Looking for 357.74 test on $SPY soonLooking for 357.74 test on $SPY minimally before we can expect a "bear market rally."
Spyanalysis
$SPYThe Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 10,2022
As CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM EST, tomorrow is a big day for traders and investors. Make sure not to trade on news or assumptions. Today we saw a massive sell-off at the end hour of the market trading session. There will be a bounce upward tomorrow for correction. The critical level of resistance, for now, is 405.18-405.71, and the main one is 407-408. I'm saying this because on multiple timeframes like 15m,30m,45,1hr, and 2hr, and RSI is sitting on 30, which means an oversold area. Don't get trapped in following the trend but wait for confirmation to short on the resistance area(to be on the safe side).
Moreover, looking at VIX, it got rejected at the resistance level of 26.25. If it breaks the resistance tomorrow, opening a short position might be a good idea. Another scenario is that it cools off in the area of 25.50 from their excellent idea to open a safe short position. This is just my opinion but looking at the sell-off volume was a sign of continuation of the sell-off.
MACRO BEARISH FORECAST (ELLIOT WAVE)A look at what could possibly lie ahead if macro economic conditions continue unfavorably and we ultimately head into a multi year recession/depression; using Elliot wave theory / an Elliot wave correction model.
$SPY rejecting 1D 55 ema and 4h 200emaAs the charts show, $SPY is rejecting 55ema on 1D and 4h 200ema on 4h. In addition to this, a lot of macro catalysts and headwinds are at play here with a quantitative tightening cycle beginning, the war between Ukraine and Russia, Monkeypox, Gun Violence, very high inflation, and the recession flags popping up everywhere in auto sales data for example. R/R favors the bears at this moment but it's still highly recommended to utilize upside hedges regardless of conviction due to the volatile and shaky price action we have been witnessing over the past few trading sessions especially.
SPY
SPY is trading sideways right now and broke uptrend as well. Broke below support which is $407, will lead to new lows. SPY might trade sideways till Thursday and significant action on Friday as its CPI day.
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 2,2022
Based on today's economic news:
ISM Manufacturing (Apr) 56.1 vs 54.5 Expected
JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) 11.4M vs 11.35M Expected
The market was up the first 30 minutes of the session, and then after the news, it got rejected on resistance and then bounced back from the support of 407. Also, keep in mind that vix is on a support level of 25.50. If 25 breaks market will go up. If not, SPY will make new lows.
Two Scenario for tomorrow:
-Break below 407 can lead to 398-400
-Break above 413 to 416( I don't think so, but I can be wrong as well)
$SPY 1D If you zoom out to 1D on $SPY you'll see that price formed a doji aka. indecision candle and generally is an early sign of a potential reversal. Remain cautious!
SPY Channel Analysis with Levels (Week in Review)Last week, we provided a SPY Channel/Trend Analysis for the upcoming week. This weekend, we will break the week down into 2 segments: 1) the move to challenge the upper channel & 2) the $SPY channel/trendline break.
In doing this, we will keep the 2 basic Channels/Trendlines on the chart, and overlay them with our Intraday Levels from our algo. This provides a greater perspective into how our preparedness meets the market throughout the week and why our confidence and expectancy in trading are so high.
First, we have color-coded our INTRADAY LEVELS for speed in determining direction and postioning. This is our "Legend" if you will:
GREEN/RED Lines are BUY/SELL Triggers
WHITE Lines are SUPPLY/DEMAND (These are KEY R1/S1 levels with more significance than I will go into here)
GRAY Lines are Support/Resistance (R2-R5/S2-S5)
ORANGE Lines are BUY Targets (R1 goes to T1 / R2 to T2 / R3 to T3, etc...)
PURPLE Lines are SELL Targets (S1 goes to T1 / S2 to T2 / S3 to T3, etc...)
SPY INTRADAY- MON & TUES in Review
MON- GAP Open and retreated back to the GREEN BUY TRIGGER, then hit WHITE SUPPLY (R1) & ORANGE LINE (TGT1) upside; $SPY was unable to push much over Gray Line (R2), but remained POSITIVE for the day
TUES- GAP Down, SPY hit S4/T4 on Tues at 1045am, and put in a bottom...rallied all the way back up to WHITE DEMAND (S1) level and finish POSITIVE for the day
SPY Channel Week in ReviewJust a follow up/review from last weekend's analysis on $SPY and a big part of our success is having a plan & knowing what to expect before it happens.
Just from the 2 basic Channels (using simple trendlines), you can see SPY was GREEN all 5 days last week. Spy hit the Intermediate Trendline last Friday (5/20) and bounced off there for an expected return to the upper (Minor) level...SPY closed above the descending channel on Wed, following the release of FOMC minutes. From there, we had Targets (white dotted lines) drawn at 405 / 411 / 415.15 / & 420.9. Thursday & Friday achieved the first 3 and these levels were simply drawn from previous key lows. Our next chart idea will actually overlay just 1 of our algo's data on the intraday SPY chart and show you how simple yet powerful are the levels.
$SPX PVI Volatility RangesAnother week of writing successful Credit Spreads on $SPX...almost 49% NET Returns YTD
SPY $430 by June 1Should see a continuation of this reversal pattern back up to .61 and the massive volume profile level at $430. Following that, I expect a period of consolidation to the EoM. Not trading advice.
SPY Channels in your Weekly Game Plan$SPY bottomed on FOMC week and established the immediate trend's lower channel. The bounce off the lows moved SPY to the upper channel & a continuation wedge formation (stair-stepping downward). Friday's bottom wick attacked the intermediate trend that was established near the Jan lows. We have an "impingement" upcoming in the SPY Wedge Formation this week...does the larger, intermediate channel dominate the April/May channel? If so, expect a move back over 395 and possibly a run at the 405 level which is the 20DMA & the weekly low set on May 1st. If the move up towards 395 fails, expect the intermediate channel to be re-tested (should be under 380 by then) and then continue the Wedge Formation down towards the 374 area which might spark high volume selling and take SPY under 370.
Dotted horizontal lines are key weekly lows since February and placed for your visual reference of potential Profit Taker areas.
Key SPY levels for the upcoming 2 weeks: 360/ 368 / 374 / 377 / 380 / 385.15 / 405 / 411 / 420
watching 385.27 demand level and daily linear regression channelWatching 385.27 support and bottom of the daily linear regression channel for support. If buyers don't step in at 385.27, expect a move sub $380 on $SPY next.
SPYGAMEPLAN FOR FRIDAY, MAY 20,2022
Today was just a sideways trend. If the light uptrend breaks, tomorrow's market is seeing new lows.
Keep in mind if you are an options trader, don't try to hold anything. Just scalp and swing them/ Market makers are doing their best to decrease the premium by trading the market sideways.
A break above 396 is bullish, and a break below 395 is bearish.
$SPY at a very important spot$SPY - Over 403.18 expect re-test of 410.64 daily support now turned resistance. Alternatively, Under 395.65 expect 4h 385.15 support test.
SPY Game Plan for May 13, 2022
Make sure to observe the 392.50 area as spy resistance for now. If that resistance breaks, we must wait and have patience, then go long and never chase. Overall, spy daily RSI at 30. Significant consideration note to take. But still, plenty of room to go down as RSI is calculated and first, down to 30 can be a fakeout, then 50, fall again back to 30 RSI, which means price movement will be way different and can go down far beyond imagination.
Two Scenario for tomorrow:
First one: Observe the market from 7:00 am-9:30 am EST. If we see a sell of pre-market, then for sure, on market hours, we can touch the resistance of 392.50. then back down again.
Second: If the resistance gets destroyed, wait for the cool off previous resistance to become support and go long from 392-394.
OPTIONS
Look at May 20, 2022, 380 puts if 392.50 area gets rejected and go long when resistance gets denied, then play with May 20, 2022, 405 calls.
SPY 2008 dailys vs current daily with Burry tweet bout Nadir 180Two questions I had:
how low will this go? I have no idea, so I used Burry's tweet suggestion.
how many years will it take to recover SPY to the current level? I have no idea, so stretched out the pattern based on Burry's tweet suggestion.
I still suck at charting, so don't use this. I actually thought we had one more last bounce, but looks like it's already dropping already.
For this chart:
I took a bigger picture view (curious how long it took for 2008 crash to recover to the same level as current pattern.
Biggest assumption here is using Burry's recent tweet, which said something about Nadir being 10% below the most recent market crash.'
The most recent crash was March 23 2020 (wonderful Covid lockdown times) when Spy was about 220 to 230
So 10-15% below (based on Burry's hypothesis) puts the bottom around 180.
So, I used the same bars pattern to make the very bottom at 180, and then it gave the timeframe.
Don't trade on this, it's just a hypothesis/theory, and I still am new to charting.
MAy 5,2022 SPY Game plan Yesterday's game plan went fantastic. We are officially in an uptrend (short term) minor correction of a downtrend. We can see a dip at the opening as it needs to cool off for the next leg up. Drips I'm looking at, the levels are 425.66-425.95; if this one slides, then will see 421.78- 422.56. Volume was there, and we saw a massive rally at the end of the day. Make sure you are on the right side of the market. Shorting here should be considered high risk and if you want to short, wait for the trend to break. Playing with calls tomorrow can be fun but make sure to look at the trend always. For now, we are incredibly bullish.
The Frightening Similarity between the SPY in 2008 vs 2022! 😨Hey everyone!
Almost 1:1 fractal between the crash in 2008 and today.
The scales have almost tipped. Stay ready.
Just remember, be fearful when people are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful. It seems to me that many believe that the bull run is not over. Interest rates are increasing to counter inflation. Interest rate hikes slow down the economy. We are almost there.
✌️ Seb
$SPY 500: Strong Bullish Divergence!⭐7.86 Fib Mounted as strong support confirmed by a significant amount of volume (425) This support is valid by the VPVR and Bullish Divergence on the MFI.
⭐6.18 Fib Support mounted with large volume. This support 435 is valid due to the large VPVR node + volume.
⭐446 Resistance confirmed by VPVR and selling volume + Ichimoku Cloud Resistance.
⭐453 Resistance confirmed by 2.32 Fib and large VPVR node + selling volume.
⭐For bullish price action a 3D close above 446 is needed to reclaim Ichimoku Cloud support.
⭐Strong Bullish Divergence on the MFI hints for a breakout
⭐Options Chain bullish 70k Volume + 20k Open Interest at 450 which makes it a likely target. Lower targets than this are unlikely due to the bullish options chain.
*WARNING* This thread is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor.
S&P500 Short SignalJust set my sell limit. Price has made a new swing low and will likely pullback into the 15m order block and make a lower swing high in comparison to the previous one. We then enter there and target a newer swing low. Goodluck and have proper risk management!
SPY Short TargetI believe we will drop to atleast $400 in the coming weeks/months. Be careful as volatility is at an extreme. Goodluck everyone!
