$SPY Forecast For Years To Comeplease dont take my opinion as financial advice i'm just a 17 year old with some speculations.
with that being said let me explain myself.
With the fed pausing still i believe we will keep rallying till we see our first cut once we get that first cut it'll be the market top.
The fed has been sitting on their hands for way too long and with inflation sneaking back up i dont see it getting better until its too late. stuff will start breaking soon and it'll just put us more and more into a downward spiral.
going into 2025 we will be in a bear market and throughout 2025 we will be trying to fight a spike of inflation which will scare the market and bring us down to 2022 highs and if shit hits the fan we will continue to see downside going into 2026. the battle against inflation isnt a quick fix and this will take time (a couple years)
we will eventually recover but it wont be till we see the fed's inflation goal of 2% for a couple months of consistency that'll be our green light for ATH.
I will be scaling into end of year shorts starting at $550, $560, and final $570 im not missing this opportunity with the stock market this overbought knowing that the dot plot forecasts higher inflation to come next year. Taking profits on the way down as more data comes out.
Thank you for your time and i will be open to hearing others opinion.
Spyanalysis
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S&P500 ETF Trust (SPY) Fell 0.55% Today is the Bullish Run Over?Economic indicators are crucial for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending May 23, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 0.52%, while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 1.75%. This article examines three indicators from last week — existing home sales, new home sales, and consumer sentiment. These data points provide an update on the current state of the housing market and consumer attitudes about the current and future strength of the economy.
Existing home sales fell for a second straight month in April as elevated mortgage rates and increased home prices continue to weaken demand. The median price for an existing home sold last month was $407,600, an all-time high for the month of April, marking the 10th consecutive month of year-over-year increases for existing homes. New home sales fell 4.7% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000 units, falling short of the expected 677,000 units. April’s sales are 7.7% below what they were a year ago, marking the first annual decline in over a year.
Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in six months, according to this month’s final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey measuring consumers’ opinions with regard to the economy, personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. A closer look at May’s report revealed that consumers are concerned over the labor market, high interest rates, income growth, and inflation.
The outlook for the stock market's most important driver just keeps getting better. S&P 500 earnings grew 6% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to data from FactSet. When excluding dismal earnings from Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMY), the results were even better, with earnings growing 10%, per Bank of America. Consensus now sees earnings growing 11.4% in 2024, up from a projection of 10.9% on April 5. In 2025, earnings growth estimates have moved up to 14.2% in 2025 from the 11.6% growth seen that day.
On Tuesday, UBS Investment Bank US equity strategist Jonathan Golub boosted his year-end S&P 500 target to 5,600 from 5,400, citing "stronger earnings." This trend is supported by further market upside, as economic "tail risks" have declined, with consensus estimates for economic growth increasing throughout the year. Deutsche Bank's chief global strategist Binky Chadha recently told Yahoo Finance that further growth than expected in the economy could help the S&P 500 reach 6,000 by the end of the year.
Technically, the S&P500 ETF Trust index price charts depicts the ending of the 5th wave Bullish Divergence pattern which resonates with Elliot Waves theory. The Relative Strength Index which sits at 58.60 signifies weaker growth from the consumer Index.
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Weekly - Potential Resistance Price TestSPY (S&P500 ETF) has been in an uptrend since 2023 and is approaching its all-time-high price resistance again.
$523.07 is the current all-time-high price resistance.
$497.83 is the current support level price, and also the 0.236 fibonacci level.
Bullish Scenario: If SPY price breaks out above $523.07, the next resistance price targets could be: $537, $550, $563, $575.
Bearish Scenario: If SPY price reversse back down, a potential lower-low in the price could be set over time. Support price levels could be: $508, $497, $489, $476, $466.
Note: corporate earnings, FOMC interest rate changes, government legislation, breaking news, and global events could override technical chart patterns.
Date created: 05/10/2024
SPX - Enjoy the rally while it last!For those who have been here since 2022 early 2023 when there was so much fear in the market and we called the market had bottomed. I think it was the right call, even though we had a lot of naysayers. Now I think we are nearing the end of this rally which I estimate will be sometime in February 2024. I have two outcomes the green line below which I highly favor and believe that is the path and the grey line which is definitely possible but unlike in my opinion due to election year. Also it looks like we are following the cup and handle. I have also explained in my other ideas why I think we are like in 1990 and 2012 (base on the fear). If the grey line happens, Biden loses the election guaranteed so I am certain the fed will hold the stock market at least until after the election.
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SPY Week-Ending April 19The gap zone from the Island Pattern earlier this year seems interesting because 510-505 are less thoroughly traded so far this year and will likely be the area we return to when this pullback is done. Bearish price action is all but confirmed, but can we expect an elevator down first thing on Monday?
$SPY overall bearish until sub 320I'm not a fundamental type of guy, I just look at what the chart give me, and as far as I see it from a Technical analyst perspective, this is nothing more but a simple ABC corrective wave from the super extended bull run we had previously. (Thus put the market in a bear market) We could either come back up to the 420 area to clear the shorts which would complete the B Wave, Giving us the opportunity for a easy short all the way to the .618 retracement level which would put is at sub 320 for the rest of the year. the other Scenario is we could reject the 400 area and come down to the 380 area and crab there before legging down again. Either way I am Micro bullish but overall bearish for the rest of this year. FOMC Tomorrow so hopefully we can start seeing some Acceleration in the charts.
Is this BEARISH divergence forming on the $SPY of any concern?Looking at the 1M on the AMEX:SPY , it's leading me to think if we close below last months low, we should be confirming regular bearish divergence, giving us a target of at least to the 21e . Please see chart for reference of current target.
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