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SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateWith an impulse up formed at close from yesterday's 3877 low, the 3970 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. W3 should begin by retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3843-3808, for w1 of W3. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3667-3635-3622. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateSPX extended the double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at today's 3950 high. That 3950 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. Below 3875 will confirm the W2 termination point, which should lead to retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3835-3805, for w1 of W3. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3648-3622-3615. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
1
QQQ MACRO ANALYSIS / SUPPLY & DEMAND / SHORT / PREDICTIONDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis of QQQ. *IMPORTANT: Aside from SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS the main thing to consider is the distinct pattern we seem to have been following for the past 3 falls after rallies. Where PRICE ACTION seems to create this hook like formation before CAPITULATION takes place. POINTS: 1. QQQ exhibits a DOWNWARD TREND on the 16Hour Timeframe. 2. Deviation of 35 POINTS TOTAL JUSTIFIES SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT. 3. Estimation of Days for upcoming drop was taken by using a mean from last three rallies and falls of 76, 79 & 58 DAYS = 71 DAYS. 4. Depth of DROP was also estimated with a mean average that came out to roughly 25%. 5. MACD IS ALSO IN CONGRUENCE WITH CURRENT CHART PATTERNS & MACD LEVELS ARE CORRECTLY POSITIONED FOR MORE DOWNSIDE. BULLISH SCENARIO #1: We come to see a continuation of current channel & commit to sideways momentum above 260 eventually breaking past 295. BEARISH SCENARIO #2: If hook pattern is to expire reliable we can surely bet on enough downside that will send us below 260 and onto 225 as a final destination that can serve as a more probable MARKET BOTTOM. NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:SQQQ
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline Next WeekSPX completed a double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at Friday's 3906 high. That 3906 high marks the completion of W2 to set up the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. Below 3852 will greatly increase confidence that the W2 high will hold to immediately target 3819-3795, initially. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3622-3604-3570, respectively. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
1
MARKET BOTTOM PREDICTION!!! DXY & ES1! (MACRO ANALYSIS)DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO ANALYSIS of DXY. And what should only be taken as SPECULATION & as a POSSIBILITY since patterns tend to repeat themselves. The chart above includes an overlap of DXY & ES1! in an effort to observe their inverse & parallel relationship. POINTS: 1. DXY shows a COMMON DEVIATION of 10 POINTS justifying the placement for SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS. 2. A VERTICAL YELLOW LINE is indicative of a MARKET PEAK. 3. A VERTICAL GREEN LINE was placed after a VERTICAL YELLOW LINE to signify when MARKET BOTTOMED. *IMPORTANT:Between every MARKET TOP & every MARKET BOTTOM DXY FLUCTUATES a total of 20 POINTS BEFORE THE MARKET 5. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION to the recession of 2007 - 2009. After DXY saw its first 20 POINT FLUCTUATION DXY hit 80 and bounced back to 90 POINTS. 6. Moving onto RSI we can see that DXY COMMITS to its RSI TREND throughout a RECESSION which does in fact lead me to believe that current RSI levels for DXY will follow a Down Trend similar to what was seen from 2000 to 2003. SCENARIO: - With all this in mind we can speculate that DXY will CAPITULATE to 95 POINTS before seeing a bounce allowing current UPTREND CHANNEL for DXY to find some CONSOLIDATION. This will also allow RSI too COMPLETE a DOWNTREND SIMULTANEOUSLY. *PREDICTION: If DXY is to fall to 95 POINTS that would be the equivalent of ES1! falling too 3,600 OR SPY to 360* TVC:DXY CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY
TVC:DXYShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
Dec Jobs Report Preview - SPY SPX ES1! C Wave Short - 010523 Wanted to quick share a SPY chart ahead of the December Jobs Data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning Friday, January 6th: UNEMPLOY USNFP Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) Unemployment Level (UNEMPLOY) Non Farm Payrolls (USNFP) Average Hourly Earnings YoY (USAHE) Participation Rate (USLFPR) Manufacturing Payrolls (USMP) Average Weekly Hours (USAWH) Looking at the 4-Hour Chart, looks like we have a C wave playing out. Also looks like the 4-Hour MACD is getting ready to roll over: MACRO NOTE: Good news (hot jobs) = Bad news (tighter Federal Reserve) aka "Higher for longer" SPY Daily Chart 📊 (C wave short) SPY 4-Hour Chart 📊 (C wave short) SPY 1-Hour Chart 📊 SPY 15-Minute Chart 📊 What do you think about this setup into the December Jobs Data tomorrow? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
6
S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market LowerToday, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’. I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short). Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑 Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!) Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE) Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO) Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE) Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX) 1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊 *2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’ Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’ *2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’ Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’ 2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…* Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’ What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
SP:SPXShort
by kylemusserco
1
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX Q - Updated 010323After a sloppy last few weeks of trading to wrap up the year-end 22', SPY closed right around the (Q4/22') SPX JPM J.P. Morgan Quarterly Collar sitting right at $3,830. Looking ahead to the month of January, we have lots of upcoming data including December Inflation CPI, Jobs Report(s)/Unemployment Data (UNRATE), Producer Price Index (PPIACO), Leading Economic Data such as the OECD Composite Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM), Upcoming Q4/22' Earnings Releases, etc., of which is seems markets are staying relatively "pinned" for the time being until this data starts hitting the markets & investors come back from the extended holiday season. Per our "40-Bar Cycle" chart, while I expect that this next down-leg in SPY SPX will likely play out as shown in the in the charts. However, do keep in mind that there are some seasonal tailwinds & also some tailwinds for markets regarding mid-term election cycles. Here is what history tells us about pre-presidential election mid-term seasonality: 🇺🇸🗳🗓 “Third year pre-presidential election is the strongest.” (Up Double Digits, Historically) Dow = 19.3% (Since 1949) Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 = 20% (Since 1949) SPY SPX ES1! Nasdaq = 29.3% (Since 1971) QQQ NQ1! Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycles Data Explained via Twitter Space 🔊: twitter.com SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Lowering, But High Inflation aka Stagflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into Q1/23', as mid-term election/pre-presidential cycle seasonality kicks in & also as the economy proves more "strong" than many are discounting (Peak Inflation + Light Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED via Pending 'Pause' + Nominal Earnings "Resiliency"). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPY
by kylemusserco
3
Bearish Continuation for the SPYIt was subtle but it happened. Lower high for the SPY with a higher high on the RSI. I project a breakout of the bottom end of this range next week. Bearish divergence continuation to kick off the new year? As mentioned in previous posts, it is perfectly fine to hold some trades to the upside, but I do not recommend going into the new year without a bias to the short side. More interest rate increases, negative economic data and slowing of the global economy incoming. I put a link below that helps traders understand the idea of a bearish divergence. Hope this helps and hope you all have a very great new year. AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPYShort
by D1Finance
ROTATION FROM 'GROWTH' TO 'DEFENSIVE' OVER LAST 10 DAYSCHART DISPLAYS LAST 30 DAYS Utilities ($XLU) outperforming the broader market as represented by ($SPY) and growth oriented, tech based, sub-sector ($XLK) over the last 30 days. This has a correlation with an increased 'potential' for instances of heightened, near term (2 to 4 weeks) market volatility. During the recent selloff we can see that the 'bids' did not push the broader market as represented by ($SPY) or the S&P 500 tech sector ($XLK) back over its pre-selloff top. On the other hand, the market did buy the utilities (XLU) back up over its respective, pre-selloff top. (see yellow horizontal lines) So utilities stay bid while tech and the broader market begin to falter. In my opinion this is what a rotation out of 'growth' ($XLK) from the last 6 weeks and into 'defensives'($XLU) looks like from a price structure perspective. I would interpret this as an expression of 'risk off' market sentiment going into 2023. (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
AMEX:XLK
by The_Firewalker
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 122322With a key level of the $JPM Quarterly Options Collar sitting at $3,855 on SPX ES1!, markets seemed to have been "pinned" for the time being as market makers position for the close of business ahead of the Christmas holiday. Question now is are the bulls hopes of a Santa Rally into year-end wishful thinking? 🎅 🎄 Or, we see another attempt at a short-term relief rally within what is likely to be a continuation of the downward "40-Bar Cycle" that is projected to continue into the first few weeks of 23'? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED + Earnings "Resiliency"). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
Possible SPY Long opportunity from smart money Please read the chart text. Furthermore we are in a box that has proved there are lots of bulls at this area hence the previous rally at this zone. Could this be the Santa rally everyone is talking about to save spy? We can hope for smart money to re-enter longs here to boost spy back up towards the top of this range otherwise, I fear spy may drop slowly into 360's or lower. There is also a chance that spy just trends sideways and ranges more into the new year. What do you guys think is brewing?
AMEX:SPY
by MuhWhipski