US Market Technicals Ahead (5 Apr – 9 Apr 2021)Stock market gains could continue with with the $SPX index scaling the 4,000 level for the first time last Thursday. IMF’s spring meeting and minutes from the last FOMC meeting and the ECB’s latest meetings will be in the spotlight this coming week.
Investors will also be watching if Congress will pass President Joe Biden’s massive 2 Trillion infrastructure plan announced last week. Markets in China, Germany, the UK and Australia will be closed on Monday for holidays.
Here is what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) surged to its all time high with a gain of +1.61% (+64.1 points) for the week, scaling the 4,000 level for the first time last Thursday.
Those gains could continue after the Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March, the most in seven months, while jobs growth in February was also larger than previously estimated. T
The immediate support to watch for $SPX is at 3,989 level, a previous resistance turned support level going forward.
IMF meeting
The IMF is to begin its spring meetings (virtually) on Monday where policymakers will give a snapshot of the economic fallout from the pandemic, but also release updated forecasts for growth for 2021 and 2022.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has already indicated that the updated World Economic Outlook will see an upward revision to January’s forecast for 5.5% global economic growth this year.
Central bank minutes
The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday and investors will be on the lookout for any fresh insights on inflation amid concerns that unprecedented stimulus will lead to rising price pressures.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell played down concerns about inflation after the bank’s March meeting, saying policymakers see inflationary pressures as transient.
The ECB is to release its latest meeting minutes on Thursday. Last week ECB President Christine Lagarde said investors could test the bank’s willingness to rein in rising borrowing costs “as much as they want”.
Powell, Fed speakers
Investors will be watching an appearance by Fed Chair Jerome Powell who is due to discuss the global economy on an IMF panel Thursday.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is to speak at a webinar hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on Monday to discuss the global economic recovery from the pandemic.
Spy500
S&P500 - ready for a breakout?The S&P500 index started the new trading week cautiously. However, the basic course towards the north remains decisive and it is therefore not surprising that market participants have already taken hold again around 3,900 points. Once again, the support level of 3,900 points was confirmed and retains its relevance for further price development. Above this level, the situation remains bullish in the short term. A rise above the round and at the same time psychologically important 4,000 point mark should fuel further attention and interest among market participants. As a result, a sustained performance to the next target at 4,204 points is quite realistic in the further course of the upcoming spring months.
A daily close below 3,880 points, on the other hand, could trigger a sharper decline to support at 3,730 points. Below that, there would be even much greater downside potential to the support zone at around 3,560 points.
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$SPY will crash soon...PLEASE PLEASE BE MOSTLY CASH!Wells Fargo Executes Four Block Trades Worth $2 Billion
Stocks valued at $2.64 billion changed hands in a flurry of block trades Monday as tumult from the wind-down of Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management extended into a new week.
Five block trades valued at a combined $2.14 billion were executed by Wells Fargo & Co., according to a person familiar with the matter.
US STOCKS-S&P 500 near flat; hedge fund default concerns hit banks
The S&P 500 was nearly flat in Monday afternoon trading, with bank shares falling amid warnings of potential losses from a hedge fund's default on margin calls, while optimism over the economy limited the day's declines.
Nomura and Credit Suisse are facing billions of dollars in losses after a U.S. hedge fund, named by sources as Archegos Capital, defaulted on margin calls, putting investors on edge about who else might have been caught out.
Shares of Morgan Stanley were down 2.5% after the Financial Times reported it had also sold billions of shares, while the banks index shed about 1.9%. "There's still chatter as to whether or not, and which, American banks may be affected.
Wall Street's fear gauge rose.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.94-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.11-to-1 ratio favored decliners.
The S&P 500 posted 69 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 81 new highs and 50 new lows.
Everything has peaked...
$SPY will knife drop so fast, no one will have any time to sell...
SPY: Charting the chopBeen charting the chop now and have started to find that it is helpful to chart both bullish and bearish scenarios since a healthy level of doubt is good for the longevity of any trading account
At the moment, SPY seems to be in a corrective move after the rally from ~370 to ~398. The speed of the reversal today plus the strength of the selling felt characteristic of a 3rd wave move - confirmation or rejection of this will likely come at open tomorrow (gap down would be confirmation). That may be tough to come by since price is sitting on support and the 'Buy The Dip' mentality is still strong in the market
I would certainly caution bullishness here considering that most of the "good news" is currently known/out but the reality of the lingering bad situations will create waves that may shake investors confidence (Covid Lockdowns/Third wave, Semiconductor Supply Chain issues, Magin Debt, Inflation)
Definitely looking at the downside as more probably right now so marking this as a short thought I do not currently have a position - waiting for tomorrow for the confirmation or resistance test before entering
SPY running risk of falling out of the H1 ChannelSPY is getting closer to the bottom of the H1 channel we have set up. If we continue below 385 then look for a return 382 and then 371 on our Fib sequence.
If we bounce off the bottom of the channel then it is just a release of any overbought scenario. We are short term neutral but long term bearish on the current market as the Daily is very overbought in our opinion.
US Market Technicals Ahead (22 Mar – 26 Mar 2021)For this upcoming week, Investors will be watching the scheduled testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday and Wednesday before Congress, as 10-year bond yield reached its highest in 14 months. Personal consumption expenditures inflation data will also be released at the end of the week.
Before his joint testimony to Congress with Yellen, Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Monday at the start of a four-day conference organized by the Bank for International Settlements on innovation in the digital age.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) traded the week to a all time high of 3,989, before returning all its gain with a weekly loss of -0.77% (-30.2 points) for the week. Optimism about the prospects for the economic recovery has accelerated a shift into bank and other value stocks, powering the $SPX to record levels during the week.
With $SPX remaining above its 20DMA & 50DMA and at a higher low trend formation, the immediate support to watch for $SPX is at 3,860 level, a break on the convergence of both major moving averages. Resistance to watch for $SPX is at 3,989 level, a continuation to break its all time high level.
Powell, Yellen testimony
Powell and Yellen testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday where they will discuss the health of the U.S. economy and the importance of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the recovery from the pandemic.
Financial markets have diverged from the Fed on the possible future outlook for monetary policy, sending yields on U.S. Treasuries to their highest in more than a year.
Investors are pricing in a first rate hike sooner than the Fed currently expects, amid fears that the economy could overheat as it recovers from the pandemic given President Joe Biden’s massive stimulus package combined with the Fed’s easy money policy.
U.S. economic data
On the data front, durable goods orders and the personal income and spending reports are set to be the highlights of the week, along with figures on new and existing home sales.
The housing data together with the personal income and spending figures, which includes the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will probably show weakness, due to the impact of severe winter storms on economic activity in February. However, economists expect the slump to be short-lived.
The U.S. is also to publish the latest revision of fourth quarter 2020 GDP, which was last reported at an annualized 4.1%.
SPYHI! We are trading in a nice Rising Wedge channel and retesting the support area. In this case we may have a small pullback. The Stochastic Momentum Index is curving down + the Histogram .
Waiting for a confirmation (to hit the Fibonacci levels / On the smaller time frames (1h / 5m) to identify patterns to enter a long position.
For a small period I`m bullish on SPY.
Today may be a day with nice discounts on markets. Have a plan ! (Exit target- Entering point).
Have a nice weekend everyone! .
$SPY a bit higher then choppy downtrend...The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500® Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index, with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
US Market Technicals Ahead (15 Mar – 19 Mar 2021)We have officially mark the start of daylight saving time (DST), as North America have moved ahead an hour on Sunday 14th March. US and Canadian markets will trade one hour earlier than usual in Asia time.
The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated monetary policy meeting will be the big deal for global financial markets in the week ahead. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the economic reopening could boost inflation temporarily and that the US economy was going to start to see stronger employment in the next few months. Still, the Fed chief also said that the central bank was still a long way from its inflation and employment targets. Investors would be eager to hear if the central bank will take any measures to bring bond yields down, which saw the 10-year yield surge above 1.60% to the highest in a year on Friday.
Besides the Fed meeting, U.S. retail sales data will be in focus for further indications on the strength of the reopening rebound.
Meanwhile, in earnings, there are just a few big names set to report their latest financial results, with global economic bellwether FedEx ($FDX) and athletic apparel giant Nike ($NKE) likely to draw the most attention.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) continued its recovery to end up +2.63% (+100.8 points) for the week, gaining traction to recapture its all time high at 3,965 points, a mere 20 points (0.5%) away.
At the current junction, $SPX have managed to trade back above its 20DMA & 50DDMA, along with a negation of its short term trendline resistance highlighted last week. Immediate resistance for $SPX is currently at 3,965, a continuation to break its all time high level.
Federal Reserve Policy Meeting
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET (18:00 GMT) on Wednesday, keeping it in a range between 0.0%-0.25%.
Perhaps of greater importance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold what will be a closely watched press conference 30 minutes after the release of the Fed’s statement.
Investors will be looking for clear signs that Powell and fellow policymakers are concerned about the current spike in yields amid mounting inflation expectations.
U.S. Retail Sales
The Commerce Department will release data on retail sales for February on Tuesday at 8:30AM ET (12:30 GMT).
The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales fell 0.6% last month, following January’s surge of 5.3%.
Excluding the automobile sector, core retail sales are expected to drop 0.1%, after climbing 5.9% in the preceding month.
Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy.
Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth.
FedEx, Nike Earnings
The fourth-quarter earnings season has all but wound down, however results are expected from a number of big names in the week ahead, with most of the focus falling on FedEx, and Nike, which both report Thursday after the close.
Other notable companies reporting this week include Dollar General ($DG), Crowdstrike ($CRWD), Coupa Software ($COUP), PagerDuty ($PD), and Sundial Growers ($SNDL).
$SPY can see some more pullback.SPY, case patterns that can develop in the next couple of weeks .
Bearish: Head and Shoulders pattern, resistance is around 3900.
Bearish 2: Megaphone Pattern, causing a selloff to support area 3626.
Bullish: Confluence Point at 381, confirmation for a b/o to +4000.
$SPY Bull or Bear? Where are We Going?Video breakdown on $SPY after a nice relief bounce. We rejected or daily resistance so we could see a few days of chop!
$ADNT swing idea $ADNT in top 20 industry group basing a continuation revers H&S pattern, waiting for breakout with big volume to swing it .
SPY Hypothetical ScenariosPossible Hypotheticals are shown in the chart. A bounce and reclaim of 200MA is a great indication of a positive outlook for SPY.
FIrst possible scenario is we bounce off the 390 level and head back down to support and trade within channel.
Second possible scenario is we hold the 200MA and reclaim the 390 level, bounce off the previous level of 395, then proceed to ATHs.
Obviously, this is very over-simplified. There are innumerable scenarios. Just posting this for personal reference as well as hear other people's thoughts on the market.
#SPY OR SPX500 OR S&P500 ANALYSIS FOR MARCH 2021Hello Traders,
Welcome to March 2021,
It has been quite the mixed start in the markets especially with the huge sell-off in the Technology sector. This has
alerted us to activity taking place in the market and we've decided to see if it's really a turn for a BEARISH Stock Market but it doesn't
seem that we are there yet. After the week of predominant sell off in the markets, we've spotted the S&P Index for a Buy opportunity.
As of now, this week seems to be in corrective mode after February's buying, so we shall see next week onwards if bullish action
continues above $3900 and higher.
TVC:SPX
The Trading Regime.
Always trade ONLY with what you are ok to lose. Recommend max 3% of account balance per trade, 10% total account exposure.
DISCLAIMER: Futures, stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures, stocks and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. ... All trading strategies are used at your own risk.
