$SPY Forecast For Years To Comeplease dont take my opinion as financial advice i'm just a 17 year old with some speculations.
with that being said let me explain myself.
With the fed pausing still i believe we will keep rallying till we see our first cut once we get that first cut it'll be the market top.
The fed has been sitting on their hands for way too long and with inflation sneaking back up i dont see it getting better until its too late. stuff will start breaking soon and it'll just put us more and more into a downward spiral.
going into 2025 we will be in a bear market and throughout 2025 we will be trying to fight a spike of inflation which will scare the market and bring us down to 2022 highs and if shit hits the fan we will continue to see downside going into 2026. the battle against inflation isnt a quick fix and this will take time (a couple years)
we will eventually recover but it wont be till we see the fed's inflation goal of 2% for a couple months of consistency that'll be our green light for ATH.
I will be scaling into end of year shorts starting at $550, $560, and final $570 im not missing this opportunity with the stock market this overbought knowing that the dot plot forecasts higher inflation to come next year. Taking profits on the way down as more data comes out.
Thank you for your time and i will be open to hearing others opinion.
Spylong
SPX - Enjoy the rally while it last!For those who have been here since 2022 early 2023 when there was so much fear in the market and we called the market had bottomed. I think it was the right call, even though we had a lot of naysayers. Now I think we are nearing the end of this rally which I estimate will be sometime in February 2024. I have two outcomes the green line below which I highly favor and believe that is the path and the grey line which is definitely possible but unlike in my opinion due to election year. Also it looks like we are following the cup and handle. I have also explained in my other ideas why I think we are like in 1990 and 2012 (base on the fear). If the grey line happens, Biden loses the election guaranteed so I am certain the fed will hold the stock market at least until after the election.
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SPY LONG: scout for hourly higher lowBulls defended the weekly low and made a convincing breakout yesterday. This is a powerful statement, although buyers have not yet proven their control. To do that, they must first establish a weekly higher low, which is likely to happen next week (of course, we need to monitor how things develop). This presents a great opportunity for a long play, but buyers should wait for a pullback and scout for an hourly higher low. Ideally, this should occur near the previous Volume Area High (VAH). An example of the trade is shown on the chart.
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Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.