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Broken head and shoulders neck line, extremely oversold. Just noting that the violence of yesterday and today seems more pronounced than August's sell off. We blew right through the gaps at $291.06 and $288.92. That in itself should tell you this should not be played with. This is the proverbial freight train with no brakes. There strictly aren't any buyers. BUT with that being said we're extremely oversold on every TF besides the daily, which leads me to believe we could see a short cover rally today, and possibly some more follow through to the $282/200MA level tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a backtest of the neckline/trendline at the $290 level. I've been in and out of this the past two days on /ES and have had a net short position in SPY since we got back up to $300. Watch for the non farm payrolls number on friday, but until then there's no brakes on this thing and the negative news everywhere seemingly is adding to the velocity. Watch for the bounce, it will come eventually. First target is the $274 May low, and second target around the $262 level. Good luck.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
05/10/19 Morning Notes-SPY PivotsMorning Notes: 05/10/19 Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Neutral/Bearish Hi Everyone, Futures are under some selling pressure this morning, but well off the lows we made yesterday. The bulls are trying to form some bullish divergences and I would stick with a hold rec here. The 2942 short was a great entry and let's just manage that position with stops. As Woody mentioned yesterday, we are not in the "Kill Zone" time period yet and the set up to lore everybody back into the shark infested waters, is to let them think the waters are safe by bouncing the spx back near or above the previous highs as we head into the hard downside time period. With that said, where will the markets find a low? That is hard to say, but if the bears push the spx below 2836, I think we could see 2814/2810/2797 come into play in the coming days. One may be asking-if those are the targets, why wouldn't I just short? From my view, I think the risk out-ways the reward from these levels. That may end up being wrong and we see the spx trading down near the 2722 short term target 2, but we could also see some type of double bottom and the bulls ramp up the indexes. If you want to just jump, I would use a break of 2836 to short and place a stop at 2873. Do you see what I mean by risk/reward not being there? That is a big spread for a scalp trade, but could end up working out. Just not for me, but may be worth it for some of you out there. I am more on the side of looking to scale out instead of in. If I see 2810, I would be more incline to take 1/3 of the position off and move the remaining position stops lower. That will lock in some profits and still have a position if this move lower goes viral. And this is why we only give pivots/short long and stops, everyone has a different trading style. But I am going to move my stop down to 2903 and if we see 2810-ish come into play, start scaling out of my position. The range SPX range for today is 2872 high and 2847 low.(gap numbers) A break of 2876 the spx should try for 2879/2898. A push below 2847 we could see 2836/2820. Have A Great Weekend!! G SPX CASH 60 minute technicals Stochastics: Oversold Divergences- No Divergences Resistance Levels: R1-2872 R2-2879 R3 2898 Support Levels: S1-2847 S2-2836 S3 2820 Trending Pivots: Lower If you like our post and would like to continue seeing them, please help us grow our network-Thanks You!! 1.) like our post with a thumbs up (each post) 2.) follow us-you will be alerted via email with each post we enter 3.) leave a comment (It could be as simple as Thanks) (each post)
AMEX:SPY
by sentimenttiming
[SPY Short to 240] The Bull isn't Dead he just Needs a BreakAhoy mates! From a long term oriented view the S&P seems to have confirmed the start of a downtrend with pretty significant selling volume . We have cleared the 14 EMA support and it looks like we are headed to test the 50 EMA that is currently sitting on 236.12 for SPY . The EMA is definitely trending near the 24% fib pullback line of 240, 2400 would give the S&P solid footing to continue a run or at least a small rally in 2019. The 236 – 240 range for the market will be vital, this is where we have a trendline (Dashed white line) that goes all the way back to 2009 with wicks down tapping this support in 2011 and 2016. This trendline marks the very bottom of the market to the breakdown in 2011 that crushed the 50 and 100 EMAs but found support at the 200 EMA , our second point of support in the longterm upwards trend. Again in 2016 the market faltered, finding support at the 50 EMA , another point of support for this trend. Currently that trendline sits below the 50 EMA , so if we break 240 and then 236, we could at least hope for a bounce on that trendline between 225 and 230. If SPY cruises past 2400 and doesn’t bounce in 2300 2250, it is more likely than not that we would test high 2000s for a 38% pullback to the 100 EMA . Now that’s worse case scenario. More likely is we have a full 24% back, maybe hit the 50 EMA and bounce up again before we retest that white trendline in mid 2019, early 2020. Another indicator I’m watching is RSI , in 2011 at around the 45 RSI mark we saw the S&P recover, in 2016 it bounced back around 48-49 RSI . We’re at an RSI of about 49.5 on the monthly right now, which means we could easily go as far as 240 before repeating 2011 as many are saying. I think we have a lot to look out for here in how bad this could get, the indicators really speak for themselves on this chart. Either way, I'm short to 240, then seeing where we go from there. **This is not advice to buy or sell, what you do with your money is your responsibility.** Happy trading
AMEX:SPYShort
by Captainsmugglebutt
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