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Spyshort

Now's Our Time Bears!Mid July I posted my trade idea - and so far it's playing out to a T. A lot of my investor friends have been talking to me about how the market makes no sense and does the opposite of what "SHOULD" be expected. A slowing economy, war, inflation, rising interest rates, etc etc. Even our earnings season was bearish to slightly bullish for the most part. Although I'm preaching to the choir, this is why it's so important to watch the charts and have a fundamental understanding that everything works in waves, never a single direction. I'll also say that with our current fed giving us a clear path for what they plan to do in the future, the market OVER CORRECTS to price in the future. The market isn't efficient however, and that's how mediocre/slightly good news can send it skyrocketing the way it has the past 2 months. Anyway to the continued trade idea. Today was important because it solidified investors lack of confidence in the market. We should be on the lookout for the CPI and Jobs report coming soon, along with another fed rate decision. I'll also say I don't know what will cause the crash. I think it's pretty much impossible to call, but you don't need to know what it is, just that it'll eventually break. Still using 2000 and 2007 as the basis for a market crash, I've plotted out their remaining moves. Green is 2000 and Yellow is 2007. These moves include the percentage draw down for each "wave" along with the same exact time it took to get there. I expect a drawn down from now until October to around $365 which could rebound or continue falling into December. If there's no follow through crash February 2023, we might see a short lived rally that'll die June 2023. As mentioned in my previous post I have January SPY puts that are currently in the green and doubled down on todays confirmation.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PlayerNonZero
5
$SPY Can we go higher?Hi Traders - It's been a while since my last post and I figured I share this one with you guys. In the chart, I lay out the two most likely scenarios on each side of the trade. Personally, I believe there will be upward pressure here, because of the sheer amount of upside. However , we will have to see the overnight price action and pre-market before making an accurate judgement on which way we will move. Sincerely, Mike (UPRIGHT Trading) **PLEASE NOTE: the indicators at the bottom are for analysis**
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
5
Have we locked in bottoms? Time for rip? Maybe notCheck out this buy zone I set up back in July, we bounced off the June 17th bottom, and just accelerated through the demand zone, but right before that is a supply zone (not pictured), also look at the volume difference from June to now. This push to the upside is weak, liquidity is draining out of the market, as soon as bad news comes, and it will, there will be hell to pay. Perhaps a more cynical way of looking at this might be that this is a pump before a dump This is a bear market, without good news, and a sustained rally the pumps are a false floor and good place to buy puts, or at least that's the plan for me
AMEX:SPYShort
by Definitelynotgoodatthis
SPY S&P 500 ETF Double Bottom Technical ReboundIf you haven`t shorted the SPY Head and Shoulders Pattern: Then you should know that a technical rebound refers to a recovery from a prior period of losses when technical signals indicate that the move was oversold. In this case, the Relative Strength Index momentum indicator of SPY S&P 500 ETF is at 24.05 on a Double Bottom Reversal Chart Pattern. A double bottom is a reversal chart pattern in technical analysis that describes a change in trend. Even though i am overall bearish on the economy, buying a strong financial instrument when the RSI is below 30, would make a case for a potential short term reversal. My ultimate price target is $338, but for now i am bullish. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
1
SPY Puts should cash when the market opens.Ill start being more straight to the point. In my previous post I stated that the 370 level was a pivotal one. and you have seen for yourself time after time that it has been rejecting it all week. IDK why trading view is hiding my last post. Ive seen many profiles on here that should be deleted. hopefully this was the last time. Now today is Thursday and we have one more day to close off the week and the month. No one really likes September tbh for its historical bearishness. But what I do like is the buying opportunity it presents for my portfolio. Please watch the retest of the support off 363.09 and 360.99 Here's my entries for SPY today CaLLS 367.64. Puts 366.15
AMEX:SPYShort
by Courtneyd
$SPY $SPX - #SPY #SPX Where is the S & P 500 Index headed next?On Friday September 23rd, the FED held a very important meeting to discuss the current issues that we are facing economically, while most of the comments were bleak, there were a few clues that our supply chain could finally see a light at the end of the tunnel by next year (not without heartache of course). The largest issue we are facing is supply chain & employment retention issues. The supply chain will be slowly improving now until the end of the year. If you are following my social media page, I've stated that shipping prices will see a decline beginning this week (shipping is a large part of our supply chain issues). The second large issue is understaffed production. I believe this will adjust as more corporations begin laying off workers, the job market will tighten, making entry level positions more competitive. Real Estate will get slaughtered into the New year to make housing more affordable, but keep in mind we do have a shortage in homes (considering how many millennial/gen Xers are still living with their mamas). New home builders cannot profit with high inflation, high interest loans and a declining real estate market. The will begin to pay off debts first to avoid the new high rates and then buy back single family homes to flip for profits and/or buy back their own beaten down stocks. As FED pivots, homes will get purchased again so not at all am I expecting a 2008 scenario. When the FED decides to pivot, the best place to hold cash will be BITCOIN, GOLD, SILVER, STOCKS, (possibly real estate if you have cash on hand) ect and at that time $DXY will drop and the Dollar will no longer be the best store of value. I listened to the entire 2+ hours of the FED meeting and after analyzing the current data and Jerome Powell's hawkish nature, I'm NOT expecting a big bounce in the S&P 500 Index anytime soon. The shorts are piling in and for good reason because we will definitely drop down and make a fresh low this year. A pivot in our current sentiment isn't happening next month, the bounce going into October will be much weaker than the previous one we just had, maybe just to squeeze enough shorts out of existence before actually making the plunge into the final accumulation pattern. I will keep updating my thoughts as more data is printed but for now this is an estimate of how I see the price action flowing on The S & P 500 Index. Happy Sunday!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ChaldeaCode
2
Bear Market Rally TeeteringMarket participants are wondering right now if we are merely in a bear market rally or if this is the beginning of a new long-term bull run. I thought I would write a post to share my thoughts. First, the chart above: This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with Fibonacci levels applied. I drew Fibonacci levels from the January high to the June low to identify areas where the price of SPY may be resisted or reverse back downward. The chart is adjusted for dividends and is based on a log scale. I also placed arrows where Fibonacci levels may have acted either as support (up arrows) or resistance (down arrows). While anything can happen and it would be foolish to make a call for certain, I do genuinely believe the following: Regardless of how high the S&P 500 rallies, at some point in the future we will likely see the June bottom again. This is because the June bottom is far more important than most people realize, as I will explain below. Back on June 17th, the exact day of the bottom, I noted that SPY was likely bottoming. My charting analysis told me we were likely in the lower wick formation of the monthly candle at the time, so I knew a bottom was imminent. See the below post. In early July, I also explained that the bottom was significant. See the below post. We are currently sitting on a major level in stock market history. See the below chart. The chart above is a yearly chart of the entire 150 years of SPX price data that Trading View provides. When one analyzes the chart as if it were a shorter timeframe chart, one will see that we are teetering right on the third Fibonacci extension of the Great Depression high. That is to say, when one draws Fibonacci lines from the lowest price ever for the SPX up to the Great Depression peak and then applies Fibonacci extensions, one will see that the June bottom was precisely on the third extension of the Great Depression. (Some call it a Fibonacci extension, some refer to it as a Fibonacci Spiral, and others refer to it as a Golden Spiral. Regardless, it is a very important level.) For more information about the math and theory behind it, you check out this Wikipedia article on the Golden Spiral: en.wikipedia.org These spirals occur at points in time when markets can undergo the most dramatic declines. This occurs mathematically in the form of price unraveling to a previous Fibonacci level. In fact, very few people know that Black Monday (the 1987 Stock Market crash) occurred at the second extension of the Great Depression peak. Computers and smart money were detecting this Fibonacci level and likely led the initial phase of the sell-off, which spiraled into a panic sell-off. The above monthly chart from 1987 shows that price tried to surpass the second Fibonacci extension but failed to close above it and was repelled back down. Fast forward to the present time, the Fed Reserve's limitless quantitative easing propelled us abruptly above the third Fibonacci extension in the beginning of 2021. This important Fibonacci level actually held as support for both the 2021 low and the 2022 low (so far). See the charts below which show that the June bottom landed precisely on the 3rd Fibonacci extension. On a yearly chart, (although the yearly candle has not been completed yet), you can see that we are sitting precariously on the 3rd Fibonacci extension with a bearish hammer. This is quite concerning because it is occurring while we are on the verge of a significant recession. While I cannot explain all the reasons why I believe a significant recession is underway in this post, I have links to my prior posts explaining all the chart findings that lead me to this conclusion. You can refer to these links below. I find it concerning that so many market participants are buying into a rally while the yield curve is so inverted. Indeed, the yield curve is the most inverted it has ever been since data became available in the 1980s (as measured by a 10Y/2Y ratio). See my post below. Here's why I believe this rally is occurring. This rally was caused by two main types of market participants: Marginally informed market participants who think that inflation has peaked. While inflation very likely did peak locally, there are worrying charts that suggest elevated inflation will be persistent. Some commodities have broken out on their yearly charts, which can provide a tailwind for higher prices for years to come. So far there is no evidence in the charts that inflation is dropping precipitously enough to warrant a sudden pivot to easing by the Fed. I believe these marginally informed market participants may get whipsawed if inflation surprises back to the upside in the months or years ahead. Shorts are getting squeezed. There were plenty of signs in June that the markets needed to rally back up, no matter how bearish the long-term outlook. Many shorts missed these signs or fell victim to smart money misleading them. (Recall that right before the June low, Jamie Dimon warned that a hurricane was coming. Although this is actually true, his timing was likely not coincidental. Smart money loves to trap shorts right at the bottom and make fear-inciting statements when fear is already extreme. Basically, it's squeezing every penny out of uninformed market participants. Sadly, right at the January high Jamie Dimon said the opposite: Recall that in January 2022 he said that he sees the strongest growth in a decade . Again, trying to trap longs at the very top to squeeze every penny out of them. Never trust statements from anyone, unless they can back it up with a chart!). So we have been seeing shorts getting squeezed since June and this short squeeze has propelled the stock market higher at an unnatural and unwarranted rate. Technical reasons that I remain neutral with a bearish bias include: The weekly stochastic RSI is over-extended to the upside and ready to oscillate back down. While it's possible that price can continue higher or consolidate, despite a declining stochastic RSI, the risk-to-reward does not support rushing into long positions at this point in time. The weekly candle is still within the Ichimoku Cloud which can act as resistance. See chart below Other reasons that I remain neutral with a bearish bias: From late August through mid- to late-October stock market returns have historically remained muted or have declined. While some can argue that the VIX has broken down its trend line, I remain cautious whenever the VIX and the VVIX are so suppressed to the downside going in the August to October timeframe. This is typically a volatile part of the year. Few people noticed that last week, the weekly RSI of the VIX was the lowest in nearly a decade. This does not make any sense. Being a gauge of fear, I find it hard to believe that the fear among market participants last week was the lowest in nearly a decade (from a weekly RSI perspective). I believe that the VIX has been artificially low lately, and although I can only speculate why, I know one thing for certain: the risk-to-reward does not support entering a whole bunch of long positions at this time. Do not get caught up in the FOMO. The FED is only now just beginning to accelerate the roll-off of assets from its balance sheet. It's hard to imagine this action facilitating a bull run that breezes past new all-time highs. The value of the FED's assets is equal to a very sizable percentage of the total stock market capitalization. Rolling these assets off its balance sheet will de-leverage risk assets. Market participants buying into a rally as the Fed accelerates balance sheet roll-off is essentially fighting the Fed in my opinion. The Fed has only rolled off about 1% of its balance and we had one of the worst first 6 months of the year in stock market history. Finally, as noted above the yield curve has inverted. This means we are in a late-cycle rally. So if I am to add any longs, it will be in sectors that do well in the late cycle: Utilities, Telecom, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples. With that said, I will play very defensively and use fairly tight stops since many risk assets are still historically overvalued and overbought. I will look for strong bullish setups in only these sectors. I also see U.S. Treasuries as attractive if the Eurodollar Futures and the terminal rate remains steady, and assuming the Fed does not get crazy with its balance sheet roll-off. In summary, virtually all of the charts I have seen show that there will likely be a significant recession in the coming year(s). Be skeptical of strong rallies while the yield curve is inverted. Trade safe, never trade on emotion, and have a plan before you enter into a trade. Good luck with your trading!
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
47
SPY etf S&P 500 Price per Earnings still high: 18.66 ! If you haven`t bought puts ahead of the FOMC meeting: Then you should know that the P/E Ratio of the S&P 500 even after last Friday's sell-off is 18.66. Now considering that the median value is 14.90, i would say that a fair price for the S&P would the the pre-pandemic level of $3380, and respectively, for its etf SPY, $338. We might see a technical bounce here, due to the fact that the S&P is oversold and usually at this level is a buy opportunity, but short lived, to the next resistance of $374. Two months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
5
SPX potential breakdown and market correction*If* SPX were to move into a correction (and I think that is a big if), one possible pattern and signal would be the double top into head and shoulders pattern. This would start by breaking 4444 (hypothesis of a wedge and a breakdown of my grind zone) Then ultimately a decline to the 4200 long term channel bottom (super strong support) which also happens to be the H&S neckline. Below 4200 I'd start to believe in the possibility of a true market correction down to the 3500-3600 zone. Coincidentally, that is a 15% correction and pretty close to the 0.5 fib retrace.
SP:SPXShort
by upslidedown