SPY, Trading plan.I think the price can move up
- Daily candle close above key level 280.80. On the chart, you see that price bounced many times from it
- Middle - term trend is Up
Spylong
SPY - Weekly Outlook Mar 04 - 08The resistance zone identified with red is a stubborn area. SPY will have to push hard to get through it. If it falls, it will likely catch support at the daily support line of 277.45 and it almost lines up with the bottom trend line of the channel as well further strengthening the support. If it breaks the channel, it will likely catch support in the support zone identified. If it pushes up, profit targets are 282.66 and 284.38. Any good/bad news is going to make it move fast in either direction.
SPY - Weekly Review Feb 25 - Mar 01The chart from Feb 25 showed the support and resistance zones for $SPY for the coming week (link in related ideas). SPY started the week with a gap up right into the red resistance zone but couldn’t hold and sold off after hitting the upper trend line. The next day it held on to the support 1 level identified on the chart and tried to run for the resistance zone but couldn’t. Started the Wednesday with a gap down but managed to close above the support 1 level and also above the lower trend line. On Thursday, it gapped down again and closed below both the support level and the lower trend line which looked quite bearish, but overnight price action was very bullish which resulted in a gap up today (Friday). Today was interesting. Gapped up in the red resistance zone, couldn’t hold, sold off first half of the day, bounced right from the support 1 level and managed to close the day above the lower trend line and right at the start of the red resistance zone. As expected, this red zone is going to be a troublesome area. Today’s candle looks to be a doji which means no body. Let’s see what next week brings.
$SPY - Weekly Outlook Feb 25 - Mar 01I am seeing SPY hitting the red area early in the next week, possibly on Monday. Then find resistance there and consolidate there. And, possibly, pull back to test support of 278.92 before moving higher and breaking the red resistance area. This looks to me will be a hard resistance area. Any positive or negative US-China trade news can make it go either way fast.
I am currently long $SPY. But I will take profits when it hits the red area and wait for it to clear the red area before entering again. Overall, I am bullish on the market. If the US-China trade deal happens, we're taking off for the moon.
Resistance = 280.40 - 281.82
First support = 278.92
Second support = 276.60
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SPY Bearish Indicators FormingSPY may continue its sideways chop.
Downside pressure gets stronger.
With no volume we are getting held up by very little.
SPY Bearish Crossover Forming, Divergence, Low Volume...Bearish Crossover Forming, Divergence, Low Volume...
Could see sideways action before next leg down
SPX If it is not a bear market what might happenWhat if this is not a bear market. Has the market ever fallen 20% and then recovered. Well it did of course on that famous day in 1987. The low was in on the first day. The last time a correction exceeded 20% but went no further was twenty years ago in August and (double-bottom) October 1998.
The charts show some, if not complete similarity to 1998. It was preceded by a small 12% correction, then rose to new highs, and then softened by 20% over a months (or a couple of months if you count the double bottom, and there was a consolidation with the 50% point as a base.
My other model (what is there is a bear market) also shows a recovery before falling again, so it is only at the second bottom we will know for sure.
SPX Possible Route to Double BottomFriday's rally was strong, and although NFP euphoria fades, the Powell 'patient' remark and the resumption of China talks are very positive. An A-B-C rally takes us to the .618 retrace from the last high, which is close to the .5 retrace seen in the 20% drop in 1998, for example, and in 2016, before the inevitable double bottom some time in Q1. After that, it's anyone's guess.
2628-2644 is the confluence of the .618 from the last drop, the .5 from the ATH, the 29/30 Oct and 20/22 Nov closing lows, and and A-B-C extension from the bottom, given the New Year opening pullback. The parallel channel helps as well.
Buy a little below here for 2628, then sell for 2347.
SPY , S&P500For now im playing this setup on SPX closed my short from 278 at 268 and longed at 268 golden zone, as of now i still feel a possibility for SPX to jump to new highs of 3000 before falling off as EW suggest this is the only way to me that i can count the 5th wave in a generally reasonable way, only thing stopping this is an algo which has pulled at the previous rejection of 280 and aiming around 260 , however as long as we hold this previous low we still have a possibility of going up as there also is an algo playing at this zone
SPY Inverse Head and ShouldersOkay, looking at the SPY 1-hour time frame it looks to me as though there is a good chance that an inverse head and shoulders pattern will be completed. After a nice bounce back from the low set on Oct. 29th the markets are pulling back today for a variety of reasons. One reason was Apple earnings, another was trade news that came out which the market didn't like, also after a nice bounce the market may have just been ready for a pullback. My feeling is that this will be just a temporary pullback, most likely a couple of days or so then the markets will begin to march higher once again thus completing the right shoulder. I feel the biggest threat to my analysis is if we get additional bad trade news causing the markets to plunge invalidating the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Possible inverse Head-And-Shoulders on SPYIf we see a strong bounce next week, it could signal that we're in an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A likely bottom is forming, good entry point.
Possible Bull Scenario on SPX to Finish 2018I usually don't show what I am looking at on both sides of the trade, so I am going to start doing so in the future... Here is how I see SPX if there's a clean break above ATH and the bull run continues into the end of the year...
$SPY Possible 0.618% - 0.786% Retracement Looking to the past, 1994-2000 Bull Market had an approx 0.618% - 0.786% Retracement, if you compare it to this current bull run that we are in, we are much due for a pull back
SPY index – uptrend (30/07/2018)Hello Traders!
There is the clear and pure waves count on SPY index, which has the strong bullish tendency and support the continue uptrend on E-mini S&P 500 near time.
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SPY to extend gains in summer 2018After a significant consolidation period rattled by trade rumors and geopolitical fears, market sentiment and optimism has increased solidified by the record low unemployment rate. All technical indicators are pointing upwards as SPY gears up to test all time highs in the coming months.
UPDATE: Despite excitement today, $2785 is still our targetHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
Symmetrical Triangle Breakout: Potential Upside MoveSymmetrical triangles more times than not break out to continue a previous trend, in this case bullish. Thoughts on how it might look in the days, weeks ahead.
The Weekly 50 EMA on SPY is the Tell TaleOther than the messiness of 2015 and 2016 the 50 EMA on the weekly has been a clear indicator of market support. While people will say that we've been in a bull market for 8-9 years they often forget that protracted sideways move with significant breaches of the weekly MAs. Well we're bouncing off the 50 again or at least it seems but will it hold. I think its safe to say that if we get a weekly close below the 50, it would be wise to be in some cash so that one has money on hand to leg back in at major support levels.
On the daily chart, the 200 is holding up price and we've bounced (obviously) off of that average as well. Closing below the weekly 50 and the daily 200 will likely indicate a larger pullback but the present pattern, and I'll post a daily too looks correctional. There's a large triangle pattern forming which obviously can break either way. However using the triangle pattern in conjunction with the moving averages lends significant weight. If we can break above 20 and 50 on a daily chart, say get above 271-272 and close up there, then market is likely to make another leg higher assuming it makes a new high. If not, and we fail the averages, get into some cash as simply wait.
