Spy500
China sounds the need for stimulus A few weeks ago, we discussed the reversal in Chinese indices and the negative implications for American stocks. Yet, this week, the worse-than-expected data in China’s economy sparked talk about the need for additional stimulus measures in order to boost the post-Covid-19 recovery. At the same time, the FOMC unveiled the U.S. central bank might be a step closer to easing restrictive monetary policy. Both easing in the United States and stimulus overseas are likely positive factors for the U.S. stock market. In fact, to our surprise, we have already seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average reach a new all-time high on the eve of the FOMC press conference. With the Nasdaq 100 Index and S&P 500 Index hovering slightly away from their all-time highs, we would not be surprised to see them overcome these levels as well. We will monitor the situation in the foreseeable future and update our thoughts with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
The future of the SPYbased on fib pattern analysis i've been working on for around 2 years this is the beginning of a belief i can nail down the path of the future based on observations the next couple of months. on this chart timing is not accurate but the circles that hover over lines have some important factors to consider. all orange circles are possible retracements but none are guaranteed. on the flip side the green circles hover over lines that will be 100% achieved with the white line being the possible end of this bull run up. this will go to the end of the year and if i have timing right already which i don't claim to, look for spy 505ish by end of year. spoiler alert, at this point i have spy at 160 in two years but that's without enough info to make a real assessment. i am positive about the targets above and drew price levels so you have an idea. also drew a line at the highest point the spy has ever reached on that particular RSI indicator. my guess is we will be kissing it at the 505 or upper white line target whenever that is achieved by.
S&P500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISAs for S&P500 the index retested 4586.00 zone which presented some buying, as far as the long term trend for S&P 500 is bullish I will remain so and look to find buying opportunites only if the index trade above level 4588.00, but if the index break the level 4588.00 I will remain bullish but for me to take the trade I will want the index to trade above 4588.0 but for short positionsI want to see the 4544.00 level take out which for now it seems impossible but, nothing is impossible in trading, my t.p for long position will be @4640.00, which is more of a swing trade.
Exploring the Unassailable Position of the U.S. DollarTechnical analysis
From the point of view of technical analysis, we believe that the EUR/USD pair has completed the corrective wave Ⓑ after reaching the price range of 1.0945-1.097, which has also been a strong resistance zone over the last few days.
After which, we expect that EUR/USD will continue to correct within the impulsive wave © until it reaches a strong support zone.
Fundamental Analysis
Thanks to positive macroeconomic data released by government agencies in the US and European Union and lower oil prices in recent weeks, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in early 2024 has increased sharply.
Moreover, the US economy has shown remarkable resilience relative to Europe in recent months, reflected in the faster rate of decline in inflation, job growth, and foreign direct investment. In addition, according to Adobe, Americans spent a record $5.6 billion on online shopping, up 5.5% from November 23, 2022, which will also help increase the attractiveness of the USD relative to the EUR.
Show your support by liking👍, following✅, sharing🙌, and commenting✍! Feel free to share your ideas and charts below. Your engagement is crucial in spreading the word and maintaining the relevance of the content. Thanks for being an essential part of this community!
Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
GREED, GREED, GREED but what follows?About a month back, I made a solid move in the market that sparked a strong rally. Now, as we near the end of a strong earnings season, I'm in a neutral position, but I'm taking steps to secure gains by trimming my positions. I reckon a decent pullback would be beneficial before considering further upward movement. There's quite a few gaps to fill due to some impulsive buying, and I believe reallocating capital is crucial for a healthier market, especially considering how much weight big tech holds in the SPY.
NVIDIA's earnings showed remarkable strength. They surpassed already optimistic expectations by a significant 10%. The $600 target set by premium sellers seemed overly ambitious, yet those sellers managed to benefit from the earnings report released last week.
Many institutional investors are operating under the assumption of a smooth landing in 2024, envisioning reduced rates, a depreciating US Dollar, a weakened Chinese macroeconomy, and sustained dominance in Large Cap Tech. The consensus among fund managers leans towards the belief that the Fed's rate hike cycle is nearing its end, with expectations of forthcoming decreases in short-term rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable shift of interest towards Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Japanese stocks.
(Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, BLOOMBERG)
A clear deviation between NQ and ES CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! We can see that the ES chart is weaker and more "bearish" than the NQ. That means in the next week open if ES breaks the checkpoint "1" we can easily see an ATH for NQ , because we have already broken the checkpoint "1" on NQ . So I think the direction and the sentiment of NQ are highly based on whether ES breaks above or bellow the checkpoint "1" . We should also wait to see where the weekly gap will open. Up or down the current weekly close.
$SPY Weekly Price TargetsBased off Price Action, the next 2 weeks will determine if we will see new ATH or fill previous Order Blocks (OB).
Currently, we are in an Uptrend with the continuation from Oct. 10th ~$360 Demand. We had a clean break through the OB created on the week of Aug. 22nd. Which lead us to fill the Apr. 4th OB.
We could potentially see a continuation to ATH or a pullback to the $437 FVG with a reversal towards ATH.
If we fail to break through the current OB or the previous ATH we could see a sell off leading to the closing of previous OB's on, Mar. 13th ~$386 & Oct. 10th ~360.