impacted by the upcoming Merge. Taking into consideration the information above, my price target for the SPY ETF is $374. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
4
Performance Review, Week of 2022-08-22 to 2022-08-26The usual way I publish my public ideas is daily updates on ES and weekly updates on NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:AMD , and NASDAQ:NVDA . Starting this weekend, I am going to publish performance reviews on these updates. Note that in these posts, my goal is not to update the counts, but only to compare the expectations vs reality. Updates to the counts are published in the same usual way. Overall, you can see perfect match between AAPL, AMD, NVDA, and daily ES updates with the reality. The only one that was not matching is TSLA, which I actually warned about in it's weekend update. AMD: NVDA: AAPL: TSLA: ES August 20th: ES August 22nd: ES August 23rd: ES August 24th: ES August 25th
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
COSTCO STRONG SELLCostco appears to be forming a huge H&S on weekly. While I hadn't really paid much attention to Costco I did see it mentioned yesterday which caused me to take a look. Want to note that Costco has performed strong relative to the market and that's why I like it for a short. This recent rally over the past couple of months is leaving a lot of meat on the bone for a short IMO. As you can see the past couple years have been quite the run up. Unfortunately if we are going into a bear market even the best performing stocks are liable to pull back significantly. I think we are a long way from ATHs and I expect to Costco to at least hit the first three targets within the coming months. Taking some profits today on some other shorter swing shorts and hopeful Monday Costco opens green so I that I can begin scaling in a position. Thoughts? Disagree? Feedback welcomed and appreciated! NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE ALL MY OPINION
NASDAQ:COSTShort
by EZmoney24