SPY Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-15AMEX:SPY SPY Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-15)
Below is an integrated view of the models’ findings:
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SUMMARY OF MODEL KEY POINTS
• Grok/xAI noted that on very short timeframes the price is a bit below key 5‑minute EMAs and near lower Bollinger Bands—with RSI and MACD giving mixed signals—but on the daily chart some bullish features (price above the 10‑EMA, a slight MACD bullish grace, and a max pain level at $549) hint at a potential mean reversion. Their “if forced” ramp suggested a call at the $549 strike, though overall confidence was low (≈55%).
• Gemini/Google’s report highlighted conflicting technical readings – the M5 setup looked bearish while the daily chart showed a little bullishness. Their integration of high but falling VIX and options open‑interest levels led to an overall neutral/unclear reading. Their recommendation was to refrain from entering a directional trade at open.
• Llama/Meta leaned toward a moderately bearish reading based on the short‐term indicators (price below key EMAs, bearish MACD on both charts) despite some daily support. They specifically recommended buying the $537 put option (even though the premium is higher than the “ideal” $0.30–$0.60 range) with a target profit roughly 50% above the cost and a stop when SPY breaches an upper resistance level—backed by a 70% confidence level.
• DeepSeek also synthesized mixed timeframes – pointing out that while the market holds some daily support, the intraday picture is muddled by technical conflict, expensive premium costs for the moves required, and time decay factors. Their view was to wait rather than initiate a new position.
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2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
• Agreement: All reports recognize that SPY (about $537.61) is trading near key short‑term support levels with significant options OI clustering. The falling VIX is universally noted as a positive sign for reducing fear even though overall volatility remains high.
• Disagreement:
– Grok’s report and to some extent the daily charts hint at a slight bias to the upside (supported by max pain at $549), suggesting a potential call wing trade.
– In contrast, Llama/Meta’s analysis and the very short‐term indicators (M5, lower Bollinger band, bearish MACD) point toward a bearish bias, recommending a put trade.
– Both Gemini/Google and DeepSeek, however, find the technical signals too mixed to have high confidence in initiating any naked single‑leg weekly option trade at open.
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3. CLEAR CONCLUSION
• Overall Market Direction Consensus:
The models collectively paint a picture of uncertainty. There is no clear, high‑conviction directional bias at the open. The short‑term (intraday) technicals lean bearish or at best neutral, while the daily chart and max pain argument hint at a potential slight mean reversion. Given these conflicting signals, the overall market direction remains neutral/unclear.
• Recommended Trade:
Based on the clash in opinions—only one model (Llama/Meta) would go short (with puts) while two models (Grok/xAI and Llama/Meta) suggest if forced a trade—and given that the majority (Gemini/Google and DeepSeek) advise against trading in the current conditions, the consensus is not to enter a new weekly options position at the market open.
– Strategy: Single‐leg, naked options (calls or puts)
– Expiration: Weekly options only (expiry April 17, 2025)
– Premium: Trading ideal premium range is $0.30–$0.60, but neither candidate in the call nor put space meets all our criteria with high conviction
– Entry Timing: At open would be the plan if a trade were to be placed
– Confidence: Overall confidence in any trade is low (<60%)
• Key Risks and Considerations:
– The short‑term technical indicators (lower EMAs, bearish M5 MACD, tight Bollinger bands) could trigger a whipsaw if SPY moves sideways or reverses abruptly.
– The high but falling VIX signals that although volatility is subsiding, levels remain elevated.
– Time decay (theta) on weekly options is significant at the open, and the probability of a strong directional move is diminished without further confirmation during the session.
– Conflicting signals between daily trend (some bullish pointers) and intraday behavior reduce the reliability of a directional play.
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4. FINAL RECOMMENDATION
Given the model consensus with mixed and conflicting signals, the recommendation is to NOT trade weekly SPY options at market open today.
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TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
Spyanalysis
SPY Analysis: Navigating Tariff-Induced VolatilityContinuing from my last update, market volatility remains high due to Trump's unpredictable policy decisions. After initially folding and offering economic relief, Trump pivoted sharply with a sudden 145% tariff announcement. Today, China countered strongly with a 125% tariff. These escalating tariff exchanges continue to create significant uncertainty and market fluctuations, highlighting the critical need for careful analysis and precise trade management.
Technical Breakdown (4-Hour Chart)
Current Price Zone: Around $528.45
Key Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $536.50 (L.Vol ST 1b)
- Critical Resistance: $549.33 - $549.60 (L.Vol ST 2b)
- Major Resistance Zone (Liberation Day): Approximately $562.16
Support Levels:
- Initial Support: $523.67 (Best Price Short)
- Secondary Support: $510.84 (L.Vol ST 1a)
- Important Lower Support: $498.01 (L.Vol ST 2a)
- Strong Support Level (Trump Folded area): ~$485.18
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Potential Tariff Tension Relief):
- Entry Trigger: Confirmed breakout and sustained hold above resistance at $536.50.
Profit Targets:
- Target 1: $549.33 (next strong resistance level)
- Target 2: $562.16 (major resistance)
- Stop Loss: Below immediate support at $523.67, carefully managing downside risk.
Bearish Scenario (Ongoing Tariff Escalation or Increased Market Fear):
Entry Trigger: Inability to reclaim $536.50, or a decisive breakdown below support at $523.67.
Profit Targets:
- Target 1: $510.84 (nearest significant support)
- Target 2: $498.01 (secondary critical support)
- Target 3: $485.18 (robust support area)
- Stop Loss: Above resistance at $536.50 to protect against potential reversals.
Thought Process & Final Thoughts
The SPY currently trades within clearly defined resistance and support bands, heavily influenced by unpredictable tariff-driven headlines. Trump's volatile policy shifts and China's assertive retaliations amplify short-term market risks. Maintain flexible trading strategies, adhere strictly to established levels, and practice disciplined risk management. Continuous monitoring and swift response to evolving market sentiment will be essential for navigating this challenging environment effectively.
$SPY the final leg down? Bottom between $400 - $441It's looking like we're going to break the low I originally had at $481 from the top at $612.
The next most likely target is $441, and if we break that $414.
Both of those levels are good long term buys, the move should happen this week (and likely tomorrow) and that should mark the bottom for the market.
Island Bottom CONFIRMED on $SPY IF we GAP up tomorrow!Island Bottom CONFIRMED on AMEX:SPY SP:SPX IF we GAP up tomorrow!
I only believe we can GAP up tomorrow if there is news of China coming to the negotiation table with the U.S. after they raise the Reciprocal Tariffs to 104%.
If this doesn't happen, then this isn't confirmed, and we see a retest of $482, IMO!
I'm not playing this as a trade until we get confirmation! Too dangerous!
Not financial advice
Opportunity Beneath the Fear: SPY's Reversal SetupIn the Shadow of Headlines: SPY’s Drop Could Be 2025’s Big Opportunity
As markets react sharply to renewed tariff fears and Trump-related headlines, SPY continues its descent. Panic is setting in—but behind the noise, a strategic opportunity may be quietly forming.
While many rush to exit, others are beginning to position for the bounce. A well-structured entry strategy could be key to turning uncertainty into gains.
Entry Zone (Staggered):
🔹 543: First watch level—look for signs of slowing momentum.
🔹 515: Deeper entry point as the selloff extends.
🔹 <500 (TBD): Stay flexible—if panic accelerates, this could mark a generational setup.
Profit Targets:
✅ 570: Initial rebound target.
✅ 590: Mid-range level if recovery builds.
✅ 610+: Full recovery potential—rewarding those with patience and vision.
Remember: Headlines fade, but price action and preparation stay. This selloff may continue—but it might also be laying the foundation for 2025’s most powerful move. The key? Enter with discipline, protect your capital, and let the market come to you.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries significant risk. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
SPY Technical Outlook - Will Buyers Step In?AMEX:SPY is experiencing a corrective move after rejecting the upper boundary of the ascending channel. This rejection led to increased selling pressure, bringing price back to the lower boundary of the channel, where buyers may step in to defend the trendline support.
If the price holds at this dynamic support level, a bullish reaction could send AMEX:SPY toward the midline of the channel, with the next target around 607.00. Holding above this level would reinforce the bullish trend structure and increase the probability of continuation toward the upper boundary of the channel.
However, a breakdown below the trendline support would weaken the bullish outlook and open the door for further downside. Monitoring price action, volume, and confirmation signals will be crucial in determining the next move.
3/14/2025 SPY reversal or just a lil' bit more before a bounce? Key Observations:
1. Significant Downtrend:
• The recent price action shows a notable decline from its highs, suggesting strong selling pressure.
• The price has fallen to a major support zone around $551.42, close to a longer-term uptrend line (green line).
2. Support & Resistance Levels:
• $563.91 – A previous support level turned resistance after the recent decline.
• $551.42 – Currently being tested as a support level.
• $539.44, $518.36, and $510.27 – Potential next support levels if price continues downward.
3. Trendline Test:
• The long-term uptrend line is being tested right now. If it holds, SPY could see a bounce.
• If it breaks below, it might lead to a deeper correction towards $539.44 or lower.
4. Indicators:
• Stochastic RSI (middle panel):
• Currently in oversold territory, suggesting that selling momentum is strong, but a potential bounce could occur.
• MACD (bottom panel):
• The histogram is deeply negative, showing strong downward momentum.
• The MACD lines are still bearish but may start flattening, which could indicate slowing bearish momentum soon.
Prediction for Tomorrow & Near-Term:
• Bullish Scenario:
• If $551.42 and the trendline hold, SPY may attempt a bounce toward $563.91 resistance.
• Confirmation would require bullish momentum on lower timeframes and increased volume.
• Bearish Scenario:
• If SPY breaks below $551.42 and the trendline, expect further downside to $539.44 and possibly $518.36 in the coming days.
• A continued negative MACD and weak Stoch RSI would reinforce this bearish outlook.
Conclusion:
• Critical level to watch: $551.42.
• If SPY closes above it, we could see a short-term rebound.
• If it breaks below, expect more downside pressure toward $539.44 and $518.36.
SPY: Deep Pullback or the Opportunity of the Year?The market has spoken, and SPY has taken a deeper dive, breaking key levels and raising the big question: Will it keep dropping, or are we looking at the best opportunity of 2025?
Seasoned traders know that sharp declines aren’t just moments of panic—they are moments of opportunity. With SPY reaching 558, 545, and even 525, this could be the perfect setup for a strategic, tiered entry ahead of a potential rebound.
Key Recovery Levels:
🔹 570: First profit target, capturing an initial bounce.
🔹 590: A second take-profit zone if the momentum continues upward.
🔹 607: If recovery gains traction, this could be the level where many look to lock in gains.
The market may continue to dip, but every drop presents a potential golden opportunity. What looks risky today could turn into the trade of the year tomorrow. As always, risk management and disciplined execution are key.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risks, and each investor should conduct their own analysis and manage risk responsibly.
S&P500 $SPY | SPY’s All-Time High - Where to Next? | Feb23'25S&P500 AMEX:SPY | SPY’s All-Time High - Where to Next? | Feb23'25
AMEX:SPY BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $597.50 - $613.23
AMEX:SPY DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $584.88 - $597.50
AMEX:SPY SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $574.00 - $584.88
AMEX:SPY Trends:
AMEX:SPY Weekly Trend: Bullish
AMEX:SPY Daily Trend: Bullish
AMEX:SPY 4H Trend: Bullish
AMEX:SPY 1H Trend: Bearish
AMEX:SPY just reached a new all-time high! How did price get there?
AMEX:SPY experienced a small range between 602.45 – 604.00, followed by bearish momentum, leading to a 3% drop in price. However, bullish momentum quickly stepped in, pushing the price up before continuing downward again. This bearish trend was short-lived and appears to have formed a developing range rather than a sustained downtrend.
Shortly after, price broke back above 597.50, signaling the start of a new bullish trend. SPY then established a ranging pattern between 597.50 - 608.00 before ultimately breaking out to a new all-time high of 613.23. Despite the breakout, price action has now dropped back into the range between 597.50 - 608.00.
Where to next? Will SPY hold its new highs, or is this the start of a reversal?
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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Following up SPYEntry Strategy
Entry Levels:
599: Initiate your first position here.
593: Consider adding to your position if the price pulls back.
585: Evaluate a further entry during a deeper retracement.
Profit Targets:
607: Aim for an initial profit target at this level.
611: A secondary target to capture additional gains.
615: The final target where you may exit for optimal returns.
Remember to use proper risk management, including stop-loss orders, and ensure your risk/reward ratio meets your trading criteria.
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly.
MyMI After-Hours Update: S&P 500 Potential Pullback?As the White House proposes 25% Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum imported to the US, and with the current resistance we're seeing around the $6069 Price Level, we're now looking for a potential pullback as more import duties are to be included along with Steel and Aluminum come Tuesday / Wednesday of this week.
If we do see a pullback, we're looking to see if it break support on the 50% Retracement and even further below are the $6021 Price Levels, but even more so, the $5960s.
Going to be an interesting one to watch! Stay connected by registering your FREE account on our website to access even more resources and tools to improve managing your financials and investments.
LINK IN BIO!
SPY Gap Filled - Local Bottom - More SendTrading Fam,
I am not overlooking the small H&S pattern seen on this chart. I am simply presenting alternative data. What if that H&S pattern fails? It can happen. Even if we do drop further, our target down is that pink horizontal trendline. Will we get there before more buying ensues? Possibly. But this market is still bullish. The larger bull trend is still very much in tact.
Additionally, we can see that an important gap has been filled. Therefore, it is very possible that the small H&S pattern we see here will not reach its target down. If that is the case, we'll turn up again, continue through my Target #2 which was already hit, and proceed onward and upward to my final Target #3 (670-700) until that is reached sometime in 2025. Therefore, you are not wrong to start DCA'ing in at this point.
✌️ Stew
SPY H&S is breaking. The market may have just flipped!H&S Broke it's neckline and the overall $580 Support.
We are seeing this break of support across the NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM as well.
This is all leading me to believe strongly that we are now in a crash or correction in these markets. I personally sold out of all my TRADES and am HOLDING and DCAing in all my INVESTMENTS.
The difference here is my Trades where to the upside and with the markets telling us where we are most likely heading now I am not staying in trades to find out if it will be for 5% or more to the downside from here as this would lead to all long trades getting pulled to the depths of hell.
There are no certainties, and before, based on what I was seeing, I said I believed we would bounce and hold this area (Which could still be the case), but all reasoning behind that has been ruptured, and I have nothing left to believe in that besides small criteria.
To be a good or profitable trader, you need to be not stubborn, follow a set trading strategy, and be reactive to the markets and what they are telling us—not go against the overall trend! All we have are charts and indicators to help us make our best assumptions of what will happen. More criteria pointing in one direction is the way you have to assume we will go...well we went from pointing up and for an imminent bounce to most criteria pointing down for what will either be one of the biggest fake outs ever's or a correction/ crash in the markets after a massive 2 year bull run. Only time will tell at this point, but I wanted to make this post to inform everyone here about what I personally did and what I'm seeing.
I DID TALK ABOUT A CORRECTION/ CRASH THIS YEAR IN THE MARKETS IN MY 2025 PREVIEW BUT SAID SECOND HALF AND THAT WAS MY BEST GUESS...
As always this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE and NEVER WILL BE!
Everyone needs to play their own book and make their own ADULT decisions.
Pre-Market Update: SPY - 01092025 - $586-$586.50 Support RetestWatching the SPY going into Premarket, it lost support at the $588.62 Levels, so we're looking for that $586-586.50 to gauge if the Markets will lose steam and pullback even more (providing better buying opportunities on our other Trade Analysis). The question is always, "How far are really pulling back though?"
Today's Economic Calendar:
Event Type Date Time Description
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Industrial Production
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Merchandise Trade
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Industrial Production
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Merchandise Trade
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 04:00 AM Retail Sales
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 04:00 AM Retail Sales
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM Challenger Job-Cut Report
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM ECB Minutes
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM Challenger Job-Cut Report
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM ECB Minutes
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 07:30 AM Jobless Claims
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 07:30 AM Jobless Claims
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 09:00 AM Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 09:00 AM Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 3-Month Bill Announcement
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 6-Month Bill Announcement
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 3-Month Bill Announcement
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 6-Month Bill Announcement
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 03:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 03:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 05:30 PM Household Spending
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 05:30 PM Household Spending
Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 11:00 PM Equity Settlements
Stay tuned by connecting with us below to discover more at @MyMI Wallet!
Market Open Update: ES Buy Zone Here? APEX Trade of the DayHere's our APEX Trade of the Day!
The ES provided us with a healthy pullback providing a re-buy zone around the $5975 - $5982. We can use this as an overall market gauge to see some pushes higher in our trades that we have shared!
If you have seen them yet, be sure to follow for more as we can analyze the Market and finding what's available as to get positions in as we move forward into 2025!
Connect with us to stay tuned for more at @MyMIWallet #MyMIWallet
CHIP SECTOR TO CRASH SMH The chart posted is the SMH we are now in the final 5th wave and it is a classic 5th wave Diagonal in the 5th wave wave to form a double top into fib cycle peak .From here we should see a major break down in All chip stocks into Oct 2025 but we should see the first leg down low march 10/20th 2025 this should be a Very Bearish action world wide see spy and qqq as well . This is the warning to All traders EXIT INTO RALLIES THE BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER