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Spy Possible Outcomes Short/longFirst thing i want to say is we've had a crazy month and anything is possible so dont take any of my ideas as financial advice. im only 16 with 2 very crazy years of experience. 1. . My first idea, and the one I believe in the most, is that we will bounce up and test the 389.46 level, and with all of the events leading up to that and October being right around the corner, we will most likely rally next week up to that level and then fall back before October (worst month for stocks other than september.) With momentum, I expect us to capitulate and fall straight down to 321.79 at the end of October, leading to the end of midterms, allowing us to bounce and rally through the winter, leading back into the 2023 chaos. After that, I have no idea what will happen; I haven't looked far enough, but this will be around the time ill be looking to buy indivual stocks again. 2.The second idea is we break through that 389.46 level and test that higher trend line around 4.12-4.15 where i expect us to reject near end of october also leading into midterms where we would then have the so said crash to 293.96 (2019 Highs) from november leading into beginning of 2023 having the dark winter everyone was talking about couple months ago. 3.Third and final idea in mind is we break the 398.46 level and we trade sideways unti lmarch of next year forming the right shoulder for the "crash" in march. This idea would kill all option premium for the next 6 months and would be the definion of max pain for option traders. 1 is my go to idea that i believe has the highest probability. 2. is a controversial one because midterms are expected to be bullish for the market and the market is going to be doing the opposite but with all the overseas new could still be a possibility. 3. Also a very controversial idea just threw it in because of the head and shoulders possibility. I Sold out of basically all my short position i'll be scaling back in through this expected rally. All these ideas are just ideas so dont take them to heart and please leave any opinions in the comments i will be reading everyones thoughts and criticism as i am just ur average teenager. time to do my homework :) Keep it respectful and happy trading everyone!
AMEX:SPYShort
by bullishbrowsing
2
Potential Failure in SPYSPY created a S/R Box between 362.17 - 431.73. There was an adjustment bar formed in July. These generated a weak point (danger zone) between 362.17 - 371.04 Should you set your stochastic to be the width of the box that was created (currently 4 bars), Jan - Apr was also a 4 bar box. When Stochastics move below 30, it is an indication that it is about to challenge the lows. Currently the stochastic is 17.32, this is suggesting that there is 17.32 of the box range left until the bottom is breached. The Apr 22 value for the 4 period stochastic was 1.96 suggesting weakness and a challenge of the low. However, there is a danger zone. 371.04, if prices could bounce from here (and on Sep 23, the price is 374.22 with a low of 373.44) it shows that there is strong support here. Should prices enter this zone, if fails to hold, the bottom will fall out. The next area of potential support could fall (based on calculations Sep 23) to between 340 - 350. However, there is still 6 trade periods left in the month. End of the month calculation could result in a lower target range being generated.
AMEX:SPY
by priceprophet
1
SPX: The 4 Horseman of the Apocalypse"When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the fourth living creature saying, “Come!” Behold, I saw a horse, pale greenish gray. The name of the one riding on it was Death" Hello, and welcome to the Apocalypse :D With SPY/SPX recent moves, I thought I'd scan history to see if there's anything unique about the pattern we see today. I wasn't disappointed. The best way I can describe it so far is a decline + 3 bear market rallies that I highlight here (weekly charts): This pattern has been present 5 other times in history, 4 of which ended in declines ranging from -37% to -56%. After the 3rd bear market rally, a 4th comes. The 4th horseman of the apocalypse signaling the end is nigh! Keep in mind that recognizing patterns has an element of bias to it and these were all identified to the best of my abilities. Hmmmmmm... 1966 23% move down from the highs 238 days from top to bottom 1968 37% move down from the highs 532 days from top to bottom 1973 50% move down from the highs 630 days from top to bottom 2000 50% move down from the highs 693 days from top to bottom 2007 56% move down from the highs 511 days from top to bottom Another interesting thing to note is that they seem to happen in sets of 2 with the second downturn moving 10%-13% lower than the first low. 1968-1974 2000-2009 If this pattern does in fact play out, it would mean this chart can guide you into the future of when to buy for the next bull market, and when to sell before the next decline. What's also interesting to take note of is that although our current issues of inflation are more related to the 70s than 2000-08, the market movements are more in line with the speed of 2000-08. 68-73 slowly fell from the top and then quickly fell to the bottom whereas 00-08 quickly fell from the top and slowly fell towards the bottom (time wise). For that reason, most of my predictions are based on 00-08. Lastly I'll post my projection for the end of this recession. You can look at my previous post which mapped the exact moves of 00 and 08 based on time and percentage.
SP:SPXShort
by PlayerNonZero
#spy What was up with the quick pump on Friday?Hey wasup, SPY SPY happy MONDAY TRADERS I hope you all had a great weekend. Unfortunately Bitcoin didn't lmao. Its really funny what they did on Friday 30 mins before closing . If the dollar stays around $109.70 or above $110.00 you can kiss all of that pump goodbye and see you again at 383 -385. luckily for me I placed puts right. before close on Friday . Stuff like that is tooo good to be true. I will continue to post my out look of the market through out the week. If you would like for me to post my entries for other stocks this week let me know and I will post them and give you my IG. Please do not get caught short in puts or calls. minimize your losses and take advantage of your executions. Fed meets this week so you know what that means . They tried to price in the interest rates last week so they can pump it up this week just to catch you with your pants down by the end of the month don't say I didn't warn you.
AMEX:SPY
by Courtneyd
3
SPY SPY SPY Quad Witching Hey to you all. Ive been trading spy for some years now and I figured, I would like to give this a shot and get the chance to make some new friends and talk about the stock market. Lets Make some money. So for starters we see spy already gapping down early this morning for 1 reason only. have you seen the news lately ? But I will be honest the news tricks you. Pay attention to the charts and keep ya ish tight and leave your emotions at the door once the bell rings. I have spy going to atleast $380 by the end of the day . Lets check back in when the market closes . Ive been puts since 411 and again at 400 and again at 395.
AMEX:SPY
by Courtneyd
2
SPY Analysis: Mid September 2022This is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for the period of September 12th through September 16th. Weekly Expected Move There is a 68% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range: High price: 416.90 Low price: 396.30 There is a 95% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range: High price: 427.20 Low price: 386.00 For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is expected to move from the close of the prior week until the close of the current week. It is calculated using the implied volatility from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior week but before the opening of the current week. For more information on how to calculate these values, see the link at the bottom of this post. Volatility & Seasonality Historically, volatility typically remains subdued from about the 5th trading day of September until around the 12th trading day of September (September 19th) at which point volatility spikes substantially going into early October, as the chart below shows. This year, the 12th trading day of September happens to coincide with quadruple witching on Friday, September 16th. There is a particularly high chance that the market will become volatile from around that time into early October. There may also be increased volatility if the CPI report that comes out before the market opens on Tuesday, September 13th surprises to the upside. Although inflation is subsiding, I will note that the consensus prediction is higher than the Fed's prediction. In my post about the Fed pivot, I noted that we can extrapolate from the overnight reverse repurchase operations that the inflation rate may be around 8.3%, which is higher than consensus. I also note in that post that inflation is likely to continue to subside modestly in the coming months. See the link below to my post to understand how I reached that prediction. Of note, even though we had one of the worst first 6 months of the year in stock market history, there has still not been backwardation in the VIX term structure. VIX term structure backwardation simply means that the market is pricing in decreasing volatility in the future. This is concerning because VIX term structure backwardation is a characteristic of virtually all major stock market bottoms, as it reflects the type of capitulation that major stock market bottoms typically exhibit. Fibonacci Levels Price found support last week almost exactly at the golden ratio (0.618) using the June bottom and the peak in mid-August. This is generally bullish as it reflects a fairly typical retracement. See below chart. At the close of last week, the 4-hour chart became overextended and printed a bearish reversal candle right at the EMA ribbon. The stochastics are overextended as well. Thus, there is a chance that price may either consolidate or reverse to the downside for the short term. If SPY overcomes the EMA ribbon on the 4-hour chart, it is likely to face significant resistance at the Fibonacci level around the 415, as shown below. This level also resisted price in late May and early June. Regression Channel Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert back to its mean (or average) for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us identify which trend is governing price action. These channels can give insight into trend reversals. In my SPY analysis for the end of August, I posted the below regression channel. I indicated that the June-August rally is no longer governing price movement and that price is regressing to the mean of the larger bear market channel (red line of the longer channel). Indeed, price reverted precisely to that line, as shown below. What this means is that the larger bear market downtrend is still intact and is governing price action. As many market participants know, our pathway to breaking this bear market will involve one or both of the following: (1) CPI reports continue to surprise to the downside; (2) The market begins to price in a Fed pivot (the Eurodollar Futures will provide insight after quad witching on Friday, September 16th). Weekly Chart The weekly chart shows that the bear market continues unabated. In the below weekly chart, I placed the EMA ribbon (yellow and orange lines) on the chart to show that it continues to resist price downward. This is the longest period of time that the S&P 500 has been resisted by the weekly EMA ribbon since the Great Recession. In the below chart, I added the WaveTrend indicator. Do you notice the two teal/light blue shaded weekly candles? These represent bearish crossovers. They suggest that further downside is likely. Based on my research, when two weekly bearish crossovers occur on the WaveTrend indicator while price is consistently being resisted by the weekly EMA ribbon, further downside occurs before a bull run. Specifically, at minimum, price drops below the low of the week in which the second bearish crossover occurred before a sustained bull rally occurs. In other words, we can expect that SPY could drop below 388 before a sustained bull rally occurs. This is not a perfect indicator, but it's quite plausible. On the flip side, there is a major positive sign in the weekly chart. Specifically, there is a possible formation of a reverse head and shoulders as illustrated below. As you know, a reverse head and shoulders pattern is bullish and the measured move up is generally the distance from the bottom to the neckline. Monthly Chart The monthly chart continues to undergo a bottoming process. Price is being supported by the EMA ribbon and the WaveTrend indicator is trying to build a significant bullish crossover (the third most significant bullish crossover on the monthly chart in SPY's history -- the SPY ETF was created in the 1990s). If the Fed pivots by October, then I would expect the close of November will give us a formal bullish crossover. Until then, there's room for caputilation-type candles to continue. Stage of the Economic Cycle: Late Stage (Stages are early, mid, late and recession) Since the 10Y/2Y yield curve remains inverted we are in the late stage of an economic cycle. Below is a chart of how each sector typically performs during this stage. Credit: Fidelity Investments We are most likely in Stage 6 of the economic cycle as shown below because stock, bonds, and commodities have all been declining to some degree in the past several months and because the yield curve is inverted. Once the yield curve inverts, economic contraction will subsequently occur. Although the general trend of all assets is down during Stage 6 there can still be rallies before contraction takes hold. Credit: StockCharts.com Yearly Chart While the monthly chart suggests a bottoming formation that can lead to a rally in the 4th quarter of 2022 into the 1st quarter of 2023, the yearly chart is much more bearish. Below is a regression channel that I created of the entire stock market history dating back to 1871. It helps us measure and compare every major market top and bottom in history. Below is a closer view. To put things in perspective, the June 2022 bottom was the same standard deviation from the mean as the Great Depression peak. The stock market is so overvalued from a historical perspective, that we had to undergo one of the worst first 6 months in stock market history just to get down to a level that is roughly as overvalued as the Great Depression peak. The Shiller PE Ratio confirms this scope of overvaluation, as shown below. The stock market is extremely overvalued because of monetary easing. Monetary easing is a central bank experiment that began in recent decades and was normalized in the years following the Great Recession. Today, the amount of assets on central banks' balance sheets due to monetary easing is unprecedented in the past 322 years for which reliable data exist. The monetary easing experiment has created tremendous reliance on its continuity. Under the surface cracks are beginning to appear, as indicated in the chart below, which shows the impending rise in cost to the U.S. federal government to finance its debt in the future. Only time will tell how the experiment ends... Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your thoughts. Thank you. If you'd like to plot the weekly and daily expected moves for SPY on your chart, try the indicator "SPY Expected Move by VIX", which is calculated from the VIX rather than from the implied volatility of the options chain. The expected moves that I've posted above were manually calculated by me using SPY options chain data. If you'd like to learn how to calculate the weekly expected move yourself, this video can help: www.youtube.com
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
60
BEST BULLISH SET UP OF THE WEEKStumbled upon the U chart and I see some possible magic. Clearly has gotten obliterated even more than the overall market. What I don't like about the chart is that the price is currently under IPO price which is always a red flag. I am not sure what kind of BS has been going on since their IPO but I'm looking strictly at technicals. What I love about the chart VOLUME VOLUME VOLUME that's what I want to see as a bull. Appears to be some clear-cut textbook accumulation complete with a nice retest. That green doji to end the week is sexy. If it opens red tomorrow or turns red this is the play of the week IMO especially if the rest of the market is holding up. As always not financial advice just some opinions.
NYSE:ULong
by EZmoney24
1
SPX/SPY Fib Retracement Key Levels I've been watching SPX/SPY very closely to see which direction it decides to go through the rest of the year. We are at a VERY IMPORTANT range. Initially the top trend line acted as resistance and short bias looked to be validated with the reject of the 0.681 golden zone. You can see a bounce off the shorter term long bias 0.681 retracement almost perfectly from this years low. Short term long needs to hold 0.618 for us to see retest of highs trend line. This will be the best entry point for short position into the rest of the year as a retest to break out of channel is going to likely reject. Ultimately SHORT bias long term , potentially LONG bias short term . Short Term PT $420 Long Term PT $334
AMEX:SPYShort
by stonkhodler
SPY S&P 500 September is historically the worst month for stocksTwo months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst. Economic context: Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe through a key pipeline until western sanctions are lifted. OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day. August 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on September 13, 2022. Fed’s next scheduled monetary policy meeting takes place on September 20-21. Depending on how inflation is trending and how the jobs markets and overall economy is looking we expect a Fed Rate Decisions of 50bps or 75bps hike. The crypto market context is not good either. Ethereum network’s security and performance could be negatively impacted by the upcoming Merge. Taking into consideration the information above, my price target for the SPY ETF is $374. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
4
SPY Analysis: End of AugustThis is a daily chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with its weekly expected move plotted for August 29th through September 2nd. For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price within the current week, based on the level of implied volatility as calculated from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior week but before the opening of the current week. Assuming the asset's price is normally distributed from its mean, there is approximately a 68% chance that the asset's price will close the week within the range of the weekly expected move . With this said here is my latest SPY analysis: Set Up Score : 1 out of 10 This score measures the likelihood of a bullish breakout. A score of 0 suggests a very low chance of a bullish breakout and a score of 10 suggests an extremely high chance of a bullish breakout. Currently, the score is 1, which is very low. Therefore, the risk-to-reward is against opening new long positions at this time. One should wait for consolidation to enter long positions. Weekly Expected Move : As noted above, there is a 68% chance that the week will close within this price range. High price: 416.23 Low price: 394.39 Volatility : The potential for increased volatility remains high. As you can see below, the VIX broke above the weekly EMA ribbon and its Stochastic RSI shows that it has only just begun its oscillation upward. How high is the VIX likely to go? If the resistance trendlines shown in the chart below continue to hold, then the VIX should begin to retreat once it hits the 30s. If the weekly candle closes well above 30 then it's likely that we will see yet even more volatility and the June bottom will become vulnerable. With this said, increased volatility is what we expect this time of year from a seasonality perspective. Seasonality : The August to October timeframe typically sees increased volatility. The S&P 500 usually declines into the close of August relative to its peak in mid-August. Therefore, in the midst of all the selling that may or may not happen this week, keep in mind that selling is typical for this time of year. Fibonacci levels : Price is retracing the bull run from the June low to the mid-August high. Last week closed almost exactly at the golden ratio (0.618) of this move. The next Fibonacci level below is 396.95 and it is not too far from the bottom range of the weekly expected move (394.39). So these levels could act synergistically to potentially support price, should it fall down to this level. Regression : Below are two regression channels that I fitted to the data in a manner that maximized the Pearson scores, and in a manner to reflect both the bear market downtrend and the rally from the June bottom. Regression channels simply help us determine where price is moving relative to its mean or average. It appears that the June rally is no longer governing price movement and that price is regressing to the mean of the larger bear market downtrend. If price falls to the bear market regression channel mean, I would expect it to find some degree of support at that level. Weekly Chart : The weekly chart shows that price continues to retrace downward following a bearish inverted hammer that formed when price hit the Ichimoku Cloud. Subsequently, price fell below the EMA ribbon - this is bearish. Therefore, both the weekly EMA ribbon and the weekly Ichimoku Cloud continue to act as resistance to SPY. As you can see above, now price has fallen below the EMA ribbon while the Stochastic RSI is oscillating down. This is also bearish. A rare event occurred in early August whereby the K value of the Stochastic RSI reached its maximum value of 100 while price was still not above the weekly EMA ribbon. This rare event typically occurs during economic recessions, but has been also been identified during the recovery stage of market crashes outside the context of recessions (e.g. following Black Monday in 1987). Monthly Chart : The below monthly chart shows an inverted hammer candle in which price was pushed right back down to the EMA ribbon. Inverted hammers after significant selling are actually signs of a bullish reversal. They represent the capitulation phase of the bottoming process. Whenever a candlestick forms a long upper wick after there has been a significant sell off but also after the stochastics have started to oscillate back up, this reflects selling into any signs of strength. The market participants who sell or short into any signs of strength need to exit before a sustained bull run ensues. Since this is still occurring in the candlestick for August, this means that more time (more months) must elapse before a major sustained bull rally is likely to emerge. Yearly Chart : Although the yearly candle is not completed, the chart shows that we are precariously sitting on the third Fibonacci extension of the Great Depression high. The Stochastic RSI shows a bearish cross of the K line and D line. For more details about why this concerns me, you can view the below post for my long term projections. Stage of the Economic Cycle : Late Stage (Stages are early, mid, late and recession) Since the 10Y/2Y yield curve is currently inverted we are in the late stage of an economic cycle. Below is a chart of how each sector typically performs during this stage. Credit: Fidelity Investments We are most likely in Stage 6 of the economic cycle as shown below because stock, bonds, and commodities have all been declining to some degree in the past several months and because the yield curve is inverted. Once the yield curve inverts, economic contraction will subsequently occur. Although the general trend of all assets is down during Stage 6 there can still be rallies before contraction takes hold. Credit: StockCharts.com For my thoughts on the coming recession you can view my post here: Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your thoughts. Thank you.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
43
Adjusted for inflation trendlineIn a philosophical way the money is a measure of value and all its quantity represents the resources from beneath the ground that are constantly being dug each day of our lives. Deluting the quantity of the currency supply does not change the value of every rare earth which came out of the ground to construct our physical world or the nutrients which fuel our productivity as facilitators of the constant digging process. Adjusting for the inflation even though its never 100% accurate gives us an idea where we are and where we are heading from the most fundamental perspective. Inflation can deceive, just like everybody who bought the 2000 bubble top thought they are at breakeven 8 years later.
SP:SPXShort
by FeelsFX
BOUNCE TIME (CHECK MY HISTORY)SPY has been getting absolutely shellacked as I predicted. Closed a bunch of my shorts now I am adding some short term longs. Now SPY has approached a key support level at 390. You can see in the past couple months 390 has acted as support and resistance. Now its time to do its job as support. As you can see I don't expect much of a rally but am expecting a short lived rally. That is when I will begin adding back to the short side. Not financial advice just my opinion.
AMEX:SPYLong
by EZmoney24
1