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Spylong

Potential Failure in SPYSPY created a S/R Box between 362.17 - 431.73. There was an adjustment bar formed in July. These generated a weak point (danger zone) between 362.17 - 371.04 Should you set your stochastic to be the width of the box that was created (currently 4 bars), Jan - Apr was also a 4 bar box. When Stochastics move below 30, it is an indication that it is about to challenge the lows. Currently the stochastic is 17.32, this is suggesting that there is 17.32 of the box range left until the bottom is breached. The Apr 22 value for the 4 period stochastic was 1.96 suggesting weakness and a challenge of the low. However, there is a danger zone. 371.04, if prices could bounce from here (and on Sep 23, the price is 374.22 with a low of 373.44) it shows that there is strong support here. Should prices enter this zone, if fails to hold, the bottom will fall out. The next area of potential support could fall (based on calculations Sep 23) to between 340 - 350. However, there is still 6 trade periods left in the month. End of the month calculation could result in a lower target range being generated.
AMEX:SPY
by priceprophet
1
Reverse Head and Shoulders with a weird neckline? Its cool to use tech analysis to try and gauge the psychology of the markets right now, but we cant deny the importance of the macro environment. However that hasn't stopped the broad market from showing optimism and this is not just a bear trap, the lower low has been denied entry and we are in a reverse head and shoulders pattern on SPY and NDX. CPI is looking like falling off a cliff, look at used car, housing, and energy prices, they make up a lot of CPI. Still the FED is going to keep raising rates steadily into Q1 23. Cuts happen fast though and the market could be looking forward to that too much. JPM just published doom city saying 25% drawdown in the next 4 months, if so looking at that and historically, we have SPY 300 as the bottom respectively, that only happens if the elevator comes like in the 70s and the dot com crash. Until that happens though, SPY to 440 before I see any good positions for shorts. Crashes happen fast though who knows on a 6-12 month outlook, but were already down 25% NDX, historically crashes can hit 50% drawdown on NDX easy, but the snapback is always very quick within 1-2 months of the bottom, cant really time these things. Anyway, I hope yall enjoy my drawings, and analysis for now.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Trendytrend
SPY Analysis: Mid September 2022This is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for the period of September 12th through September 16th. Weekly Expected Move There is a 68% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range: High price: 416.90 Low price: 396.30 There is a 95% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range: High price: 427.20 Low price: 386.00 For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is expected to move from the close of the prior week until the close of the current week. It is calculated using the implied volatility from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior week but before the opening of the current week. For more information on how to calculate these values, see the link at the bottom of this post. Volatility & Seasonality Historically, volatility typically remains subdued from about the 5th trading day of September until around the 12th trading day of September (September 19th) at which point volatility spikes substantially going into early October, as the chart below shows. This year, the 12th trading day of September happens to coincide with quadruple witching on Friday, September 16th. There is a particularly high chance that the market will become volatile from around that time into early October. There may also be increased volatility if the CPI report that comes out before the market opens on Tuesday, September 13th surprises to the upside. Although inflation is subsiding, I will note that the consensus prediction is higher than the Fed's prediction. In my post about the Fed pivot, I noted that we can extrapolate from the overnight reverse repurchase operations that the inflation rate may be around 8.3%, which is higher than consensus. I also note in that post that inflation is likely to continue to subside modestly in the coming months. See the link below to my post to understand how I reached that prediction. Of note, even though we had one of the worst first 6 months of the year in stock market history, there has still not been backwardation in the VIX term structure. VIX term structure backwardation simply means that the market is pricing in decreasing volatility in the future. This is concerning because VIX term structure backwardation is a characteristic of virtually all major stock market bottoms, as it reflects the type of capitulation that major stock market bottoms typically exhibit. Fibonacci Levels Price found support last week almost exactly at the golden ratio (0.618) using the June bottom and the peak in mid-August. This is generally bullish as it reflects a fairly typical retracement. See below chart. At the close of last week, the 4-hour chart became overextended and printed a bearish reversal candle right at the EMA ribbon. The stochastics are overextended as well. Thus, there is a chance that price may either consolidate or reverse to the downside for the short term. If SPY overcomes the EMA ribbon on the 4-hour chart, it is likely to face significant resistance at the Fibonacci level around the 415, as shown below. This level also resisted price in late May and early June. Regression Channel Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert back to its mean (or average) for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us identify which trend is governing price action. These channels can give insight into trend reversals. In my SPY analysis for the end of August, I posted the below regression channel. I indicated that the June-August rally is no longer governing price movement and that price is regressing to the mean of the larger bear market channel (red line of the longer channel). Indeed, price reverted precisely to that line, as shown below. What this means is that the larger bear market downtrend is still intact and is governing price action. As many market participants know, our pathway to breaking this bear market will involve one or both of the following: (1) CPI reports continue to surprise to the downside; (2) The market begins to price in a Fed pivot (the Eurodollar Futures will provide insight after quad witching on Friday, September 16th). Weekly Chart The weekly chart shows that the bear market continues unabated. In the below weekly chart, I placed the EMA ribbon (yellow and orange lines) on the chart to show that it continues to resist price downward. This is the longest period of time that the S&P 500 has been resisted by the weekly EMA ribbon since the Great Recession. In the below chart, I added the WaveTrend indicator. Do you notice the two teal/light blue shaded weekly candles? These represent bearish crossovers. They suggest that further downside is likely. Based on my research, when two weekly bearish crossovers occur on the WaveTrend indicator while price is consistently being resisted by the weekly EMA ribbon, further downside occurs before a bull run. Specifically, at minimum, price drops below the low of the week in which the second bearish crossover occurred before a sustained bull rally occurs. In other words, we can expect that SPY could drop below 388 before a sustained bull rally occurs. This is not a perfect indicator, but it's quite plausible. On the flip side, there is a major positive sign in the weekly chart. Specifically, there is a possible formation of a reverse head and shoulders as illustrated below. As you know, a reverse head and shoulders pattern is bullish and the measured move up is generally the distance from the bottom to the neckline. Monthly Chart The monthly chart continues to undergo a bottoming process. Price is being supported by the EMA ribbon and the WaveTrend indicator is trying to build a significant bullish crossover (the third most significant bullish crossover on the monthly chart in SPY's history -- the SPY ETF was created in the 1990s). If the Fed pivots by October, then I would expect the close of November will give us a formal bullish crossover. Until then, there's room for caputilation-type candles to continue. Stage of the Economic Cycle: Late Stage (Stages are early, mid, late and recession) Since the 10Y/2Y yield curve remains inverted we are in the late stage of an economic cycle. Below is a chart of how each sector typically performs during this stage. Credit: Fidelity Investments We are most likely in Stage 6 of the economic cycle as shown below because stock, bonds, and commodities have all been declining to some degree in the past several months and because the yield curve is inverted. Once the yield curve inverts, economic contraction will subsequently occur. Although the general trend of all assets is down during Stage 6 there can still be rallies before contraction takes hold. Credit: StockCharts.com Yearly Chart While the monthly chart suggests a bottoming formation that can lead to a rally in the 4th quarter of 2022 into the 1st quarter of 2023, the yearly chart is much more bearish. Below is a regression channel that I created of the entire stock market history dating back to 1871. It helps us measure and compare every major market top and bottom in history. Below is a closer view. To put things in perspective, the June 2022 bottom was the same standard deviation from the mean as the Great Depression peak. The stock market is so overvalued from a historical perspective, that we had to undergo one of the worst first 6 months in stock market history just to get down to a level that is roughly as overvalued as the Great Depression peak. The Shiller PE Ratio confirms this scope of overvaluation, as shown below. The stock market is extremely overvalued because of monetary easing. Monetary easing is a central bank experiment that began in recent decades and was normalized in the years following the Great Recession. Today, the amount of assets on central banks' balance sheets due to monetary easing is unprecedented in the past 322 years for which reliable data exist. The monetary easing experiment has created tremendous reliance on its continuity. Under the surface cracks are beginning to appear, as indicated in the chart below, which shows the impending rise in cost to the U.S. federal government to finance its debt in the future. Only time will tell how the experiment ends... Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your thoughts. Thank you. If you'd like to plot the weekly and daily expected moves for SPY on your chart, try the indicator "SPY Expected Move by VIX", which is calculated from the VIX rather than from the implied volatility of the options chain. The expected moves that I've posted above were manually calculated by me using SPY options chain data. If you'd like to learn how to calculate the weekly expected move yourself, this video can help: www.youtube.com
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
60
BEST BULLISH SET UP OF THE WEEKStumbled upon the U chart and I see some possible magic. Clearly has gotten obliterated even more than the overall market. What I don't like about the chart is that the price is currently under IPO price which is always a red flag. I am not sure what kind of BS has been going on since their IPO but I'm looking strictly at technicals. What I love about the chart VOLUME VOLUME VOLUME that's what I want to see as a bull. Appears to be some clear-cut textbook accumulation complete with a nice retest. That green doji to end the week is sexy. If it opens red tomorrow or turns red this is the play of the week IMO especially if the rest of the market is holding up. As always not financial advice just some opinions.
NYSE:ULong
by EZmoney24
1
SPX/SPY Fib Retracement Key Levels I've been watching SPX/SPY very closely to see which direction it decides to go through the rest of the year. We are at a VERY IMPORTANT range. Initially the top trend line acted as resistance and short bias looked to be validated with the reject of the 0.681 golden zone. You can see a bounce off the shorter term long bias 0.681 retracement almost perfectly from this years low. Short term long needs to hold 0.618 for us to see retest of highs trend line. This will be the best entry point for short position into the rest of the year as a retest to break out of channel is going to likely reject. Ultimately SHORT bias long term , potentially LONG bias short term . Short Term PT $420 Long Term PT $334
AMEX:SPYShort
by stonkhodler
SPY Analysis: End of AugustThis is a daily chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with its weekly expected move plotted for August 29th through September 2nd. For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price within the current week, based on the level of implied volatility as calculated from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior week but before the opening of the current week. Assuming the asset's price is normally distributed from its mean, there is approximately a 68% chance that the asset's price will close the week within the range of the weekly expected move . With this said here is my latest SPY analysis: Set Up Score : 1 out of 10 This score measures the likelihood of a bullish breakout. A score of 0 suggests a very low chance of a bullish breakout and a score of 10 suggests an extremely high chance of a bullish breakout. Currently, the score is 1, which is very low. Therefore, the risk-to-reward is against opening new long positions at this time. One should wait for consolidation to enter long positions. Weekly Expected Move : As noted above, there is a 68% chance that the week will close within this price range. High price: 416.23 Low price: 394.39 Volatility : The potential for increased volatility remains high. As you can see below, the VIX broke above the weekly EMA ribbon and its Stochastic RSI shows that it has only just begun its oscillation upward. How high is the VIX likely to go? If the resistance trendlines shown in the chart below continue to hold, then the VIX should begin to retreat once it hits the 30s. If the weekly candle closes well above 30 then it's likely that we will see yet even more volatility and the June bottom will become vulnerable. With this said, increased volatility is what we expect this time of year from a seasonality perspective. Seasonality : The August to October timeframe typically sees increased volatility. The S&P 500 usually declines into the close of August relative to its peak in mid-August. Therefore, in the midst of all the selling that may or may not happen this week, keep in mind that selling is typical for this time of year. Fibonacci levels : Price is retracing the bull run from the June low to the mid-August high. Last week closed almost exactly at the golden ratio (0.618) of this move. The next Fibonacci level below is 396.95 and it is not too far from the bottom range of the weekly expected move (394.39). So these levels could act synergistically to potentially support price, should it fall down to this level. Regression : Below are two regression channels that I fitted to the data in a manner that maximized the Pearson scores, and in a manner to reflect both the bear market downtrend and the rally from the June bottom. Regression channels simply help us determine where price is moving relative to its mean or average. It appears that the June rally is no longer governing price movement and that price is regressing to the mean of the larger bear market downtrend. If price falls to the bear market regression channel mean, I would expect it to find some degree of support at that level. Weekly Chart : The weekly chart shows that price continues to retrace downward following a bearish inverted hammer that formed when price hit the Ichimoku Cloud. Subsequently, price fell below the EMA ribbon - this is bearish. Therefore, both the weekly EMA ribbon and the weekly Ichimoku Cloud continue to act as resistance to SPY. As you can see above, now price has fallen below the EMA ribbon while the Stochastic RSI is oscillating down. This is also bearish. A rare event occurred in early August whereby the K value of the Stochastic RSI reached its maximum value of 100 while price was still not above the weekly EMA ribbon. This rare event typically occurs during economic recessions, but has been also been identified during the recovery stage of market crashes outside the context of recessions (e.g. following Black Monday in 1987). Monthly Chart : The below monthly chart shows an inverted hammer candle in which price was pushed right back down to the EMA ribbon. Inverted hammers after significant selling are actually signs of a bullish reversal. They represent the capitulation phase of the bottoming process. Whenever a candlestick forms a long upper wick after there has been a significant sell off but also after the stochastics have started to oscillate back up, this reflects selling into any signs of strength. The market participants who sell or short into any signs of strength need to exit before a sustained bull run ensues. Since this is still occurring in the candlestick for August, this means that more time (more months) must elapse before a major sustained bull rally is likely to emerge. Yearly Chart : Although the yearly candle is not completed, the chart shows that we are precariously sitting on the third Fibonacci extension of the Great Depression high. The Stochastic RSI shows a bearish cross of the K line and D line. For more details about why this concerns me, you can view the below post for my long term projections. Stage of the Economic Cycle : Late Stage (Stages are early, mid, late and recession) Since the 10Y/2Y yield curve is currently inverted we are in the late stage of an economic cycle. Below is a chart of how each sector typically performs during this stage. Credit: Fidelity Investments We are most likely in Stage 6 of the economic cycle as shown below because stock, bonds, and commodities have all been declining to some degree in the past several months and because the yield curve is inverted. Once the yield curve inverts, economic contraction will subsequently occur. Although the general trend of all assets is down during Stage 6 there can still be rallies before contraction takes hold. Credit: StockCharts.com For my thoughts on the coming recession you can view my post here: Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your thoughts. Thank you.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
43
BOUNCE TIME (CHECK MY HISTORY)SPY has been getting absolutely shellacked as I predicted. Closed a bunch of my shorts now I am adding some short term longs. Now SPY has approached a key support level at 390. You can see in the past couple months 390 has acted as support and resistance. Now its time to do its job as support. As you can see I don't expect much of a rally but am expecting a short lived rally. That is when I will begin adding back to the short side. Not financial advice just my opinion.
AMEX:SPYLong
by EZmoney24
1
S&P today vs 1920's bubble The Dow Jones Industrial average was the most important index in the 1920's as the nation industrialized. Today the spotlight is more on the S&P. The similarities between both bubbles is striking, both visually and from a TA standpoint. Although we have seen more violent pullbacks due to excess leverage and world events, the paths are nearly identical. The S&P has respected the same fib levels as resistance and similarly timed (although more violent) pullbacks as in the 1920's bubble. Most people seem bearish and the economic environment is certainly not a tailwind right now but this chart comparison is striking. Currently we are seeing the more violent pull back from the inflation and rising rates but the S&P is going higher. The comparison priced in the 2008 recession, the COVID dump, and I believe it will prove itself accurate again by ripping higher into a final parabolic move. Although the gyrations are not identical, it is eerily similar. Our current pullback is deeper but we will see the SP near 5700 by the end of the year or sometime 1st quarter next year. I lean towards the end of the year because selling pressures for tax purposes will be strong (especially with a doubling of IRS agents). Tell me what you think.
SP:SPXLong
by ceesounds
1
$SPY in oversold territory - Fibonacci analysisThe overall market had an impressive rally in July as it reached its 200SMA where it was rejected at the first attempt. Jackson Hole proved to be a turning point for the markets as the FED continues to be determined to fight inflation at all costs. Despite better than expected inflation readings, the markets continued to drift lower. We are approaching an important inflection point in the $SPY. Around $395 we have a re-tracement of 0.618 from the recent highs which may be a good area to try some longs for a snap-back rally. For today, see if we get some window dressing or not. The best scenario will be a dip below yesterday's lows and a subsequent reclaim of $396 in order to offer a possible squeeze into the closing. Watch the leaders for clues today!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Eclubtrading
XLP/SPY indicates probability for a move to the upside higherIdea is based on the XLP/SPY chart using the inverted relationship between them. Since we have just made a strong move to the upside in XLP/SPY during the latest bear market, price has extended well above the 50 MA, a retracement towards it is warranted and leads to the SPY moving higher historically. The probability for a move to the upside at least in the short term is therefore higher! If we drop below the 50 MA and close back above it on the weekly chart, that would be an excellent place to short the SPY again! However, if we break below it and continue to the downside, then expect continuation to all time high.
AMEX:XLPShort
by NQunlocked
6
$SPY poised for another 20 pt run?🔸️Ticker Symbol: $SPY timeframe: 4H 🔸️4X Bull Pattern 🔸️Investment Strategy: Long Events: J. Powell speaks tomorrow morning, and I think market makers know where this is going.. I am also bullish! TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: $SPY has seen a pretty decent uptick over the last few weeks, with healthy pullbacks; but has many thinking... "have we hit bottom??" Who cares, we are heading up.. so lets go with the trend. Take a look at our advanced trading indicator (Trendsi ATS/ Dashboard) paints the story on the four hour. Money Momentum (white middle line) has bounced beautifully off the bottom green bands, which indicate money flowing into the market. Next, we have a big green dot in the middle of our green band, which means we had key EMA crossover, on a bullish trend. Lastly take a look at the chart, we have price bouncing right off the lower regression channel. The last time we had all four indicators in favor of a bullish run; SPY ran almost $25. I will definitely be keying in on how the S&P continues through the next few weeks, but I would anticipate another couple of bullish weeks before tempting another direction adjustment. Good luck, and happy trading! 🔔 Follow for daily stock, crypto and forex technical analysis . ⚠️ Trading is risky, and I understand nothing is guaranteed. Proper risk management should be in place at all times to minimize losses. Please consult a financial advisor before trading. All Inclusive Trading LLC is not a financial advisor and may not be held liable for any losses which may occur.
AMEX:SPYLong
by cj-
SPY Option Setup 4/15 - 4/19The market seems to be heading back into a bullish direction. Im looking for SPY to break $429, if this happens I will enter a Call and will be looking to take profit towards $437. If SPY doesnt break $429 and instead creates new resistance then I will be looking to see if SPY goes back into the $420 - $424 zone. If SPY enters that zone and breaks the $421 support then I will be looking to enter in a Put. If entered in the Put I would look to take profit around $412 - $415. Overall my biased is Long, I'm thinking Bulls are going to continue to take over the market and Calls will be in favor.
AMEX:SPY
by BigCEO2022
$SPY bulls in charge? maybe for now..$SPY momentum has been strong for the past few weeks. after the market switched gears to the upside after the government lifted off the covid restrictions this summer, and ok earnings in some of the big tech stocks couple weeks ago. i believe after the restrictions got lifted off, it helped the economy to get back on its feet. but despite the covid restriction being lit off, it created massive supply chain issues, and inflation. this is due to massive back log of the supplies that didn't get sold in the past 2 years because of the covid. Also, small businesses try to make up for the loss of profits during the pandemic. here's my day trade price target for SPY on FRIDAY 08/15/22. ============================================================ For calls; buy above $429.17 and sell at 431.28 or above For puts, buy below 426.49 and sell at 424.17 or below ============================================================ Welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play ) I am going to explain where I think this stock might possibly go the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities for day trades or scalp play. If you have any questions or suggestions on which stocks I should analyze, please leave a comment below. If you enjoyed this analysis, I would appreciate it if you smashed that LIKE or BOOST button and maybe consider following my channel.
AMEX:SPYLong
by CHRIS_B58