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Powell's Power!As of recently we have been in a small bull run. Bulls have been pumping on bad news, being dumb and relentlessly rallying. This is normal for bulls though so what can we expect? Bulls gonna do what bulls gonna do! We are at a strong resistance/supply level however, the bulls have been very violent and are out for blood as they aim to plow through this resistance/supply zone. In a few days we get the new interest rate numbers and if the FED decides to pause the rate hike then the bulls will go crazy and pump spy even higher. A rate hike will most likely drag spy down a bit and put us into lower 400s or higher 390s but, lately bulls have been pumping on bad numbers so we cannot accurately determine their next move. The bulls are at the end of a tunnel and they see the light so they will not stop at any costs, join the rally or get stomped shorting. I'm not a bull or a bear but the trend is your friend, that is if you can spot it.
AMEX:SPY
by MuhWhipski
VIX Yearlong Trend Warns That SPY Could Turn BearVIX is the volatility index for the S&P 500. It works in an inverse correlation to SPY so when VIX goes up, SPY goes down. There has been a common zone that whenever VIX dips into it, it skyrockets. Just a couple weeks ago we dipped into that zone and we have experienced an average move of -15.5% on SPY whenever that happens. Its also good to take into consideration that we have another year long trend that is in place. SPY has well respected a resistance line that dates back to late last year. Although we have technically broken this trend line, I am a firm believer in Gann's theory of lost motion so I believe we still have a chance to reverse. The most important part of the VIX setup is that PRICE NEVER HAS A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE THAT PRICE AGAIN. We just have to wait until the closing on Monday to see if this trend gets broken. The economy is also an important thing the consider with this trade setup. I believe that the bear move is signicantly more likely because of the federal reserve's actions on inflation. They have confirmed that quantative easing will start AT MINIMUM 6 months from now. This means we still have more of the recession left in us. We just have to wait till the start of next week for this to play out. If we close below the start of this setup, I am going short on SPY.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BiggWigg
4
Time For Bears To Feast? $SPY Heading to $385 By Feb. 10th.It seems like it's following the same pattern as the past two rallies. If you look closely, each time it rallied, the volume was declining and same is happening with the current rally as well. The first rally hit the bottom trendline in 36 days, the second rally hit the bottom trendline in 18 days (in exactly half the amount of days it took the first one to touch the trendline) and if the algos are following similar pattern we should see $385 by second week of Feb. Close above $405 invalidates this probability for me.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ritubpant
SPY Bearish or moon shot?The spy is in a major consolidation on declining volume getting ready for a big move. In the mid term, it looks like we are in a rising wedge on declining volume testing major down trend resistance and upper pattern trend line resistance. I think interest rates on the 1st will be part of the catalysts to send it back down to 388 or 381. If we start closing above these green and blue major levels(around 405, things would get bullish really quickly and I would look for 435 next on a massive spike in buy volume. I am short term bearish however and possibly midterm term as well but I'm undecided
AMEX:SPYShort
by BTC-HONDA
VIX move on Friday while SPY continued higherThis could be a very telling sign for what to expect on Monday. While the SPY (and generally the market) continued to trade higher on Friday (1/20), the VIX hit a low early mid-day and then moved higher into afternoon trading. Another thing to remember is that Friday was the LEAPs options expiration that started over 2 years ago for that expiration. It is typical for markets to be a little volatile during that week of a major expiration, but doesn't really go anywhere; kinda like we saw this past week where we we made another weekly high on Tuesday then sold down pretty good Wednesday/Thursday and then on Friday ended the week with a bull retracement. Now that a major options expiration is done, wouldn't be surprised if we started to see a more directional move on the market and if the VIX action on the second half of the day on Friday is any tell, bearish could be the direction. Bar chart: SPY Orange line: VIX
AMEX:SPYShort
by Options_Trading
2
SPY has been declining since January 2022.The performance of the Spy (S&P 500) has been declining since January 2022. The angle of decline ranges from -60 to -57 degrees, on average taking 61 days to reach the bottom. Based on this trend, I anticipate that by February 10th, the Spy will be valued at around $350, though it's important to note that this is just a prediction and not a guarantee. If the Spy were to break out of this downward trend/channel resistance, all previous observations would no longer be valid.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ExploringSolitude
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX - Updated 011423Leading up to the December Inflation CPI Report that was released this last week (Thursday), markets (at a macro level) have been rallying into this last Friday — which also was coincidently the start of earnings season as banks such as J.P. Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), & others. Now that the Inflation (CPI) Report is out of the way & earnings season is full steam ahead, markets look to the next big event(s) which include the Federal Reserve February Interest Rate Decision coming our way on February 1st, 2023. That said, here's what is happening in the charts with the S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! as it relates to our "40-Bar Cycle" 📊: 📉 *CHART NOTES* 📈 As I mentioned above, we did break out of the sloppy trading/consolidation range that the S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! was kept in throughout the holidays, & into the new year. Now that we've broken out of that & reached back above the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA50 = Red Line) on the daily chart, SPY is sitting just below the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA200 = Green Line). Also note that we did close above the SMA200 ($397.21) to finish up the week at ($398.50) on SPY. Now that we are above this key level (on a daily close), question is will we re-test this level & drift higher into the February Federal Reserve Meeting? OR, are markets setting up for a further (or short-term) pull-back using the timing & levels included in the "40-Bar Cycle" 📊 ? Keep in mind too that we did get a positive MACD crossover (buy signal) on the daily chart, as featured below. However, looking at the charts (including 4-hour MACD) I would conclude that this is likely an invalid buy signal — based in-part on other factors including January Options Expiration (OpEx) next week, 'VIX Compression', & also Federal Reserve 'Net Liquidity', which is still "risk-off" on a macro level as the Federal Reserve looks to keep a lid on asset prices, & of course Inflation (CPI). Chart #1-2: SPY Consolidation Breakout (Daily, w/ & w/o Falling Wedge Pattern) Chart #3: SPY Consolidation Breakout (4-Hour) Chart #4: SPY Consolidation Breakout (1-Hour) Chart #5: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (Daily, note that we are now clearly above the 50SMA are converging on major resistance of the 2022 downtrend & the 200SMA ). Chart #6: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (4-Hour, note the 50SMA did not cross below the 200SMA) Chart #7: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (1-Hour, note the 50SMA vs. 200SMA buy-signal & upward regression channel) What are your predictions for the rest of January 23'? Camp A: We are short-term overbought & a pull-back is in order, before we re-test & break out of this $380-390-400 range on the back of better than expected earnings, less than hawkish Federal Reserve, & more "resilient" macro data. Camp B: We may continue to short-term rally, however market liquidity is still too strong & the Federal Reserve is likely to continue with .25% — in addition to maintaining their hawkish tone so that excess market liquidity does not run away from them with higher asset prices. Macro data will continue to be mixed, if not trend-downward, & earnings will start to come in softer than people expect as forward outlooks raise the red flags for investors. Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPY
by kylemusserco
2
The Fake Out Break OutQuick post to those of you who've been following some of my ideas. I had previously drawn the similarity between now and 2008 in terms of chart patterns, but what's playing out seems to be much more like 1968 and 2001. Notice the double tops in green before the crash both had, which closely resembles what we're headed for now. These were also the starts of boom bust cycles happening in sets of 2. With this in mind, I'm adjusting to the 2001 timeline. My new PT is $265 which would hypothetically be at the end of August.
SP:SPXShort
by PlayerNonZero
1
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateWith an impulse up formed at close from yesterday's 3877 low, the 3970 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. W3 should begin by retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3843-3808, for w1 of W3. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3667-3635-3622. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateSPX extended the double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at today's 3950 high. That 3950 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. Below 3875 will confirm the W2 termination point, which should lead to retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3835-3805, for w1 of W3. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3648-3622-3615. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
1
QQQ MACRO ANALYSIS / SUPPLY & DEMAND / SHORT / PREDICTIONDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis of QQQ. *IMPORTANT: Aside from SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS the main thing to consider is the distinct pattern we seem to have been following for the past 3 falls after rallies. Where PRICE ACTION seems to create this hook like formation before CAPITULATION takes place. POINTS: 1. QQQ exhibits a DOWNWARD TREND on the 16Hour Timeframe. 2. Deviation of 35 POINTS TOTAL JUSTIFIES SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT. 3. Estimation of Days for upcoming drop was taken by using a mean from last three rallies and falls of 76, 79 & 58 DAYS = 71 DAYS. 4. Depth of DROP was also estimated with a mean average that came out to roughly 25%. 5. MACD IS ALSO IN CONGRUENCE WITH CURRENT CHART PATTERNS & MACD LEVELS ARE CORRECTLY POSITIONED FOR MORE DOWNSIDE. BULLISH SCENARIO #1: We come to see a continuation of current channel & commit to sideways momentum above 260 eventually breaking past 295. BEARISH SCENARIO #2: If hook pattern is to expire reliable we can surely bet on enough downside that will send us below 260 and onto 225 as a final destination that can serve as a more probable MARKET BOTTOM. NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:SQQQ
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline Next WeekSPX completed a double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at Friday's 3906 high. That 3906 high marks the completion of W2 to set up the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. Below 3852 will greatly increase confidence that the W2 high will hold to immediately target 3819-3795, initially. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3622-3604-3570, respectively. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
1
MARKET BOTTOM PREDICTION!!! DXY & ES1! (MACRO ANALYSIS)DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO ANALYSIS of DXY. And what should only be taken as SPECULATION & as a POSSIBILITY since patterns tend to repeat themselves. The chart above includes an overlap of DXY & ES1! in an effort to observe their inverse & parallel relationship. POINTS: 1. DXY shows a COMMON DEVIATION of 10 POINTS justifying the placement for SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS. 2. A VERTICAL YELLOW LINE is indicative of a MARKET PEAK. 3. A VERTICAL GREEN LINE was placed after a VERTICAL YELLOW LINE to signify when MARKET BOTTOMED. *IMPORTANT:Between every MARKET TOP & every MARKET BOTTOM DXY FLUCTUATES a total of 20 POINTS BEFORE THE MARKET 5. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION to the recession of 2007 - 2009. After DXY saw its first 20 POINT FLUCTUATION DXY hit 80 and bounced back to 90 POINTS. 6. Moving onto RSI we can see that DXY COMMITS to its RSI TREND throughout a RECESSION which does in fact lead me to believe that current RSI levels for DXY will follow a Down Trend similar to what was seen from 2000 to 2003. SCENARIO: - With all this in mind we can speculate that DXY will CAPITULATE to 95 POINTS before seeing a bounce allowing current UPTREND CHANNEL for DXY to find some CONSOLIDATION. This will also allow RSI too COMPLETE a DOWNTREND SIMULTANEOUSLY. *PREDICTION: If DXY is to fall to 95 POINTS that would be the equivalent of ES1! falling too 3,600 OR SPY to 360* TVC:DXY CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY
TVC:DXYShort
by DGSTBROKERACC