Spylong
What Is Going To Happen Long-term With The Stock Market?1: DAX: Looking at the weekly, you can clearly see what DAX has done. It doesn't take an EW expert to see that we just finished wave 4. Wave 3 ended at 13.362 (1.618) fib, which means this correction is a wave 4 correction. Our rule 1 was: If it broke Wave 1 which was at 8122 the wave structure would have been invalidated. But since it didn't, we are looking at wave 5 up to 17k DAX.
2. USOIL: The commodity, have been on a massive selloff the past weeks. Looking at the bigger picture we see that US OIL just finished it wave (E) formation down, which indicates that the selloff is done. Since we have finished this descending wedge pattern, it should now retrace and to atleast 40 usd and breakout of this wedge, meaning it would go above 100 USD in longterm.
3: VIX . VIX is at a really high spot right, while its nearly impossible to do EW count on vix, we can use other indicators such as RSI and CCI. RSI at the same levels as the peak of 2008. Also we have the CCI at 400 levels such as 2008. Which indicates that we are very likely to see a decrease in the selloff.
4: IWM. Which looks at the small-cap sector in the US, indicates that the selloff is an major ABC correction. We are currently undergoing the last C wave down and we are paying very close attention to the 1.618 fib at 93.08 USD. In extreme cases wave C can go for the 1.618 and coupled with the extreme pandemic and fear in the markets, I see why we went that far. in addition the selloff already went past the 0.5 fib, which is likely for C waves.
So what is there to come?
I think its very likely we will see a bounce coming in the next week or two. I dont think that we will sell off further. I expect 220 SPY to hold. Also in correlation with DAX we see that DAX will push up for a wave 5 to 17k. And since the market are in correlation with each other, we can correlate it with SPY. Spy will likely do a B wave up to 3100, while DAX at the same time push up to 17k. That is gonna be a very important level to look at, as we may expect a C wave down to 200 SPY there.
SPY PT 2022All green to me chief, Powell's monetary policy rocket of a heated market is set to blast off this next year.
$SPX Outlook$SPX closed the week green after 6% pullback. Key pattern is now 3900 as resistance & 3710 as support. With the stimulus being passed over the weekend, looking for a bullish push targets 4000+ before market rolls over, similar to Crypto market outlook. If 3710 triangle support fails we could see 3530 before the market bounce.
H&S ideaGood Evening
If this an Head & Shoulder Pattern
then 4072 is a Target
BH-Numbers are BORIS Number
you can find more @
howhighhowlow.com
Good Luck
SPY/Emini/ES1! : 4 areas of bullish interest for next weekMonthly / Weekly / Daily + 4H analysis for E-mini SPY (ES1!).
Order flow on all timeframes is bullish - hence expecting 38% trend rejection, or 4H bullish Fair Value Gaps or Order Blocks to hold in discount area.
Wait for these areas to get tested - and trade only if you see a bullish sponsorship at these levels.
Trade safely, apply good risk management & take partial profits!
SPY - Buy setupMy trade plan for SPY:
If current projection holds, SPY could see min. $425.
If we break below $383.87, the projection will be invalidated.
Give me a follow and I will post more charts.
Good luck and trade safe.
SPY PT 04/2021 UpdateElliot price action is much further extended than I anticipated. Moving through wedge in a more dramatic manner & reducing the number of steps by one. New PTs roughly established. Sideways then up. Weak bottoms for dayz.
SPY PT 04/2021SPY is running to ATHs. Record equities flowing into markets, intergenerational wealth transfers, vix declining, running into a 5-wave impulse to the moon.
US Market Technicals Ahead (22 Mar – 26 Mar 2021)For this upcoming week, Investors will be watching the scheduled testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday and Wednesday before Congress, as 10-year bond yield reached its highest in 14 months. Personal consumption expenditures inflation data will also be released at the end of the week.
Before his joint testimony to Congress with Yellen, Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Monday at the start of a four-day conference organized by the Bank for International Settlements on innovation in the digital age.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) traded the week to a all time high of 3,989, before returning all its gain with a weekly loss of -0.77% (-30.2 points) for the week. Optimism about the prospects for the economic recovery has accelerated a shift into bank and other value stocks, powering the $SPX to record levels during the week.
With $SPX remaining above its 20DMA & 50DMA and at a higher low trend formation, the immediate support to watch for $SPX is at 3,860 level, a break on the convergence of both major moving averages. Resistance to watch for $SPX is at 3,989 level, a continuation to break its all time high level.
Powell, Yellen testimony
Powell and Yellen testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday where they will discuss the health of the U.S. economy and the importance of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the recovery from the pandemic.
Financial markets have diverged from the Fed on the possible future outlook for monetary policy, sending yields on U.S. Treasuries to their highest in more than a year.
Investors are pricing in a first rate hike sooner than the Fed currently expects, amid fears that the economy could overheat as it recovers from the pandemic given President Joe Biden’s massive stimulus package combined with the Fed’s easy money policy.
U.S. economic data
On the data front, durable goods orders and the personal income and spending reports are set to be the highlights of the week, along with figures on new and existing home sales.
The housing data together with the personal income and spending figures, which includes the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will probably show weakness, due to the impact of severe winter storms on economic activity in February. However, economists expect the slump to be short-lived.
The U.S. is also to publish the latest revision of fourth quarter 2020 GDP, which was last reported at an annualized 4.1%.
SPYHI! We are trading in a nice Rising Wedge channel and retesting the support area. In this case we may have a small pullback. The Stochastic Momentum Index is curving down + the Histogram .
Waiting for a confirmation (to hit the Fibonacci levels / On the smaller time frames (1h / 5m) to identify patterns to enter a long position.
For a small period I`m bullish on SPY.
Today may be a day with nice discounts on markets. Have a plan ! (Exit target- Entering point).
Have a nice weekend everyone! .
Blue Skies Plan - So Far So Good! We bounced off the .38% perfectly for the completion of a mini 4 which coincided with a retest of one of the channel trend lines. Looks like next stop is 4004-4034 for a small wave 3. It'll look like a rejection off of those numbers when we reverse down for another wave 4 which could retest the same channel trend line we bounced from today. After that we'll start to see some crazy action both directions. Our 5 will look like it's blowing through the 4000 range and could possibly break out of this channel we've been in since November. After 5 completes, this could be a good profit taking spot or time to buy a hedge via uvxy/vxx calls.
Our 2 down could make this move look like a failed breakout from the channel depending on if it's a standard 2 or a shallow 2. If it's a 23% 2 (which we've commonly seen this year), it'll simply retest the channel and resume up. If it's a deep 2, people will think we're crashing again but we won't be. This will be an excellent buying opportunity again for a wild 3/4/5.
Banks & energy are incredibly strong right now and I think this is why we're headed up instead of into a deeper correction. The time WILL come. It just doesn't seem like it's now. Until then, we continue to defy gravity. Happy safe trading, not investment advice, just my 2 cents.
US Market Technicals Ahead (15 Mar – 19 Mar 2021)We have officially mark the start of daylight saving time (DST), as North America have moved ahead an hour on Sunday 14th March. US and Canadian markets will trade one hour earlier than usual in Asia time.
The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated monetary policy meeting will be the big deal for global financial markets in the week ahead. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the economic reopening could boost inflation temporarily and that the US economy was going to start to see stronger employment in the next few months. Still, the Fed chief also said that the central bank was still a long way from its inflation and employment targets. Investors would be eager to hear if the central bank will take any measures to bring bond yields down, which saw the 10-year yield surge above 1.60% to the highest in a year on Friday.
Besides the Fed meeting, U.S. retail sales data will be in focus for further indications on the strength of the reopening rebound.
Meanwhile, in earnings, there are just a few big names set to report their latest financial results, with global economic bellwether FedEx ($FDX) and athletic apparel giant Nike ($NKE) likely to draw the most attention.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) continued its recovery to end up +2.63% (+100.8 points) for the week, gaining traction to recapture its all time high at 3,965 points, a mere 20 points (0.5%) away.
At the current junction, $SPX have managed to trade back above its 20DMA & 50DDMA, along with a negation of its short term trendline resistance highlighted last week. Immediate resistance for $SPX is currently at 3,965, a continuation to break its all time high level.
Federal Reserve Policy Meeting
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET (18:00 GMT) on Wednesday, keeping it in a range between 0.0%-0.25%.
Perhaps of greater importance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold what will be a closely watched press conference 30 minutes after the release of the Fed’s statement.
Investors will be looking for clear signs that Powell and fellow policymakers are concerned about the current spike in yields amid mounting inflation expectations.
U.S. Retail Sales
The Commerce Department will release data on retail sales for February on Tuesday at 8:30AM ET (12:30 GMT).
The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales fell 0.6% last month, following January’s surge of 5.3%.
Excluding the automobile sector, core retail sales are expected to drop 0.1%, after climbing 5.9% in the preceding month.
Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy.
Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth.
FedEx, Nike Earnings
The fourth-quarter earnings season has all but wound down, however results are expected from a number of big names in the week ahead, with most of the focus falling on FedEx, and Nike, which both report Thursday after the close.
Other notable companies reporting this week include Dollar General ($DG), Crowdstrike ($CRWD), Coupa Software ($COUP), PagerDuty ($PD), and Sundial Growers ($SNDL).
SPY LongWill the spy make a new ATH today? I got in 391 strike at close yesterday for a 1.72, lets see how today plays out
Wedge FormedThere is an important level at around 390 that forms the top of the Wedge along with the higher highs and higher lows forming the upward line.
I believe it might pop all the way to 395-398 and then take a steep drop from the people collecting profits and then the stops kicking in so you'll likely see a double legged drop. Demand Zone spotted at around 378 so I would think that would be the bottom but would be cautious. I do mostly Options Swing Trades within a day or two.
