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Spylong

SPY: Support Becomes Resistance (Macro)SPY has reached the .618 Fib retrace level and we are definitely at a crossroads. If price break through this level and flips resistance into support, then the macro measured move on the monthly, puts price in the $700s. If resistance holds then we have a measured move to the $330 level, before hypothetically resuming this trend. If resistance holds and we resume our downtrend over the next few months than it is hard to say how things will play out from there. The upward channel could be considered broken and we form a new trend going forward. Although, another measured move down to the $330 level does seem to form a macro bullfrog on the SPY which is bullish. Given the warnings that the macro data has been flashing as far as manufacturing and china and consumer credit card debt and drop in savings accounts, etc. It is very likely resistance will hold and we continue downward temporarily from here. It is honestly a best case scenario because equities are fairly expensive right now.
AMEX:SPY
by Goontata84
1
$SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST)AMEX:SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST) Next Target $440.08 If you had invested $1,000 in AMEX:SPY on June 10, 2013, at a price of $164.80 per share, you would have been able to purchase 6.06 shares. As of June 6, 2023, the price of SPY was $428.03 per share. If you had held onto those shares and not reinvested the dividends, your investment would have grown to $28,997.22. This represents a total return of 190.06% over the 9.99 year period. SPY paid a total of $49.99 per share in dividends over this period of ten years. Therefore, if you had held onto those shares and not reinvested the dividends, you would have received a total of $302.94 in dividend payments. However, if you had reinvested all dividends, your investment would have grown to $31,289.39. This represents a total return of 212.78% over the 9.99 year period. This week is packed with news and events. The FOMC is the big one of the week, but we also have CPI, PPI, Bond Auctions, Oil Reserves (which may be important with the OPEC cut), and plenty of other big news. Any unexpected changes or hints about future interest rate decisions could significantly influence the stock market behavior due to their implications for rates, timing, and monetary printing. *Disclaimer* The information is purely for *entertainment* purposes, and is not meant to be, and does not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Do Your Own Due Diligence (DYODD)
AMEX:SPYLong
by VIN786
SPY S&P 500 Index ETF and the Debt Ceiling DealThe political climate is favorable for a small rally of SPY, the S&P 500 Index ETF, towards the next resistance level of $430. After several weeks of tense negotiations, President Joe Biden and House Republicans have reached an agreement in principle to address the debt limit and cap spending. The debt-ceiling deal is now finalized, and here are significant parts of the agreement: First, the agreement suspends our $31 Trillion debt ceiling until January 2025, providing some relief and avoiding immediate concerns. Additionally, the agreement ends the pause on student loan repayments, allowing borrowers to resume their payments. This decision aims to ensure the stability of the student loan system and address the long-term financial implications. Furthermore, the agreement includes stricter work requirements for low-income and older Americans who receive food stamps. These requirements are intended to encourage self-sufficiency and help ensure that federal aid benefits are effectively utilized. Regarding IRS funding, the agreement entails a $20 billion reduction from the initially proposed $80 billion budget. This reduction specifically targets the allocation meant to crack down on tax evasion by wealthy individuals and corporations. Moreover, the deal puts an end to the ongoing freeze on monthly student loan payments and interest. It also introduces restrictions on the President's ability to reintroduce such a freeze in the future. To avoid contentious debates until after the next presidential election, the agreement suspends the debt limit until January 2025. This decision provides a temporary relief from potential conflicts surrounding the debt limit. The agreement also implements new work conditions for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients, raising the age limit for work requirements to 54. This measure aims to promote workforce participation and enhance the effectiveness of federal aid programs. Overall, this comprehensive agreement addresses various aspects of the debt limit and spending caps, aiming to strike a balance between fiscal responsibility and supporting those in need. My overall outlook is still bearish and i think the small rally could easily turn into a bull trap. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
1
The inevitable collapseDXY looks to be at a reversal point, or is it? This is why I love looking at a ticker in relation to another by using the / symbol. The way it works is ( ticker youre interested in )/( in relation to another ticker ) . For this instance we will look at both DXY/SPY and SPY/DXY. Typically SPY and DXY do not move in correlation, in fact they move in the opposite directions. When the dollar is strong, stocks fall as more people invest in the dollar as opposed to stocks. In the contrary when more people are investing in stocks, there is less money being put into the dollar. First lets look at only the DXY chart. Here we are looking at the weekly chart of the dollar. Although we are still in a downtrend, with the 9,21 and 50 ema stacking to the downside, there seems to be the possibility of a double bottom occurring at a previous support level of 101. By looking just at this chart, the dollar looks primed for a reversal. The question is how strong of a reversal will it be? Next lets look at the DXY/SPY chart. This chart is a much different story and shows tremendous weakness in the dollar in comparison to stocks. We have a head and shoulders with the last reject off of the 200ma. The candles are following the downwards momentum along the ema with the continuing lows of the MACD and RSI. Last, lets look at SPY/DXY As SPY and the dollar are inversely correlated its no wonder that this chart is showing significant strength in SPY. We have an inverse head and shoulders with the 9,21, and 50 ema going upwards also followed with the upwards trajectory of MACD and RSI. If there is a break of the resistance line, I am even more than certain we are on our way to another bull run. I know the thought of a bull run sounds insane with so much talk about a recession but do you think the market wont be prepared for a massive short squeeze as everyone and their mothers have gone short in anticipation of a killer recession? Remember, the market never does what the masses want it to do. TLDR: DXY looks poised for a reversal but comparing DXY to SPY by looking at DXY/SPY and SPY/DXY shows significant weakness in the dollar in comparison to stocks. DXY and SPY are inversely correlated. All charts combined shows we may have a slight bounce in the dollar, but there is more downside still to come.
TVC:DXYShort
by MoRafi
Challenge my Elliot Wave Count looking for $406 $spy Posting this, because they're so many Elliott Wave Experts on Trading View. They always come to my posts to challenge my wave count, and it always goes in my favor. However, they never stick around when the trade goes in my favor, and worst they dont post any charts of their own when I challenge them.. So I'm doing an open invination for all $spy, $spx $es traders to post a chart w/ their wave analysis. I stand by my charts and analysis and I trust the money flow. I'm looking for $406 soon on $spy keeping it simple, we close above yesterday which is extremely bullish. We had a bullish ABCD pattern, which based in a cup/handle pattern w/ a bull flag .. I ran my Elliott Wave Count from the ABCD pattern to the cup/handle pattern. We're now at an Apex... Either The Bull Flag/handle pattern is incorrect of $spy Drops to $370-380 starting tomorrow... I'm following the Money, what are you doing. Lets see some charts, and I welcome feedback...
AMEX:SPYLong
by moneyflow_trader
23
S&P Short Term ATH?The sell off that started in December 2021 and January 2022 was thought of the "crash" that most logical analyst and economist are waiting for. It was illogical for markets not only recover the March 2020 sell off but set a new ATH during a year which saw the largest unemployment event also a pandemic and recession. The rally we know was Fed induced stimulus through QE corporate bond buying. The day the Fed announced tapering, rate hikes, and shrinking balance sheet is when the markets started selling. It wasn't ANY other reason except this. A market fueled by Easy Money will not continue to rally if the very things that fueled it are taken away. The rallies we have been witnessing are fueled by Corporate Buy Backs. In fact, according to Bank of America data, Retail Investors and Institutional Investors are still net sellers. This rally will be short lived. The economic data is still worse than expected and getting worse. BUT .. it seems that we will see a new ATH for the S&P500 before the actual crash happens. The Nasdaq should not make a new ATH, but the Dow has a great possibility it will. We could see a Double-Top followed by the crash or a new ATH. A conservative 35% fall would put the S&P in the low 3,000s.
AMEX:SPYLong
by WorldEconomics
5