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US Market Technicals Ahead (08 Mar – 12 Mar 2021)President Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid bill was passed by the Senate on Saturday and sent back to the House for approval which will take place on Tuesday. Investors will be closely watching the progress of this aid bill through Congress this week against a backdrop of concern over what such a large stimulus package could do to inflation and interest rates. Market participants will also be focusing on U.S. inflation figures with a report on the consumer price index due out on Wednesday and the producer price index scheduled for Friday. In Europe, the European Central Bank will hold its latest policy meeting on Thursday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) reversed most of its losses in late Friday to end up +0.83% in a sign some bargain-hunters may have already swooped in after a bumpy week. This comes after $SPX decline over -3.55% in three consecutive session. At the current development (since last week’s highlight on the structural breakdown of $SPX) Price Action remains below 20DMA Price Action remains below 50DMA Price Action is resisted at lower band of 4 Months uptrend channel Further increase of implied volatility since 16th Feburary 2021 $SPX has a short term establishment of Lower Highs and Lower Lowers for a short term consolidated downtrend channel of 100 points range At the current junction, $SPX remains bullish at a mid-term higher low. Further signs of weakness in this correction will require $SPX to breach its immediate support level at 3,720. Immediate resistance for $SPX is currently at 3,915, a breakout of its short term downtrend channel. Stimulus: a double-edged sword? The pandemic relief package will give a powerful boost to the economic recovery and to the stock market, but optimism has been offset by fears over rising inflation and interest rates. Investors have taken the recent run-up in bond yields – which has propelled the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to levels not seen since before the pandemic – as a sign of potentially damaging inflation expectations. But U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated Friday that higher long-term Treasury yields were a sign of expectations for a stronger recovery, not of increased inflation concerns. U.S. inflation figures Investors will be closely watching U.S. inflation figures on Wednesday and Friday amid worries over the potential implications of rising price pressures. Last week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that even if prices jump as anticipated this spring, “I expect that we will be patient,” and not change monetary policies that need to remain supportive until the economy is “very far along the road to recovery”. ECB meeting Thursday’s ECB meeting is the main event for the euro zone after extended lockdowns in the first quarter. Policymakers will assess the damage to economic growth against a background of a vaccination rollout that is struggling to gain traction, particularly compared with similar efforts in the UK and the U.S. ECB head Christine Lagarde will also announce the bank’s new quarterly forecasts at the post policy meeting press conference. Besides the ECB meeting, the euro zone will release figures for January industrial production on Friday, which are expected to contract.
ULong
by jfsrevg
#SPY OR SPX500 OR S&P500 ANALYSIS FOR MARCH 2021Hello Traders, Welcome to March 2021, It has been quite the mixed start in the markets especially with the huge sell-off in the Technology sector. This has alerted us to activity taking place in the market and we've decided to see if it's really a turn for a BEARISH Stock Market but it doesn't seem that we are there yet. After the week of predominant sell off in the markets, we've spotted the S&P Index for a Buy opportunity. As of now, this week seems to be in corrective mode after February's buying, so we shall see next week onwards if bullish action continues above $3900 and higher. TVC:SPX The Trading Regime. Always trade ONLY with what you are ok to lose. Recommend max 3% of account balance per trade, 10% total account exposure. DISCLAIMER: Futures, stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures, stocks and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. ... All trading strategies are used at your own risk.
AMEX:SPYLong
by EvaultFinancialGroup
US Market Technicals Ahead (01 Mar – 05 Mar 2021)Even after President Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic aid bill narrowly passed the House in the early hours of Saturday, the shakeup in stocks prompted by the rapid run up in Treasury yields looks set to continue to be a major focus for markets in the coming week. Investors will be focusing on Friday’s employment report, which is expected to show that virus restrictions kept a lid on jobs growth in February. Appearances by several Federal Reserve speakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell will also be closely watched. Meanwhile, earnings season is wrapping up, but retailers will still be reporting, with Target ($TGT), Kohl’s ($KSS) and Nordstrom ($JWN) due to publish figures on Tuesday, followed by Costco ($COST) on Thursday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) remains in red for the week, furthering its correction by -2.37%. The selling of individual equities was most felt on two separate occasion; on Monday 22nd February ($SPX: -0.56%), and Thursday 25th February ($SPX: -2.60%). It is important to note there were several technical structure being broken on the highlighted Thursday itself; Price Action breakdown on 20DMA (3rd Attempt in last 3 months) Price Action breakdown on 50DMA (2nd Attempt in last 2 months) Price Action breakdown on 4 months Trend Channel (2nd Attempt in last 4 months) Breakdown of immediate support at 3,870 with volume exceeding past 50 trading sessions average by +87%. Increasing implied volatility on the week of selloff. On the flip side, every attempted breakdown on the confluence of above technical structure is accompanied with an immediate, and substantial recovery on $SPX (ie. 1st February to 5th February $SPX: +5.35%). At the current junction, $SPX remains bullish at a higher low. Further signs of weakness in this correction will require $SPX to breach its next classical support level at 3,700, for the first significant lower low to be established since September 2020. It remains wise to capitalize on the potential investment opportunities with a prudent risk level. Immediate resistance for $SPX is currently at 3,830, a support turned resistance level. Tug of war between stocks, rising bond yields The shift into energy, financial and other stocks set to benefit from the economic reopening has accelerated, while rapidly climbing Treasury yields are pressuring tech stocks that have led market gains for years. Tech stocks are particularly sensitive to rising yields because their value rests heavily on future earnings, which are discounted more deeply when interest rates go up. A dovish sounding Fed together with expectations for more stimulus have propelled yields higher and fueled concerns about inflation and the two-track market looks set to continue, at least in the short team. February jobs report With President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package advancing to the Senate Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for February will show how the recovery in the labor market is faring. Government data late last week showed that initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to their lowest in three months, indicating that the slowing infection rate is allowing the labor market to gain some traction. Retail sales also rebounded in January. Economists are expecting the U.S. economy to have created 165,000 new jobs in February, after January’s 49,000 increase. But the winter storms that swept across the South may complicate the picture. Powell speech With the rapid climb in Treasury yields roiling the stock market investors may be hoping for Fed officials to address the selloff in Treasuries. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak about the economy at an online event hosted by the Wall Street Journal on Thursday. So far there has been little sign of anxiety among Fed officials about higher Treasury yields. Last week Powell said the move higher was the result of a stronger economy but added that the rate of economic recovery has slowed in recent months and reiterated that monetary policy will remain easy for some time to come.
ULong
by jfsrevg
$SPY drops to PT 378 then makes new highs to PT 404Going to be an interesting week... President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan is moving forward, raising hopes of another round of stimulus checks for most Americans. The House passed the bill early Saturday, and the legislation will now move on to the Senate. The Senate is likely to take up the measure next week, and will need to iron out some wrinkles that have emerged during negotiations. The biggest hitch is a provision in the House measure that would raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2025. The Senate bill is unlikely to include the increase after the Senate parliamentarian ruled Thursday that the pay hike can't be included in the upper chamber's version of the relief plan. The bill would also boost weekly unemployment benefits from $300 to $400; provide funding for small businesses, schools, and cities and states; offer families with kids a tax break; and boost government spending on COVID-19 testing and contact tracing. If the bill is passed by March 12, the Friday before extra jobless aid is set to expire, stimulus checks could begin hitting bank accounts anywhere from a few days to a week following that, based on the IRS' time frame for distributing the second round of stimulus checks in December.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
US Market Technicals Ahead (16 Feb – 19 Feb 2021)U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps in the holiday shortened week ahead and while earnings season is starting to wind down there are still some big names left to report. On the economic calendar, U.S. retail sales figures and industrial production for January will be the main events to watch. Market participants will also be closely following Thursday’s hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on the recent trading turmoil in GameStop ($GME) and other heavily shorted stocks and bitcoin is closing in on $50K. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continues its February gain with +1.27% for the week. This rally further established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,941 level. At the current junction, $SPX exhibition of a Bearish Divergence pattern that was highlighted last week remains in play; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870. 1. Stimulus President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package will move to the next stage during the week, with the House Budget Committee pulling all the components into a single piece of legislation. Biden’s proposed spending package, coming on top of $4 trillion enacted by his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, would have important consequences for a global economy that is slowly and unevenly recovering after last year suffering its worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. On Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged G7 finance leaders to provide more fiscal support to promote a robust and lasting recovery, telling them “the time to go big is now.” 2. Earnings The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq ($QQQ) closed at record highs on Friday as expectations for new fiscal aid from Washington to help the U.S. economy recover bolstered risk appetite. Investors will be looking ahead to earnings from Walmart ($WMT) on Thursday for insights on the strength of consumer spending. Investors will also be looking at earnings reports from hotels, cruise lines and other businesses that have been badly hit by the pandemic for indications of which could be the first to bounce back as it recedes. Hilton Worldwide Holdings ($HLT) and Hyatt Hotels ($H) are expected to release their results on Wednesday, followed by Marriott ($MAR), Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) and TripAdvisor ($TRIP) on Thursday. 3. Economic data The highlights of the U.S. economic calendar will be data on retail sales and industrial production for January, which are expected to show that the economy got off to a strong start in 2021. Investors will also be watching Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims with the recovery in the labor market remaining slow. Labor market woes strengthen the case for President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion recovery package, which is under consideration in the U.S. Congress. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting are due out on Wednesday.
ULong
by jfsrevg
SPY On Life Support Or On The Verge To Blow?I think we can all agree the market seems to have just been crushing this past year, with TONS of money being injected in and specific large companies doing great throughout the pandemic...but when does this slow down? The WallSteetsBet thing has some positives and negatives in my opinion....I am 28 so I feel like I am a middle child between two generation and have a good reasoning with both the older and younger generations. With that being said, WSB brought in TONS of new retail investors from the younger generation that Robinhood and Webull type platforms hadn't brought in yet.....dumping all their money in not only the "MEME" stocks but across all their favorite sectors....whilst the older generations that still watch the mainstream media see the market as a scam and their fear of "the kids trying to crash the market" has set in and they are pulling 401k and long term investments to get things like gold and silver....or just to hold cash. Now back to this surge of new retail investors that came into the market, lets all be real here....the hedge funds are here to make money and they see this....my PERSONAL OPINION is that they let these kids get in, run some of these sectors up one last time(after that nice pullback/buying opportunity last week) make them feel good about their "investments" and then they pull the rug as many of these companies have had such great run ups since March....it seems like it would be great time to get some nice money off the top. You can see the bearish divergence as well as the sell zones I have created in my attached 1 hour chart. If you pull up spy and look at the last couple double tops, like the one we are seeing here, it is usually followed by a decent size correction....but we shall see. With all this in mind, I am only 6 months into trading and will be the first to admit I don't know the macros and behind the scenes like many others on here might....so please comment your thoughts and opinions so we can all learn!
AMEX:SPY
by TradeWithZack
5
US Market Technicals Ahead (1 Feb – 5 Feb 2021)A big week for earnings, including reports from Amazon ($AMZN), Alphabet ($GOOGL), Exxon Mobil ($XOM) and Pfizer ($PFE). Stimulus negotiations in Washington and the first jobs report of 2021 (January) will all be major events to watch in the coming week, but they are likely to be overshadowed by the standoff between retail investors and Wall Street hedge funds. Investors will be watching closely to see if the short squeezes driven by retail investors continue in what could be a bumpy week for stocks. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) ended the January flat, with a weekly loss of -3.47%. The correction have breached the multi-month long Trend Channel, along with 20SMA support convincingly, with the month’s highest transactional volume witnessed on 28th January. Additionally 50SMA was also breached on Friday session. This pullback affirms the technical Bearish Divergence between price rally and volume decline highlighted last week. At the current junction, $SPX remains trading above 3,660 level, a classical support level established at the start of 2021. The breach of this support will see S&P500 trades at a cumulative loss for 2021. 1. The big squeeze Last week saw retail investors using Robinhood and other apps drive a frenzied rally in shares of GameStop ($GME), AMC ($AMC) and other companies championed on social media platforms including Reddit’s WallStreetBets, that had been heavily shorted by hedge funds. U.S. stock indexes suffered their biggest weekly fall since late October as the short squeezes saw hedge funds sell stocks to cover their losses, despite positive earnings results from market heavyweights like Apple ($AAPL) and Microsoft ($MSFT). Some market watchers are concerned that the wild rally may be a fresh sign of overexuberance that could foreshadow volatility for the broader stock market, while others believe it is more of a sideshow. 2. Earnings With quarterly earnings season in full swing, market participants are looking at whether companies can justify high valuations. “By and large the surprises have been positive, even more so than typical and by and large companies are showing positive operating leverage where they are able to grow earnings a little bit faster than they are able to grow revenue,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L.Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts. Tech giants Alphabet ($GOOGL) and Amazon ($AMZN) are both due to report after the market close on Tuesday, followed by Qualcomm ($QCOM), Snap ($SNAP) and Pinterest ($PINS) later in the week. Some big names in the closely watched healthcare sector are also to report, including Pfizer ($PFE), GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK), AbbVie ($ABBV), Biogen ($BIIB), Gilead Sciences ($GILD), Merck ($MRK) and Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY). 3. January jobs report The January nonfarm payrolls report will give markets the first look at the health of the labor market inherited by U.S. President Joe Biden. The report is expected to show a slight uptick in hiring after the economy shed 140,000 jobs in December (mostly from restaurants and bars), but more substantial improvements are unlikely to come until there is a broader re-opening of the economy. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.7% – almost twice the level that it was just prior to the pandemic. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week said that the economic recovery hinges on the progress of the vaccination rollout. “There’s nothing more important to the economy than people getting vaccinated,” Powell said.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (11 Jan – 15 Jan 2021)Market will likely be focusing on the prospects for a bigger stimulus package after Friday’s employment report showed the U.S. economy shed jobs for the first time in eight months in December amid a resurgence of Covid-19 infections. A further snapshot of how the economy is performing will be presented with upcoming Friday’s release of data on inflation and retail sales. Additionally, earnings season will get underway with major US banks set to release fourth quarter earnings results on Friday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continued with a 3rd consecutive week of rally, closing with a modest gain of +1.83% (68.6 points) for the opening week of 2021. This rally have continued to establish a new all time high level at 3,826 points, also breaking out of a 9 weeks trend channel congestion that was highlighted over the weeks. With plenty of eutrophic moves in highly speculative themes over the past weeks (i.e. Electric Vehicles, Bitcoin, Alternative Energy and Biotechnology), there were observation that some of the previously market-leading mega cap companies are not in participation of the week’s rally. Several of the higher profile companies, particularly the FAANG, remain either in a consolidated triangle chart pattern, or a box ranged rectangular chart pattern. Additionally, $SPX traded lower on the first two days of the year, with the month long highest sessional volume observed on Tuesday alone. At the current junction, the 20DMA have been nicely supporting $SPX in rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. There is also a significant pick up in trading volume since the start of 2021, and it is imminent for market volatility to further uptick towards a 50 points ATR14 range within the next two weeks. The immediate support to watch for any potential weaknesses is at 3,780 level, a confirmation retracement for Friday’s Bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus hopes Stocks closed at record highs on Friday, despite data showing the U.S. economy suffered its first net loss of jobs in eight months in December, after Biden said his economic relief package will be in the trillions of dollars. Biden said his administration’s economic package will also include unemployment insurance and rent forbearance. The package is due to be unveiled on Thursday. 2. Economic data, Fed speakers The U.S. is due to release data on consumer price inflation on Wednesday, while retail sales figures for December are due out on Friday. Inflation is expected to tick slightly higher, but remain subdued, while retail sales are expected to have been dampened by the surging virus. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak on Thursday. The U.S. central bank has indicated that interest rates will remain on hold near zero through at least 2023 and said the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. 3. Banks kick off earnings Big banks will kick off the U.S. corporate earnings season in earnest with JPMorgan (NYSE: $JPM), Citigroup (NYSE :$C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: $WFC) posting fourth-quarter results on Friday – the first S&P 500 companies to report for the last quarter of coronavirus-stricken 2020. Some investors expect company earnings and economic data to play a greater role in moving stock prices this year.
ULong
by jfsrevg
2