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Spylong

Daily Review: ETH, IWM, and SPYNo fireworks followed the close as there was little follow through on the gap up this morning in U.S. markets. The cryptocurrency markets, on the other hand experienced some relief led by Ethereum and that is where we begin. Here is a 4-hour chart of ETH/USD. As in stands, Ethereum is within a rising wedge patter. If you follow Elliott wave, this type of wedge may be categorized as an ending diagonal due to the overlapping of waves. The month of April has been about all markets being in lock step. The chart below is the correlation coefficient of Ethereum and the SPY, the S&P 500 ETF. With resistance approaching for Ethereum could cryptocurrency give us a heads up when U.S. markets top? Below is a chart of the IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF. Unlike Ethereum, the IWM has not broken out yet. Though, I think it may be close. Since April 13, the IWM has been consolidating in a bull flag pattern with a measured target of $128.59. End of week rally incoming? Below is a 1-hour chart of SPY. The at the closing bell the one-hour chart presented with a bearish shooting star. Any reversal at the open tomorrow may be worth buying with stops at $272.14, which marks yesterday's low. If the it is taken out, it would invalidate continuation to the upside in my view. The broad markets have been in lock step for what seems to be the entire month of April. As long as this pattern continues we can continue to lean on market leaders such as Ethereum as an indicator of the impending end of this historic rally.
AMEX:SPYLong
by DailyClose
SPYSold off into demand today but ultimately held an important level at 271. I liked the price action today consolidating in this demand zone and I still think we can push up to complete the overall structure of this relief rally. Tomorrow I will be watching where we open. If we bid up at open, I will watch the 275 level; if we bid up and consolidate around 275, I will look for a retrace back to demand and for it to make a higher low. If this is the case, I think this will confirm that we can be in a wave 3 up (green numbers). A retrace can represent a 1 - 2 wave for the 5 micro waves that make up wave 3 (micro waves in yellow). If we open down and make a lower low, the key price is 271 that needs to hold. Below this and we can see some downside action quick, likely invalidating this count. Again, this is why I wait for the set ups to establish first rather then trade assuming for the set up. If we break down, I think 265 is next level (268; 265; 260). Game Plan: we hold and bid up at open, will trade based on this count. We open lower, going to sit and watch to see potential pivot.
AMEX:SPY
by PT_Marche
2
SPYThink we need a 277 if we want to see a 292. Then again, a vaccine announcement can do pretty much whatever it wants to wreak havoc on market charts! I’ve mentioned in other posts that I don’t like to trade retracements. As we can see, they can really start to morph into many different patterns and it can cause a lot of frustration. When I do trade within these retrace zones, they are only quick day trade scalps. With that being said. In order for me to enter a good long position, I want to see price pick up some buyers around the 277 area. There is plenty of demand and a lot of consolidation there so I think a good base can be built there to finally - hopefully - start a 5 wave move upward to 288 / 292. Also, as I’ve mentioned, above 288.51 is big cautious zone for me, so if holding any longs, grabbing a put to hedge probably isn’t a bad idea. Game Plan: watch to make entry long around 277; invalidation low is 275 and caution high is 288. IF price never gets down there for a long, I will be sitting back and watching.
AMEX:SPY
by PT_Marche
SPYBelow 282.41 I think we go test the lower trend line around 278 where the rally for this wave began. As seen in my count, though only after hours still, price prints below the green invalidation tells me this wouldn’t be the 5 micro wave count up yet and that we could be within a wave 4 retrace of the wedge. Counting again looks like that instead of it being a wave 1-2 up, looking like it may be a wave a - b down. Still think price needs to tag the 292 level before market can do a reversal. So, if at opening the bid is less than 282.41, think we go test 278. If at open we bid greater than 282.41, then my upside count would still be valid.
AMEX:SPY
by PT_Marche
SPYMonday game plan Will look for a retrace to 286 / 285 area for a wave 4 within our 5 wave count higher. Once the retrace hits and if it holds, think it will make a push up to 288.50. If it can claim and hold there, next target is 292. Note my yellow box though. A higher high above 288.51 will mark the higher high of this 5th wave within the overall current wedge up we are in (zoom out and see the white trend lines). Generally when the 5th wave in a wedge makes the higher high (or lower low) you see reversal. I mark the yellow box because at that point I will be exiting any longs I have as I do not want to take on that risk just for a potential few more points. Despite that it can run up to 292, I personally view that with the higher high at or above 288.51, it not only happens to be within the 5th wave of this wedge, BUT IT also will be within our current 5 wave micro count up. So, any moves I do tomorrow will be a small day trade capturing the bounce from the wave 4 retrace. I’ll hold a long for 292 target if, and ONLY IF, I capture a good entry from wave 4 and have a decent enough profit to take some off and leave something on as a runner. **** IF market gaps up tomorrow, will not be jumping in until price action forms. Will wait and see because then our wave 3 started Friday may not be over and may extend.
AMEX:SPY
by PT_Marche
3
SPYThis is why I trade zones: to avoid choppy days and not let myself be swayed by the news. After today, I think we are on our way up of a small 5 wave impulse move up, starting wave 3 right at the end of day. My thoughts is this will complete the wave C up of this overall market relief rally. Will review charts over weekend and verify everything but thinking we can push for the 288 level and try to run for the 292 level. Around 292 is where I will look to enter shorts and to begin the overall market move down. SO I am still leaning bearish, again, until price breaks a higher high invalidation point.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PT_Marche
2
SPY quick updateWell recount update as /es and SPY made a higher high after hours and broke 284. As my previous post, break up we visit 282, as we blew past that after hours and broke 284 (next target), will look for 288.50, which happens to be where after hours is currently sitting. So couple things I’ll watch tomorrow. 1) will look for retrace to demand at 284. If it holds, will expect it to push back to 288 and try for a close above 2) if 288 just holds out, will just continue to sit back! This is still a cautious zone for me If we can get a close above 288, then target will be 292. The 292 area is the .618 retrace of overall market drop AND 292 area just happens to coincide with the 1.272x length of wave C up (wave C = length of wave A generally 1x - 1.2x). And it is also a big supply area Game plan is if we retrace to demand, will enter a small long. If we don’t retrace I’m going to wait
AMEX:SPY
by PT_Marche
4
SPYStill overall leaning to downside. Things I’m watching: 1) went into today expecting a lot of up and down chop and think we got that today; 2) with the inside day, i) think if we break above 280.03 we can go revisit 282 area quick; or ii) we break 275.76 we can go down to 273 area. 3) if we break up, it looks like we could be in an abc retrace for wave (ii) (in red) and will watch for potential entry to short; 4) if we break down, will look for a bounce from demand to indicate wave (i) down is in and we will start to build an abc up for the wave (ii) retrace I’m not in a current position with SPY because I think we are in such a large chop zone right around key levels (around a lot of key levels with individual equities too, I.e. AAPL). If we break up, I’ll lean to watching it as a wave ii and look for short entry for a wave iii down. We break down, will think about watching for an entry for wave ii retrace up
AMEX:SPY
by PT_Marche
4 Ideas on Where the Bulltrap EndsToday we had another rejection off the 275 area, just shy of the 0.618 fib retracement level, and a potential double top pattern is now forming here. However, given that the previous double top pattern at 263 led to a bullish continuation pattern, I could potentially see the 0.618 fib being broken after a run-up from the lower trend line support. This would extend the bull trap, shaking off even more shorts, bring us up to the 0.768 fib retracement level. This area is a key area for a sell-off and trend reversal.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MisterBurkes
2
SPY technicaly based forecast 📌Short intro: I am full time trader - analyst * High accuracy of ideas * Technicaly and Fudnamentaly side in analysis * Comment if have any questions or want to send support * Price action - FIBO - Candl pattern * FX - STOCK - CRYPTO * Simple ideas 💡 SPY technicaly indicators showing we can expect higher bulish market continuation, FIBO 0.382 which is in many cases strong supp is breaked, good bulish candels formation, expecting to see push in price till FIBO 0.6 or till first yellow trend line. 📌Have on mind, trading involves risk, check idea on your own tactic, if have questions pls comment! Thanks on supporting! All best, good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn3983388
6
SPY TechnicalsFew things to identify: #1 V/Spike pattern --> typically a reversal but arguments could be had that this was on the both top and bottom ie Jan/Feb was a blowoff and a correction/reaction should have happened anyways like in Jan 2018. On the bottom, I'm comparing it to 2018. It's the most recent example of the pattern and was a wonderful trade for anyone who acted on it as 2018 was such a profitable year. (Though I do not necessarily agree with motivation behind QE) #2 Fib levels, recovered up to 38.2% today from 340 to 218 (ish), wouldn't be surprised if we react down to 23.6% (~245) over the next two days but unless something else is released about Covid, energy, etc, I wouldn't expect a dip beneath 245 #3 Volume profile: There's a lot of resistance above price so in an ideal world, the stimulus package would provide the momentum to penetrate it but there is still plenty of uncertainty in the world so don't be surprised by sideways trading #4 MACD: it has crossed up so from a technical purist standpoint we are safe at least for a little bit and this should ideally represent a bullish indicator to penetrate the 38.2% level/heavy volume prices Conclusion: Next couple days = bearish, next week = flat/break above 38.2% level
AMEX:SPYLong
by jamesggentis
SPY, Which support will stand a chance against new black swan?Hi, traders. My name is Lukas and I am a beginner in trading, respectively, I only trade 6 months. But that means I have to do the necessary analyzes without it I can't trade. I want to show you how I work on myself and document my beginnings. I use Vix and my strategy is built on to return to average. I highlight the important support levels and resistances that flow from the volume profile, all drawn on graph. These zones determine the ability to respond in some way to the market from 1 to 3, with 1 being the largest. Short description of analysis: We are experiencing negative records that have never been here before. Let us be grateful that we are experiencing something like this, because we will gain experience about markets that they do not even describe in 1000 books and movies. Back to analysis. We can see strong support zones that confirm that markets have already responded to these zones in the past. But we are in a very pessimistic period of time, where markets can fall 10% per day. Focus on long periods, even one year. We are looking for the bottom now, but we will rise soon.Of course, my analysis does not serve like market forecasts and I am not responsible for your trades if you use my analysis for your own trades.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Lucas_Sochulak
6
SPX Support Levels (Nearing buy levels)SPX has been hit hard lately but I think we are now closer to support levels that should be watched closely. I have a few stocks with market cap slashed in half and/or are more than 50% down that I am watching. As I mentioned in my last $AAPL idea, this downturn will move fast now before the fed rate cut and any stimulus package. I believe that we hold the 200MA (second support in the chart) if not then we have a long way down to Dec 2018 lows. I know the expert will blame corona virus but digging deeper, the market was overly overvalued and needed to sell off with or without the corona virus. Now, the corona virus could lead us into a recession in which case whatever extended bounce we get with the stimulus package and rate cut will be temporary.
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn3272672
This is going to hurt some feelings either way How bout those algos this morning huh? Aggressive. Obviously this is going to resolve one of two ways. Bear case - We retested the long term trend line today barring any face rip move higher. With the $320 target hit (albeit for literally 1 minute) and floating around this price level we should head down to retest the gap if we do head lower. If for some reason we break the intermediate term trend line and head back down to the $311-$309 area watch for that head and shoulders i posted about a week or two ago. The fact of the matter is the market structure is garbage and we have gaps all the way down to $292. So if something catastrophic happens we could head back down and retest the $300 former breakout area, but i see that as unlikely. What i do see as more likely is a sell the news event on this "Phase 1" trade deal consider we have a signing date, but no one's even seen the details yet. So that tells me the administration is trying to preemptively do some damage control. We'll see where the big money wants to take us. We may see some volatility in the beginning of the year as firms post gains for 2020 they didn't book for 2019, and in that case look for a minor pullback to the gap fill area as i mentioned earlier. If we bust through that look for support around $314. Bull case - All the big money comes in the 2nd and sees everything as cheap and starts buying. There is what looks like a big ass bullflag printing on /ES. The problem is literally every retail trader who knows what their doing probably went short yesterday. And if we're all expecting a move lower that's when they take our lunch money and rip everything higher, and honestly i see that as more likely. They'll pin it on the "phase 1 trade deal" being signed and we're off towards $3500 in the SPX to further elongate this wizard of oz market we're in. Good news is good news, bad news is good news, and no news is good news and then we hit the start of a new earnings season. We'll see how it plays out but i guarantee some people are going to get burnt either way we go. Oh yea, forgot to mention - The small caps are positive today, again something i use as a leading indicator. This is not trading advice. All of this is based off of TA and should only be construed as opinion.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904