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US Market Technicals Ahead (16 Feb – 19 Feb 2021)U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps in the holiday shortened week ahead and while earnings season is starting to wind down there are still some big names left to report. On the economic calendar, U.S. retail sales figures and industrial production for January will be the main events to watch. Market participants will also be closely following Thursday’s hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on the recent trading turmoil in GameStop ($GME) and other heavily shorted stocks and bitcoin is closing in on $50K. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continues its February gain with +1.27% for the week. This rally further established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,941 level. At the current junction, $SPX exhibition of a Bearish Divergence pattern that was highlighted last week remains in play; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870. 1. Stimulus President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package will move to the next stage during the week, with the House Budget Committee pulling all the components into a single piece of legislation. Biden’s proposed spending package, coming on top of $4 trillion enacted by his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, would have important consequences for a global economy that is slowly and unevenly recovering after last year suffering its worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. On Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged G7 finance leaders to provide more fiscal support to promote a robust and lasting recovery, telling them “the time to go big is now.” 2. Earnings The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq ($QQQ) closed at record highs on Friday as expectations for new fiscal aid from Washington to help the U.S. economy recover bolstered risk appetite. Investors will be looking ahead to earnings from Walmart ($WMT) on Thursday for insights on the strength of consumer spending. Investors will also be looking at earnings reports from hotels, cruise lines and other businesses that have been badly hit by the pandemic for indications of which could be the first to bounce back as it recedes. Hilton Worldwide Holdings ($HLT) and Hyatt Hotels ($H) are expected to release their results on Wednesday, followed by Marriott ($MAR), Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) and TripAdvisor ($TRIP) on Thursday. 3. Economic data The highlights of the U.S. economic calendar will be data on retail sales and industrial production for January, which are expected to show that the economy got off to a strong start in 2021. Investors will also be watching Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims with the recovery in the labor market remaining slow. Labor market woes strengthen the case for President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion recovery package, which is under consideration in the U.S. Congress. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting are due out on Wednesday.
ULong
by jfsrevg
SPY On Life Support Or On The Verge To Blow?I think we can all agree the market seems to have just been crushing this past year, with TONS of money being injected in and specific large companies doing great throughout the pandemic...but when does this slow down? The WallSteetsBet thing has some positives and negatives in my opinion....I am 28 so I feel like I am a middle child between two generation and have a good reasoning with both the older and younger generations. With that being said, WSB brought in TONS of new retail investors from the younger generation that Robinhood and Webull type platforms hadn't brought in yet.....dumping all their money in not only the "MEME" stocks but across all their favorite sectors....whilst the older generations that still watch the mainstream media see the market as a scam and their fear of "the kids trying to crash the market" has set in and they are pulling 401k and long term investments to get things like gold and silver....or just to hold cash. Now back to this surge of new retail investors that came into the market, lets all be real here....the hedge funds are here to make money and they see this....my PERSONAL OPINION is that they let these kids get in, run some of these sectors up one last time(after that nice pullback/buying opportunity last week) make them feel good about their "investments" and then they pull the rug as many of these companies have had such great run ups since March....it seems like it would be great time to get some nice money off the top. You can see the bearish divergence as well as the sell zones I have created in my attached 1 hour chart. If you pull up spy and look at the last couple double tops, like the one we are seeing here, it is usually followed by a decent size correction....but we shall see. With all this in mind, I am only 6 months into trading and will be the first to admit I don't know the macros and behind the scenes like many others on here might....so please comment your thoughts and opinions so we can all learn!
AMEX:SPY
by TradeWithZack
5
US Market Technicals Ahead (1 Feb – 5 Feb 2021)A big week for earnings, including reports from Amazon ($AMZN), Alphabet ($GOOGL), Exxon Mobil ($XOM) and Pfizer ($PFE). Stimulus negotiations in Washington and the first jobs report of 2021 (January) will all be major events to watch in the coming week, but they are likely to be overshadowed by the standoff between retail investors and Wall Street hedge funds. Investors will be watching closely to see if the short squeezes driven by retail investors continue in what could be a bumpy week for stocks. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) ended the January flat, with a weekly loss of -3.47%. The correction have breached the multi-month long Trend Channel, along with 20SMA support convincingly, with the month’s highest transactional volume witnessed on 28th January. Additionally 50SMA was also breached on Friday session. This pullback affirms the technical Bearish Divergence between price rally and volume decline highlighted last week. At the current junction, $SPX remains trading above 3,660 level, a classical support level established at the start of 2021. The breach of this support will see S&P500 trades at a cumulative loss for 2021. 1. The big squeeze Last week saw retail investors using Robinhood and other apps drive a frenzied rally in shares of GameStop ($GME), AMC ($AMC) and other companies championed on social media platforms including Reddit’s WallStreetBets, that had been heavily shorted by hedge funds. U.S. stock indexes suffered their biggest weekly fall since late October as the short squeezes saw hedge funds sell stocks to cover their losses, despite positive earnings results from market heavyweights like Apple ($AAPL) and Microsoft ($MSFT). Some market watchers are concerned that the wild rally may be a fresh sign of overexuberance that could foreshadow volatility for the broader stock market, while others believe it is more of a sideshow. 2. Earnings With quarterly earnings season in full swing, market participants are looking at whether companies can justify high valuations. “By and large the surprises have been positive, even more so than typical and by and large companies are showing positive operating leverage where they are able to grow earnings a little bit faster than they are able to grow revenue,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L.Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts. Tech giants Alphabet ($GOOGL) and Amazon ($AMZN) are both due to report after the market close on Tuesday, followed by Qualcomm ($QCOM), Snap ($SNAP) and Pinterest ($PINS) later in the week. Some big names in the closely watched healthcare sector are also to report, including Pfizer ($PFE), GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK), AbbVie ($ABBV), Biogen ($BIIB), Gilead Sciences ($GILD), Merck ($MRK) and Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY). 3. January jobs report The January nonfarm payrolls report will give markets the first look at the health of the labor market inherited by U.S. President Joe Biden. The report is expected to show a slight uptick in hiring after the economy shed 140,000 jobs in December (mostly from restaurants and bars), but more substantial improvements are unlikely to come until there is a broader re-opening of the economy. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.7% – almost twice the level that it was just prior to the pandemic. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week said that the economic recovery hinges on the progress of the vaccination rollout. “There’s nothing more important to the economy than people getting vaccinated,” Powell said.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (11 Jan – 15 Jan 2021)Market will likely be focusing on the prospects for a bigger stimulus package after Friday’s employment report showed the U.S. economy shed jobs for the first time in eight months in December amid a resurgence of Covid-19 infections. A further snapshot of how the economy is performing will be presented with upcoming Friday’s release of data on inflation and retail sales. Additionally, earnings season will get underway with major US banks set to release fourth quarter earnings results on Friday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continued with a 3rd consecutive week of rally, closing with a modest gain of +1.83% (68.6 points) for the opening week of 2021. This rally have continued to establish a new all time high level at 3,826 points, also breaking out of a 9 weeks trend channel congestion that was highlighted over the weeks. With plenty of eutrophic moves in highly speculative themes over the past weeks (i.e. Electric Vehicles, Bitcoin, Alternative Energy and Biotechnology), there were observation that some of the previously market-leading mega cap companies are not in participation of the week’s rally. Several of the higher profile companies, particularly the FAANG, remain either in a consolidated triangle chart pattern, or a box ranged rectangular chart pattern. Additionally, $SPX traded lower on the first two days of the year, with the month long highest sessional volume observed on Tuesday alone. At the current junction, the 20DMA have been nicely supporting $SPX in rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. There is also a significant pick up in trading volume since the start of 2021, and it is imminent for market volatility to further uptick towards a 50 points ATR14 range within the next two weeks. The immediate support to watch for any potential weaknesses is at 3,780 level, a confirmation retracement for Friday’s Bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus hopes Stocks closed at record highs on Friday, despite data showing the U.S. economy suffered its first net loss of jobs in eight months in December, after Biden said his economic relief package will be in the trillions of dollars. Biden said his administration’s economic package will also include unemployment insurance and rent forbearance. The package is due to be unveiled on Thursday. 2. Economic data, Fed speakers The U.S. is due to release data on consumer price inflation on Wednesday, while retail sales figures for December are due out on Friday. Inflation is expected to tick slightly higher, but remain subdued, while retail sales are expected to have been dampened by the surging virus. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak on Thursday. The U.S. central bank has indicated that interest rates will remain on hold near zero through at least 2023 and said the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. 3. Banks kick off earnings Big banks will kick off the U.S. corporate earnings season in earnest with JPMorgan (NYSE: $JPM), Citigroup (NYSE :$C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: $WFC) posting fourth-quarter results on Friday – the first S&P 500 companies to report for the last quarter of coronavirus-stricken 2020. Some investors expect company earnings and economic data to play a greater role in moving stock prices this year.
ULong
by jfsrevg
2
US Market Technicals Ahead (4 Jan – 8 Jan 2021)Markets will face their first major challenge of 2021 as the rapid spread of a new, more contagious coronavirus strain means that economic gains could still be a way off. The December jobs report on upcoming Friday could show that the pace of hiring is slowing down amid renewed pandemic-related restrictions on businesses. Meanwhile, energy traders will be turning their attention to Monday’s OPEC+ meeting where another output boost is on the agenda. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P 500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) rallied with a modest gain of +1.43% (53 points) during the final week of 2020, closing at an all time high of 3,756. At the current junction, $SPX price action remains within the tight 3% trend channel range highlighted; and there will be expectation of a minor correction in the upcoming week in technical perspective, with $SPX trading near the upper bound resistance of its trend channel. Additionally, a short term price-volume bearish divergence is also been observed.  The immediate support to watch for any signs of weakness is at 3,660 level, a break of the lower trendline support. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Vaccine rollout With U.S. case numbers surging and vaccinations proceeding more slowly than projected Senator Mitt Romney on Friday urged the U.S. government to enlist veterinarians and combat medics to give out coronavirus vaccinations. While the U.S. has approved two vaccines, rollout is going more slowly than the government hoped. About 2.8 million Americans received a COVID-19 vaccine by Dec. 31, falling far short of a 20 million target. The U.S. is averaging 186,000 cases a day, down from a peak in mid-December of over 218,000 new infections each day. Health officials have warned that cases will likely spike again after holiday gatherings. 2. December jobs report The first major U.S. data point of 2021 will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls numbers, which could show a loss of momentum in the labor market. November data already indicated the employment market was losing steam, with 245,000 new jobs added, the fewest in six months. For December, expectations are for an even smaller 100,000 gain. 3. OPEC+ to debate supply vs. demand The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia are to hold a virtual meeting on Monday. Oil prices ended December with gains in a positive end to a year that saw U.S. futures turn negative for the first time ever in April. In December OPEC+ held back from plans to boost output by 2 million barrels per day after implementing a record 7.7 million bpd supply cut earlier in the year to shore up prices. Instead, it increased output by 500,000 bpd and agreed that additional monthly adjustments would not exceed that amount. Russia has indicated that it will support another 500,000 bpd production increase from February, despite concerns from others in the group that it is still too early.
UShort
by jfsrevg
Must have hedge in every portfolio SPXS I cannot stress the importance of having this must have inverse ETF in your portfolio during these uncertain times. I have lost faith in believing anything I see or hear after living through 2020. I do not trust the news, data, markets, govt, etc. after going through the biggest fuck fest of my lifetime. This year I learned everything there was to learn about my personality through trading. Trading exposes all of your weaknesses and strengths. It also exposes all of your bullshit and allows you to learn to change your very strong beliefs that market doesn't give a fuck about. Charts also expose all of the bullshit about markets. Divergence (bearish or bullish) is usually a bullshit-expose-barometer for me personally. This chart is probably the biggest mindfuck I had pleasure looking at this past months. If I saw this MAGA bullish divergence on any other stock, I would be buying this stock with all of my ammo and I'd throw a kitchen sink at it. However, with Jerry at the driving wheel - I have no idea what this will do next but I wish Jerry and the gang a Happy New Year and I hope that demogorgon doesnt get his ass and doesnt drag him into the upside down cause Jim Hopper aint coming for his ass. All I am trying to say - keep this one on your radar. For those not familiar with this ETF, copy pasting it from Google: "SPXS is an extremely aggressive bet against the S&P 500, promising to provide -300% of the index's return for a one-day period. The fund, like most geared inverse products, is designed to deliver its 3x inverse exposure to the S&P 500—a cap-weighted basket of 500 of the largest firms in the U.S.—for one trading day." Happy New Year Fellas! PS: always do your own research, dont listen to pajama pants traders online.
AMEX:SPXS
by bossmodetrader
8
SPY about to move with Tesla inclusion and Stimulus I spotted a dragon fly doji followed by all-time highs. I drew an idea of potential price movement in a downward move. The $371 mark is clearly a resistance and it is funneling into a wedge. If it breaks 371$ we could see some price movement to the upside. With the tesla inclusion starting over the next 3 trading days we could see some downward movement. The index has to spend money to buy up shares of tesla. In the Yahoo inclusion to the S&P we saw a dip in the SPY during that event. With the world in chaos while the market is high on hopes of stimulus we can go either way. All I know is there should be a significant move here shortly. Give me your thoughts in the comments below.
AMEX:SPY
by wesbrown4050
4
SPY Holding Up During Holidays? Happy Holidays! After seeing the AMEX:SPY hit ATH last week, some wonder if the flame has just been lit or if it's being put out. Will the market hold strong into the New Years' or will it start a correction as Biden makes his way into office. Right off the bat, I see a few key levels to watch starting with $363.22 as Monthly support and $365.73 as weekly. We should also watch $369.84 and $371.05 as weekly resistance. As the vaccine is distributed nationally and globally, we could aim to expect a continuation up that is unless we see negative news about this pandemic or vaccine. We also need to remember that Biden will be making his transition into the White House on January 20th, 2021. God Bless America
AMEX:SPY
by DotcomJack
3
DOW Trading Under ATH | New Years WedgeAfter seeing the DOW hit ATH last week, it looks like it could continue sideways for the next week or so as we approach the holiday season. I'm watching $29,820 as weekly support and $29568 as Monthly support. Looking toward the upside, we've tested the $30,325 range as ATH twice in the last week, confirming it as a strong level of resistance. I'll be watching this wedge moving into the week as we watch for a breakout. As the vaccine is distributed nationally and globally, we could aim to expect a continuation up that is unless we see negative news about this pandemic or vaccine. We also need to remember that Biden will be making his transition into the White House on January 20th, 2021. God Bless America
TVC:DJILong
by DotcomJack
3