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$SPY Can we go higher?Hi Traders - It's been a while since my last post and I figured I share this one with you guys. In the chart, I lay out the two most likely scenarios on each side of the trade. Personally, I believe there will be upward pressure here, because of the sheer amount of upside. However , we will have to see the overnight price action and pre-market before making an accurate judgement on which way we will move. Sincerely, Mike (UPRIGHT Trading) **PLEASE NOTE: the indicators at the bottom are for analysis**
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
2
SPY S&P 500 ETF Double Bottom Technical ReboundIf you haven`t shorted the SPY Head and Shoulders Pattern: Then you should know that a technical rebound refers to a recovery from a prior period of losses when technical signals indicate that the move was oversold. In this case, the Relative Strength Index momentum indicator of SPY S&P 500 ETF is at 24.05 on a Double Bottom Reversal Chart Pattern. A double bottom is a reversal chart pattern in technical analysis that describes a change in trend. Even though i am overall bearish on the economy, buying a strong financial instrument when the RSI is below 30, would make a case for a potential short term reversal. My ultimate price target is $338, but for now i am bullish. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
1
Bear Market Rally TeeteringMarket participants are wondering right now if we are merely in a bear market rally or if this is the beginning of a new long-term bull run. I thought I would write a post to share my thoughts. First, the chart above: This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with Fibonacci levels applied. I drew Fibonacci levels from the January high to the June low to identify areas where the price of SPY may be resisted or reverse back downward. The chart is adjusted for dividends and is based on a log scale. I also placed arrows where Fibonacci levels may have acted either as support (up arrows) or resistance (down arrows). While anything can happen and it would be foolish to make a call for certain, I do genuinely believe the following: Regardless of how high the S&P 500 rallies, at some point in the future we will likely see the June bottom again. This is because the June bottom is far more important than most people realize, as I will explain below. Back on June 17th, the exact day of the bottom, I noted that SPY was likely bottoming. My charting analysis told me we were likely in the lower wick formation of the monthly candle at the time, so I knew a bottom was imminent. See the below post. In early July, I also explained that the bottom was significant. See the below post. We are currently sitting on a major level in stock market history. See the below chart. The chart above is a yearly chart of the entire 150 years of SPX price data that Trading View provides. When one analyzes the chart as if it were a shorter timeframe chart, one will see that we are teetering right on the third Fibonacci extension of the Great Depression high. That is to say, when one draws Fibonacci lines from the lowest price ever for the SPX up to the Great Depression peak and then applies Fibonacci extensions, one will see that the June bottom was precisely on the third extension of the Great Depression. (Some call it a Fibonacci extension, some refer to it as a Fibonacci Spiral, and others refer to it as a Golden Spiral. Regardless, it is a very important level.) For more information about the math and theory behind it, you check out this Wikipedia article on the Golden Spiral: en.wikipedia.org These spirals occur at points in time when markets can undergo the most dramatic declines. This occurs mathematically in the form of price unraveling to a previous Fibonacci level. In fact, very few people know that Black Monday (the 1987 Stock Market crash) occurred at the second extension of the Great Depression peak. Computers and smart money were detecting this Fibonacci level and likely led the initial phase of the sell-off, which spiraled into a panic sell-off. The above monthly chart from 1987 shows that price tried to surpass the second Fibonacci extension but failed to close above it and was repelled back down. Fast forward to the present time, the Fed Reserve's limitless quantitative easing propelled us abruptly above the third Fibonacci extension in the beginning of 2021. This important Fibonacci level actually held as support for both the 2021 low and the 2022 low (so far). See the charts below which show that the June bottom landed precisely on the 3rd Fibonacci extension. On a yearly chart, (although the yearly candle has not been completed yet), you can see that we are sitting precariously on the 3rd Fibonacci extension with a bearish hammer. This is quite concerning because it is occurring while we are on the verge of a significant recession. While I cannot explain all the reasons why I believe a significant recession is underway in this post, I have links to my prior posts explaining all the chart findings that lead me to this conclusion. You can refer to these links below. I find it concerning that so many market participants are buying into a rally while the yield curve is so inverted. Indeed, the yield curve is the most inverted it has ever been since data became available in the 1980s (as measured by a 10Y/2Y ratio). See my post below. Here's why I believe this rally is occurring. This rally was caused by two main types of market participants: Marginally informed market participants who think that inflation has peaked. While inflation very likely did peak locally, there are worrying charts that suggest elevated inflation will be persistent. Some commodities have broken out on their yearly charts, which can provide a tailwind for higher prices for years to come. So far there is no evidence in the charts that inflation is dropping precipitously enough to warrant a sudden pivot to easing by the Fed. I believe these marginally informed market participants may get whipsawed if inflation surprises back to the upside in the months or years ahead. Shorts are getting squeezed. There were plenty of signs in June that the markets needed to rally back up, no matter how bearish the long-term outlook. Many shorts missed these signs or fell victim to smart money misleading them. (Recall that right before the June low, Jamie Dimon warned that a hurricane was coming. Although this is actually true, his timing was likely not coincidental. Smart money loves to trap shorts right at the bottom and make fear-inciting statements when fear is already extreme. Basically, it's squeezing every penny out of uninformed market participants. Sadly, right at the January high Jamie Dimon said the opposite: Recall that in January 2022 he said that he sees the strongest growth in a decade . Again, trying to trap longs at the very top to squeeze every penny out of them. Never trust statements from anyone, unless they can back it up with a chart!). So we have been seeing shorts getting squeezed since June and this short squeeze has propelled the stock market higher at an unnatural and unwarranted rate. Technical reasons that I remain neutral with a bearish bias include: The weekly stochastic RSI is over-extended to the upside and ready to oscillate back down. While it's possible that price can continue higher or consolidate, despite a declining stochastic RSI, the risk-to-reward does not support rushing into long positions at this point in time. The weekly candle is still within the Ichimoku Cloud which can act as resistance. See chart below Other reasons that I remain neutral with a bearish bias: From late August through mid- to late-October stock market returns have historically remained muted or have declined. While some can argue that the VIX has broken down its trend line, I remain cautious whenever the VIX and the VVIX are so suppressed to the downside going in the August to October timeframe. This is typically a volatile part of the year. Few people noticed that last week, the weekly RSI of the VIX was the lowest in nearly a decade. This does not make any sense. Being a gauge of fear, I find it hard to believe that the fear among market participants last week was the lowest in nearly a decade (from a weekly RSI perspective). I believe that the VIX has been artificially low lately, and although I can only speculate why, I know one thing for certain: the risk-to-reward does not support entering a whole bunch of long positions at this time. Do not get caught up in the FOMO. The FED is only now just beginning to accelerate the roll-off of assets from its balance sheet. It's hard to imagine this action facilitating a bull run that breezes past new all-time highs. The value of the FED's assets is equal to a very sizable percentage of the total stock market capitalization. Rolling these assets off its balance sheet will de-leverage risk assets. Market participants buying into a rally as the Fed accelerates balance sheet roll-off is essentially fighting the Fed in my opinion. The Fed has only rolled off about 1% of its balance and we had one of the worst first 6 months of the year in stock market history. Finally, as noted above the yield curve has inverted. This means we are in a late-cycle rally. So if I am to add any longs, it will be in sectors that do well in the late cycle: Utilities, Telecom, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples. With that said, I will play very defensively and use fairly tight stops since many risk assets are still historically overvalued and overbought. I will look for strong bullish setups in only these sectors. I also see U.S. Treasuries as attractive if the Eurodollar Futures and the terminal rate remains steady, and assuming the Fed does not get crazy with its balance sheet roll-off. In summary, virtually all of the charts I have seen show that there will likely be a significant recession in the coming year(s). Be skeptical of strong rallies while the yield curve is inverted. Trade safe, never trade on emotion, and have a plan before you enter into a trade. Good luck with your trading!
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
47
Spy Possible Outcomes Short/longFirst thing i want to say is we've had a crazy month and anything is possible so dont take any of my ideas as financial advice. im only 16 with 2 very crazy years of experience. 1. . My first idea, and the one I believe in the most, is that we will bounce up and test the 389.46 level, and with all of the events leading up to that and October being right around the corner, we will most likely rally next week up to that level and then fall back before October (worst month for stocks other than september.) With momentum, I expect us to capitulate and fall straight down to 321.79 at the end of October, leading to the end of midterms, allowing us to bounce and rally through the winter, leading back into the 2023 chaos. After that, I have no idea what will happen; I haven't looked far enough, but this will be around the time ill be looking to buy indivual stocks again. 2.The second idea is we break through that 389.46 level and test that higher trend line around 4.12-4.15 where i expect us to reject near end of october also leading into midterms where we would then have the so said crash to 293.96 (2019 Highs) from november leading into beginning of 2023 having the dark winter everyone was talking about couple months ago. 3.Third and final idea in mind is we break the 398.46 level and we trade sideways unti lmarch of next year forming the right shoulder for the "crash" in march. This idea would kill all option premium for the next 6 months and would be the definion of max pain for option traders. 1 is my go to idea that i believe has the highest probability. 2. is a controversial one because midterms are expected to be bullish for the market and the market is going to be doing the opposite but with all the overseas new could still be a possibility. 3. Also a very controversial idea just threw it in because of the head and shoulders possibility. I Sold out of basically all my short position i'll be scaling back in through this expected rally. All these ideas are just ideas so dont take them to heart and please leave any opinions in the comments i will be reading everyones thoughts and criticism as i am just ur average teenager. time to do my homework :) Keep it respectful and happy trading everyone!
AMEX:SPYShort
by bullishbrowsing
2
Potential Failure in SPYSPY created a S/R Box between 362.17 - 431.73. There was an adjustment bar formed in July. These generated a weak point (danger zone) between 362.17 - 371.04 Should you set your stochastic to be the width of the box that was created (currently 4 bars), Jan - Apr was also a 4 bar box. When Stochastics move below 30, it is an indication that it is about to challenge the lows. Currently the stochastic is 17.32, this is suggesting that there is 17.32 of the box range left until the bottom is breached. The Apr 22 value for the 4 period stochastic was 1.96 suggesting weakness and a challenge of the low. However, there is a danger zone. 371.04, if prices could bounce from here (and on Sep 23, the price is 374.22 with a low of 373.44) it shows that there is strong support here. Should prices enter this zone, if fails to hold, the bottom will fall out. The next area of potential support could fall (based on calculations Sep 23) to between 340 - 350. However, there is still 6 trade periods left in the month. End of the month calculation could result in a lower target range being generated.
AMEX:SPY
by priceprophet
1
Reverse Head and Shoulders with a weird neckline? Its cool to use tech analysis to try and gauge the psychology of the markets right now, but we cant deny the importance of the macro environment. However that hasn't stopped the broad market from showing optimism and this is not just a bear trap, the lower low has been denied entry and we are in a reverse head and shoulders pattern on SPY and NDX. CPI is looking like falling off a cliff, look at used car, housing, and energy prices, they make up a lot of CPI. Still the FED is going to keep raising rates steadily into Q1 23. Cuts happen fast though and the market could be looking forward to that too much. JPM just published doom city saying 25% drawdown in the next 4 months, if so looking at that and historically, we have SPY 300 as the bottom respectively, that only happens if the elevator comes like in the 70s and the dot com crash. Until that happens though, SPY to 440 before I see any good positions for shorts. Crashes happen fast though who knows on a 6-12 month outlook, but were already down 25% NDX, historically crashes can hit 50% drawdown on NDX easy, but the snapback is always very quick within 1-2 months of the bottom, cant really time these things. Anyway, I hope yall enjoy my drawings, and analysis for now.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Trendytrend
SPY Analysis: Mid September 2022This is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for the period of September 12th through September 16th. Weekly Expected Move There is a 68% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range: High price: 416.90 Low price: 396.30 There is a 95% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range: High price: 427.20 Low price: 386.00 For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is expected to move from the close of the prior week until the close of the current week. It is calculated using the implied volatility from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior week but before the opening of the current week. For more information on how to calculate these values, see the link at the bottom of this post. Volatility & Seasonality Historically, volatility typically remains subdued from about the 5th trading day of September until around the 12th trading day of September (September 19th) at which point volatility spikes substantially going into early October, as the chart below shows. This year, the 12th trading day of September happens to coincide with quadruple witching on Friday, September 16th. There is a particularly high chance that the market will become volatile from around that time into early October. There may also be increased volatility if the CPI report that comes out before the market opens on Tuesday, September 13th surprises to the upside. Although inflation is subsiding, I will note that the consensus prediction is higher than the Fed's prediction. In my post about the Fed pivot, I noted that we can extrapolate from the overnight reverse repurchase operations that the inflation rate may be around 8.3%, which is higher than consensus. I also note in that post that inflation is likely to continue to subside modestly in the coming months. See the link below to my post to understand how I reached that prediction. Of note, even though we had one of the worst first 6 months of the year in stock market history, there has still not been backwardation in the VIX term structure. VIX term structure backwardation simply means that the market is pricing in decreasing volatility in the future. This is concerning because VIX term structure backwardation is a characteristic of virtually all major stock market bottoms, as it reflects the type of capitulation that major stock market bottoms typically exhibit. Fibonacci Levels Price found support last week almost exactly at the golden ratio (0.618) using the June bottom and the peak in mid-August. This is generally bullish as it reflects a fairly typical retracement. See below chart. At the close of last week, the 4-hour chart became overextended and printed a bearish reversal candle right at the EMA ribbon. The stochastics are overextended as well. Thus, there is a chance that price may either consolidate or reverse to the downside for the short term. If SPY overcomes the EMA ribbon on the 4-hour chart, it is likely to face significant resistance at the Fibonacci level around the 415, as shown below. This level also resisted price in late May and early June. Regression Channel Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert back to its mean (or average) for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us identify which trend is governing price action. These channels can give insight into trend reversals. In my SPY analysis for the end of August, I posted the below regression channel. I indicated that the June-August rally is no longer governing price movement and that price is regressing to the mean of the larger bear market channel (red line of the longer channel). Indeed, price reverted precisely to that line, as shown below. What this means is that the larger bear market downtrend is still intact and is governing price action. As many market participants know, our pathway to breaking this bear market will involve one or both of the following: (1) CPI reports continue to surprise to the downside; (2) The market begins to price in a Fed pivot (the Eurodollar Futures will provide insight after quad witching on Friday, September 16th). Weekly Chart The weekly chart shows that the bear market continues unabated. In the below weekly chart, I placed the EMA ribbon (yellow and orange lines) on the chart to show that it continues to resist price downward. This is the longest period of time that the S&P 500 has been resisted by the weekly EMA ribbon since the Great Recession. In the below chart, I added the WaveTrend indicator. Do you notice the two teal/light blue shaded weekly candles? These represent bearish crossovers. They suggest that further downside is likely. Based on my research, when two weekly bearish crossovers occur on the WaveTrend indicator while price is consistently being resisted by the weekly EMA ribbon, further downside occurs before a bull run. Specifically, at minimum, price drops below the low of the week in which the second bearish crossover occurred before a sustained bull rally occurs. In other words, we can expect that SPY could drop below 388 before a sustained bull rally occurs. This is not a perfect indicator, but it's quite plausible. On the flip side, there is a major positive sign in the weekly chart. Specifically, there is a possible formation of a reverse head and shoulders as illustrated below. As you know, a reverse head and shoulders pattern is bullish and the measured move up is generally the distance from the bottom to the neckline. Monthly Chart The monthly chart continues to undergo a bottoming process. Price is being supported by the EMA ribbon and the WaveTrend indicator is trying to build a significant bullish crossover (the third most significant bullish crossover on the monthly chart in SPY's history -- the SPY ETF was created in the 1990s). If the Fed pivots by October, then I would expect the close of November will give us a formal bullish crossover. Until then, there's room for caputilation-type candles to continue. Stage of the Economic Cycle: Late Stage (Stages are early, mid, late and recession) Since the 10Y/2Y yield curve remains inverted we are in the late stage of an economic cycle. Below is a chart of how each sector typically performs during this stage. Credit: Fidelity Investments We are most likely in Stage 6 of the economic cycle as shown below because stock, bonds, and commodities have all been declining to some degree in the past several months and because the yield curve is inverted. Once the yield curve inverts, economic contraction will subsequently occur. Although the general trend of all assets is down during Stage 6 there can still be rallies before contraction takes hold. Credit: StockCharts.com Yearly Chart While the monthly chart suggests a bottoming formation that can lead to a rally in the 4th quarter of 2022 into the 1st quarter of 2023, the yearly chart is much more bearish. Below is a regression channel that I created of the entire stock market history dating back to 1871. It helps us measure and compare every major market top and bottom in history. Below is a closer view. To put things in perspective, the June 2022 bottom was the same standard deviation from the mean as the Great Depression peak. The stock market is so overvalued from a historical perspective, that we had to undergo one of the worst first 6 months in stock market history just to get down to a level that is roughly as overvalued as the Great Depression peak. The Shiller PE Ratio confirms this scope of overvaluation, as shown below. The stock market is extremely overvalued because of monetary easing. Monetary easing is a central bank experiment that began in recent decades and was normalized in the years following the Great Recession. Today, the amount of assets on central banks' balance sheets due to monetary easing is unprecedented in the past 322 years for which reliable data exist. The monetary easing experiment has created tremendous reliance on its continuity. Under the surface cracks are beginning to appear, as indicated in the chart below, which shows the impending rise in cost to the U.S. federal government to finance its debt in the future. Only time will tell how the experiment ends... Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your thoughts. Thank you. If you'd like to plot the weekly and daily expected moves for SPY on your chart, try the indicator "SPY Expected Move by VIX", which is calculated from the VIX rather than from the implied volatility of the options chain. The expected moves that I've posted above were manually calculated by me using SPY options chain data. If you'd like to learn how to calculate the weekly expected move yourself, this video can help: www.youtube.com
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
60
BEST BULLISH SET UP OF THE WEEKStumbled upon the U chart and I see some possible magic. Clearly has gotten obliterated even more than the overall market. What I don't like about the chart is that the price is currently under IPO price which is always a red flag. I am not sure what kind of BS has been going on since their IPO but I'm looking strictly at technicals. What I love about the chart VOLUME VOLUME VOLUME that's what I want to see as a bull. Appears to be some clear-cut textbook accumulation complete with a nice retest. That green doji to end the week is sexy. If it opens red tomorrow or turns red this is the play of the week IMO especially if the rest of the market is holding up. As always not financial advice just some opinions.
NYSE:ULong
by EZmoney24
1