Spylong
The future of the SPYbased on fib pattern analysis i've been working on for around 2 years this is the beginning of a belief i can nail down the path of the future based on observations the next couple of months. on this chart timing is not accurate but the circles that hover over lines have some important factors to consider. all orange circles are possible retracements but none are guaranteed. on the flip side the green circles hover over lines that will be 100% achieved with the white line being the possible end of this bull run up. this will go to the end of the year and if i have timing right already which i don't claim to, look for spy 505ish by end of year. spoiler alert, at this point i have spy at 160 in two years but that's without enough info to make a real assessment. i am positive about the targets above and drew price levels so you have an idea. also drew a line at the highest point the spy has ever reached on that particular RSI indicator. my guess is we will be kissing it at the 505 or upper white line target whenever that is achieved by.
S&P500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISAs for S&P500 the index retested 4586.00 zone which presented some buying, as far as the long term trend for S&P 500 is bullish I will remain so and look to find buying opportunites only if the index trade above level 4588.00, but if the index break the level 4588.00 I will remain bullish but for me to take the trade I will want the index to trade above 4588.0 but for short positionsI want to see the 4544.00 level take out which for now it seems impossible but, nothing is impossible in trading, my t.p for long position will be @4640.00, which is more of a swing trade.
$SPY Weekly Price TargetsBased off Price Action, the next 2 weeks will determine if we will see new ATH or fill previous Order Blocks (OB).
Currently, we are in an Uptrend with the continuation from Oct. 10th ~$360 Demand. We had a clean break through the OB created on the week of Aug. 22nd. Which lead us to fill the Apr. 4th OB.
We could potentially see a continuation to ATH or a pullback to the $437 FVG with a reversal towards ATH.
If we fail to break through the current OB or the previous ATH we could see a sell off leading to the closing of previous OB's on, Mar. 13th ~$386 & Oct. 10th ~360.
SPY is now BULLISH?| Geopolitical Events | 1h, D, 1W ChartIntroduction
Things are looking spooky after the constant rise of bond prices, with the 10-year yield hitting 5% this week, the highest level since 2007. We'll go over how these important patterns are playing out all over again. This is without a doubt a very scary time for the stock market, with rumors of a recession from earlier this year. Should we be worried? As we talked about last week, NYSE:LMT was a ticker we were observing as the Israel and Palestine conflict continued to see how it would affect prices, now we are looking at how the overall stock market is affected. Let's dive in.
*For a quick overview, please reach the end of the page for the analysis conclusion.
AMEX:SPY 1H Chart (Inverted)
FRVP: Oooo just look at how the Elliot wave hit the line perfectly on the FRVP, we're going to keep an eye out on any important volume areas and see where things consolidate and stay in place, which is what I'm predicting coming the next few weeks, for things to be horizontal. Usually in these areas, we see that they can play as a level of resistance so we'll see.
Elliot Waves: I believe we are now on an upward trajectory, after the (12345) we should of course according to Elliot wave theory, follow up with an (ABC). We can see when we bring indicators into the mix how this may be a likely scenario, but of course, there are still many other scenarios to consider., this is as close as I can get to predicting what happens next.
Fib Retracement: The retracement is there to see the likely spot of the (B) wave, this is just an estimate and may not hit perfectly but it's there just in case.
MACD: We are now showing bullish divergence on the MACD which is what we want to see in this case if we want the Elliot wave to play out.
RSI: After hitting oversold in September, then again later in October, there is a very high chance for upside in the market , especially after a long while of bearish behavior. Not only all that but we have just broken through the 60.00 level, which shows that we may be in a bullish move now. If you are wondering why I wrote still oversold it’s because at the time of making the chart I did not expect it to hit the 60.00 level just yet.
AMEX:SPY D Chart
Fib Retracement: AMEX:SPY Struggles to continue higher through retracement levels, although hope should not be lost, we are now entering what seems to be a consolidation period before either a big move down or big move up , all depends how everyone is feeling about the stock market, fed, bonds, inflation, etc. As long as 0.5 plays as some sort of support, we should be in a bull market
Moving Average: 200 D is just there to see historic price action and levels of support/ resistance, not much information I gathered on it, it's just there.
MACD: Looks like we're nearing the end of this short, no cross as of yet.
Stock RSI: You see it, we have a cross yet nothing to be excited about still have time for things to play out.
FRVP: Wow who could have guessed, the FRVP plays a support level. Let's see what happens in the coming days.
Elliot Waves: Do you spot the pattern? I sure do. We see similar historic behavior fold before our eyes. Back in 2021, we had a full Elliot wave pattern play out the same way it's doing now, but only smaller. Will this play out? From our indicators and trend analysis it seems likely.
RSI: Not sure about the Elliot waves? It's okay that's fair, tell you what, I put a possible play that could happen in the RSI that could help us see if this will play out appropriately.
AMEX:SPY 1W Chart
*Put the TVC:DXY to show how history has played out between the US dollar and stock market, obviously they are inverse of each other.
Conclusion
We are in a difficult situation with bonds, inflation, oil prices, and other worldly factors that can impact the market. But I have faith that we are just in a fear phase and it will soon pass. This is what I call a buy opportunity.
Please support me by boosting and following me on my other media platforms, if you have any questions please leave a comment as it helps the algorithm :)
10/31/23 Bullish Day- Outlook for WeekCME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY SP:SPX CME_MINI:ES2! CBOE:XSP
Closed my spreads at 100% today. Another successful day if you read some of my Minds on these symbols. The market is looking for higher prices for the rest of the week short term.
Daily targets: 420-422
See you soon traders.
$SPY Bearish to Bullish Reversal?A bearish to bullish parallel downtrend break is a technical analysis pattern that occurs when a security breaks out of a downtrend channel to the upside. This pattern is considered to be a bullish reversal signal, as it indicates that buyers are gaining control of the market and that the downtrend is likely to come to an end.
To identify a bearish to bullish parallel downtrend break, traders look for the following characteristics:
A downtrend channel is formed by connecting the lower highs and lower lows of a security's price action.
The security breaks out of the downtrend channel to the upside.
The breakout is accompanied by an increase in volume, which indicates that there is strong buying pressure behind the move.
Once a bearish to bullish parallel downtrend break has occurred, traders may enter long positions in anticipation of further upside momentum. Traders should also place stop-loss orders below the breakout point to limit their losses in case the security falls back into the downtrend channel.
Here is an example of a bearish to bullish parallel downtrend break:
As you can see in the chart, the security is in a downtrend channel when it breaks out to the upside. The breakout is accompanied by an increase in volume, which confirms that the breakout is legitimate.
After the breakout, the security continues to move higher, confirming that the downtrend has been reversed. Traders who entered long positions at the breakout would have been able to profit from the subsequent rally.
Conclusion
A bearish to bullish parallel downtrend break is a bullish reversal signal that can indicate that a downtrend is coming to an end. Traders can look for this pattern to identify potential trading opportunities. However, it is important to remember that no technical analysis pattern is foolproof, and traders should always use risk management measures to protect their capital.
S&P500: Key Support Level for SPY Bulls to DefendThe S&P 500 been gradually breaking downwards since peaking in July. AMEX:SPY has reached the bottom of this red parallel channel last week. This is a key support level that has been providing strong support, and I think SPY bulls need to defend this price level this week. The RSI is oversold so the conditions are good for a rebound here.
SPY Short Prediction - 10/15/2023Unqualified prediction: SPY looks to be rolling over on the 1hr with multiple historical zones of support and resistance overlapping in a concentrated range (specified in-chart.) This in a TA sense would indicate a potential fight between buyers and sellers for control of price action, but macroeconomic fundamentals and geopolitical concerns, as well as ER volatility make for turbulent waters with this amateur analyst biased towards the downside.