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40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX Q - Updated 010323After a sloppy last few weeks of trading to wrap up the year-end 22', SPY closed right around the (Q4/22') SPX JPM J.P. Morgan Quarterly Collar sitting right at $3,830. Looking ahead to the month of January, we have lots of upcoming data including December Inflation CPI, Jobs Report(s)/Unemployment Data (UNRATE), Producer Price Index (PPIACO), Leading Economic Data such as the OECD Composite Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM), Upcoming Q4/22' Earnings Releases, etc., of which is seems markets are staying relatively "pinned" for the time being until this data starts hitting the markets & investors come back from the extended holiday season. Per our "40-Bar Cycle" chart, while I expect that this next down-leg in SPY SPX will likely play out as shown in the in the charts. However, do keep in mind that there are some seasonal tailwinds & also some tailwinds for markets regarding mid-term election cycles. Here is what history tells us about pre-presidential election mid-term seasonality: 🇺🇸🗳🗓 “Third year pre-presidential election is the strongest.” (Up Double Digits, Historically) Dow = 19.3% (Since 1949) Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 = 20% (Since 1949) SPY SPX ES1! Nasdaq = 29.3% (Since 1971) QQQ NQ1! Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycles Data Explained via Twitter Space 🔊: twitter.com SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Lowering, But High Inflation aka Stagflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into Q1/23', as mid-term election/pre-presidential cycle seasonality kicks in & also as the economy proves more "strong" than many are discounting (Peak Inflation + Light Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED via Pending 'Pause' + Nominal Earnings "Resiliency"). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPY
by kylemusserco
3
1871-2022 S&P 500 Secular Bull vs. Bear Markets SPX SPY I wanted to share this chart, as a couple of things stood out when thinking about past bull & bear secular market cycles vs. the current secular bull market that we’ve been in for the last 10+ years since the 08-09’ GFC (Great Financial Crisis). First , for those who say “investors can't or shouldn’t time the markets", I very much disagree with this logic (or Wall Street marketing) as there are plenty of signals, cyclical trends, leading indicators, etc., that give investors clues as to what likely lies ahead — based on probabilities. And while nobody can be 100% certain as to the exact pathway of markets, given the macro cross-currents that are in front of us — we can 100% say that we have been & still are in a secular bull market. Until this trend changes, the “crash” that many were calling for in 22’, if not expecting for 23’ could possibly take longer to play out than many realize when looking at previous bull vs. bear secular market cycles. Second , looking at the attached chart(s), this is also why timing and duration matter. If you are entering retirement toward the latter part of a secular bull market, it might be best to reduce risk & shift from capital appreciation to capital preservation. Examples of this include leading up The Great Depression, 1950’s post-WWII boom prior to the 1970’s Stagflation Era, & into the end of the Tech Boom of the .com era leading into 2001. On the flip side, if you are in your saving years (20’s-30’s+), then it is during these secular bear markets that you really want to be accumulating & building your asset base for the next bull market phase that is likely ahead in the coming years as the trend higher always begins during the bear market bottoming process (see dotted black lines on charts). Third , looking at the current cycle & zooming in on the charts from yearly (large picture) to monthly chart — we can see that we are still technically in a secular bull market. And considering the previous two major bull market cycles of the 1950/60’s (18 years) & 1980’s up until the early 2000’s (19 years), one could make a case that we are only about halfway through this current bull cycle (9 years). Do I think this is absolutely the case? Personally , I do not as there are issues regarding demographics, de-globalization, inflation/stagflation/deflation, boomers retiring en-masse, etc., that will likely put further pressure on asset markets throughout this decade. What do you think about this historical analysis? Are we going to break this secular bull market cycle & enter a secular new bear market? Or, are are just in a corrective phase within the broader bull market cycle? CHART NOTE: Recessions = Shaded Red Areas Chart #1 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Returns Chart Data via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low: Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%. Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%. Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio. Chart #2 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Secular Highs & Lows via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #3 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Regression to Trend via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #4 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Regression Channel via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #5 (Monthly): *1920-1972* (Great Depression & Post-WWII) 📊 *Note that during the Great Depression/WWII, as Ray Dalio has pointed out in his recent book "The Changing World Order" this was a prolonged period of negative to very low returns.* 📖 www.economicprinciples.org Chart #6 (Monthly): *1972-2022* (70’s Stagflation, 80’s "Greed is Good" markets & 90’s dot.com Boom, 08’ GFC, & 2010’s QE 1/2/3, 20’ Covid Crash, & 21-22’ Inflation/Interest Rate Shock Correction) 📊 *Note that we are still in a secular bull market uptrend, when looking at the monthly charts. Until this trend breaks down, there is market support for a continuation of this trend.* Pre-Covid High = Red Dotted Line ($3,393.52) Post-Covid High = Green Dotted Line ($4,816.62) Chart #6 (Monthly): *1871-2022* (MACD) 📊
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco
3
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 122322With a key level of the $JPM Quarterly Options Collar sitting at $3,855 on SPX ES1!, markets seemed to have been "pinned" for the time being as market makers position for the close of business ahead of the Christmas holiday. Question now is are the bulls hopes of a Santa Rally into year-end wishful thinking? 🎅 🎄 Or, we see another attempt at a short-term relief rally within what is likely to be a continuation of the downward "40-Bar Cycle" that is projected to continue into the first few weeks of 23'? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED + Earnings "Resiliency"). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
Possible SPY Long opportunity from smart money Please read the chart text. Furthermore we are in a box that has proved there are lots of bulls at this area hence the previous rally at this zone. Could this be the Santa rally everyone is talking about to save spy? We can hope for smart money to re-enter longs here to boost spy back up towards the top of this range otherwise, I fear spy may drop slowly into 360's or lower. There is also a chance that spy just trends sideways and ranges more into the new year. What do you guys think is brewing?
AMEX:SPY
by MuhWhipski
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 12/19Next Support Level Being Tested The key support level identified in our trading plans published on Wed., 12/07 - and, reiterated on Thu., 12/15 - at 3900-3910 has been decisively broken down, and the index is now testing the next key support level around the 3825-3835 range. Our models are indicating a range-bound trading while the index is trading within the broader 3810-3830 range on a daily close basis. If you are short, you might want to take profits on a break out of this range. If you are itching to go long, you might want to wait until the range is broken out of to the upside. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models went short on Thursday, 12/15, on a break below 3895 (opened at 3893.51) with a 40-point trailing stop and a break-even hard stop in effect. Models are indicating instituting a hard stop at 3843 for today. If stopped out, models indicate staying flat for the rest of the session. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 12/19: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3825, 3838, 3844, or 3852 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3840, 3833 or 3820 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 3863, and short exits on a break above 3813. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please see for yourself how our published trading plans have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  ***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night! LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! ***** NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap TradingView Tags: spx500 spx spy es1! spx500usd spx500long spx500short es1 esmini
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
1
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 121722This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED and financial markets. Whether this is all talk to put some intentional downward pressure on markets, as financial conditions have eased as of late — or this is the actual pathway forward and the bond markets are mis-pricing the projected Terminal FFR (Fed Funds Rate, now >5% into 23'), some indicators such as our (40-Bar Cycle Chart) 📉 are highlighting what is likely another leg down in financial assets as QT ramps up and higher interest rates take their toll on real economic activity. Keep in mind that behind the scenes, the FED in coordination with the U.S. Treasury are working their magic 🧙🏼‍♂️🔮 in terms of FED Net Liquidity to keep things "(dis)orderly". Here is the updated 40-Bar Cycle Chart for SPY ES1! SPX, which seems to be sitting on some major support. Given the structure of the markets after losing the $390 SPY / $3,900 ES1! SPX, along with J. Powell and other FED speaker comments post-FOMC on Friday, is the hopes for a year-end 🎅 🎄 rally wishful thinking? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
spy liquidity grab attempt? smart money concept.We are currently at a pivot point where we could easily fall or skyrocket. In this chart I have labeled supply/demand zones as well as trends and support/resistance. Where I have text and a circle resembles a change of character and a liquidity grab attempt outside the bullish wedge pattern. It is likely we may see a move up as a attempt to move closer to 400 but if not we will fall below 390. We skyrocketed past this point with the help of the FED last time, will the FED come through and save spy once again?
AMEX:SPY
by MuhWhipski
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES - Updated 121022 Given that we are headed into the release of the November Consumer Price Index this upcoming (Tuesday, December 13th ) and also the December Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, December 14th) , are markets set up for another short opportunity into the end of January (Q1)? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED). Let me know your prediction in the comments below!
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
Bears Messed Up!Bears gotta keep their mouths shut. Wayyyyy too many people trying to short right now. Typically these spikes are only seen after a decent downturn (long than 2 days lol), but that just shows how excited everyone is to short. Spikes like this almost always lead to reversals whether it makes sense or not. I would keep a buy the dip mentality until seasonality starts working against the market. If you are not buying, I would definitely be careful shorting!! Safe trading
INDEX:CPCSLong
by mperri329