SPY leg higher?I think it's worth taking some risk here as the chart looks set up for a leg higher.
Using the fib tools I'm targeting $482 - $486 / 1.618
It's already made a 50% retracement nearly to the dollar and tried to for an all time high.
I believe SPY price will break that level and make another ATH.
Volume is increasing although there is a lot of trading activity in the current range. It may not go straight to $482 but I think $475 will hold as support. If not then $472 will be in the cards and a sell-off could ensue. Past bull markets have gained 200% so it's not unreasonable for SPY to touch $500, especially while we have this momentum. If it doesn't happen now then I think there is less and less of a chance it happens in the first half of the year. I think we'll see $500 or $5000 SPX by February of this year.
Spylong
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price Prediction for 2024This was my article about the SPY S&P 500 ETF price target for 2023:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/l6U1M9dJ-SPY-S-P-500-ETF-2023-Forecast-CPI-Report-Prediction/
I was bullish, but not enough!
In the July 2023 meeting, the FOMC opted to raise interest rates to a range of 5.25%–5.50%, marking the 11th rate hike in the current cycle aimed at curbing elevated inflation.
The prevailing consensus among market experts hints at a potential shift in strategy, suggesting that the Fed might commence rate cuts later in 2024 as inflation gradually aligns with the Fed's 2% target.
Statistically, historical data indicates that approximately 11 months after the cessation of interest rate increases, a recession tends to manifest. This pattern places us around June 2024, aligning with my prediction of a dip in the SPY to approximately $430.
Given that 2024 is an election year, there's an additional layer of complexity in predicting market behavior.
Despite the anticipated mid-year dip, my inclination is that the SPY will conclude the year on a bullish note.
This optimistic outlook hints at the onset of a 3-5 year AI bubble cycle, with the SPY boasting a year-end price target of $540.
The integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors is expected to catalyze market growth and innovation, propelling the SPY to new heights by the close of 2024.
The future of the SPYbased on fib pattern analysis i've been working on for around 2 years this is the beginning of a belief i can nail down the path of the future based on observations the next couple of months. on this chart timing is not accurate but the circles that hover over lines have some important factors to consider. all orange circles are possible retracements but none are guaranteed. on the flip side the green circles hover over lines that will be 100% achieved with the white line being the possible end of this bull run up. this will go to the end of the year and if i have timing right already which i don't claim to, look for spy 505ish by end of year. spoiler alert, at this point i have spy at 160 in two years but that's without enough info to make a real assessment. i am positive about the targets above and drew price levels so you have an idea. also drew a line at the highest point the spy has ever reached on that particular RSI indicator. my guess is we will be kissing it at the 505 or upper white line target whenever that is achieved by.
S&P500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISAs for S&P500 the index retested 4586.00 zone which presented some buying, as far as the long term trend for S&P 500 is bullish I will remain so and look to find buying opportunites only if the index trade above level 4588.00, but if the index break the level 4588.00 I will remain bullish but for me to take the trade I will want the index to trade above 4588.0 but for short positionsI want to see the 4544.00 level take out which for now it seems impossible but, nothing is impossible in trading, my t.p for long position will be @4640.00, which is more of a swing trade.
$SPY Weekly Price TargetsBased off Price Action, the next 2 weeks will determine if we will see new ATH or fill previous Order Blocks (OB).
Currently, we are in an Uptrend with the continuation from Oct. 10th ~$360 Demand. We had a clean break through the OB created on the week of Aug. 22nd. Which lead us to fill the Apr. 4th OB.
We could potentially see a continuation to ATH or a pullback to the $437 FVG with a reversal towards ATH.
If we fail to break through the current OB or the previous ATH we could see a sell off leading to the closing of previous OB's on, Mar. 13th ~$386 & Oct. 10th ~360.