SPY short at all-time-high on 4Hdecreasing buy volume signals me to believe there is not enough bullish momentum to break current resistance level (ATH)
Spylong
SP500 SPY ETF supply and demand analysis and forecastSP500 QQQ ETF supply and demand analysis and forecast for 22nd April 2019. SP500 SPY ETF is trying to break weekly supply at all time highs around 293.
There is a clear long term weekly and monthly uptrend with all time highs previously eliminated and brand new demand zones created on bigger timeframes like the one on the weekly timeframe around 281.
In an uptrend, supply levels are eliminated and demand levels are created and respected.NASDAQ QQQ ETF has already broken all time highs, expecting to see similar price action on QQQ and other american indexes like Dow Jones and Russell 2000 indexes.The bigger the impulse created by new imbalances of demand the better. There is no reason to go short counter-trend on SP500 SPY ETF when everything is heading north and new demand levels are being created. Trading with the trend is always higher odds.
SPY - New Highs? New lows? Which way will she go?!Good afternoon traders,
Let's take a look at spy and what should become a very critical week for the US equity market. Looking at the chart we can see that we obviously had a sharp correction from all time highs, and an equally sharp rebound. It's understandable the markets hesitance to enter a correction considering it has the leader of the free world pinning his success, and arguably the 2020 election to it. A correction right now, is bad, bad, bad, as he would say.
Seeing as we are nearing all time highs again, I would like to quote a popular saying:
"Big money is made in the stock market by being on the right side of the major moves. The idea is to get in harmony with the market. It's suicidal to fight trends. They have a higher probability of continuing than not." - Martin Zweig
So which is it? Are we in a bull or bear market? You, me, and along with millions of other investors are asking themselves. I'd like to point back to the quote, "the idea is to get in harmony with the market" - with that in mind folks, we're about to find out what kind of market we're in. We are currently within 1.5% of ATH.
If you ever had an inclination of taking profits, it doesn't get any better than this folks. My plan is to sit out the next 1.5% and let the market decide whether it's up or down.
Technical indicator wise, we can see they're screaming one thing and one thing only: DOWN. We have divergence everywhere, some of the worst I've ever seen. We're seeing the markets irrationality at its finest diplay right now, and when a market is irrational, there's only one thing you can really do, and that's sit it out.
Next week should be interesting, to say the least.
Thanks for reading, and if you like my content please hit the "Like" and "follow" button.
Have a great day!
SPY Retracement Scenario Before Continued Sell OffHere is a scenario for a 50%-61.8% retracement for SPY, up above $282, before continuing it's sell off.
Looking to the left, there was a very similar structure in late February into early March. You can see how the peaks are quite identical, and on the low following the last peak, there was a retracement between 50%-61.8%... and also to the area of the 100MA.
Currently, that would represent a bounce up above 282 before the selling resumes.
On the current chart, I drew 2 fib lines...
The left one is just to show that the intraday bounce on Friday, March 22 came no where near the level that could be expected from the earlier chart, which would have been between 282.30 and 282.90. It instead topped out at 281.51. This was also well short of the 100MA. If that was THE retracement, then steep selling is likely to continue.
If the low associated with the left fib lines is not "the low following the last peak", then we can count it as not in yet, and take the lowest low from the end of the day. The right fib lines are to show how high the retracement could be before the selling continues. Also, notice the little RSI divergence to end the day...
Both scenarios are bearish, and would see new lows by this time next week.
This is merely to point out the precedence of a possible nice bullish play before we get there....IF the bounce to 281.51 was not it.
Travis
JMJ - UIOGD
S&P 500 SPX LONG Exact at the Long trendlineHello to all who watch my charts.
The S & P 500 is exactly as announced in my last post:
Strong Long.
and is currently running up my blue long trend line.
To all who still write after short I give the advice
Please always remember:
Trade what you see in the chart and
not what could be in the future
or what you think will be in the future.
Then you will also trade successfully
The current chart is always what matters.
Here in the S & P 500:
The next resistance we have to climb is 2866 (ca)
Lets check the next days whether the rally will go on
If my charts will show an another direction to come
I let you know.
--This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only .Alllways do your own research---
SPY, Trading plan.I think the price can move up
- Daily candle close above key level 280.80. On the chart, you see that price bounced many times from it
- Middle - term trend is Up
SPY - Weekly Outlook Mar 04 - 08The resistance zone identified with red is a stubborn area. SPY will have to push hard to get through it. If it falls, it will likely catch support at the daily support line of 277.45 and it almost lines up with the bottom trend line of the channel as well further strengthening the support. If it breaks the channel, it will likely catch support in the support zone identified. If it pushes up, profit targets are 282.66 and 284.38. Any good/bad news is going to make it move fast in either direction.
SPY - Weekly Review Feb 25 - Mar 01The chart from Feb 25 showed the support and resistance zones for $SPY for the coming week (link in related ideas). SPY started the week with a gap up right into the red resistance zone but couldn’t hold and sold off after hitting the upper trend line. The next day it held on to the support 1 level identified on the chart and tried to run for the resistance zone but couldn’t. Started the Wednesday with a gap down but managed to close above the support 1 level and also above the lower trend line. On Thursday, it gapped down again and closed below both the support level and the lower trend line which looked quite bearish, but overnight price action was very bullish which resulted in a gap up today (Friday). Today was interesting. Gapped up in the red resistance zone, couldn’t hold, sold off first half of the day, bounced right from the support 1 level and managed to close the day above the lower trend line and right at the start of the red resistance zone. As expected, this red zone is going to be a troublesome area. Today’s candle looks to be a doji which means no body. Let’s see what next week brings.
$SPY - Weekly Outlook Feb 25 - Mar 01I am seeing SPY hitting the red area early in the next week, possibly on Monday. Then find resistance there and consolidate there. And, possibly, pull back to test support of 278.92 before moving higher and breaking the red resistance area. This looks to me will be a hard resistance area. Any positive or negative US-China trade news can make it go either way fast.
I am currently long $SPY. But I will take profits when it hits the red area and wait for it to clear the red area before entering again. Overall, I am bullish on the market. If the US-China trade deal happens, we're taking off for the moon.
Resistance = 280.40 - 281.82
First support = 278.92
Second support = 276.60
If you would like me to analyse a stock ticker, please feel free to mention in the comments.
SPY Bearish Indicators FormingSPY may continue its sideways chop.
Downside pressure gets stronger.
With no volume we are getting held up by very little.
SPY Bearish Crossover Forming, Divergence, Low Volume...Bearish Crossover Forming, Divergence, Low Volume...
Could see sideways action before next leg down
SPX If it is not a bear market what might happenWhat if this is not a bear market. Has the market ever fallen 20% and then recovered. Well it did of course on that famous day in 1987. The low was in on the first day. The last time a correction exceeded 20% but went no further was twenty years ago in August and (double-bottom) October 1998.
The charts show some, if not complete similarity to 1998. It was preceded by a small 12% correction, then rose to new highs, and then softened by 20% over a months (or a couple of months if you count the double bottom, and there was a consolidation with the 50% point as a base.
My other model (what is there is a bear market) also shows a recovery before falling again, so it is only at the second bottom we will know for sure.
SPX Possible Route to Double BottomFriday's rally was strong, and although NFP euphoria fades, the Powell 'patient' remark and the resumption of China talks are very positive. An A-B-C rally takes us to the .618 retrace from the last high, which is close to the .5 retrace seen in the 20% drop in 1998, for example, and in 2016, before the inevitable double bottom some time in Q1. After that, it's anyone's guess.
2628-2644 is the confluence of the .618 from the last drop, the .5 from the ATH, the 29/30 Oct and 20/22 Nov closing lows, and and A-B-C extension from the bottom, given the New Year opening pullback. The parallel channel helps as well.
Buy a little below here for 2628, then sell for 2347.
SPY , S&P500For now im playing this setup on SPX closed my short from 278 at 268 and longed at 268 golden zone, as of now i still feel a possibility for SPX to jump to new highs of 3000 before falling off as EW suggest this is the only way to me that i can count the 5th wave in a generally reasonable way, only thing stopping this is an algo which has pulled at the previous rejection of 280 and aiming around 260 , however as long as we hold this previous low we still have a possibility of going up as there also is an algo playing at this zone
SPY Inverse Head and ShouldersOkay, looking at the SPY 1-hour time frame it looks to me as though there is a good chance that an inverse head and shoulders pattern will be completed. After a nice bounce back from the low set on Oct. 29th the markets are pulling back today for a variety of reasons. One reason was Apple earnings, another was trade news that came out which the market didn't like, also after a nice bounce the market may have just been ready for a pullback. My feeling is that this will be just a temporary pullback, most likely a couple of days or so then the markets will begin to march higher once again thus completing the right shoulder. I feel the biggest threat to my analysis is if we get additional bad trade news causing the markets to plunge invalidating the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Possible inverse Head-And-Shoulders on SPYIf we see a strong bounce next week, it could signal that we're in an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A likely bottom is forming, good entry point.
Possible Bull Scenario on SPX to Finish 2018I usually don't show what I am looking at on both sides of the trade, so I am going to start doing so in the future... Here is how I see SPX if there's a clean break above ATH and the bull run continues into the end of the year...
$SPY Possible 0.618% - 0.786% Retracement Looking to the past, 1994-2000 Bull Market had an approx 0.618% - 0.786% Retracement, if you compare it to this current bull run that we are in, we are much due for a pull back
