2X $SPY 2008 FELL ALMOST 55% (HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF!)in 20008, the market crash was a pivotal part of the US economy and History. We see almost the exact same setup occurring now in 2022. Prepare for a recession and it is time for PUT SZN!!!
Spyshort
SPY Analysis: End of AugustThis is a daily chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with its weekly expected move plotted for August 29th through September 2nd.
For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price within the current week, based on the level of implied volatility as calculated from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior week but before the opening of the current week. Assuming the asset's price is normally distributed from its mean, there is approximately a 68% chance that the asset's price will close the week within the range of the weekly expected move .
With this said here is my latest SPY analysis:
Set Up Score : 1 out of 10
This score measures the likelihood of a bullish breakout. A score of 0 suggests a very low chance of a bullish breakout and a score of 10 suggests an extremely high chance of a bullish breakout. Currently, the score is 1, which is very low. Therefore, the risk-to-reward is against opening new long positions at this time. One should wait for consolidation to enter long positions.
Weekly Expected Move :
As noted above, there is a 68% chance that the week will close within this price range.
High price: 416.23
Low price: 394.39
Volatility :
The potential for increased volatility remains high. As you can see below, the VIX broke above the weekly EMA ribbon and its Stochastic RSI shows that it has only just begun its oscillation upward.
How high is the VIX likely to go? If the resistance trendlines shown in the chart below continue to hold, then the VIX should begin to retreat once it hits the 30s.
If the weekly candle closes well above 30 then it's likely that we will see yet even more volatility and the June bottom will become vulnerable.
With this said, increased volatility is what we expect this time of year from a seasonality perspective.
Seasonality :
The August to October timeframe typically sees increased volatility.
The S&P 500 usually declines into the close of August relative to its peak in mid-August.
Therefore, in the midst of all the selling that may or may not happen this week, keep in mind that selling is typical for this time of year.
Fibonacci levels :
Price is retracing the bull run from the June low to the mid-August high. Last week closed almost exactly at the golden ratio (0.618) of this move.
The next Fibonacci level below is 396.95 and it is not too far from the bottom range of the weekly expected move (394.39). So these levels could act synergistically to potentially support price, should it fall down to this level.
Regression :
Below are two regression channels that I fitted to the data in a manner that maximized the Pearson scores, and in a manner to reflect both the bear market downtrend and the rally from the June bottom. Regression channels simply help us determine where price is moving relative to its mean or average.
It appears that the June rally is no longer governing price movement and that price is regressing to the mean of the larger bear market downtrend. If price falls to the bear market regression channel mean, I would expect it to find some degree of support at that level.
Weekly Chart :
The weekly chart shows that price continues to retrace downward following a bearish inverted hammer that formed when price hit the Ichimoku Cloud.
Subsequently, price fell below the EMA ribbon - this is bearish.
Therefore, both the weekly EMA ribbon and the weekly Ichimoku Cloud continue to act as resistance to SPY.
As you can see above, now price has fallen below the EMA ribbon while the Stochastic RSI is oscillating down. This is also bearish.
A rare event occurred in early August whereby the K value of the Stochastic RSI reached its maximum value of 100 while price was still not above the weekly EMA ribbon. This rare event typically occurs during economic recessions, but has been also been identified during the recovery stage of market crashes outside the context of recessions (e.g. following Black Monday in 1987).
Monthly Chart :
The below monthly chart shows an inverted hammer candle in which price was pushed right back down to the EMA ribbon.
Inverted hammers after significant selling are actually signs of a bullish reversal. They represent the capitulation phase of the bottoming process. Whenever a candlestick forms a long upper wick after there has been a significant sell off but also after the stochastics have started to oscillate back up, this reflects selling into any signs of strength. The market participants who sell or short into any signs of strength need to exit before a sustained bull run ensues. Since this is still occurring in the candlestick for August, this means that more time (more months) must elapse before a major sustained bull rally is likely to emerge.
Yearly Chart :
Although the yearly candle is not completed, the chart shows that we are precariously sitting on the third Fibonacci extension of the Great Depression high. The Stochastic RSI shows a bearish cross of the K line and D line.
For more details about why this concerns me, you can view the below post for my long term projections.
Stage of the Economic Cycle : Late Stage
(Stages are early, mid, late and recession)
Since the 10Y/2Y yield curve is currently inverted we are in the late stage of an economic cycle.
Below is a chart of how each sector typically performs during this stage.
Credit: Fidelity Investments
We are most likely in Stage 6 of the economic cycle as shown below because stock, bonds, and commodities have all been declining to some degree in the past several months and because the yield curve is inverted. Once the yield curve inverts, economic contraction will subsequently occur. Although the general trend of all assets is down during Stage 6 there can still be rallies before contraction takes hold.
Credit: StockCharts.com
For my thoughts on the coming recession you can view my post here:
Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your thoughts. Thank you.
Adjusted for inflation trendlineIn a philosophical way the money is a measure of value and all its quantity represents the resources from beneath the ground that are constantly being dug each day of our lives. Deluting the quantity of the currency supply does not change the value of every rare earth which came out of the ground to construct our physical world or the nutrients which fuel our productivity as facilitators of the constant digging process. Adjusting for the inflation even though its never 100% accurate gives us an idea where we are and where we are heading from the most fundamental perspective. Inflation can deceive, just like everybody who bought the 2000 bubble top thought they are at breakeven 8 years later.
BOUNCE TIME (CHECK MY HISTORY)SPY has been getting absolutely shellacked as I predicted. Closed a bunch of my shorts now I am adding some short term longs. Now SPY has approached a key support level at 390. You can see in the past couple months 390 has acted as support and resistance. Now its time to do its job as support. As you can see I don't expect much of a rally but am expecting a short lived rally. That is when I will begin adding back to the short side. Not financial advice just my opinion.
Fall wedge, will determine our pathFrom what I’m i’m able to see we are in a falling wedge which hypothetically we could see a bounce off the Fibonacci level and go up from here, however I think there’s an overall Barris sentiment in the economy and I think will break out of this wedge and fall down further. The next buying zone is charted out. In the short term I might expect some bouncing around the wedge. Ultimately I think we’re going to test previous levels. With some hope we will form a double bottom and make our way back up.
2X $SPY TP1 HIT! (SELLS FROM TRENDLINE)ON AUG.17th, I sent out the signal for spy to reject the trendline and fall more than 5%! The move was more than 5% and still running. On the 1HR there is a falling wedge, and it has broken out with a fake breakout, we will look to see if there is a retest then we could see a pullback to the $405 area. However, due to the volatility and speculation I am still heavily bearish!
SPY shedding some points : Target ~$319SPY shedding some points : Target ~$319
Predicting some trend analysis where SPY can test the previous lows and jump from 319 again
New bearish trend while respecting the fib?We might not have enough data to support a new trend line, but we have overall weakness in the economy. I think CPI is going to be about the same or slight beat, best case scenario.
I think the SPY will bounce off the fib come down to this $398/399 level, and either rug bull or begin a new bullish trend. I think we are looking at a bearish trend until $377 where we enter a strong buy zone.
SPY NOT LOOKING GOOD WATCH THIS AREA🔸️Ticker Symbol: SPY🔸️Timeframe: 4 Hour🔸️Investment Strategy: Short
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: SPY on the daily timeframe is suggesting we could see a further push to the downside. Money is currently flowing out of the market; we have a red sell signal illuminated and our middle band on the bottom dashboard is flashing red meaning bear market momentum. The first major level of support is around $390 followed by $380 if we stay in this bearish trading pattern. Thanks for following!
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⚠️ Trading is risky, and I understand nothing is guaranteed. Proper risk management should be in place at all times to minimize losses. Please consult a financial advisor before trading. All Inclusive Trading LLC is not a financial advisor and may not be held liable for any losses which may occur.
$SPX Daily - Rockin' the Casbah 2023$SPX Trade Idea into 2023. Now the king told the boogie men, You have to let that raga drop. Rockin' the Casbah, rock the Casbah.🎶
TP - $3441.04
Longterm Outlook SPYI am taking a more long-term look at where I see the index and at what prices I think would be too good an opportunity to pass up given the future interest rate hikes and unknowns with regards to oil prices & supply chains.
I personally feel the 325-350 range represents a good outlook on the economy overall. It would represent an acknowledgement of the problems caused by the pandemic and its related fallout. It is a humbling but optimistic figure.
I think it is very reasonable to expect buyers to support this valuation and it is a good place to look for long opportunities.
The 297-266 range represents an increasing amount of pessimism. I think it will take at least 3 negative quarters of GDP maybe 4 for us to enter this range. I would look to this range depending on how earnings reports look in the coming months.
Just my humble thoughts.
COSTCO STRONG SELLCostco appears to be forming a huge H&S on weekly. While I hadn't really paid much attention to Costco I did see it mentioned yesterday which caused me to take a look. Want to note that Costco has performed strong relative to the market and that's why I like it for a short. This recent rally over the past couple of months is leaving a lot of meat on the bone for a short IMO. As you can see the past couple years have been quite the run up. Unfortunately if we are going into a bear market even the best performing stocks are liable to pull back significantly. I think we are a long way from ATHs and I expect to Costco to at least hit the first three targets within the coming months. Taking some profits today on some other shorter swing shorts and hopeful Monday Costco opens green so I that I can begin scaling in a position. Thoughts? Disagree? Feedback welcomed and appreciated! NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE ALL MY OPINION
Comparing the S&P500 in the 2008 GFC with 2022Hey friends,
Enjoy this fractal based analysis of the stock market comparing now and 2008. I drew this fractal about a month ago and so far it has been following it perfectly. Let's see how we go.
✌️ Seb
SPY likely going towards lower lowsObviously there are many reasons to be bearish on the stock market in these times. This chart was made to highlight the bearish divergence on the rsi as well as the downtrend that we are currently seeing. The three green lines represent areas of support and potential short targets. Enjoy.
SPY Daily chartThe SPY laid out a nasty trap the past couple of weeks. After screaming up on a bear market rally the SPY made a huge gap up. If you take a look at the past months you'll see that most of the reversals after a bull run started with very similar gap. This gap lead me to go short a bit early. I got burned a bit but managed risk the best I could. As you can see the SPY gapped down Friday and closed near lows. This leads me to believe that the run may be coming to an end soon. There is no certainty but with the VIX closing red 10 straight weeks under some pretty tough financial conditions worldwide + lack of volume to support this rally. I think its logical that we may see some downside in the market in the near future.
$SPY daily Looking at $SPY 1D, the price is stalling around trendline resistance with a slight RSI divergence. We are going to continue monitoring for signs of relative weakness here while layering our short positions to swing for a move back down towards 400 by mid-september or sooner.
2X $SPY 1D ANALYSIS! (SPY MEETS TRENDLINE)$SPY has been bullish since June '22, after it broke the short-term bearish trendline & ran for +10%. seeing the rejection of the trendline can mean a reversal wait on confirmation! Lot of Good FOMC new had stocks rallying up after news but spy didnt move a lot which lets me know either end of a trend/reversal or a fake breakout & a long consolidation period!
SPY BEARISH TO 360I am watching the SPY as a rising wedge on declining volume. This would imply a bearish break down to come. The traditional target would be the bottom of the triangle at 360. most likely off some bad news involving escalation of international tensions.
SPY Bearish as semiconductor stock seem to have toppedComparing NVDA to the SPY in the chart, but most other semi stocks look the same. MU actually made a slightly higher high, but hit right into a major resistance level. We are seeing quite a bit of selling coming from semi's today so are they telling us the market is done going higher? Well I think so, or at least really close to being done. Started picking up bearish positions but will be layering in over the next few breakdowns.
$SPY Massive crash coming?🔸️Ticker Symbol: $SPY 🔸️Timeframe: 4 Hour 🔸️Investment Strategy: Neutral
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: The SPY is at a crucial level in the market at $428.43. We are testing the top deviation level on our regression trend line which typically means we could see a push lower in the market. If we draw a fib retracement the 38.2 level puts the SPY at around $407 which is very realistic if we bounce down from this area. Our dashboard also suggests that our money momentum is becoming over extended into the top sell section. Once we get a red dot appearing on the dashboard meaning a key EMA crossover, I would then look to go short on the SPY.
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⚠️ Trading is risky, and I understand nothing is guaranteed. Proper risk management should be in place at all times to minimize losses. Please consult a financial advisor before trading. All Inclusive Trading LLC is not a financial advisor and may not be held liable for any losses which may occur.
SPX / SPOT GOLD Ratio may be at a TOPSP:SPX
With the ration at a top as suggested by looking to the left and the RSI pivot
indicator, a strategy might be to exit stocks and buy spot gold.
An alternative view is that they both might be about to downtrend
but that gold will downtrend slower causing the ratio to drop.
Please comment as to your opinion. Thanks !
$SPY bulls in charge? maybe for now..$SPY momentum has been strong for the past few weeks. after the market switched gears to the upside after the government lifted off the covid restrictions this summer, and ok earnings in some of the big tech stocks couple weeks ago. i believe after the restrictions got lifted off, it helped the economy to get back on its feet. but despite the covid restriction being lit off, it created massive supply chain issues, and inflation. this is due to massive back log of the supplies that didn't get sold in the past 2 years because of the covid. Also, small businesses try to make up for the loss of profits during the pandemic.
here's my day trade price target for SPY on FRIDAY 08/15/22.
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For calls; buy above $429.17 and sell at 431.28 or above
For puts, buy below 426.49 and sell at 424.17 or below
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Welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play )
I am going to explain where I think this stock might possibly go the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities for day trades or scalp play.
If you have any questions or suggestions on which stocks I should analyze, please leave a comment below.
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