S&P500 RANGE UNCERTAINTY|ANALYSIS
SPY HAS BROKEN THE SUPPORT AND IS STUCK IN A RANGE
(1) The direction of the breakout will decide if SPY "brakes it or make it"
(2) If SPY starts falling it will signal the end of the marvelous rally,
and will mark us entering the recession.
(3) So far it looks bullish within the range. Daytrading the range is a great strategy.
But if you decide to trade overnight- use options instead as a hedge against gaps!
(4) Today is Friday, so if the bullish momentum proves itself SPY will close near the range resistance.
One might consider a long after the mkt opening.
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Spylong
SPY - SP500 ETF s/r analysisHello traders,
Description of the analysis:
SPY support zones ideal for timing long positions (gray). Trade what you understand, trade carefully and sparingly according to the business plan.
About me:
Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (over $4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades.
Jacob
SPY 361 (Long term) + A little bit about meHello everyone, skip this first paragraph if you would like to get into my T.A straight away. I just want to let all of you know about the purpose of this blog. I have always dreamed of becoming one of the best traders that has ever lived. I dream of being up there with the likes of Jessie Livermore, the "Boy plunger". I know it will be a long and rough ride, but I thank all of you that look at my T.A and stick around for my journey to the top.
Technical Analysis
First and foremost, the market is looking incredibly bullish at the moment. Although the volume isn't as high as I would like it to be, I think it is expected for the summertime.
Harmonic Wave Analysis: As we can see from my chart, we have appeared to just come out of a wave 4. Wave 4 does seem to be a pretty shallow correction, but what it lacks in depth it makes up for in length. In addition to this, the market is incredibly bullish at the moment, so it would make sense why the correction isn't too deep. The target for the SPY in the future is the 354-361 area. (These are the 2.414 extension of wave 1 and the 0.618 extension of wave 0-3.
Moving average analysis
On the 2 hour chart, we have bounced off the 200 EMA for the second time which leads me to believe we are going higher up.
On a bigger time frame, such as the daily, we have just seen a golden cross (55 ema crossing over the 200 ema)
This is an incredibly bullish signal.
RSI analysis:
Although there is nothing really appearing on the daily rsi, it is important to note the bullish divergence we have seen on the rsi for the wave 4. This divergence is another sign that we are probably heading a lot further up.
As for the MACD: I do not see many signals coming from this indicator. Although on the 2 hour it is bullishly diverging, on the daily, there is nothing coming out.
TLDR: I believe that the SPY is on its way to 361.
If you agree or disagree with my analysis, please leave a comment as to what you think is going, but regardless of where you think the SPY is going, if you think my T.A is solid, show me by dropping me a like.
Anyway, have a great day,
and as always, happy trading!
S&P500 STRUCTURE LONG
SPY IS MOVING IN A CHANNEL, TOOK A DIP TO THE SUPPORT, THE KEY SUPPORT IS STILL UNBROKEN, THEREFORE LONG!
1- The trendline is intact
2- Horizontal support right below(gives extra confidence)
3- Buy the dip strategy seems to work on SPY
4- Make sure you hedge overnight position(IF rolling) with options, as the channel might break with a gap down!
5- Remember that OPEN/CLOSE levels are VERY important in stocks/ETF's
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S&P 500 - A Predictable BounceWe all knew this was going to happen. You don’t need to be Bill Ackman to realize that the S&P 500 would hit its head soon.
It was predictable - easy to spot.
The question is though: is this a simple retracement or the beginning of a crash?
The only certainty is that every time that the S&P 500 touches its 4-year resistance line, bad things are going to happen in the immediate future. Same pattern in the previous 4 years.
COVID19 potential second wave, civil unrest all over the US, November's elections, outrageous tech valuations, and new retail investors inflating the TSLA or AAPL of this world. After all, RobinHood “democratized” investing - or maybe put a dangerous toy in the hand of the wrong kids, by creating the biggest mass-market manipulation tool of the history, some might say.
It seems to be the perfect recipe for a crash.
Or maybe not?
Perhaps we are assisting to a natural retracement where we pull-back a 10-15% before we are ready to roll again.
Perhaps there is no tech bubble and the Nasdaq is safer than we think. Tech is different nowadays - it has a real impact on anyone’s life. And for enterprises, it accelerates growth and saves costs - it’s a must, not a luxury.
What if the sell-off was initiated by institutional algos? There is no strong catalyst at the moment to justify what happened. The price hitting the resistance level might have triggered institutional algos to book profits. This might have created a chain effect that snowballed to all indices and to retail investors (who, rightfully, panicked).
I personally believe that this is a healthy pull-back and that we should be able to hold up until November's elections.
Who knows? No one knows, no one can know. We can only give opinions.
Let's see what happens today and, most importantly, next week.
Let's be cautious, but let's not panic just yet.
When it comes to my trading activity, I will sit on the sidelines until I get some clarity. I might be back on Tuesday with new setups, or maybe the week after. If the sell-off continues I might add more short setups, as long as there is some rationale behind.
We had a tremendous August (up more than 200% and with an 85% win ratio) and a great start of September.
Time now to be grateful, study, enjoy a little break and hope for a new direction soon.
The important thing is to have a plan both at trading and investment levels and be prepared for such events.
I would love to hear your short-term outlook about the market, where do you see it heading in September, and how this is going to affect your trading (or investment) plan.
SPY AnalysisPrice has been on a long bull run so its about time for a pullback. Price made a big move to the downside but is still in an overall uptrend. Although I know price is still in an uptrend I am looking to go short on SPY if it pulls up into my sell zone before reaching one of my buy zones. I am also not going to just buy SPY at those zones just because price comes into them. I will wait for price to show strong signs of a continuation in the uptrend.
Hope this helps you in the coming weeks!
Don't forget to like and follow!
Pre-elections trading. ExplainedSP500 broke to the new highs. Volume is still very low and the Advance Decline Line doesn’t support this rise too. It is bearish. However, there is still a lot of momentum in this market. Likely we will see choppy trading with upside bias till the middle of September followed by a decline till the end of the month. Pay attention we are getting close to elections. With that in mind, I believe that pullback (if any) will be bought very fast. Besides, the Fed Funds forecast signals a rally coming at the end of September. The best thing we can do now is intraday trading. There is a chance for a swing trade, but only in a month from now.
SPY Trade Plan for 8/26-8/28SPY 8/26 Scalp Plan
Watch for a clean break 344.56 above and to **hold** for it to continue to push higher. My personal PT is around the 346-347 range for SPY 346C 8/26 (0DTE)
On the downside for SPY, breaking below 344 and we'll see a nice pullback onto our support trend line from the hourly.
Supports to watch if SPY pulls back
@342.95 minor support
@342.41 minor support
@341.26 minor support
@339.60-340 strong support
***SPY LONG invalid if we break under 339.5
Dipping below 341.99 and failing to break over and we'll look to enter SPY 336P 8/28 (2DTE Swings) with a conservative SL @342.4
S&P500 on edge of Cliff or Launch Pad? ES
Interesting point in the markets purely going off of a combination of diagonal/horizontal resistance and support lines and the 200 Day SMA. Couple these with current fundamentals and you can place your bets on direction. Keep it simple with levels to watch and you can trade this market with profit.
Levels I am watching:
$3291
$3230
$3062
$3026
Trade at your own risk and move with the market
- PennyBag
SPY - Classic Price-Volume divergence!Price moving higher on relatively low volumes where as on -ve days volumes are significantly higher which suggests distribution is going on at higher levels. Looks like smart money is taking exit at higher levels and retail is hoarding. Price action is clearly bullish but I would be cautious here. Looks like recipe for disaster.
S&P500 SITUATION UPDATE| 8 DOLLARS TILL ALL TIME HIGH ON SPY|
Me and the boys are mesmerized by this unstoppable "Ride of the Valkyries" against all the laws of physics, economics and common sense, which is in limited supply in the contrast to its name these days. Never before the common phrase "the rich get richer as the poor keep getting poorer" been visualized so brutally, namely: SPY is 8 dollars away from reaching new all time high, coupled with the news of 30% downturn in the GDP.
Anyhow, thats what the promise of the unlimited liquidity from the FED means on practice. However, the question is: after the new all time high, whats next?
When the market reaches the previous high, which might be somehow justified by front-running the recovery, I fail to come up with any reason to justify the market getting higher than this mark. The economy will recover no sooner than 2021 by the most optimistic predictions. And I am in the camp of those who are convinced that we are to see a massive recession ahead of us.
However, I will reiterate my point, which I expressed here before: shorting SPY before a clear bearish signal is outright insane.
I hope you all got enough popcorn as this show seems to have no end in sight, completely embracing the Maos formula: the worse the better.
The turning point it seems will be the end of the presidential elections, which, no matter the result will give the market some clarity as to the further direction of the US and the World. +It seems like the vaccine will be available by that time too. 4 more months to go till November.
Lets see how it goes!
Thank you for reading, like and subscribe>> I'll keep you updated!
S&P500 BREAKOUT|STRUCUTRE ANALYSIS|DOUBLE TOP AHEAD?
SPY is trading in an uptrend supported by the FED's "unlimited" liquidity pledge, that manifests itself in the two diagonal support lines.
Both remain intact. As of today we are witnessing what seems to be a breakout of a minor horizontal resistance.
IF the breakout is confirmed, read if the daily candle closes above the level, that would be a strong signal of a bullish continuation.
The target is then the previous market high, where the double top pattern might emerge, as it is certainly the level at which many market participants will start to take profit on their longs, while others might consider opening short positions.
Anyway, DO NOT short or sell SPY before both support lines get broken.
Thank you for reading, like and subscribe and have a nice day.
Spy Pre-Market Thoughts | Daily CommentaryLike the idea and follow me for intraday SPY commentary! :)
Happy Monday!
Unfortunately all my old drawings disappeared, so I'm starting with a fresh slate. This is okay though since the market is in gap land and there's really no prior levels to refer to.
Graveyard Shift
- Market Gapped up and the bulls are deep in no mans land. If they plan on saving the market from a rug pull, it'll be a mostly sideways day.
Resistance levels
(Pre-Market) 328.65ish
328.95 - 329.05
330
Support levels
(Pre-Market) 327.9
327.6
327.23
326.6
325.55
325
Extras
Shared Chart
www.tradingview.com
*This chart will be shared and get commentary all day for intraday playing. If you would like to know my thoughts for this week, see the related chart below*
If this helps you, like the chart and feel free to follow me. I freely offer intraday SPY commentary. Thanks for taking the time to read. All of this information is my interpretation and shouldn't be taken as trading advice. Good luck out there traders!
Bearish monthly divergence on SPY Was looking at tech stocks and noticed some bearish divergence there on shorter term time frames. Checked SPY for any similarities and noticed this...
I think its notable because its a long-term chart with multiple RSI peaks since 2018. If this holds true, one possible scenario is that SPY may hit either a double top, or slightly higher all time high this fall, then go into a serious down turn.
Not saying it will happen, but its within the realm of possibility. Gotta watch the fed and what they do... News also... As its SPY we are talking about, it can certainly continue going up as it has for decades, but this is one scenario...
Note, similar, but much lesser divergence occurred on SPY between May 2007 and October 2007 (lower RSI peaks and higher price points), resulting in downturn.
$SPY Overview - July 21stSPY Market Breakdown - July 21st, 2020
Looking at the 2-Day chart of SPY, Major Divergence on the RSI
Many trader think we've already seen the top, but we haven't even seen a retest of all-time high SPY prices yet.
I'm thinking this red zone (marked distribution) is a good sell off zone, not only because it's the previous ATH price, but tops out because of the absence of buyers above there
Trends tend to continue and currently we are on the path to retest ATH then from there we will re-evaluate.
I expect the market to hit a new high around September-October , before the election , then the crash will begin to try and destroy the economy for the 2nd time.
As always please do your own research, I am not a financial advisor.