Spy Short idea. Target 404-411 entry Nov 21-Dec 7th
Target 300-330 Jan 21-Feb 14th
See linked Idea for more info
Spyshort
SPY Rejection Zone Before Hammer Time, New LowsBullish price action with 7.7% inflation report, the thing is it's not close to 2%. We have much more to go.
Using key levels, 372, 385, 404, 412.5, drawing a range where there may be rejection.
From the downward resistance line, lot of confluence at 411. Drawing line from the tops of the past year.
From this level would be targeting 300-330 range. Aiming for bottom around late janurary- mid feburary.
Expecting to see this high around Nov21st-December 7rd.
Idea is to have funds allocated for short, scaling in 20% of position around 398, 30% around 404, and 50% around 408-411
See linked Idea for more info
SPY Analysis Nothing meaningful needed, this is what I feel the market is telling us. Am I going to be right? Maybe but that's trading and why we trade our own plans.
Analysis of the S&P 500 index: The big game begins…Analysis of the spx 500 index 11/09/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index.
And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day.
What's on the market now:
Today the index is trading at the level of 3828. Yesterday the market continued moving towards the level of 3820-3845, which I wrote about earlier. However, at the moment, I see all the signals for a market reversal and its movement to the level of 3440. Like yesterday, today a lot will be decided by the election result, but at the moment there were already sales in Europe and Asia. The market reacts negatively to the elections, as I expected. Large and medium-sized hedge funds are shrinking their portfolios, increasing volatility. However, such actions may provoke a sell-off in order to diversify risks for clients. What is likely to cause a sharp movement to the level of 3440 and below.
What I'm looking forward to today:
Today I expect the index to move to 3750, however, if the fall accelerates, then all long positions should be closed. There is also a possibility of a sharp movement of the market to the level of 3660.
Here are my trading recommendations for today.
What I recommend
If you want to go short:
Short positions are possible from the level of 3830-3850. But you can also try to open a position in the market, limit your losses.
If you want to go long:
Long positions are prohibited, the market is likely to fall sharply to the level of 3440.
If you are out of the market:
Today, as yesterday, long positions are prohibited, limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3830-3875, limit your losses.
But if you see anomalous behavior in the market, like a sharp rise, then it is better to stand aside, although the potential for growth to the level of 3970-4050 remains, but at the moment such an event is unlikely.
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation.
See you next time!
Bye!
S&P 500: At the edge… Prepare for sudden movements.Analysis of the spx 500 index 11/08/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index.
And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day.
What's on the market now:
Today the index is trading at the level of 3806. Yesterday, as I expected, the index kept its movement to the zone 3820-3045, I wrote about this earlier. However, at the moment, a situation has formed on the market in which the market may fall sharply to the level of 3440. Today, a lot will depend on the results of the US elections, but at the moment there is a lot of free money on the market that can be thrown into the market, and this could happen today. Which is likely to cause the market to ideally crash to 3440 and below.
What I'm looking forward to today:
Today at the opening, I expect the index to try to rise to the level of 3820-3845. However, if there are large volumes on the market, then there is a possibility of a sharp movement of the market to the level 3440, so long positions are prohibited.
Here are my trading recommendations for today.
What I recommend
If you want to go short:
Short positions are possible from the 3820-3845 level, try to sell on the market reversal but limit your losses.
If you want to go long:
Long positions are prohibited, limit your losses.
If you are out of the market:
Long positions are prohibited, limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3810-3845, limit your losses. But if you see anomalous behavior in the market, like a sharp rise, then it is better to stand aside, although the potential for growth to the level of 3970-4050 remains, but at the moment such an event is unlikely.
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index . Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation.
See you next time!
Bye!
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to my and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation.
See you nLong positions are possible from the level of 3750, but it is risky. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3970, limit your losses.
ext time!
Bye!
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price Target After The Midterm ElectionsThe Price Target for the Midterm Elections was perfectly reached, as you can see from the preview chart:
I think there is still some juice left for this week, full of enthusiasm and promises of a soft landing from politicians.
Then, by the end if the year, we will see Jamie Dimon`s "economic hurricane coming our way!"
My price target for SPY S&P 500 ETF is the pre-pandemic level of $338.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$DWAC BullishDWAC is set to rip next week. Noticed interesting volume that tells me someone has been buying heavy, twitter drama, red wave talks incoming, elections, and price held over the IPO price. Pretty stellar set up. Not going to chase but if I see a pullback I thinks its going to pay big time.
SPX500 Index Crash - 2022-2024Three attempts at pulling back:
Pullback One: Clearly, the strongest positive angled pullback of the three. Short-lived and rejected fully met. Pullback One, can be construed as the second weakest pullback, if you take into consideration how quickly it came, and went. Upon failure, strong downside ensued. Lower-Lows in Down Trend.
Pullback Two: Calm, Collected, Strong Pullback. The strongest of the three by far. She went boys. She sure did. In this moment, I don't know why she failed. The fact remains. Strong Pullback Two was eviscerated. Upon failure, strong downside ensued. Lower-Lows in Down Trend.
Pullback Three, was absolutely slapped off her bar stool by the way FOMC Meeting candles printed on the chart. Followed up, by currently, an absolute horror show of an attempted recovery, in coordination with some suspicious early morning futures activity and the ensuing intraday. Was not a pretty sight.
My Official opinion is:
SPY500 is an absolute dumpster fire. Please take caution with your investments and invest wisely or take profit wisely. However you do so, I believe that the SPY500 is going to at least 2700 if not 2500 if not 2275.
Thank you,
Mr. Storm
DUMPSTER FIRE.
SPY beginning its descent to 351No change. Still expecting the SPY to fall to 351 from this rising wedge on declining. The break down just started as we saw a massive spike in sell volume after crossing out of the patttern. THis willl have negative effects on crypto
SPY 52 WEEK LOW INCOMING?With the fed set to continue raising rates through 2022 I do not see a bottom in sight. Presented above I map out the two most possible scenarios in my opinion. The December fed meeting is the most important meeting coming post midterms. The November meeting this week will answer a few short term questions but the real question is do we begin slowing in December?
If I had to answer the question above today the answer would be no! Based off the data we have received this month inflation is not slowing and unemployment is still low. The dollar has began to cool off, bonds & equities are getting some relief which provides more liquidity to the downside. The next week may become volatile or even a bit ranged bound as we wait on new data but I believe the end story is all the same.
Spy breaking above the bear trend and 200ma invalidates my thesis. Fed rate slow also invalidates my thesis.
SPY SHORT, Reoccurring Pennant like SEPT 19AMEX:SPY
Pennant formation at the borderline resistance.
Resistance at previous level ~388.
Resistance under the broadening of a triangle (white linings).
False breakout pennant, loss of momentum (blue flags).
Similar pennant formed previously on 9/12/22.
Then, next day it drop about $18/-6.3% down.
Lack of volume and breakout tried but failed.
Tomorrow FOMC speaks, market uncertainties.
Also, Moderna Earnings this week 10/3 Thursday.
Conclusion, possible minor pullback retracements to previous supports.
Not a financial advisor nor a pro/expert trader.
Just for educational purposes.
SPY daily bearish hammer end of wave 2 wave C correctionOrder SELL SPY ARCA Stop 380.60 LMT 380.60 will be automatically canceled at 20230401 01:00:00 EST
SPY daily bearish hammer end of wave 2 wave C correction
SPY S&P 500 ETF Bullish Ahead of Midterm ElectionsWasn`t it strange to see META losing 25% and AMZN 20% in one week, yet the SPX S&P 500 still being bullish?! :)
I told you in the previews chart, because of the Midterm Elections:
In every country is the same, politicians in power try to keep the markets optimistic ahead of elections to get more votes, because the economy is doing great thanks to them.
I wouldn`t be surprised to see the SPY S&P 500 ETF touch the psychological price of $400 days before the vote, while televisions talk about a potential reversal.
So we still have 8 days of unexpected bullish market while the earnings of the companies reporting are lower.
And don`t get frustrated to see that this was another bear market rally and the SPY will touch the $338 Pre-Lockdown level before Christmas.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SPY Analysis (Mid-to-Late October)Below is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for the period of mid-to-late October 2022.
Weekly Expected Move
There is a 68% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range.
High price: 375.64
Low price: 349.95
There is a 95% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range.
High price: 388.48
Low price: 337.10
For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price within the current week. It is calculated using the implied volatility from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior week but before the market opens for the current week. For more information on how to calculate these values, please see the link at the bottom of this post.
Volatility & Seasonality
From a seasonality perspective, October usually opens relatively strong and can continue to be strong until about the middle of the month, then prices typically decline toward the end of the month. See the chart below.
There may be increased volatility if the CPI report that comes out before the market opens on Thursday, October 13th surprises again to the upside. My inflation predictors show that inflation moderated in September (year-over-year) and that the inflation figure will be less than the August figure.
However, there are early signs that inflation (particularly commodity price inflation) may not decline at the level needed for central banks to pivot away from tightening for some time to come. Until commodity prices stop accelerating higher, there cannot reasonably be a Fed Pivot. If the Fed were to pivot while commodities price inflation was accelerating it could lead to a hyperinflationary outcome.
The recent volatility spike put the VIX term structure into partial backwardation. VIX term structure backwardation simply means that the market is pricing in decreasing volatility in the future. The VIX term structure usually goes into complete backwardation at major stock market bottoms, as this structure reflects the type of capitulation that all major stock market bottoms typically exhibit.
In late September, the VIX broke the downward-sloping trendline. It's quite possible that there will be a capitulation event in mid- or late-October that causes the VIX to rise back above this downward-sloping trendline and which causes the VIX term structure to go into complete backwardation.
If such a capitulation event occurs then it will likely mark the bottom for 2022.
Fibonacci Levels
Price continues to cluster around the 3rd Fibonacci spiral that I discussed in my prior posts (see links to related ideas below).
It is my prediction that a capitulation event will form a lower wick below this line on the yearly candle but that prices will tend to revert back around this level by the year's end such that the yearly candle appears to sit on this line. See below for an illustration.
If there is a major capitulation event whereby volatility breaks out and prices break down, I would expect major buyers to come in around the 0.5 level (shown below). The 0.618 level is another support level to watch.
Regression Channel
Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert back (or regress) to its mean for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us identify which trend is governing price action. These channels can give insight into trend reversals.
Since mid-August, the regression channel on the 1-hour chart has been governing price action (as inferred by such a high Pearson score). Please see below.
You can see below that on Friday (October 7th), the price bounced off the mean (red line).
Unless we get a highly favorable CPI report this week, I would expect that this channel could continue to govern price action all the way until the start of November.
Here's a general sense of what that could look like. Please see below.
Weekly Chart
In my last SPY Analysis, I noted that my indicators on the weekly chart were suggesting that we could drop back below 388. That definitely happened in the midst of the end-of-September volatility.
This time I am seeing something interesting on the 2-week chart...
I noticed that the Madrid Ribbon has turned completely red twice.
This is very rare in S&P 500 history. To put into perspective how rare this is, there have been recessions where not even this occurs. Therefore, in this regard, the extent and duration of stock market declines that we have already seen have been worse than some past recessions. Unfortunately, though, when this signal presents itself, there is usually more pain ahead. We are in a precarious circumstance with price now below the entire ribbon.
Another chart that has me concerned about a potential capitulation event is the 2-day chart for the tech short derivative chart (SQQQ). As many of you well know, when tech stocks fall in price, the price of SQQQ goes up.
As the chart above shows, the moving averages on the 2-day chart are nearing a complete crossover.
This has never happened before in SQQQ's 12-year history.
While only a possibility, this could set the stage for a capitulation event whereby Nasdaq 100 ( QQQ) stocks nosedive back down to their pre-pandemic highs.
Without getting too deep into the analysis, this could also mean that as a ratio to the money supply, the Nasdaq 100 goes all the way back to the March 2020 bottom.
In future posts, I'll discuss more about the money supply and why it can be used in this manner.
Monthly Chart
In terms of the monthly chart, as noted above, I do not see the S&P 500 realistically getting much below the 0.5 level in the chart below without some kind of a major price recovery.
While anything can happen, if the Fed pivots before the Fed Funds rate has risen above the rate at which commodity prices are inflating, I do believe we can end up in a difficult situation with high inflation again in the future.
Yearly Chart
When put into the perspective of the entire history of the stock market (going back in 1871), look how high the stock market is currently valued relative to its mean and past price action.
In terms of the post-Great Recession bull run, we are hanging on by our fingertips. See below.
Below is a closer view.
At the close of 2021, the stock market was so overbought (in terms of the Shiller PE ratio) that despite nearly 10 months of selling, stock valuation is still nearly as high as the peak before the Great Depression.
The stock market is extremely overvalued because of monetary easing. Monetary easing is a central bank experiment that began in recent decades and was normalized in the years following the Great Recession. The monetary easing experiment has created tremendous reliance on its continuity.
Only time will tell how the experiment ends...
Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your constructive thoughts. Thank you.
If you'd like to plot the weekly and daily expected moves for SPY on your chart, try the indicator "SPY Expected Move by VIX", which is calculated from the VIX rather than from the implied volatility of the options chain. The expected moves that I've posted above were manually calculated by me using SPY options chain data. If you'd like to learn how to calculate the weekly expected move yourself, this video can help: www.youtube.com
$SPY: Could swing either wayHere's what I see. I was set on things being bearish but now looking at it again, I do see a bit of a rally before it follows the downtrend again. Let me know what you guys think and please share your analysis as well. Thanks!
I come from the futureMarkets will tank early 2023, I could care less about going in full description for you blokes but believe me or not it is the inevitable... so long 13 year bull run...
SPX 500 above 200 weekly MA After a drop of 28% from the peak, SPX has bounced up after touching the 200 weekly moving average.
It does not indicate a trend change but rather seems like a bull trap in the overall bear market.
FED is meeting between 1-2 November and volatility is expected.
If you are entering longs, protect your profits with tight stop loss.
Things can turn down again very soon.
SPY - Expecting Local GrowthCorrectional movement failed to break the local support, we expect resumption of buying to resistance.
If you like the idea, mark it. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and make yourself and your loved ones happy.
what is apy gonna do?380 i spy next target the question is will it hold or drop before hitting 377 over 377 can see 380 fllow to 386 but it fails to hold uner 3777-380 will see 370 -368-366 seeing 350\
under 372 - 367.73 - 366.41 (rejection point watch for rebound)following 362-361
over 374 -376 following 380 (big rejection point) needs over 380 to go bullish
$SPY - A Simple Plan - All You Need is PatienceSo here's what I am thinking. I do think we will trend higher and hit the $380 area and head back down. Thinking we hit $380 by the end of October and with FOMC we break the support at the bottom and head straight down.
respect the trend been a while since last plan that i had to cancel when trying to break daily resistance failed. since then i have noticed two more trends we seem to be in.
the trend line in blue is the shorter term trend keeping eye on and past few day we failed to break above downtrend after failing to break daily resistance. i have short term target 0f 358 pivot. possible lower but will check price action once we reach this level. im expecting to touch bottom of trend with target of 338 next daily support.
i know its alot of bullish ppl out thier right now so also watching for upside. if we manage to get over daily 375 resistance and break the 380 (2008/covid high trend line) i will consider that extremely bullish and will try run with first plan. chances of that happening is small in my book but anything possible
with all the earning the next few weeks plus election and cpi week 1 in november i will be trading with extreme caution
happy trading everyone
spy going red 380 i spy next target the question is will it hold or drop before hitting 377 over 377 can see 380 fllow to 386 but it fails to hold uner 3777-380 will see 370 -368-366 seeing 350\
