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Spy500

US Market Technicals Ahead (21 Dec – 25 Dec 2020)The Federal Reserve announced on Friday evening that it will allow the nation’s big banks to resume share buybacks in the first quarter of 2021 subject to certain rules. Bank Stocks rose across the board in post-market trading with $JPM (JP Morgan) +5.3%, $GS (Goldman Sachs) +4.4%, and $WFC (Wells Fargo) +3.5%. Going into the holiday-shortened Christmas week there will still be plenty to watch out for in markets as i) Investors await the vote on a $900 billion coronavirus aid package; ii) Vaccine rollout effort will widen after Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine became the second to receive FDA approval; iii) Monday could see some stock market volatility following Tesla’s addition the S&P 500, as index funds adjust holdings to match the benchmark’s rejig, and iv) Brexit negotiations are in the endgame, putting a trillion dollars worth of trade at risk from tariffs and quotas. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P 500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) have successfully rebounded from the Bullish Reversal Hammer highlighted last week, totaling a gain of +1.80% (+65.8 points). The rally have also seen S&P500 closed the week establishing a new all time high of 3,725 level. Volatility of the index continues to pull lower, with ATR-14 now heading towards September low of 40 points per day ATR-14. With S&P500 remains trading within a 3% trend channel range established since 10th November, the technical strength of the market remains bullish for a continuation rally towards 3,750 level in the upcoming week. The immediate support to watch for any signs of weakness is at 3,660 level, an initial break of the trendline support. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus on the way? The U.S. Congress appears close to a vote on a $900 billion coronavirus relief package, after lawmakers reached a last-minute compromise to overcome one of the final obstacles to a deal. Congressional leaders plan to attach the stimulus package to a $1.4 trillion bill to fund government spending through September 2021. A new government funding deadline is set to expire at midnight Sunday (0500 GMT Monday), risking a government shutdown without a vote. The coronavirus aid package is expected to include one-off $600 checks for most Americans, enhanced unemployment benefits of $300 per week, help for states distributing coronavirus vaccines and more assistance for small businesses. 2. Tesla shakeout Investors may see some volatility on Monday when Tesla ($TSLA) begins trading as part of the S&P 500 as index funds adjust their portfolios to match the benchmark’s shakeup. Tesla shares have rallied almost 700% year-to-date, placing its stock market value at around $600 billion. It is the world’s most valuable auto company, despite having output that is just a fraction of rivals Toyota (NYSE:TM), Volkswagen ($VOW) and General Motors ($GM). Some analysts say its share price is far ahead of fundamentals and there is plenty of debate on how the stock will perform from here on out. 3. Brexit deadline looming With less than two weeks left to go before Britain exits the European Union when the transition period ends on Dec. 31 there is still no trade agreement in place, putting a trillion dollars worth of trade at risk from tariffs and quotas. The talks are still deadlocked on two issues – the EU’s fishing rights in British waters and creating a so-called level playing field providing fair competition rules for both sides. Both sides need to get any deal approved by their parliaments, and with the talks in their final stages, it is expected that any conclusion will most likely come before Christmas.
ULong
by jfsrevg
MTF killer zoneThis MTF Killer Zone, its drawn when yesterday or the last period closes, it so powerful . The way I use it is buying and selling as a support and resistance zone (but its not support and resistance analysis) or at a retest when it break, and if its not touched by the price today or in the current period ... than the zone will be still valid for any time in the near future (3 to 4 days or periods in this example). You can use it as a target if you already have an open position in the market, or using a time frame for entry and another for target. I can send for you on request different time frame the MTFkillerzone, such as weekly and monthly also good for yearly. I recommend to use it only major pairs, also any other financial instrument ( Commodities , indices, bonds, and equities) . Enjoy the setup please! :)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ghattas360
SPY Holding Up During Holidays? Happy Holidays! After seeing the AMEX:SPY hit ATH last week, some wonder if the flame has just been lit or if it's being put out. Will the market hold strong into the New Years' or will it start a correction as Biden makes his way into office. Right off the bat, I see a few key levels to watch starting with $363.22 as Monthly support and $365.73 as weekly. We should also watch $369.84 and $371.05 as weekly resistance. As the vaccine is distributed nationally and globally, we could aim to expect a continuation up that is unless we see negative news about this pandemic or vaccine. We also need to remember that Biden will be making his transition into the White House on January 20th, 2021. God Bless America
AMEX:SPY
by DotcomJack
3
S&P500 - Better Buy Prices on Deck possibly this weekMinor dip, and what appears to be a lower high unless prices move higher in the last couple of hours. Minor bearish divergence detected on the RSI. Ultimately I am long, got the shorting out of my system at the beginning of the year. Just looking to invest at better prices. We are overdue for a little bit of pain as well as illustrated by my previous idea which did play out. Also price keeps hovering near the 3666 number, I'm sure it's pure coincidence, it always is... Would be aiming for a test of 3612 if I were shorting from today's highs. 4 More days after today and then I would hope to not be staring at charts the next week, save for possibly cryptocurrencies and to have all available cash invested for this year.
SP:SPXLong
by JJMa
2
US Market Technicals Ahead (14 Dec – 18 Dec 2020) $SPXThe S&P 500 ($SPX) wrapped up a losing week, as the outlook for additional fiscal stimulus remained uncertain. The benchmark index declined -0.82% (-30.3 points), with an establishment of an all time high session at 3,715 level during the week. The minor sell off during the week has the volatility of the index at it’s 10 weeks, with price volatility range at an average of +/- 50 points per daily market session. As highlighted during the previous week, S&P 500 remains trading within a very tight 3% trend channel range established since 10th November. The closing of Friday’s session established $SPY a Bullish Reversal Hammer (highlighted), indicating a potential short term rally for the upcoming week. The immediate support to watch is 3,588 classical support level, with SPY poised to recapture its all time high at 3,715 level this upcoming week. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus deadlock Investors are anxious to hear if more fiscal stimulus is coming as surging virus cases lead to fresh containment measures and business closures in many U.S. states. But Congress missed another deadline on Friday to deliver a new fiscal aid package to help revive the economy. The Senate instead passed a stop-gap extension of government funding to allow more time for lawmakers to work out a larger spending package, including coronavirus relief. A deal remains elusive after a months-long standoff between Republicans and Democrats over the size of the potential package. Over 13 million people are due to lose unemployment benefits on Dec. 26 without quick action by Congress. 2. U.S. COVID vaccine campaign gets underway The first doses of the vaccine developed by Pfizer ($PFE) and German partner BioNTech SE ($BNTX) will be delivered to 145 locations around the United States on Monday, marking a turning point in the pandemic that has killed more than 295,000 Americans. Millions of Americans could begin getting vaccinated this month, especially if a second vaccine from Moderna ($MRNA) is approved rapidly. Other companies with vaccines in advanced development include AstraZeneca ($AZN) with Oxford University, and Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ). 3. Fed meeting The Fed is to hold its final monetary policy meeting of 2020 against the background of a faltering economic recovery. The U.S. jobs report for November pointed to a loss of momentum in the labor market and the latest jobless claims data hit the highest since September amid fresh containment measures to curb the spread of the virus. That may prompt policymakers to debate making changes to the bank’s asset purchase program or alter its forward guidance for future purchases, particularly as Congress continues to remain deadlocked over additional fiscal stimulus.
ULong
by jfsrevg
New all-time highs on the way / a Recap of the last 2 monthsToday we will speak about the Huge corrective structure that has been broken on US500 a) After all-time highs of September 2020, we had two months of sideways movement and the presidential election in the middle of all that. Then, Pfizer came saying "we have the vaccine" and a new all-time Highs came. b) After that, we saw a new corrective movement, with more vaccine news, Moderna and AstraZeneca. c) The trigger that broke the white pennant was Donald Trump accepting to start cooperating with the incoming government. d) Now we have a small corrective structure (yellow pattern) and from a technical perspective, we think we will keep observing bullish behavior towards our Short-Term target at 3725 e) This movement on the Index is also being backed by sell-off on GOLD (as a safe haven asset) and optimism on the Crude oil market as well
ULong
by ThinkingAntsOk
Interesting theory on SPY: possible ST short?Bear case (just a theory): If we take a look at time and space on this daily chart, 25 bars (35 days) for the trough-peak-trough before the election. If we take the FDA talk on the vaccine for the same whatever reason, I believe there is a possible downside of ~9% until Dec 9th, a trough-peak-trough total of 29 bars (36 days). - Yellow trend line act as support. - Volume has been a downtrend. - The two overheard white trendlines represent a strong resistance on the daily and weekly charts. (candles move easier towards less resistance direction) - Technically only tested bottom support twice (red shadow or yellow trendline), possibly the third time? - Small rsi divergence on weekly. Bull case: Priced in. Spy looking to break overheard trendlines or move closely with it. - Tested the overhead trendlines three times with the last retest completed, possibly going higher. (green arrow) - Options pricing in more downward risks but not so much upside risk. (this is normal due to the nature of hedging) pasteboard.co - For educational purpose: www.tastytrade.com - Some of the macros: 10yr yield steady uptrend, low vix, gold downtrend, dollar going for new low since march. Just a theory, will keep my longs on, may just short with an option contract or two to defend downside risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by dannycc24
SPY - S&P500Just as feared, SPY did not break the resistance. Will need a bigger push to break that resistance. Back to 351 - 352 range tomorrow @EMA55. 1.2 billion was out from the market later in the afternoon today which made SPY go down. Since cases are rising and lock downs are initiating by some states, it is unlikely that onshore and offshore investors will invest, infact they will be taking their profits out given with all the uncertainty. Afterhours is red @8:05PM CST Please do your own Due Diligence!
AMEX:SPY
by mrrobobot
RSI and Trend line indicate a pull back imminently RSI is starting to fall after hitting overbought level and while vaccines signals a change in fundamental and returning back to normalcy will happen, SPY is actually 10% up year to year and has little upside to continue. As Covid cases rise and soft lock down happen across the country, the better play will be short the next 2 weeks or until SPY find supports possibly at 340 level. Full disclosure, I bought puts right at the end of today's closing bell when SPY reach 362.
AMEX:SPYShort
by xtoanvangx
2