Spyforcast
MyMI After-Hours Update: S&P 500 Potential Pullback?As the White House proposes 25% Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum imported to the US, and with the current resistance we're seeing around the $6069 Price Level, we're now looking for a potential pullback as more import duties are to be included along with Steel and Aluminum come Tuesday / Wednesday of this week.
If we do see a pullback, we're looking to see if it break support on the 50% Retracement and even further below are the $6021 Price Levels, but even more so, the $5960s.
Going to be an interesting one to watch! Stay connected by registering your FREE account on our website to access even more resources and tools to improve managing your financials and investments.
LINK IN BIO!
SPY Gap Filled - Local Bottom - More SendTrading Fam,
I am not overlooking the small H&S pattern seen on this chart. I am simply presenting alternative data. What if that H&S pattern fails? It can happen. Even if we do drop further, our target down is that pink horizontal trendline. Will we get there before more buying ensues? Possibly. But this market is still bullish. The larger bull trend is still very much in tact.
Additionally, we can see that an important gap has been filled. Therefore, it is very possible that the small H&S pattern we see here will not reach its target down. If that is the case, we'll turn up again, continue through my Target #2 which was already hit, and proceed onward and upward to my final Target #3 (670-700) until that is reached sometime in 2025. Therefore, you are not wrong to start DCA'ing in at this point.
✌️ Stew
SPY H&S is breaking. The market may have just flipped!H&S Broke it's neckline and the overall $580 Support.
We are seeing this break of support across the NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM as well.
This is all leading me to believe strongly that we are now in a crash or correction in these markets. I personally sold out of all my TRADES and am HOLDING and DCAing in all my INVESTMENTS.
The difference here is my Trades where to the upside and with the markets telling us where we are most likely heading now I am not staying in trades to find out if it will be for 5% or more to the downside from here as this would lead to all long trades getting pulled to the depths of hell.
There are no certainties, and before, based on what I was seeing, I said I believed we would bounce and hold this area (Which could still be the case), but all reasoning behind that has been ruptured, and I have nothing left to believe in that besides small criteria.
To be a good or profitable trader, you need to be not stubborn, follow a set trading strategy, and be reactive to the markets and what they are telling us—not go against the overall trend! All we have are charts and indicators to help us make our best assumptions of what will happen. More criteria pointing in one direction is the way you have to assume we will go...well we went from pointing up and for an imminent bounce to most criteria pointing down for what will either be one of the biggest fake outs ever's or a correction/ crash in the markets after a massive 2 year bull run. Only time will tell at this point, but I wanted to make this post to inform everyone here about what I personally did and what I'm seeing.
I DID TALK ABOUT A CORRECTION/ CRASH THIS YEAR IN THE MARKETS IN MY 2025 PREVIEW BUT SAID SECOND HALF AND THAT WAS MY BEST GUESS...
As always this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE and NEVER WILL BE!
Everyone needs to play their own book and make their own ADULT decisions.
Market Open Update: ES Buy Zone Here? APEX Trade of the DayHere's our APEX Trade of the Day!
The ES provided us with a healthy pullback providing a re-buy zone around the $5975 - $5982. We can use this as an overall market gauge to see some pushes higher in our trades that we have shared!
If you have seen them yet, be sure to follow for more as we can analyze the Market and finding what's available as to get positions in as we move forward into 2025!
Connect with us to stay tuned for more at @MyMIWallet #MyMIWallet
SPY Triple Bottom, Rally time?!AMEX:SPY SP:SPX
I'd really like us to end the week above $580 in order to have this either Double or Triple bottom friends!
I could see a flash crash down to fill the price GAP at $574.81 as well.
Either way from what I'm seeing on the TVC:VIX , Economic numbers, and the charts I believe we are getting close to a bottom friends.
Consolidate down to only the best names until we receive that confirmation. They did a fake out today and another FED putting FUD into the market didn't help with the GDP projection.
Not financial advice.
2025 STOCK MARKET PREVIEW – It's a BEAST!2025 Stock Market Preview – It's a BEAST!
You are going to want to watch this video as it's JAM packed with great information for the new year! It may be long but aren't you trying to learn and become a better investor or trader?!
Get ready for 1 HOUR of action-packed, game-changing insights:
-Economic data
-Technical analysis on NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM
-My 2025 predictions
-How to prep for the next stock market crash
-How I'll be monitoring the markets
What do you think will happen in 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
You won't find this much FREE CONTENT anywhere else! Let's dive in!
HAPPY HOLIDAYS! Stock Market Weekly Preview: Dec. 23rd 📊Stock Market Weekly Preview: Dec. 23rd
NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM
In this video, we’re talking about:
🔹Stock Market & Overall Forecast
🔹Lessons Learned this past week
🔹Technical Analysis: H5 & Williams CB
🔹Current Trades
P.S. I'm getting coal for XMAS because I lied about it being a short video. 😅
Let’s dive into this Holliday Week! 👇
SPY S&P 500 ETF End of the Year Price Target If you haven`t bought the recent dip on SPY:
Now with Goldman Sachs lowering U.S. recession odds from 20% to 15% and raising their 2024 year-end S&P 500 target to 6000 from 5600, the outlook for the market appears increasingly optimistic.
The reduced recession risk suggests stronger economic stability, and the upward revision in the S&P target points to continued growth potential.
Given these factors, I agree that a year-end price target of 600 on SPY is achievable.
How to PREDICT MARKETS! Tops and BottomsIn this video, I go over the following in great detail:
Predicting Markets with Williams %R, RSI, and MACD
Predicting market movements can be challenging, but combining the Williams %R, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicators can provide powerful insights for traders.
Williams %R measures the current closing price relative to the high-low range over a specific period, helping identify overbought or oversold conditions. RSI gauges the speed and change of price movements, also indicating overbought or oversold levels. MACD analyzes the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price, identifying potential buy or sell signals.
By using these three indicators together, traders can:
Confirm Trends: When all three indicators align, it strengthens the signal for a potential trend continuation or reversal.
Identify Entry and Exit Points: Overbought or oversold signals from these indicators can help pinpoint optimal entry and exit points.
Reduce False Signals: Combining multiple indicators can help filter out false signals, increasing the reliability of predictions.
Comprehensive Technical Analysis: SPX 10-Minute ChartThis SPX 10-minute chart shows a clear intraday shift from a bearish to a bullish trend, accompanied by multiple technical signals. Let’s break down the analysis across different technical components:
1. Trend Analysis:
Initial Downtrend: The session started with bearish momentum as indicated by Put Signals and declining price action. The lower lows created a brief bearish trend that ended with a strong reversal.
Bullish Reversal: The reversal is confirmed by a series of Call Signals after a strong bullish breakout from the previous consolidation zone. The price broke above a significant resistance level around 5,731.94, leading to a steady uptrend.
2. Moving Averages:
Short-Term Moving Average (Orange Line):
This acts as immediate support during the bullish run. The price consistently stays above this line, indicating short-term bullish strength.
The slope of the moving average is steep, reflecting increasing bullish momentum.
Mid-Term Moving Average (Blue Line):
Positioned further below, the blue moving average provides a broader support level. This indicates that the medium-term trend remains supportive of the upward move, showing a well-established bullish context.
3. Heikin Ashi Candles:
Bullish Momentum: The Heikin Ashi candles display a strong bullish pattern with several consecutive yellow candles and minimal lower wicks, indicating reduced volatility on the downside.
Temporary Pullback: A few red candles appear, marking brief consolidation but not a trend reversal. The continuation of yellow candles afterward confirms sustained bullish pressure.
4. Key Signals and Levels:
Entry Long: A long entry signal is observed after the breakout around 5,731.94, which was an excellent point for entering the bullish trade.
Exit Long: The Exit Long signal near 5,776.76 suggests taking profits after the bullish move. This level now serves as short-term resistance.
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: 5,755.43 – A pullback to this level would still align with the bullish structure as long as it holds.
Major Support: 5,731.94 – This level marks the breakout point, acting as a strong floor for further bullish moves.
5. Volume and Momentum:
Although volume is not displayed, typically such strong moves (as indicated by Heikin Ashi and moving averages) are accompanied by rising volume.
Momentum: Bullish momentum remains high, supported by consistent upward price movement and the sustained hold above the moving averages.
6. Resistance and Future Outlook:
Immediate Resistance: The price is facing resistance at 5,776.76. A break above this could open the path to higher levels, potentially testing psychological levels like 5,800.
Continuation or Pullback: If the price breaks above 5,776, we can expect a continuation of the uptrend. However, a failure at this resistance might lead to a short-term pullback to 5,755 or even 5,731.
Conclusion:
The chart reflects a strong bullish reversal with clear signals of upward momentum. Traders should watch the 5,776 level for a breakout confirmation or potential pullback to the key support levels at 5,755 and 5,731. Maintaining the trend above the orange and blue moving averages will be crucial for sustained bullish movement.
SPY: 2007 vs. 2024 Rate Cut CyclesEconomic Indicators Comparison (2007 vs. 2024):
In both 2007 and 2024, several key economic indicators show notable similarities, suggesting the market faces comparable macroeconomic challenges:
Unemployment Rate (September 2007: 4.7%; September 2024: 4.2%)
US Inflation Rate YoY (September 2007: 2.5%; September 2024: 2.5%)
US Housing Starts (September 2007: 1.238M; September 2024: 1.235M)
US Leading Economic Activity (September 2007: 100.4; September 2024: 100.4)
US Existing Home Sales (September 2007: 4.5M; September 2024: 3.95M)
These parallels reinforce the notion that the 2024 market may experience similar stress as 2007 unless significant positive economic developments occur.
Overview:
The charts and additional data provided give a compelling comparison of two major market cycles: 2007 and 2024. Both cycles show striking similarities in market behavior, particularly surrounding the first rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We see a top in the S&P 500 (SPX) in July of both years, followed by corrections, recoveries, and rate cuts in September.
2007 Market Behavior:
July 17, 2007 - SPX Tops: The S&P 500 peaked in mid-July 2007, reaching new highs as the economy, on the surface, seemed stable.
-9.5% Correction: Shortly after the top, the market corrected, declining by 9.5% in response to growing concerns about the subprime mortgage crisis.
Full Recovery: The market briefly recovered as investors expected the Federal Reserve to step in with supportive policies.
September 18, 2007 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in September 2007, sparking optimism that monetary easing could prevent further economic deterioration.
Market Collapse: Despite the rate cuts, the crisis deepened, leading to a full-scale market collapse as the global financial crisis unfolded.
2024 Market Behavior (So Far):
July 17, 2024 - SPX Tops: Once again, we see the S&P 500 peak in mid-July 2024, a period marked by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.
-8.6% Correction: Similar to 2007, the market corrected by 8.6%, driven by fears of a potential economic slowdown and the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments.
Full Recovery: The market saw a brief recovery, as investors anticipated rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures.
September 18, 2024 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates on September 18, 2024, echoing the 2007 scenario. However, whether the market will collapse, stabilize, or recover remains to be seen.
Comparative Analysis:
Topping Patterns: Both 2007 and 2024 show a clear topping pattern in July, followed by sharp corrections and subsequent rate cuts in September. This parallel highlights the cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy.
Rate Cut Effects: Historically, the first rate cut has not always led to an immediate market recovery. In 2007, despite initial optimism, the market eventually collapsed as the underlying economic problems, specifically the subprime crisis, worsened. The question now is whether the 2024 market will follow the same path, especially considering ongoing inflation and potential economic stagnation.
Key Observations:
Corrections and Recoveries: Both markets experienced similar corrections post-top. The 8.6% correction in 2024 mirrors the 9.5% drop in 2007, showing that investor sentiment and market behavior can repeat under similar macroeconomic pressures.
Rate Cut Timing: In both years, rate cuts followed periods of market instability, with the hope that monetary easing would stabilize the economy. However, uncertainty looms in 2024, as it is yet unclear whether these cuts will prevent a deeper recession or lead to further volatility.
Potential for Market Collapse in 2024: While the 2007 market collapse was driven by the subprime mortgage crisis, the 2024 market faces different challenges, such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical instability, and evolving global trade dynamics. There remains a risk that the 2024 market could experience a sharp downturn if these issues worsen.