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Spylong

SPY, Which support will stand a chance against new black swan?Hi, traders. My name is Lukas and I am a beginner in trading, respectively, I only trade 6 months. But that means I have to do the necessary analyzes without it I can't trade. I want to show you how I work on myself and document my beginnings. I use Vix and my strategy is built on to return to average. I highlight the important support levels and resistances that flow from the volume profile, all drawn on graph. These zones determine the ability to respond in some way to the market from 1 to 3, with 1 being the largest. Short description of analysis: We are experiencing negative records that have never been here before. Let us be grateful that we are experiencing something like this, because we will gain experience about markets that they do not even describe in 1000 books and movies. Back to analysis. We can see strong support zones that confirm that markets have already responded to these zones in the past. But we are in a very pessimistic period of time, where markets can fall 10% per day. Focus on long periods, even one year. We are looking for the bottom now, but we will rise soon.Of course, my analysis does not serve like market forecasts and I am not responsible for your trades if you use my analysis for your own trades.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Lucas_Sochulak
6
SPX Support Levels (Nearing buy levels)SPX has been hit hard lately but I think we are now closer to support levels that should be watched closely. I have a few stocks with market cap slashed in half and/or are more than 50% down that I am watching. As I mentioned in my last $AAPL idea, this downturn will move fast now before the fed rate cut and any stimulus package. I believe that we hold the 200MA (second support in the chart) if not then we have a long way down to Dec 2018 lows. I know the expert will blame corona virus but digging deeper, the market was overly overvalued and needed to sell off with or without the corona virus. Now, the corona virus could lead us into a recession in which case whatever extended bounce we get with the stimulus package and rate cut will be temporary.
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn3272672
This is going to hurt some feelings either way How bout those algos this morning huh? Aggressive. Obviously this is going to resolve one of two ways. Bear case - We retested the long term trend line today barring any face rip move higher. With the $320 target hit (albeit for literally 1 minute) and floating around this price level we should head down to retest the gap if we do head lower. If for some reason we break the intermediate term trend line and head back down to the $311-$309 area watch for that head and shoulders i posted about a week or two ago. The fact of the matter is the market structure is garbage and we have gaps all the way down to $292. So if something catastrophic happens we could head back down and retest the $300 former breakout area, but i see that as unlikely. What i do see as more likely is a sell the news event on this "Phase 1" trade deal consider we have a signing date, but no one's even seen the details yet. So that tells me the administration is trying to preemptively do some damage control. We'll see where the big money wants to take us. We may see some volatility in the beginning of the year as firms post gains for 2020 they didn't book for 2019, and in that case look for a minor pullback to the gap fill area as i mentioned earlier. If we bust through that look for support around $314. Bull case - All the big money comes in the 2nd and sees everything as cheap and starts buying. There is what looks like a big ass bullflag printing on /ES. The problem is literally every retail trader who knows what their doing probably went short yesterday. And if we're all expecting a move lower that's when they take our lunch money and rip everything higher, and honestly i see that as more likely. They'll pin it on the "phase 1 trade deal" being signed and we're off towards $3500 in the SPX to further elongate this wizard of oz market we're in. Good news is good news, bad news is good news, and no news is good news and then we hit the start of a new earnings season. We'll see how it plays out but i guarantee some people are going to get burnt either way we go. Oh yea, forgot to mention - The small caps are positive today, again something i use as a leading indicator. This is not trading advice. All of this is based off of TA and should only be construed as opinion.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
Possible reversal on the major indices So after the last few trading sessions melting upwards in thin volume it doesn't take much to reverse and plow through that thin volume. But, today's selling was light, and also thin volume. If you were just going off the charts it does show that we had a daily reversal and then pivot confirmation from Friday. Today's daily ended just below the long term trend line i noted in my last few posts. On the intraday we hit the .5 fib retracement on the nose and then finished basically at the lows of the day with what i see as a short cover rally there at the end. In SPY we filled the gap, but in the SPX we did not. Keep that in mind. That is bullish. BUT, on the other hand we did have an impulsive break down from an ascending wedge as well. And on top of that we went up and tried to retest the trend line. We did retest the former breakout area around 320 on SPY which was a retracement target i had. Now obviously this could go one of two ways. I see us either gapping up tomorrow morning and trapping everyone who was frothing at the mouth to go short or gapping down either into or through the gap on SPX and into the 320 resistance area on SPY. IWM did not show as much sell strength and actually was at it's 100 period average volume, which could be a leading indicator. It hit the top of a previously broken trend line and bounced directly off of it after printing a reversal candle Friday. I'm 90% sure this pullback is just that, a pullback. It's most likely people taking profit or re-positioning. If we do break or gap down below $320 expect a test of the gap around $317.50. Also, don't get sucked into this. Just like a lot of traders are trapped at the tops of stocks like TSLA and AMZN this could turn right around and rip your face off once institutional money gets back in the driver seat. This is all barring some huge macro event like the trade deal or repo markets blowing up and if that's the case we have a completely different story on our hands. This is not trading advice. All of this is based off of TA and should only be construed as opinion.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
1
SPX SPY S&P 500 Long Target 3,250 - 3,500From the 50% retracement of the S&P, we're able to project the target of 3,250 - 3,500 for SPX (325 - 350 for SPY). Before this happens, I think it's possible, although not likely, that the S&P reverses to 2,640 level before going up and forming an inverted head and shoulders. Note: I'm not a bull or bear nor did I factor fundamentals into my analysis (nor did I try). Yes I'm aware of the national debt crisis and some economic indicators screaming incoming recession.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ttrending
2
Break, possible recapture, of the 2008-2016 uptrend line In my last post i was stating i was expecting to see a break of the trendline starting from the lows of 2009 and 2016 that we broke in Q4 of last year. Today we had a break of that trendline with what seems like conviction. Looking for a confirmation and then a retest at some point. I don't want to count my chickens too early here but it looks like the start of a parabolic move for the indices, a recapture of this trend line is huge in my opinion. The head and shoulders i mentioned could still be in play if we do retest, and subsequently fail to break out. If we do safely get above this trend line i will be sufficiently convinced that a correction is not coming any time soon until the next macro event (trade, economy, repo market, credit crisis) which honestly could come out of nowhere to smoke everyone down, so keep your head on a swivel. BUT, keep in mind we still haven't broke out of the top of the channel on the hourly. Overall we're bullish until we're not. Still holding my puts and have a target of $322.50. I'm also adding the same weekly chart which has not shown a break out and is still within the ascending wedge. ALSO - Be advised that SPY apparently was to have an ex dividend payout tomorrow. If that is correct we will most likely open about $1.20-$1.50 lower on the underlying. Be advised: This is not trading advice. This is based purely off of TA and is not a trading idea.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
Potential S&P 500 ScenarioIt's been a while since I shared anything like this... most of the last few things were experimental historical models... This is all based in Fibonacci, both price and time... this would have us peaking at about 3450 around late September 2020... Though I don't have the count posted with it, it is based in Elliott Wave as well... The EW concept here is an extended wave 1, with 3 being 0.786 of 1 and 5 being 0.786 of 3 - which leads to waves 3+5 equaling wave 1 (typical when 1 is extended)... Just thought I'd share what I was looking at
SP:SPXLong
by J-Streak
Where to get in on SPY? 302-305 longs? Investors and traders alike are looking at this thing and getting frustrated if they haven't been able to catch any of this long and no one wants to buy the top with the hopes that the upside will continue. So what is a good entry location for continued longs on the SPY? A preferred retrace is the convergence of multiple things. 1. A retrace that is no more than 5% because that would open downside floodgates, we're looking for something around the 3.50% retrace area. 2. Respects the market structure, the bull trend will continue if the retrace creates a higher low, which would be at the wedge break ($305) 3. It respects the support/resistance level we have mapped out based on the volume profile edge, which happens to be a previous all-time high ($302) 4. Volume on the move lower into the support is weak. While volume on the pop above gets strong. 5. The 50% retrace from the start of the move higher to the current high is right at around $303, so the buy zone is calculated to be around $302-305. This will only hold true if your personal risk management and analysis conditions are met. Disclaimer: This post is strictly for educational purposes, this does not constitute as trading advice or investment advice, TRADEPRO Academy is not responsible for anyone's market activity.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TRADEPROAcademy
1
Bear flagNice little bear flag or pennant printing on the hourly up to the daily. Volume is DED dead, people are fading gap ups in the morning, and the news flow is slowly starting to roll over, or algos are running out of cash. But, crazier shit has happened. Technically i would expect this to break down in the southern direction to the major multi year "megaphone" top trend line around $306, but we'll see. If we bust that, expect a test of the $302-303 area, but i see that as doubtful unless we have a huge negative catalyst.
AMEX:SPYShort
by merkd1904
SPY - Quants based Long!Please refer my article below. I had shared some quants on how markets have behaved in the past in trading sessions before and after Jobless claims data being published Below are pointer and the feedback on the performance so far! 1.75% of the time ( 9 out of 12 times), SPY has given an average return of 0.7% 1 week prior to Jobless Claims data announcement date. If you bought on close of 7th Nov 2019 @ 308 , then till 14th Nov close 309.58, you would have made a positive return of 0.51% and held till close of 18th Nov, you would have a positive return of 1.24% 2. 5 out of 5 times in the past 3 years you would make positive returns (average of 0.9%) if you were to buy 2 days after the event date. If you were to buy on close of 15th Nov, held till end of day 18th, so far made about 0.18% 3. If you were to buy 1 week after the event, then 73% of the times (8 out of 11 times) you would make an average return of about 0.5% Now, this we will review on 21st November close f day to initiate the observation and see how it plays off If you see, if you had taken any of the first 2 trades so far, quant would have helped in the probabilistic trades. If you like what you see, please share a thumbs up and comments in the section below Cheers
AMEX:SPYLong
by LoveForCharts
SPY - LONG - Jobless claims data coming up (quants analysis)AMEX:SPY got into a uptrend on the weekly charts as indicated by higher highs and higher lows (marked with yellow zones).We have made a higher high again indicating continuation of uptrend At 289 levels we got the entry signal on the RSI and indicator has been holding on very well Since then, we have a nearly 7 pc move and looks good ahead, unless trend broken Any new entries can be timed by looking at lower time frames. on the retracement moves! Next Jobless claims are due on 14th November 2019. Over the lookbacl for last 3 years data, I am sharing some quants data below 1.75% of the time ( 9 out of 12 times), SPY has given an average return of 0.7% 1 week prior to Jobless Claims data announcement date. 2. 5 out of 5 times in the past 3 years you would make positive returns (average of 0.9%) if you were to buy 2 days after the event date. 3. If you were to buy 1 week after the event, then 73% of the times (8 out of 11 times) you would make an average return of about 0.5% Possible positive returns ahead from both loopback analysis as well as chart ideas If you like what you read, please share a thumbs up! Cheers Akhil
AMEX:SPYLong
by LoveForCharts
2
Something's not right here.The indicator on the bottom is called the cash in/cash out indicator and it's averaged over 100 periods. It indicates net selling since the first Jpow rate cut at the end of July. There has been net selling to the tune of a running sum of -124,924,564,001.and some change the past 100 trading days on SPY. But, we're now up another 8% from the lows of 10/08.. That's a divergence. It doesn't make sense. In order for there to be a healthy bull market/trend there needs to be the normal breathing of the security price. Trend, counter trend, trend, counter trend. Now it's never that simple but for something like the SPX to go on such a tear over the course of a month is not normal. Especially when you have net outflows on both SPY, and the QQQ. That means more people are getting out than in. But the market's going up, quick like. We're not trading on fundamentals or earning's. We're trading on fed fuel and headlines. Meaning the market is pricing in on hell of a deal, and expecting more QE if shit goes sideways (which they'll probably get). "As the central bank’s balance sheet has expanded, the S&P 500 has grown at almost the exact pace." "The results: a $175 billion expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet to $4.07 trillion, representing growth of 4.5% since the operations began. During that time, the S&P 500 has risen just shy of 4%." www.cnbc.com We're inflating a bubble. Again. If we don't have some sort of a correction or pullback shortly i'm expecting a blow off the top and it'll be fucking ugly.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
2
In For A Big Move SomewhereAs my previous posts may have shown, i'm not really a huge fan of this rally. We truly do live in the twilight zone right now and TA is being washed out by many different factors including news, QE that's not QE, rate cuts, tweets, hopium, etc. Technically we've been on this $23 rally on declining average volume, on massive RSI bearish divergences on every TF including the monthly, and up straight out of a half completed descending triangle. Now there's nothing stating this can't keep pumping from here but it seems like the China happy talk crack pipe got a little too hot the past couple days and we've stalled out. We've left multiple gaps down below, and that mixed with the low volume we had on the way up we could see this proverbial house of cards get blown down with a pretty small gust of wind. It seems like the futures traders are the ones who have been sending us higher and it seems like they've wanted to turn this over the past day or two. With the Bollinger Bands on the hourly tightening, which generally precedes a move in either direction, the market has been working off it's 'overboughtness' the past couple days. we could definitely just be bull flagging, but those gaps are like a nagging itch in the back of the markets head that needs to be scratched. Keep that in mind. Be wary and goodluck.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
1
I mean we do live in the twlight zoneAs everyone else is seeing we're at the top, and the end of the massive multi year ascending triangle, as well as nearing the top of the Bollinger. These multi year RSI divergences coupled with that massive ascending wedge, and multi year megaphone scream "SHORT!!" or "LOOK OUT BELOW". I do not see this as a clear break out as we are nowhere near breaking these negative divergences and this entire pump has been on half volume. I did not play, nor even entertain the ascending triangle because it was only about 1% to the real resistance at the top of this ascending wedge around $305. And again, it was on half volume. R/R wasn't there. In my last post or a few posts ago i stated how it would be extra sketchy for us to break up out of the descending triangle prematurely due to unchecked negative divergences on the 1H-4H. Well, that's exactly what we did. Here in the next week few weeks one of two things is going to happen. 1.) We truly are in the twilight zone and all TA is essentially null and voided by rate cuts, QE that's not really QE, and just cheap and fast capital/leverage sending us on another leg up from here. Irrationality wins the day. 2.) The technicals end up playing out and we break downwards out of this wedge and make our way down to at least the 0.382 fib ($256) or roughly there abouts. That is also likely where the 200 period MA will be as well. BUT, weekly MACD just crossed, and RSI is breaking the downtrend. There needs to be a conviction break of the top of the ascending wedge on higher than average volume for me to start thinking differently. I don't buy this bullshit for one minute until we do. Until then i'm short SPY and long bonds. Top of the Bollinger is 305.31. Good luck.
AMEX:SPYShort
by merkd1904
1
I mean we do live in the twilight zone As everyone else is seeing we're at the top, and the end of the massive multi year ascending triangle, as well as nearing the top of the Bollinger. These multi year RSI divergences coupled with that massive ascending wedge, and multi year megaphone scream "SHORT!!" or "LOOK OUT BELOW". I do not see this as a clear break out as we are nowhere near breaking these negative divergences and this entire pump has been on half volume. Here in the next week few weeks one of two things is going to happen. 1.) We truly are in the twilight zone and all TA is essentially null and voided by rate cuts, QE that's not really QE, and just cheap and fast capital/leverage sending us on another leg up from here. 2.) The technicals end up playing out and we break downwards out of this wedge and make our way down to at least the 0.382 fib ($2569) or roughly there abouts. That is also likely where the 200 period MA will be as well. BUT, weekly MACD just crossed, and RSI is breaking the downtrend. There needs to be a conviction break of the top of the ascending wedge on higher than average volume for me to start thinking differently. I don't buy this bullshit for one minute until we do. Until then i'm short SPY and long bonds. Top of the bollinger is 3059.
TVC:SPXShort
by merkd1904
1
Think this was a coincidence?Just out there to take your lunch money. In my last post i stated if we didn't let the price breath a little we'd correct more sharply as we haven't handled the negative divergences on this low volume pump. I can see two different scenarios overnight: White: We retrace the current -.35% print in futures overnight and into the A.M and push back up to the downtrend line of the descending triangle to be rejected and back down to the $297 level. Red: We open up blood red and either gap down, or knife right through the gap at $298 and the 50 period MA. Obviously anything can happen but when you have these low volume pumps with negative divergences the corrections are usually swift and relatively violent. The luster of these earnings "beats" seems like it's wearing off considering expectations were set so low. And on top of that you had some notable misses today with Texas Instruments and Mcdonalds.
AMEX:SPYShort
by merkd1904
3