Spyforcast
Apple - Extremely Bearish Outlook - Andrew RoupasIn todays analysis, I will be looking at and breaking down the reasoning for my incredibly bearish stance against apple as we will be looking at the weekly time frame in todays breakdown. To begin, we can easily use prior levels of S&R in combination with Fibonacci levels of retracement, which in my opinion give us a clear map as to what will occur within the following weeks. We have obviously topped and this is clear by simple candlestick analysis as price has rejected numerous times on the Weekly and that the trend IMO is about to reverse. The floor is about to fall through and the first drop in price, based on fib levels that I have drawn, indicate $150 to be the target price which I have drawn a yellow line horizontally. Furthermore as we focus on the Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) specifically by focusing in on the histogram we can clearly see in my opinion a clear forecast of a drop in price. Buyers tried this past week to take back position, now that lower highs are being made and many buyers securing profits, this is a prime play in my opinion to short. Any comments or opinions would be greatly appreciated.
SPY S&P 500 ETF W-Shaped Recovery The SPY S&P 500 ETF wend down after the huge amount of puts that i noticed last week:
Now i am considering a W-Shaped Recovery to $470 by the end of Q2.
The Ukraine invasion was price in at $410 and the interest rates will be lower than expected due to the war.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPY bearish options todayI was monitoring the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ETF) options market and the puts are dominating the options today.
2/3 puts, 1/3 calls and some important dark pool prints sells.
My expectation is for a retracement at the $422 area, followed by a W shaped recovery.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPY correction is overThe FUD induced sell off has come to a finish. The SPY showed that the 300 MA is a respected level of support by bouncing off of it Monday. This was followed by 3 inside bars. Multiple inside bars indicate consolidation, a close above that range in a downtrend indicates a trend reversal. A break below that range in downtrend would indicate continuation. The SPY had a strong day rally to close out the day that emphatically showed the downtrend is over. I expect a gap up over the 200 MA Monday morning and a push back to $450. QQQ has a similar setup although less bullish.
SPY AnalysisThe Middle Gann line is of interest in this case
I propose an ascending broadening wedge to form above the middle Gann line
This is shown by the bars pattern placed
The 50MA is an area of support
The above idea can be applied to this ticker
It seems far fetched but when COVID is compared to other drops in the market, COVID outweighs them all, yet we receive the smallest bear move
Troubling
SPY Bullish CaseWe all know what they do best - print like there is no tomorrow.
If 430 level hold and is bought, we will get out rally. Every guru and their subs are long to their teeth. There is cash on the sidelines. If that cash sees this as a double bottom buy the dip opportunity - to the moon we go.
If this dip is not bought, look out below.
2hr shows a death cross (when 50MA crosses 200MA), 3hr is approaching a cross. 4 hr looks like a double bottom. Daily we are sitting pretty on 50MA. Short term time frames dont matter as much as long term timeframes. I am still eyeing 410-420 level but will change my mind if I see aggressive buying action today.
At the end of the day, you are the one clicking buttons and making decisions for yourself. Today will not matter so stop trading and pick long term strategies, use intraday activity to help your conviction.
S&P futures getting closer to upside resistance level. Upside target is still 4235 as long as 4113 holds. If 4163 fails, next bullish bounce can be seen from 4146 or 4135. Close below 4113 may indicate short term trend change unless we see a quick crash and bounce around 4050. On upside, 4188 is immediate resistance, once overcome can move towards 4235-4240.
SPY IMPORTANT LEVELSThe whole week spy has been pretty choppy but managed to stay above the critical 416.32 support. If bulls manage to keep it above that level, we may get to see SPY fill that gap to the upside.
The critical level SPY needs to pass is 420. If it doesn't I suspect we will see this choppy market continue and spy will likely trade between 416.32 and 420 until it breaks to the upside or downside.
We saw good earnings by companies only to sell off (AMD, AAPL, AMZN for example). I think we will likely see more selling on good earnings and remain choppy until earnings season is over.
Just some quick thoughts.
2/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 20202/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 2020 through the middle of 2021.
1. The gap down and down week on higher volume is telling of a coming consolidation/correction.
2. The usual 4th wave pullback formed a triangle and its measured target hit almost exactly.
3. 5th wave of primary looks to be complete.
At a key area here. the 2020 up trend line will be tested here. The degree of the line and length of it tells that it may not hold much longer. An ABC correction would seem to be applicable here testing 358 then eventually 339 and maybe 330 to fill the Nov. 2020 multiple gaps.
SPY to 430 by EOY 2021We are breaking the long-term ascending wedge:
- We're at resistance that's been in place since May 2019
- We're barely holding support since COVID low (this is 4th touch)
-> I expect we will continue to break down out of this ascending wedge. It may be tomorrow, it may be sometime in March, but it'll happen
-> Frankly, we need some consolidation with all (pick your favorite) indicator(s) signaling overbought conditions lately
New Pattern:
- The lows since June 2020 (roughly when we began understanding COVID and when the market became 'stable' in the new normal) create a new line of support (4x touches so far)
- This will be the new support line to watch and indicates we could go as low as ~355 (7% drop from today's 382 close) on SPY if we have a continued sharp drop (aren't all drops sharp?!)
- If we hold this pattern, we'll end the year with SPY between 415 and 445 (8% to 16% upside from where it is today)
Macroeconomics & Fundamentals:
- The FED will continue to support the markets
- Big names are ready to come back and will do so with higher margins
- The 'laggards' during the last 12 month's tech boom are finding their time (financials, oil, airlines/hotels, and even commodities)
- Inflation and rates increases are actually a good thing
- There is still a ton of cash on the sidelines waiting to be put to work: Wall Street wants to continue the ride, and Retail traders are clearly conditioned to buying the dip (looking at you GME)
ES Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/15/2021 SessionContract - CME_MINI:ESH2021
- High - 3797.75
- Low - 3792.00
Evening Stats
- Gap: = +0.08%
- Session Open ATR: 48.99
- Volume: 104K
- Open Int: 2.5M
- Trend Grade: Bullish
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range)
- Long: 4020
- Short: 3620
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.