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S&P 500 ( BEST Buying Area ) LONGSince we are facing a supposed Crisis, we are going to try to analyze which zones can be the best buying zones for the S&P500 and be prepared to be able to buy Shares, participations in the S&P500, etc. when the time comes. We can see that by technical analysis, we are in an uptrend for years. The Fundamental supports are: - 3194 : Represents the 61% Fibo of the last impulse from COVID19 + Bottom of the Channel. - Between 2508 and 2185 : ( Zone ) Institutional Support + 61% Fibo of ALL the impulse since 2009. - 1863 : Last Zone of Institutional Support. - In case of a break of 1863 the next zone would be between 800 and 700 ( it would be an extreme Chaos ) All these scenarios are possible, although each point mentioned above is less likely one than the other to happen, but you always have to have a broad view of the market. - The first buy signal to watch for is the monthly RSI. When it reaches the Low levels and we observe a Reversal in the indicator, it has always been the best buying point. - The next buy signal to watch for are the above mentioned points. The price must converge at the same time in the zones mentioned above. We do not know exactly what point the price will reach, but we do know where we should look. Once the two scenarios happen, we can prepare to BUY a good amount of Stocks or the S&P500 itself. These are scenarios that happen very few times in life, we must take advantage of them. In 50 years as we can see we have had 3 equal opportunities that we can live again, from the first opportunity we had 28 years passed until we could have a new similar purchase signal, then 7 years passed until the next signal, and this time ? we are still waiting, 13 years have passed since the last opportunity, but it seems that we are closer to a new golden opportunity ... . Therefore, it is essential to have sufficient liquidity. Good luck
SP:SPXLong
by javieralcazarono
SPY bullish to 440 in about 4-6 weeksBroke down a lot of analysis in my weekly outlook video on youtube. I looked at the 2 previous bear markets, excluding the 2020 so the '00-'02 and '07-'09. Found some very interesting similarities. But we are, at least for now, oversold on many technical indicators. And really the market over extended to the bearish side, and now we will go and over extend to the bullish side. Just the way the market works. One interesting statistic I found was that bullish moves after the bearish moves this early on in a bear market, retrace about 85%. That would get us back to the 440 level on the SPY. SPY get over 432, it will be back within 10% of all time high. You will start to here the narrative that the market is out of a correction; that will push it to 440. But that will be the time to bail. Hope you had a great weekend. Time to get back to work.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Options_Trading
S&P 500 inverse Head and Shoulders Chart PatternWe are on the daily timeframe and we can see that historically buying the S&P index on RSI lower than 30 is an opportunity. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is decent: 20.34 Min: 5.31 (Dec 1917) Max: 123.73 (May 2009) I have 2 scenarios: 1. Inverse head and shoulders chart pattern with a price target of $4900 by the end of the year. 2. Worst case scenario: bull trap at $4150 an retracement to the pre-pandemic level of $3390. I tend not to believe this scenario because of the too low price per earnings ratio of the S&P. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SP:SPXLong
by TopgOptions
6
Has the market found a bottom?Yesterday's action in the $SPY is a bullish sign for the overall market. We put in a low around $385 which coincides with the recent head-and-shoulders pattern that had a price target around $380. With futures higher today, there is some room on the chart to $400-404 before encountering more resistance. If this was a temporary bottom, watch the semis and small caps for clues. Putting on more risk vs this level is a good risk/reward strategy for both active and long term investors. $AAPL reaching $138 and $MSFT $250 are further confirmations.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Eclubtrading
2
$SPY April 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on 5112022The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
SPY S&P 500 Compared To 2008 - Will We Follow The Same Pattern?The daily chart for the S&P 500 looks eerily similar to the chart from the 2008 crash. We have already crossed below the VWMA 100 and VWMA 500 now which are both historically very supportive moving averages. I think it's very possible we chop around in this area for the next couple weeks while we wait for the VWMA 100 to cross below the VWMA 500, but if we can't stay supportive back above the VWMA 500, it will likely fall pretty hard. If it's anything like the 2008 crash, it should be a steep drop from here, but there are a lot of other factors at play so we will just have to wait and see. The 2008 drop fell 56% from its high over about 510 days. If we perform the same this time, that would mean a drop to around $210 that would happen around the middle of 2023. Again this is just if we repeat the exact same thing statistically. $210 is also the low from the 2020 pandemic crash and a likely area for it to hold if it does make it down that far. Something to note though is that when matching the two timeframe's chart patterns, the 2008 chart pattern took twice as long to play out. So with the bottom reaching a 56% drop over 510 days, it looks very extended and not very similar to the timeline from 2008. This makes me consider that if we do follow the pattern from 2008, it may happen in a shorter timeframe such as a year or so. This is purely speculative and obviously there are a lot of other things that factor into this, but I'm just comparing chart patterns here as possible outcomes. We should see some good support in that purple cloud though on the way down. Those are the EMA 1000 and EMA 2000 which I are typically very strong support/resistance. If we do follow the same pattern as 2008, I'm waiting for price to reclaim and stay supportive above the VWMA 100 before entering LEAP Calls when it rebounds. Then wait for price and the VWMA 100 to get back above the VWMA 500 for confirmation of another actual bull run to begin (but that could take 2+ years to happen again if this scenario plays out). Drop your thoughts in the comments, I'm curious to hear what others have to say on this comparison.
AMEX:SPYShort
by FriendOfTheTrend
3
MM False Bearish Breakout (SPY) Although I am titling this idea as "Long", this is more neutral than long, although it is geared towards Long. As we can see, many stocks such as $FB are down nearly 50%. This includes $NFLX and many others. That being said, $SPY is only down about 17% , far less compared to many other major stocks (AMZN is > 40% down from its highs!). One of two things are likely to happen. 1. $SPY possibly falls a little bit lower, and then rips up 6-12% points before it eventually makes a longer term dive, or 2. The more likely option: $SPY and other stocks find temporary bottoms soon (not necessarily today or tomorrow, although not impossible), and then starts a new trend which is either more continued consolidation, or the beginning or continuation of the old uptrend. EITHER WAY, stocks are likely to find some sort of temporary "bottom", and then rip from there. Again, consult the Fear and Greed Index: 20: Extremely Fearful. www.cnn.com Even if we are heading into a recession (as many around me and people in the news are pointing to), even in the 2008 housing crash, on the way down the overall market made 6% jumps, 10% jumps, some even up to 15% jumps. As technical analysts we must take advantage of these swings and use them to our advantage. We Know that stocks such as $AMZN, $GOOG, $FB will likely do some sort of DCB, or retracement. When this occurs it will propel the overall market to rip up potentially bringing it into a new uptrend thus around now and the next few weeks could be a great buying opportunity for new investors... That is of course all relies on whether or not $SPY can hold above the trend lines I drew all the way back from August 2021. If price action cannot quickly shoot up above support, and continues to fall from there (potentially coming back up to go down again) then we are in for a not-so-fun ride. Let me know what you all think in the comments below! This post was kind of rushed since I have been off of Trading View for two years getting more practical experience and knowledge of TA, and was itching to do another post since I forgot about this site. I plan on doing more posts here in the near future to get more feedback. I am always learning, so please feel free to reach out to me and let me know personally what you think of my TA, or just write it in the comments! Good luck everyone! M
AMEX:SPYLong
by matteophone
SPY at 400, close bearish and go bullishPutting this out a head of time. So you can get your plan ready to go. As the SPY gets to 400, close bearish positions and go bullish. The 400 price level will fill the open gap from April 2021, and a target I have planned for since December. I'd imagine the VIX will also be spiking. I will be picking up Sep '22 430 calls, as I expect we will have a bounce that lasts probably 2 months. I will have more analysis in my weekly outlook YouTube video later today. Good luck traders.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Options_Trading
Backtesting the FOMC meetings: are the rate hikes priced in?I’m going to profit off of the fact that next Tuesday (May 3rd) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) main meeting will take place to backtest how this event affects the markets (focusing on Bitcoin but in the end all the markets are connected). Firstly, I’m going to talk about what I expect Jerome Powell to say in the upcoming meeting, and then I’ll explain how they affect price. Lastly, I’ll estimate some technical targets. Meeting expectations So briefly, the results of the last CPI were 7.5% year over year (YoY) inflation, not above nor below the expectations. The jobs report that came out on March 31st showed signs of rising wages and a decrease in unemployment. As these events are already priced in as they happened weeks ago, the approach I want to take on this data is that the Fed wants to keep their position, not too dovish but not too hawkish, as the expectations are being met. The thing that the Fed has looked more at is the current conflict in Ukraine, which affected supply chains but, surprisingly, didn’t reduce consumer demand. And this means that they will have to start being more aggressive on the next rate hikes, announcing 50 basis points (bps) in the next two meetings. Regarding this unpredictable situation, if they keep the same position (which I see likely), they would want to return to 25 bps hikes as soon as they can. The market reaction With all that said, the Fed is likely to maintain their ideas, so I’ll dive into the backtesting part of the article. If we take the distance between every meeting since January 2021 and the next swing high/low (in percentages), and do an average excluding the outliers, we get around 8% move to the upside after every meeting. Note that this is usually driven by momentum, and the market reaction in the long-term may be totally different (as we see in November and December). However, the Fed has changed (and thus the market reactions) since they said inflation is no ‘longer’ transitory. The odds of a recession started to get higher and the fear kicked in. Then, in January, I think the price reacted positively as the Federal Reserve showed that they might not turn hawkish. And the same happened in the last meeting, when everyone feared the consequences of the war. Nothing can change now: we have a catalyst (the Fed announcing they’re going to hike 50 bps instead of 25), markets have trended down before the meeting and technical analysis, though especially on-chain analysis are still showing bullish signs. Targets based on technical analysis Before anything, I’m still confident we have to take the liquidity below $37k, which I expect to see at the start of the week, before the FOMC. Usually liquidity taking action implies that there is going to be a bounce just after the price is reached, so this makes percent sense if we add the volatility that there should be during the meeting. In the next few days after it, I’d expect at least the high Bitcoin has set a few days ago at $40.4k to be taken, which is a 10% upside from $37k (close to the average move since 2021). If we end up going higher I’d expect the fair value gap (or FVG) at $45k to fill, which would represent a 22% move (similar to the last two meetings). Lastly, I’d expect the SPY to move similarly and try to consolidate somewhere around $440 as most earnings haven’t been bad, with the only big exception being Amazon.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by config_json