Stock Market Weekly Outlook | Rising Wedge Volatility coming |- QQQ Rising wedge pattern about to break soon
- QQQ bulls still in full control on daily chart daily uptrend intact
- QQQ needs to break May 9th pivot low for us to go from up trend to neutral trend
- Does XLF XLE sector join team bull when QQQ pulls back or they all pull back together?
- Size of the QQQ pull back will be most key for me next week if QQQ can hold above May 9th pivot low and bounce we can potentially head for 330 level.
Spyforcast
Current daily channel on spy hope it helps you understand the current volatility rnage of the asset.
keep in mind that he can change profiles quite easily (a good indication of this is a sudden increase in "speed" and volume).
I personally like the idea of looking for entries with confirmation at the bottom (aimed at the top of the channel), but also gives an idea of the area where more attention is needed
SPY is Doing ABC Medium Term CorrectionTechnical Analysis:
- As you can see in the chart, SPY is doing a short term wave 3 in red
- We expect that it will extend lower to finish correction around $300 ~$310 in the orange circle to complete the ABC correction of the wave II in red
- H1 & H4 Right Side is Turning Down
Technical Information:
- SPY is a ETF and it has a very strong correlation with SPX Indices
Daily SPY technical analysisSpy today if open or push 396.42 then we can find buy / long and take profit at 401.38 but if the market opens below 396.42 then we can sell at market and take profit must be 391.44. all two scenario stop losses have to be $1 for each change of entry-level. If the market break 391.44 then the next level of support is 387.27.
SPY S&P 500 ETF Analysis Monday, March 20th, 2023Trade Idea
We have three short/ sell points 388.55, 386.41 and 386.41. If we sell / short entry from 388.55 then the stops loss must be 389.99 points. if our entry from 387.29 level stop loss level maybe 387.77. our last trade entry point is 386.41 level and this level stops loss is 387.04. Our take profit zone is 383.69 and 380.69. If the market breaks 383.69 support level then the next target is 380.69.
SPY analysisSpy report for Monday
Pushing or opening above 391.49 will go to 394.73 if the price closes above 394.73 prices will shoot to 402.79
breaking 385.26 prices will shoot to 379.58 and closing below 379.58 prices can reach 368.29
closing under 363.94 market will collapse that is IF WE DO
then we are looking @ 290 to 295 on SPY for Final Target.
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price PredictionOn March 7th we have the Fed Chair Powell Testimony, that could reveal that the FOMC is going to hike the interest rates for a longer period of time, and maybe give us a clue if it`s the case for a 50bps increase after the next meeting.
On March 10th we have the Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate that could also fuel a potential 50bps hike if they come better than expected.
In this context, my price target for SPY is $386 by Mid-April.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$SPY PUTS If we held above $400 it would signal a larger move up. Likelihood of that happening is quite low in my opinion. With a big week of low expected earnings, possible negative news coming from Powell, and many companies looking lacklustre with weak guidance, I expect that we can see a strong rejection of the $400 level.
Closed one put already from $399 to $396 and will gradually re-open a few Puts for March/April expiration between $397-$399
Looking for a TP level around $370 or at the .618 fib line. Not because it would be a bottom, but a good level to take profit as we approach expiration and where we might see a possible bounce.
Stop loss would be $400 as I don't expect us to head back above this level. However, if we do, the risk/reward ratio is worth it.
Good luck everyone.
SPY $ Target 2023we got rejected for the 5th time at our bearish channel, if we don't clear that channel above the 400$, is means we going to have a test first for the support above the 355$ then to the bottom price around the (320$/340$) .
on the other hand if we broke that channel , is means that will be the first sign for bullish reversal , and the second signal which is the most strongest one is breaking the 430$ resistant .
SPY - Price Targets & Stop Loss📈 What’s up investors! 📉
Welcome back to another one of
💡“Mike’s Ideas”.💡
I post as I find signals… these signals are based on the personal rules I have built and follow in order to make up what I call the “SST Strategy”. Follow for more ideas in the future!!
I have 4 levels marked and colour coded on the Chart.
These levels are:
⚪ White = Entry Point
🔴 Red = Stop Loss
🟢 Green = 1.2:1 Risk Reward Ratio
🟡 Yellow = 1.5:1 Risk Reward Ratio
🔵 Blue = 2:1 Risk Reward Ratio
👀 So what are we looking at today…!!!
🚨( SPY ) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust🚨
The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
SPY S&P 500 ETF Santa RallyU.S. stocks tend to rise during the Santa Claus rally period.
The Santa Rally is considered the last five trading sessions of the year and first two of the new year.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has traded higher 78% of the time during the Santa rally period for an average gain of 1.3%.
My price target for SPY is $384.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPY Several Possible Outcomes For Fall 2023 Longs/ShortsGreen indicates Bull Thesis
Red indicates Bear Thesis
We have seen a rejection from our well-respected channel that began at the start of 2022.
Best Case Scenario (Bulls)
Dip to lowest point around 3800s, then retest previous highs of 4180.
Best Case Scenario (Bears)
Dip to lowest point around 3600, then slight leg up towards 0.5 fib around 3800, reject 3800 leg down to test new lows.
SPY S&P 500 ETF Options Ahead of the CPI ReportIf you haven`t shorted the Bearish Flag Chart Pattern:
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) data for the month of November 2022 on December 13, 2022, at 8.30am ET.
The rate of inflation is the most important data that will impact the Fed’s coming rate hike decision.
Now looking at the SPY options chain Ahead of the CPI Report, i would buy the $387 strike price Puts with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$8.96 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the CPI Report, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.64%, down from 2.82% last week according to VIX data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 56th percentile, while according to VIX, we are on 25th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 2.87% movement
Bearish: 2.55% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 24.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 4188
BOT: 3960
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
78% probability we are going to touch previous high of 4110
26% probability we are going to touch previous low of 3942
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 53% bullish trend
Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend
4H timeframe indicates 53.3% bullish trend
SPY Bearish Flag | Put Options After the Midterm Elections price target was reached:
Now the S&P 500 Etf SPY is ready for a breakdown from the Bearish Flag Chart Pattern highs.
In the light of recent unemployment data reports, i would buy the $387 Puts expiring 2023-1-20 for $4.89 Premium.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPY S&P 500 ETF Bearish FlagIf you haven`t noticed, our Midterm Elections price target was reached:
Now besides the technical bearish flag chart pattern, if i look at the SPY S&P 500 ETF options chain, i would buy the $376 strike price Puts with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$7.56 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.