What a day - Rejection off of medium term trend line on hourlyEven though today's volume was below average it didn't feel like it. I haven't taken a whipsaw to the face like that in a minute. We failed to break through the medium term trend line and the last two hours finally got rejected off of it. In my last post i was expecting a retest of the neckline from the H&S but we ended up gapping over it only to be pushed off the trend line from Dec '18. The last two hourly candles are clearly reversal signals.
I started the day short but stopped out at 2950.50 on ES, reentered at the rejection, only to be whipsawed by some fake news about the Chinese Commerce Ministry before i could even get my stops set. Caught the top of that candle and rode it all the way down till just now. Not holding any position overnight, the chop is real.
I'm expecting us to come back and visit the $288 level on SPY and the $2900 level on ES. But i also foresee many more whipsaws in our future with what seems like the increasingly volatile news cycle both globally and domestically.
Goodluck.
Spylong
Broken head and shoulders neck line, extremely oversold. Just noting that the violence of yesterday and today seems more pronounced than August's sell off. We blew right through the gaps at $291.06 and $288.92. That in itself should tell you this should not be played with. This is the proverbial freight train with no brakes. There strictly aren't any buyers.
BUT with that being said we're extremely oversold on every TF besides the daily, which leads me to believe we could see a short cover rally today, and possibly some more follow through to the $282/200MA level tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a backtest of the neckline/trendline at the $290 level. I've been in and out of this the past two days on /ES and have had a net short position in SPY since we got back up to $300. Watch for the non farm payrolls number on friday, but until then there's no brakes on this thing and the negative news everywhere seemingly is adding to the velocity. Watch for the bounce, it will come eventually.
First target is the $274 May low, and second target around the $262 level.
Good luck.
IS gonna fly sooooo hard kidinsane bull flag created no idea why so many bears with the bla bla of a drop
chart indicated buls in control
daily rsi crossing and now rettesting the support this it 294 293 support bounce need to happen from here if no change to go under 290 area
a break into 302 or 299 will indicated that spy will go for new highs
SPY LONG -4h- Resistance max at 303Same as my previous idea:
SPY SHORT - Resistance max at 303
> Graph and indicators
> From top to bottom :
MACD
- Histogram expand and will shrink
- MACD near crossing buy signal
Graph
- Resistance not it at max 303
- Near support at 287
CCI pointing down
RSI 3 test at 30
Full Stock at bottom
All the best!
Waz-
Short -4h- untill: Pull back at resistance +/- 15,25-15,75SHORT On short term:
Full STO at 87+
RSI toped at 75+
CCI declining 149
LONG On long term:
Buying at resistance +/- 15,25-15,75
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Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend Analysis: In the midst of an adjustment trend of downward direction box pattern price flow marked by limited rises and downward fluctuations.
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SPY SPX ES1! - Eyes open - Easy money is Past UsEyes open if you're long. We're past the point of easy money. Hourly charts starting to show signs of weakening.
I've obviously been bullish, but I'm flexible.
Weekly chart for the $SPY still looks good, but can turn on a dime. By turn, I don't mean huge crash like many are praying for. I mean choppiness with some sharp moves up and down.
SPY SPX ES1! Stay LONG - More Rally to ComeIf you've been following me here, you've been long and enjoying the rally. New highs were inevitable. I still see a lot of bearishness and people picking spots to short - which tells me this market may go higher than anyone expects.
More importantly, the obsession with looking for short spots tells me bears won't get their big crash delivered to them on a silver platter at the next high. More likely, we'll make highs and then just chop around sideways to work off the overbought condition. This would be a frustrating pain trade for many. I've posted my trades and more analysis live on my twitter @marketmind3
SPY ES1! SPX Still Bullish, Pause before higherThe weekly SPY chart continues to look positive.
I circled areas where strong bounce weeks ended up failing and reversing to new lows.
But IMO, those reversals came with poor technicals (MACD trending down and/or negative) and showed big red candles right away. Now, we're seeing different action - MACD is turning up now and last week was flattish, closing at support. Stay long
Interest Rates, Range Consolidation to dominate the marketsWith the markets hoping for a cut, the stakes are high on how the Fed is going to balance whatever stand they take this week.
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TRADERSAI - A.I. Driven Model Trades for FRI 06/14Earnings and Economic Headlines to begin to Replace Geopolitical Concerns?
No market-moving geopolitical news overnight and that might be allowing the markets to focus on economic and earnings related headlines. Chip stocks' earnings concerns (read, Broadcom's), China's weak economic numbers, IEA's oil demand outlook, and Gold's rise...these are likely to consume investors' sentiments today, heading into the weekend.
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SPY looking to pull back. RSI is very oversold.I want to see a healthy pull back to the levels of support showed above. Once we test the first level, wait for confirmation for the bounce for new (higher lows). If not, we will test the next line support. Of course News and Trade could blow through both resistance and support.
This could be building a descending triangle though its way to early to tell.
SPY SPX Bullish Breakout ConfirmedIts not an ideal set-up, but its still a breakout with multiple levels of support below.
Bottom line, we have a downtrend breakout and some technical confirmation. Again, its not a slam dunk.
But my gut tells me sentiment got overly bearish, so there is fuel for a rally. And we have a whole lot of support levels all the way down to $277 SPY to hold a sell-off - trendline, 100-day moving average, 200-day.
On the upside, clear sailing at least to $287. Probably higher