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Spyforcast

2/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 20202/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 2020 through the middle of 2021. 1. The gap down and down week on higher volume is telling of a coming consolidation/correction. 2. The usual 4th wave pullback formed a triangle and its measured target hit almost exactly. 3. 5th wave of primary looks to be complete. At a key area here. the 2020 up trend line will be tested here. The degree of the line and length of it tells that it may not hold much longer. An ABC correction would seem to be applicable here testing 358 then eventually 339 and maybe 330 to fill the Nov. 2020 multiple gaps.
AMEX:SPY
by jhinshaw74
1
SPY to 430 by EOY 2021We are breaking the long-term ascending wedge: - We're at resistance that's been in place since May 2019 - We're barely holding support since COVID low (this is 4th touch) -> I expect we will continue to break down out of this ascending wedge. It may be tomorrow, it may be sometime in March, but it'll happen -> Frankly, we need some consolidation with all (pick your favorite) indicator(s) signaling overbought conditions lately New Pattern: - The lows since June 2020 (roughly when we began understanding COVID and when the market became 'stable' in the new normal) create a new line of support (4x touches so far) - This will be the new support line to watch and indicates we could go as low as ~355 (7% drop from today's 382 close) on SPY if we have a continued sharp drop (aren't all drops sharp?!) - If we hold this pattern, we'll end the year with SPY between 415 and 445 (8% to 16% upside from where it is today) Macroeconomics & Fundamentals: - The FED will continue to support the markets - Big names are ready to come back and will do so with higher margins - The 'laggards' during the last 12 month's tech boom are finding their time (financials, oil, airlines/hotels, and even commodities) - Inflation and rates increases are actually a good thing - There is still a ton of cash on the sidelines waiting to be put to work: Wall Street wants to continue the ride, and Retail traders are clearly conditioned to buying the dip (looking at you GME)
AMEX:SPYLong
by HandsomeSloth
2
ES Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/15/2021 SessionContract - CME_MINI:ESH2021 - High - 3797.75 - Low - 3792.00 Evening Stats - Gap: = +0.08% - Session Open ATR: 48.99 - Volume: 104K - Open Int: 2.5M - Trend Grade: Bullish Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range) - Long: 4020 - Short: 3620 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2021Short
by mv3trader5
Rocky Roads Ahead for SPXFor every one that wants a quick analysis. Basically, SPX is going to be bouncing in this 3400-3205 range for a little while. I believe that we are entering into a consolidation period before a big move. To early to tell which way it is going to go. For everyone that wants a more detailed analysis here it is. SPX broke through its major support line, the grey line on the graph, which then made the pink line the new support. However, it broke through that new support which created a nice price channel, represented in purple, which was somewhat quickly broken through. The break through was very bullish. As seen it was a big gap up and closed very green. However, since then it has been fighting the new support, now resistance, and the 50 MA. On top of that we also have a strong resistance area at 3400. Now today we tested getting over that pink line resistance, the 50 MA, and almost tested 3400 but it failed. This in my opinion is not a great sign. I'd put my money on a pretty bearish day tomorrow. We are going to stay in this new horizontal price channel, represented by green, for possibly up to a few weeks if there is no clean break out soon. I'd expect it to be very consolidated unless some miraculous news comes out. If you are trading keeps those stop losses tight. Happy trading
TVC:SPX
by Absolute_Degen
9/23 UPDATED BEAR THESIS $316-317 next stopKey points The DXY may bounce on resistance as shown Oil may bounce on support as shown Bonds remain unchanged as shown Need to gauge Asia's reaction from our sell off today for confirmation on tomorrows trade For those that don't understand intermarket relationships. From left to right and can start at any point. Currency ------> commodities -----------> bonds -----------> Equity -------> currency --------> commodities ---------> bonds -----------> equity. Huge markets reacting to one another, all interconnected, all correlated globally. Given the circumstances, Spy is sitting in no-mans land right now with a straight shot to 316-317, but given that the DXY and OIL is looking to bounce off support/resistance means its bullish for SPY(meaning a relief bounce is probable, but will only be able to tell at tomorrows open, we need to see how asian markets will react to our sell off today) The Dollar had a textbook breakout to the upside. When the Dollar rises, equity falls.(not all the time). When Oil loses value ----> spy loses value) My chart merely shows that OIL is near a support line and that Dollar is near a resistance = Probability of Spy having a relief bounce. The Risk vs reward is still heavily favored to the bears.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
Short/medium term Bearish thesisSeptember 28th Resistance/support will intersect and we will see downwards movement into new territory. The risk vs reward for shorting is much greater than going long at the moment. Short term Bearish/neutral Medium term Bearish Long term Bullish I believe we are setting up another Jan 2018 OR OCT 2018. Red arrows indicating heavy resistance Red Arrows resistance Blue diagnal line - current downwards trend White line- Major resistance Red line - resistance Orange line - weaker resistance Green line - March - september bullish trend. Green line intersects with white line on a catalyst day (fed speaking). We are now in a trend reversal, but need to keep an eye on these levels.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
3
My General view of SPY In my philosophical view, humans tend to always need an "answer" for everything in life. Historically we created gods to explain the unexplainable. That's not to say that i am an atheist in my religious view, nor am i trying to make this a religious discussion, I'm purely commenting on human nature. We are a curious species and we learned to not take "no" or "i don't know" as an answer from a very early age of our ancestry. If you look around you, it feels we "must" have an answer for everything in life, including the unexplainable (consciousness). Scientific people call it "coincidence", religious people call it a "miracle from god". To advance in our life we need to see these two groups of people from a third persons perspective, and understand both sides. It doesn't always have to be black or white, right or wrong. It's okay "not to know", as long as you are the path to enlightenment through spiritual or scientific, that's all that matters. I am only a man, born into this world trying to make sense of something insensible for my time. So why is my philosophical view important in the way that I trade? I see many traders nowadays pointing to the news as an "answer" for their directional bias in the markets. Trump said this, trump said that, markets go up, markets go down. The media business sells you the answers, and you buy them because its encoded in our ancestral genes to buy them. To reach a new level of consciousness, you would need to understand the words. " I am only a man, and too stupid of a species to understand anything but." We are a mere spec in the timeline of "(life?)". My thesis is based purely on objective data with a technical analysis standpoint (sometimes with the exception of federal news.) Before trying to understand the way that i trade, you would need to understand my philosophical standpoint, and to also assume that nowadays, there is a gap between the real economy and the stock market. The stock market ≠(does not equal) the economy. You would also need to understand the options market and that algorithms created by market makers are always trying to stay delta neutral hedging their positions. And finally the last thing you must understand is intermarket analysis to fully understand my trading view. So if we can all come to the agreement that we are trading against algorithms, we could also say that we are trading against logic. In this case it is MUCH easier to trade against logic than against emotional traders because every move in the market is based on a formula instead of being based on a opinionated rational/irrational decision to sell or buy. Do I know the formula? No I don't, and that's okay. What i do know, is the results of the formula at work. Sometimes its easy to spot when live trading, sometimes it can only be spot with hindsight bias, sometimes the answer is never found, AND THATS O.K. For example, i don't see where or why "2+2" is happening, but i keep seeing "4" as the answer. So if we can all come to the agreement that we are trading against algorithms, we could also say that we are trading against logic. In this case it is MUCH easier to trade against logic than against emotional traders because every move in the market is based on a formula instead of being based on a opinion based rational/irrational decision to sell or buy. TL;DR We are not trading based off psychology any longer, we are trading based off logic. (algorithms & formulas) My thesis is based purely on objective data with a technical standpoint (with the exception of federal news.) AMEX:SPY Multiple resistances/support areas for the S&P. We have always respected the white resistance since the 2008 financial crisis. The solid green line in the middle is what i consider the "goldilocks" zone. A habitable zone in which "fair price" has been achieved in the context of the uptrend we are seeing since the 2008 financial crisis. In conclusion, to not make my first post too long i will write some pointers in how i trade. I trade Spx products vs volatility I trade Spx products vs forex I trade Spx products vs bonds I trade Spx products vs commodities I trade Spx products logically ( I heavily disagree with EWT methodology) I trade Spx products using intermarket relationships I use historical resistance/supports in all markets to gauge activity in what i'm trading. As time goes on i will post many charts of what i wrote above, and too make things less confusing i will explain as i go.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
4
SPY AnalysisPrice has been on a long bull run so its about time for a pullback. Price made a big move to the downside but is still in an overall uptrend. Although I know price is still in an uptrend I am looking to go short on SPY if it pulls up into my sell zone before reaching one of my buy zones. I am also not going to just buy SPY at those zones just because price comes into them. I will wait for price to show strong signs of a continuation in the uptrend. Hope this helps you in the coming weeks! Don't forget to like and follow!
AMEX:SPY
by DNiceChampion
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1!) Price for the futures has been consolidating above the previous high, from the current fall we experienced after the very tall COVID-19 rebound. A much needed pullback was needed considering we came off the bottom of March extremely fast. We are still in an overall uptrend, confirming that with price not falling below the $300 level with the pullback and staying above, with a fake-out towards the end of the fall. Overall a uptrend is still intact, this simply could mean a dip. Staying above the previous high with current fundamentals in tact; NY started phase 1 reopening, China said it would start to be the biggest buying in soybeans again (Trade Deal), higher consumer sentiment and spending gradually increasing along with jobs slowly coming back is all progress forward. The jobs number won't immediately go back to where they were quickly, that major factor has been priced into the market. I believe all funds and major players are aware they wont come back as fast but doesn't mean we aren't making positive growth. Currently the dollar is getting extremely hurt from this but is inversely related to the growth of the S&P. A ton of money was being pumped into the economy all over the world mostly in USD or debt that was formed to USD. The Euro of course has followed the exact path of the market and has been booming. All countries invest between each other within their respected Treasuries. Seeing the central banks are inside the Treasury, makes sense the banks are then in control of investments coming into the country and vice versa as we invest in other countries through bond offerings.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by hunnndini
SPY Short, Starting May 11 2020With the SPY losing traction im thinking we do one jump up back to $296 and then a straight shot back down towards $255 we have yet to fill the gap and as we always know, gaps are always going to get filled i think that once we reach that $255 gap its back to ATHs until Q2 where earnings might be a lot worse than people are anticipating especially with Disney suffering this much of a loss with their arks being closed like a month before Q1 ended I think disney as well as every other company will rebound off these lows and well see a bullish market until Q3 where earnings might not be as great as people think ultimately back to SPY, i think we do one more shoot upwards towards the $296 mark, then start seliing off Monday back down towards the $255 range to fill that gap that will be the new low and we wont go any lower
AMEX:SPYShort
by mandujanotony31
1
SPY technicaly based forecast 📌Short intro: I am full time trader - analyst * High accuracy of ideas * Technicaly and Fudnamentaly side in analysis * Comment if have any questions or want to send support * Price action - FIBO - Candl pattern * FX - STOCK - CRYPTO * Simple ideas 💡 SPY technicaly indicators showing we can expect higher bulish market continuation, FIBO 0.382 which is in many cases strong supp is breaked, good bulish candels formation, expecting to see push in price till FIBO 0.6 or till first yellow trend line. 📌Have on mind, trading involves risk, check idea on your own tactic, if have questions pls comment! Thanks on supporting! All best, good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn3983388
6