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Market Crash Only Days Away If VIX Repeats Consistent HistoryThe S&P500 Volatility Index is currently breaking out into levels that historically has been catastrophic for the overall market. On the monthly chart, we can see that whenever the VIX breaks out and confirms above the light orange trendline plotted on the chart, double digit drops in valuations happen for the S&P500 usually within mere weeks. Which means any day or moment now we can see a major crash for the broader market.. much greater even than what we have seen so far as the VIX appears to have much bullish momentum by painting 3 consecutive higher lows and multiple higher highs on significant time scales. This will definitely now be one to watch as this would negate our former long idea on SPY due to the sudden turn of events on the S&P500's volatility. If the VIX can have its price driven back below the orange line and CLOSE this monthly below it, that would give market bulls hope. Similarly, many assets are at major fork in the roads on their charts right now, and the VIX as we can see is no exception.
TVC:VIX
by TradeVibez
5
SPY Bounced! - Key areas to look for SPY had a big gap down today all the way down to 427.46 (-1.65%) but managed to bounce back at close. Here are the key areas to be watch out for. - A have some good support at the 21day EMA (426.75ish) and could play it off the bounce there for a short term play to the upside. -A close below the 21day EMA would be a bearish sign and we could see it testing 50day EMA again as you see in the chart. If we close below 21day EMA, I would play it to the downside with a short term target on the 50DAY EMA. -Going all the way down to the 50DAY EMA would be considered as a small correction. That's about another 2.44% downside from where we're at now. If we somewhow get a mini correction all the way down to 50DAY EMA, this is where I would load up on calls as this has been a major major support in the past couple months. AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPY
by Ross-Santos
SPY Weekly Prediction and Historical Corrections AnalysisIn the last 3 months there have been 3 major up trends and corrections. We currently are in the 4th uptrend and a correction might develop in the next 1-2 weeks. The historical corrections show that the market corrects about 40-60% of the previous uptrend in a quite short period of time. In particular it takes a time between 10% and 50% of the uptrend time to correct. We have been in an uptrend for the last 13 days. A correction might come soon. The options implied volatility suggests a possible range between $423 and $435 till the end of the next week (9-July-2021). A correction of the previous uptrend should bring back the price to the $423 support. The whole setup seems a perfect point for a correction. However, as we can see from the technical indicator William%R, a positive accumulation is possible. In fact, we might see a similar situation like the one developed in the second uptrend area. In this case the price might continue rising in the next 1-2 weeks postponing the correction further in the future (3-4 weeks). We expect a price between $435 and $423 by the end of next week.
AMEX:SPY
by CucabarraTrading
7
Repetitive pattern on SPY - 1 Month analysisNotice the repetitive pattern on SPY (1 day correction followed by 2 days of strong recovery and a period of consolidation with low volatility. We are in a really low volatility environment. Options prices are low but there are still nice opportunities to collect premium around 16-delta strikes. Implied Volatility: 11.41% Historical Volatility: 9.48% IV Percentile: 3% IV Rank: 4.34% IV High: 35.75% on 10/28/20 IV Low: 10.31% on 06/25/21
AMEX:SPYLong
by CucabarraTrading
4
Bullish summer theory SPYHere is my crazy bullish theory for the market... (chart in daily) Indicators : MACD curling back to bullish and RSI back over the neutral level of 50. Waves : The last double bottom could be the a-b-c correction for the previous run, meaning that we can enter in a new bullish run. Last week drop stopped in the support zone for wave 2, a bounce over all time high would mean that wave 3 is officially started. Targets are on the charts. The summer run would also respect the fib fan. My theory : I don't think we will get a big correction during the summer with the economy reopening. Historically, july is a bullish month. The correction would start around september. The 10% correction that we are looking for would bring SPY back to 400 for the test we all waited for. Voici ma bull theorie pour le S&P 500... ligne du temps en jours Indicateurs : MACD est en train de courber vers le haut et le RSI est de retour au-dessus la zone de neutralité. Waves : Le dernier double bottom serait le a-b-c que nous avons besoin pour pouvoir commencer le prochain cycle. La chute de la dernière semaine s'est terminé dans la zone de support de la wave 2, un bris du haut historique voudrait dire que nous sommes dans la wave 3. Les cibles sont sur la graphique. Ma théorie : Je ne crois pas que nous aurons une correction lors de l'ouverture officiel de l'économie avec le retour à la normal. De plus, le mois de juillet est un bon mois pour le marché historiquement. Drôlement, la correction que nous attendons de 10% nous mènerait à un test du niveau historique de 400 pour SPY, niveau que nous attendons tous depuis longtemps.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Willgau13
1
SPY (S&P 500) BULLISH until July/August ELLIOTT WAVE THEORYThe S&P500 ( SPY ) has seen lots of sideways price action and consolidation for the past few weeks or so, but I believe that we could be seeing an impulsive break-out in the near future. This would form the impulsive wave 3 of a final wave 5 push to the upside before the bear markets kick in around the summertime months (July-August). We will need to see confirmation of a bullish break-out to know that we have entered an impulse wave to the upside. If SPY can break-out over 421-422 (heavy resistance levels), targets of 430+ are very achievable as denoted in the charts. A possible explanation for the recent lack of volume and price direction could be due to the fact that meme stocks ( AMC , GME , BB, BBBY , WKHS , etc.) have taken over the market and soaked up buying interest. Once buying power gets re-directed back into S&P500 stocks, we should see some bullish momentum that is needed to kickstart the impulse wave to the upside.
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnthonyW99
6
SPX Shortsqueeze Fiesta? My long trade.Hi traders! SPY / SPX is at all-time highs and traders are beginning to short. As we have seen in the Ethereum run-up, this behavior can lead to a short-squeeze fiesta. Ironically, more shorts lead to higher highs, until the very top - from where price finally breaks down for good. Have we made the top? We don't know, so we can focus on smaller timeframes and take one trade at a time. What is happening? On the 4h we see a difficult formation that is interpreted by many analysts as an ABC correction of the downtrend. However, on the subwave we see a slight violation of the wave C ratio. We can now assume that we might be in a wave 3 of 5, and pre-market price confirms this bias. Where do we go from here? If price goes higher, my assumption is that SPY will reach target 1 or target 2, which I have marked with a red box. How to trade it? A short from target 1 or 2 can be an opportunity for a scalp. Assuming that we are in a wave 5, it is safer to long. If price reverses on target 1, the green box (.382 fib reversal) presents an interesting level, assuming that the corrective subwave 4 is similar in magnitude to subwave 2. Should price reverse from target 2, we can easily derive an entry with a new fib pull, looking for the deepest possible level (.5 fib). What if not? If price breaks down from here, we can assume that the downtrend is intact and start looking for pullbacks to short into the trend. In that case we are in a motive wave 1 down and short once wave 2 has retraced. Happy trading!
AMEX:SPYLong
by UnknownUnicorn12250317