SPY (S&P 500) BULLISH until July/August ELLIOTT WAVE THEORYThe S&P500 ( SPY ) has seen lots of sideways price action and consolidation for the past few weeks or so, but I believe that we could be seeing an impulsive break-out in the near future. This would form the impulsive wave 3 of a final wave 5 push to the upside before the bear markets kick in around the summertime months (July-August).
We will need to see confirmation of a bullish break-out to know that we have entered an impulse wave to the upside. If SPY can break-out over 421-422 (heavy resistance levels), targets of 430+ are very achievable as denoted in the charts. A possible explanation for the recent lack of volume and price direction could be due to the fact that meme stocks ( AMC , GME , BB, BBBY , WKHS , etc.) have taken over the market and soaked up buying interest. Once buying power gets re-directed back into S&P500 stocks, we should see some bullish momentum that is needed to kickstart the impulse wave to the upside.
Spylong
Selling 5 Delta Spreads!Hello guys, hope all is well. Today I got into a SPY $411 / $408 spread expiring 06/04 /21. This put credit spread has a 5 delta which gives it a 95% chance of it being OTM by expiration rendering it worthless. I was able t to get $9 of credit for each spread which would give me a 3.09% ROI for the week.
Hope you have a great day
SPX Shortsqueeze Fiesta? My long trade.Hi traders!
SPY / SPX is at all-time highs and traders are beginning to short. As we have seen in the Ethereum run-up, this behavior can lead to a short-squeeze fiesta. Ironically, more shorts lead to higher highs, until the very top - from where price finally breaks down for good. Have we made the top? We don't know, so we can focus on smaller timeframes and take one trade at a time.
What is happening?
On the 4h we see a difficult formation that is interpreted by many analysts as an ABC correction of the downtrend. However, on the subwave we see a slight violation of the wave C ratio. We can now assume that we might be in a wave 3 of 5, and pre-market price confirms this bias.
Where do we go from here?
If price goes higher, my assumption is that SPY will reach target 1 or target 2, which I have marked with a red box.
How to trade it?
A short from target 1 or 2 can be an opportunity for a scalp. Assuming that we are in a wave 5, it is safer to long. If price reverses on target 1, the green box (.382 fib reversal) presents an interesting level, assuming that the corrective subwave 4 is similar in magnitude to subwave 2. Should price reverse from target 2, we can easily derive an entry with a new fib pull, looking for the deepest possible level (.5 fib).
What if not?
If price breaks down from here, we can assume that the downtrend is intact and start looking for pullbacks to short into the trend. In that case we are in a motive wave 1 down and short once wave 2 has retraced.
Happy trading!
S&P 500 bulls under pressure Just like Nasdaq, bulls of S&P 500 are also under pressure. It rejected 4185 first and then unable to close above 4169 level. Now must hold 4129 level. Close below 4113 red flag. Trend line last line for bulls to defend. Then upside target still 4221. This week may decide direction for S&P 500. A cautious bullish bias.
AMD PUTS - TRADE OF THE YEAR IF IT BREAKS 300% GAINERGuys,
If this breaks under this is a MASSIVE gainer on PUTS. Massive. Not only will it full fil the trend bounce at $60 and the possibly descending broadening wedge which overall tends to be bullish with big break upside. It gives you the possibility to not only be short but confidentially swap short to long at $60.
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ONLY WORTH TRADING IF IT BREAKS UNDER THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS.
SPY Intraday Week 18 UpdatePerhaps my initial idea was right and I was early on my flat-top count. I opened my position too early off the indication of a VIX triple top but should have been paying more attention to how it would behave around the daily 50ema. So far it's getting smashed at 20 every time and that indicates to me that my idea is still in effect. Not bullish after next week though.
S&P futures getting closer to upside resistance level. Upside target is still 4235 as long as 4113 holds. If 4163 fails, next bullish bounce can be seen from 4146 or 4135. Close below 4113 may indicate short term trend change unless we see a quick crash and bounce around 4050. On upside, 4188 is immediate resistance, once overcome can move towards 4235-4240.
SPY: Buyers come in again after a low volume dayToday's bar was a bullish bar and went above the high of yesterday's
low volume bar. April 27 and April 28 were low volume days
as well.
When price continues to put in new highs despite
these low volume days it is a good indication price is headed higher.
4250 and 4300 are the next targets for the S&P.
I do not advocate buying into the highs so entering on pullbacks
waiting for a price action entry is best.
We'll see what tomorrow's bar brings.
SPY Intraday Week 17We need one last breath on the RSI to get buying momentum for this last wave up to resistance, in the process of building a 30min triple bottom for a 5-wave start. Especially after earnings, next week should be bullish. Double rejection of the primary trendline, hard resistance at 418. Short down to lower .618 range, completing ABC correction. Lots of confusion here during this week's environment, which generally means we're in a whiplashing ABC correction. What's really happening is we're just consolidating.
SPXThinking this, IH&S pattern has not completed yet up to 4240 zone. & bulls r eating the dips up, daily still looks weak but 4050 will probably be the bottom for now & then back up to 4240 and probably keep going higher towards 4400. The OTC penny stuccos will thrive b c it will be risk on.
Could be wrong but thats where my bets are placed. GL everyone
SPY: 3,2,1 Blast OffBuyers have yet again taken price above a low volume buy bar.
Price went above the low volume bar of April 13th and those
three following bars were "normal" volume days which is a strong
indication that the buying is strong and we are definitely headed
higher.
There might be a small correction but it is highly probable
we are going to continue to put in new highs on the S&P. According to the daily chart
as it is right now, 4,300 on the S&P is a reasonable price target.