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STONKS WILL GET HAMMERED HARDFundamental PoV: ----------------------------------------- - Fade away recession fear for Q3 - Shift to hawkish Fed - 75 bps rate hike is a done deal - Escalation in Taiwan - Possible another supply disruption Overbought while market buying less hawkish the Jay Powell speech and now all the members turn hawkish. The green street U.S. Friday data confirmed that recession still far ahead, at least this fear will ease for the Q3. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 5.2% 4.9% 5.2% Average Weekly Hours (Jul) 34.6 34.5 34.6 Government Payrolls (Jul) 57.0K -6.0K Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul) 30K 17K 27K Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 528K 250K 398K Participation Rate (Jul) 62.1% 62.2% Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 471K 230K 404K U6 Unemployment Rate (Jul) 6.7% 6.7% Unemployment Rate (Jul) 3.5% 3.6% 3.6%
SP:SPXLong
by TradingCocktail
3
SPY analysis-option and fundmental the big topic of this month and July has been RECESSION . I believe it depends all on the labour market now if we start to see increasing unemployment that could tip us into a recession. this is why I am short on the SPY because I believe this rally will fizzle out because there have been no real positive changes in the macroeconomics currently to fuel this rally, today we have initial jobless claims which will give us a good insight to which way the labour market is moving. which now is the main factor into the decision if we are going into a recession because the realized strength of the consumer is purely based on them receiving an income. Because of their credit card debt, the US consumer heavily relies on credit cards which could possibly mean with the labour market becoming weaker consumer spending could decrease even further as this has already started to happen. another sign that supports my view is that implied volatility has decreased and the lower the implied volatility the lower the premium paid for the option which means it will fall in value. as well as a put-to-call ratio of 1.265 which shows an increase of negativity around the SPY. currently, we have a volatility smirk for the SPY which is where the implied volatility for lower strike prices so this means investors are buying more puts(short position). this option analysis gives us a good insight into which way the SPY will move. on a micro company level, the cost of debt is increasing because of Hawkish rate hikes. if the cost of debt increases the weighted average cost of capital will increase(WACC) so for a company to be creating value its return on invested capital has to be higher than WACC. the reason I have included this is that i gives a good insight into what is actually causing these companies' value to decrease.
AMEX:SPYShort
by harrybergin
3
SPY Trade Idea (BULL TRAP)Here Im using the trend based fib ext. SPY is currently at the June highs and the 1.618 Fib level. Seeing deviation with price making a higher high and the RSI making a lower low on the 4HR. (Bearish) In June fear turned to euphoria in an instant. Talks about the bear market being over started, just like it is now. Spy fell out of an ascending channel after initially getting rejected from the 1.618. (Bearish) In June it took about a week to finally sell off and bull market talks faded in the. background. I think we see a similar story in the next few days and weeks. If you're bullish i would be patient, things dont go up in a straight line. The RSI on the daily is at levels not seen since March. VIX is on a strong support which has generally marked local tops. If you notice there has been 3 times we previously touched this support and every time has been a sell signal. Same goes with the top resistance, every time we touched resistance it marked a local bottom in the stock market as you can see with the red and green arrows. In the coming weeks I am bearish on SPY and anticipate a retest of 390, a break below that and the next level is 380. However coming off one of the best months in a long time the medium to long term future looks bright for the stock market. We look to be forming a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern on higher time frames and if this is the case we should see strong support in the 380-390 range. (This is where Im swinging long if the market gives us these levels). I would also like to see VIX at resistance to further confirm the trade. I wouldn't be surprised if VIX broke out of this wedge, and give us the 40+ everyone has been calling for which if in fact we do reach those levels on VIX i think that would be the max opportunity to go long on the market. We will cross that bridge when/if we get there. Ill soon be posting ideas on individual stocks, let me know if you guys agree or disagree!
AMEX:SPY
by anamaly
SPX-Sell the rip!!!Last weekend I posted about wickless gaps and how those are continuation patterns. I also made a statement that I did not think we would see SPX at 4K for a while. The above chart shows my thinking process since many traders on TV are calling for a possible retrace to 4020 levels. IMO the June 6th weekly candle made a very bold statement...it bearishly crossed the wickless bull gap that was created March/April of 2021 and then proceeded to make it own bearish wickless gap. ***In early May we tested the 4K area and closed below it on the weekly however the following week (May 23rd) we bullishly crossed right though that wickless gap. THIS WAS THE BULL CASE-we needed to HOLD this level for bullish confirmation but the bullish case has failed.*** On May 19, 2022: “What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we're going to keep pushing until we see that,” Powell said Tuesday during a Wall Street Journal live event. “If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of 'neutral,' we won't hesitate at all to do that.” Wed, June 15, 2022: Powell announced a 75 bps rates hike vs. a 50 bps rate hike that was anticipated in May. Moral of the story-Don't Fight the Fed. (Of note on this chart are uncleared gaps on the weekly SPX-there are a couple even lower than 2200)
SP:SPXShort
by Vixtine
16
TOP WAVE STRUCTURE SUMMER RALLY HAS ENDED In the dec 2021 forecast I called for very SPECIFIC DATES AND fib projection as well as Fractals . The only BULLISH pattern is that the low near target 3588/3480 focus 3511 will be seen in the week of oct 4th to the 20 th see NOV 2021 post welcome to 1962 . I have traded the long side on 5 trades and sold out and short within less than 1 % or on the money . This is not because I am a good trader .it is simple it is and has been a FRACTAL since march 2009 and oct 1932 . my model of put call and vix are set and have made it I am short. one by one assets are deflating . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER !!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by wavetimer
4
Market Analysis: SPY PerformanceIn this post, I will give a market analysis focusing on the current status of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). As you can see in the chart above, SPY broke out above the exponential moving average ribbon (yellow and orange) lines. Increased volume confirmed the breakout. The ribbon continues to narrow which also confirms the breakout. Moving averages converge during the consolidation phase prior to a breakout. However, there are quite a few signs that are still bearish. First, the VIX is at the bottom of its trend line and both the daily and weekly oscillators for the VIX are ready to move back up. This creates a strong directional bias toward greater volatility in the coming days and weeks. Second, another headwind for the SPY is that we are heading into a bearish part of the year: August and September. Look at the below seasonality chart for August and September. Third, due to extreme bearishness, market participants have begun to respond extremely bullishly to any news with a glimmer of hope, even when the news is largely bad. For example, today the Fed indicated that it would hike interest rates another 75 basis points (continuing an historic rate of change) and then, in September, start to accelerate the roll-off of assets from its balance sheet. In a normal context, the market would crash on such news, but today it rallied strongly. Even though these Fed actions will, to a very high degree of certainty, cause a recession, in the interim these actions will quell inflation, which is the market's present concern. Few market participants have seemed to notice that the Federal Reserve has been reducing money supply at a significant rate both through direct means and through more obfuscated means. This creates a near technical impossibility for risk assets to explode higher at the previous bull rally speed. However, there are definitely positive signs as well. After all, markets typically rise the fastest at the end of the economic cycle (after the yield curve inverts) and as the Fed signals a pivot to less tightening. Indeed, the monthly oscillators on the SPY are ready to move back up creating a directional bias for SPY to go higher in the coming months. In July, it has been steadily putting in higher highs. More often than not, when the K line crosses above the D line on the Stochastic RSI oscillator while it is in oversold territory, the following months experience a rally. However, there are quite a few false positives of this indicator, especially in the context of a recession. There are some important Fibonacci levels that are also acting as support. For more on SPY Fibonacci levels, you can view my prior post below: Finally, I would be remiss not to show one last important S&P 500 chart that some may find disturbing: The yearly Stochastic RSI of the S&P 500 (see below) This ominous chart shows that 2021 was sitting right at the top of an overextended yearly Stochastic RSI and 2022 began the process of oscillating down. In the 150 years of S&P 500 data that produced this chart, a rapid descent from this high level of over-extension has only occurred five times before. In the best scenario, the stock market only managed to go up 50% in the decade during which the oscillator corrected downward. In another case, the stock market was roughly flat for a decade (rising less than 10% for the entire decade). The other two cases were the 2000-2002 Dot Com bust and the Great Depression. Interestingly, just last month we bounced off the third Fibonacci spiral from the peak of the Great Depression. Perhaps this is a mere coincidence, or perhaps we'll have a mild recession like we did at the second Fibonacci spiral from the Great Depression (the recession of the early 1990s), or perhaps we are beginning a new supercycle characterized by low economic growth, recessions and stagflation. Only time will tell. I'm curious to hear thoughts and counter-arguments, so please feel free to comment below (but please be polite).
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
7
SPX/SPY-A trader's thought processFor me, as a full time trader, writing out my ideas allows me to verbalize my thoughts even if no one views them or cares...I do them for myself and myself only. It gives me history of my thinking process and helps me in the everyday learning process of being a full time trader. In fact, I'm always talking to myself to gain an understanding of my thought process so that I have a well thought out plan before I take on a trade. So here goes it...my non-charting thought process as to why I don't think SPX will get to 4000 and why SPY will not get to $400. (From a charting perspective you can view my last two posts about wickless gaps and how I see those as continuation patterns, etc, etc.) Anyways, most people that know me personally know that I'm a full time swing trader so a lot of people have been asking me about the market and what do I think. At the hospital where my husband works people have been asking him "what is your wife saying about the market". So the general public is starting to worry about the overall stock market health and certainly the media is vacillating back and forth...the media has been very bearish, then proclaim the bottom is in, etc. Obviously no one knows for sure what will happen next. What I do know is that people have begun to "think" about the market...at this point they are not in panic mode. What I'm hearing from friends is that their financial advisors are advising (those 50 & older): if you are worried about the market then let's reduce some risk. SOOO this leads me to my non-charting analysis...if you were a financial advisor were would you have "orders" in the system to reduce your clients risk? If you were a swing trader and caught this last bottom where would you be selling to take profits? If you bought the 4K dip because you knew this gap would clear eventually and this was your "signal" to go long, you went long and thought you found the bottom because of the strong May 23rd rally but then the market proceeded to make a new low in the 3600 area; where might you be pulling some risk if you are questioning your 4K purchase? The answer to all these questions IMO is 4000-4150; some even see 4300-4400 as a possibility. (Most of the charts I'm seeing this weekend re:SPX/SPY within TV are calling for a greater than 4K retracement level this week & next). These are the questions I ask myself and it leads me to believe the market won't hit this nice round number people are expecting before we see either a re-test at 3636 or make a lower low because of the sheer number of "sell orders" that the market makers can see for people looking to reduce risk or selling into the strength. IMO last weeks rally squeezed out all the "late shorts" so the number of people "short" below 4K is probably fairly low. Lastly, we are also starting Q2 earnings season in July...Q1 earnings season produced a 7 week long bear run and April was a straight up bearish month; could July follow suit? Don't you think lots of traders remember those 7 weeks of hell if they were bullish on earnings and they might now be looking to reduce risk before going into the start of Q2 earnings season? Personally, I just don't see how Q2 earnings & conference calls will be any different from Q1 at this point. Welp...that is my thought process as to why I am looking for sell set-ups now/this week as we begin Q2 earnings season. I could be completely wrong and I will have my SL's in place and may loose some money on this thought process...hope you enjoyed my brain dump.
SP:SPXShort
by Vixtine
5
$spy s&p 500 etf CAUTION CAUTION $spxThe S&P 500 broke out of its descending trendline on Tuesday and is bulling, here is why I'm playing this cautiously... It has a gap (red) that it is beginning to fill. It can easily fill the entire gap (into supply zone) and be in this bear flag territory. This could be a BIG BULL TRAP. Beware as we head into FOMC Fed Meeting next week. I would not swing long into resistance under these circumstances. Can it break out above? YES. Do I think it will? NO. Only time will tell.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ChaldeaCode