Spyidea
S&P500: Key Support Level for SPY Bulls to DefendThe S&P 500 been gradually breaking downwards since peaking in July. AMEX:SPY has reached the bottom of this red parallel channel last week. This is a key support level that has been providing strong support, and I think SPY bulls need to defend this price level this week. The RSI is oversold so the conditions are good for a rebound here.
$SPY Market top playing outAs I've mentioned in my previous analysis, I believe we're at a market top (Despite Tom Lee calling for new highs).
There's nothing positive for markets looking forward, therefore I think markets will finally price in all of the raise hikes and the poor economy.
I think we may see one more high, however, if we do, I believe it'll result in a rug pull. I think the FOMC meeting tomorrow will largely be bullish for markets, but then after that, Thursday, Friday or into early next week, we'll see the market reverse.
I'm looking for the move to hit the targets laid out on the charts.
$412, $397 or $393 as the bottom. With hindsight, I think the move will mark the top of the market and we'll continue much lower. Bear market continuation targets shared here.
Let's see if it plays out.
Current daily channel on spy hope it helps you understand the current volatility rnage of the asset.
keep in mind that he can change profiles quite easily (a good indication of this is a sudden increase in "speed" and volume).
I personally like the idea of looking for entries with confirmation at the bottom (aimed at the top of the channel), but also gives an idea of the area where more attention is needed
SPY - Price Targets & Stop Loss📈 What’s up investors! 📉
Welcome back to another one of
💡“Mike’s Ideas”.💡
I post as I find signals… these signals are based on the personal rules I have built and follow in order to make up what I call the “SST Strategy”. Follow for more ideas in the future!!
I have 4 levels marked and colour coded on the Chart.
These levels are:
⚪ White = Entry Point
🔴 Red = Stop Loss
🟢 Green = 1.2:1 Risk Reward Ratio
🟡 Yellow = 1.5:1 Risk Reward Ratio
🔵 Blue = 2:1 Risk Reward Ratio
👀 So what are we looking at today…!!!
🚨( SPY ) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust🚨
The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
SPY Trade Idea (BULL TRAP)Here Im using the trend based fib ext.
SPY is currently at the June highs and the 1.618 Fib level.
Seeing deviation with price making a higher high and the RSI making a lower low on the 4HR. (Bearish)
In June fear turned to euphoria in an instant. Talks about the bear market being over started, just like it is now.
Spy fell out of an ascending channel after initially getting rejected from the 1.618. (Bearish)
In June it took about a week to finally sell off and bull market talks faded in the. background. I think we see a similar story in the next few days and weeks.
If you're bullish i would be patient, things dont go up in a straight line. The RSI on the daily is at levels not seen since March. VIX is on a strong support which has generally marked local tops. If you notice there has been 3 times we previously touched this support and every time has been a sell signal. Same goes with the top resistance, every time we touched resistance it marked a local bottom in the stock market as you can see with the red and green arrows.
In the coming weeks I am bearish on SPY and anticipate a retest of 390, a break below that and the next level is 380.
However coming off one of the best months in a long time the medium to long term future looks bright for the stock market.
We look to be forming a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern on higher time frames and if this is the case we should see strong support in the 380-390 range. (This is where Im swinging long if the market gives us these levels). I would also like to see VIX at resistance to further confirm the trade.
I wouldn't be surprised if VIX broke out of this wedge, and give us the 40+ everyone has been calling for which if in fact we do reach those levels on VIX i think that would be the max opportunity to go long on the market. We will cross that bridge when/if we get there.
Ill soon be posting ideas on individual stocks, let me know if you guys agree or disagree!
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SPY Stock Analysis - S&P 500 SPDR ETF Stock Price Prediction for Tomorrow.
February
We go over the SPY stock - S&P 500 SPDR ETF stock, and give our stock price prediction on the SPY stock, our SPY stock price analysis, and stock price forecast on SPY for tomorrow Monday February .
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SPY AnalysisThe Middle Gann line is of interest in this case
I propose an ascending broadening wedge to form above the middle Gann line
This is shown by the bars pattern placed
The 50MA is an area of support
The above idea can be applied to this ticker
It seems far fetched but when COVID is compared to other drops in the market, COVID outweighs them all, yet we receive the smallest bear move
Troubling
Harmonic bounce on the SPY. The trend will defend.Beautiful harmonic bouncing on the SPY . This will be a classic breakout, pull back, continuation pattern. The 30,50,100 SMA's are wide and healthy regardless of the noise and hyper evaluations. The trend will defend but a correction is due... we all know it.
2/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 20202/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 2020 through the middle of 2021.
1. The gap down and down week on higher volume is telling of a coming consolidation/correction.
2. The usual 4th wave pullback formed a triangle and its measured target hit almost exactly.
3. 5th wave of primary looks to be complete.
At a key area here. the 2020 up trend line will be tested here. The degree of the line and length of it tells that it may not hold much longer. An ABC correction would seem to be applicable here testing 358 then eventually 339 and maybe 330 to fill the Nov. 2020 multiple gaps.
9/23 UPDATED BEAR THESIS $316-317 next stopKey points
The DXY may bounce on resistance as shown
Oil may bounce on support as shown
Bonds remain unchanged as shown
Need to gauge Asia's reaction from our sell off today for confirmation on tomorrows trade
For those that don't understand intermarket relationships. From left to right and can start at any point.
Currency ------> commodities -----------> bonds -----------> Equity -------> currency --------> commodities ---------> bonds -----------> equity.
Huge markets reacting to one another, all interconnected, all correlated globally.
Given the circumstances, Spy is sitting in no-mans land right now with a straight shot to 316-317, but given that the DXY and OIL is looking to bounce off support/resistance means its bullish for SPY(meaning a relief bounce is probable, but will only be able to tell at tomorrows open, we need to see how asian markets will react to our sell off today)
The Dollar had a textbook breakout to the upside. When the Dollar rises, equity falls.(not all the time). When Oil loses value ----> spy loses value)
My chart merely shows that OIL is near a support line and that Dollar is near a resistance = Probability of Spy having a relief bounce.
The Risk vs reward is still heavily favored to the bears.
My General view of SPY
In my philosophical view, humans tend to always need an "answer" for everything in life. Historically we created gods to explain the unexplainable. That's not to say that i am an atheist in my religious view, nor am i trying to make this a religious discussion, I'm purely commenting on human nature. We are a curious species and we learned to not take "no" or "i don't know" as an answer from a very early age of our ancestry.
If you look around you, it feels we "must" have an answer for everything in life, including the unexplainable (consciousness). Scientific people call it "coincidence", religious people call it a "miracle from god". To advance in our life we need to see these two groups of people from a third persons perspective, and understand both sides. It doesn't always have to be black or white, right or wrong. It's okay "not to know", as long as you are the path to enlightenment through spiritual or scientific, that's all that matters.
I am only a man, born into this world trying to make sense of something insensible for my time.
So why is my philosophical view important in the way that I trade? I see many traders nowadays pointing to the news as an "answer" for their directional bias in the markets. Trump said this, trump said that, markets go up, markets go down. The media business sells you the answers, and you buy them because its encoded in our ancestral genes to buy them. To reach a new level of consciousness, you would need to understand the words. " I am only a man, and too stupid of a species to understand anything but." We are a mere spec in the timeline of "(life?)".
My thesis is based purely on objective data with a technical analysis standpoint (sometimes with the exception of federal news.)
Before trying to understand the way that i trade, you would need to understand my philosophical standpoint, and to also assume that nowadays, there is a gap between the real economy and the stock market. The stock market ≠(does not equal) the economy. You would also need to understand the options market and that algorithms created by market makers are always trying to stay delta neutral hedging their positions. And finally the last thing you must understand is intermarket analysis to fully understand my trading view.
So if we can all come to the agreement that we are trading against algorithms, we could also say that we are trading against logic. In this case it is MUCH easier to trade against logic than against emotional traders because every move in the market is based on a formula instead of being based on a opinionated rational/irrational decision to sell or buy. Do I know the formula? No I don't, and that's okay. What i do know, is the results of the formula at work. Sometimes its easy to spot when live trading, sometimes it can only be spot with hindsight bias, sometimes the answer is never found, AND THATS O.K.
For example, i don't see where or why "2+2" is happening, but i keep seeing "4" as the answer.
So if we can all come to the agreement that we are trading against algorithms, we could also say that we are trading against logic. In this case it is MUCH easier to trade against logic than against emotional traders because every move in the market is based on a formula instead of being based on a opinion based rational/irrational decision to sell or buy.
TL;DR We are not trading based off psychology any longer, we are trading based off logic. (algorithms & formulas) My thesis is based purely on objective data with a technical standpoint (with the exception of federal news.)
AMEX:SPY
Multiple resistances/support areas for the S&P.
We have always respected the white resistance since the 2008 financial crisis. The solid green line in the middle is what i consider the "goldilocks" zone. A habitable zone in which "fair price" has been achieved in the context of the uptrend we are seeing since the 2008 financial crisis.
In conclusion, to not make my first post too long i will write some pointers in how i trade.
I trade Spx products vs volatility
I trade Spx products vs forex
I trade Spx products vs bonds
I trade Spx products vs commodities
I trade Spx products logically ( I heavily disagree with EWT methodology)
I trade Spx products using intermarket relationships
I use historical resistance/supports in all markets to gauge activity in what i'm trading.
As time goes on i will post many charts of what i wrote above, and too make things less confusing i will explain as i go.