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SPX/SPY-A trader's thought processFor me, as a full time trader, writing out my ideas allows me to verbalize my thoughts even if no one views them or cares...I do them for myself and myself only. It gives me history of my thinking process and helps me in the everyday learning process of being a full time trader. In fact, I'm always talking to myself to gain an understanding of my thought process so that I have a well thought out plan before I take on a trade. So here goes it...my non-charting thought process as to why I don't think SPX will get to 4000 and why SPY will not get to $400. (From a charting perspective you can view my last two posts about wickless gaps and how I see those as continuation patterns, etc, etc.) Anyways, most people that know me personally know that I'm a full time swing trader so a lot of people have been asking me about the market and what do I think. At the hospital where my husband works people have been asking him "what is your wife saying about the market". So the general public is starting to worry about the overall stock market health and certainly the media is vacillating back and forth...the media has been very bearish, then proclaim the bottom is in, etc. Obviously no one knows for sure what will happen next. What I do know is that people have begun to "think" about the market...at this point they are not in panic mode. What I'm hearing from friends is that their financial advisors are advising (those 50 & older): if you are worried about the market then let's reduce some risk. SOOO this leads me to my non-charting analysis...if you were a financial advisor were would you have "orders" in the system to reduce your clients risk? If you were a swing trader and caught this last bottom where would you be selling to take profits? If you bought the 4K dip because you knew this gap would clear eventually and this was your "signal" to go long, you went long and thought you found the bottom because of the strong May 23rd rally but then the market proceeded to make a new low in the 3600 area; where might you be pulling some risk if you are questioning your 4K purchase? The answer to all these questions IMO is 4000-4150; some even see 4300-4400 as a possibility. (Most of the charts I'm seeing this weekend re:SPX/SPY within TV are calling for a greater than 4K retracement level this week & next). These are the questions I ask myself and it leads me to believe the market won't hit this nice round number people are expecting before we see either a re-test at 3636 or make a lower low because of the sheer number of "sell orders" that the market makers can see for people looking to reduce risk or selling into the strength. IMO last weeks rally squeezed out all the "late shorts" so the number of people "short" below 4K is probably fairly low. Lastly, we are also starting Q2 earnings season in July...Q1 earnings season produced a 7 week long bear run and April was a straight up bearish month; could July follow suit? Don't you think lots of traders remember those 7 weeks of hell if they were bullish on earnings and they might now be looking to reduce risk before going into the start of Q2 earnings season? Personally, I just don't see how Q2 earnings & conference calls will be any different from Q1 at this point. Welp...that is my thought process as to why I am looking for sell set-ups now/this week as we begin Q2 earnings season. I could be completely wrong and I will have my SL's in place and may loose some money on this thought process...hope you enjoyed my brain dump.
SP:SPXShort
by Vixtine
5
$spy s&p 500 etf CAUTION CAUTION $spxThe S&P 500 broke out of its descending trendline on Tuesday and is bulling, here is why I'm playing this cautiously... It has a gap (red) that it is beginning to fill. It can easily fill the entire gap (into supply zone) and be in this bear flag territory. This could be a BIG BULL TRAP. Beware as we head into FOMC Fed Meeting next week. I would not swing long into resistance under these circumstances. Can it break out above? YES. Do I think it will? NO. Only time will tell.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ChaldeaCode
Market Analysis - SPY PerformanceIn this post, I will attempt to analyze where the market currently stands, and present both a strong bull case and a strong bear case. Bull case: First, the chart: The chart above shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a 4h timeframe. The yellow and orange lines are exponential moving averages that represent the MA Exp Ribbon. As noted in a prior post, the MA Exp Ribbon acts as resistance when price hits it from below. In order to pierce through the ribbon, and make a bullish breakout, a candle must do so on high volume and with strong momentum. On the bottom is the Stochastic RSI oscillator, which helps measure momentum. For the first time, in a long time, the 4h chart of SPY has seen price near the top of MA Exp Ribbon with strong momentum building to push through it. It is quite likely that the price will break through. Second, the VIX: As the chart below shows, the VIX has broken down from the trend that it held during its most volatile period over the second quarter. Just be cautious and patient because the VIX has not yet broken below its weekly MA Exp Ribbon. Third, the Advance-Decline Line (ADL): The advance-decline line has broken out and is absolutely soaring. This is possibly one of the most bullish-looking charts out there. The advance-decline line is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The advance-decline line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes, and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs. Right now there is a strong bullish divergence and the major indices have yet to break out. Seasonality: The current period (mid- to late-July) is typically bullish from a seasonality perspective: charts.equityclock.com . Indeed, there was a bull run during this period even in 2008 during the Great Recession. Bear case: (Warning this part is scary - but remember never to invest or trade based on emotion) Yield curve inversion: The 10-year minus the 2-year Treasury yield is used to detect an impending recession. When the 2-year yield rises above the 10-year yield that creates a yield curve inversion, which can often indicate that a recession is coming. In essence, it creates the presumption that shorter-term yields are higher than longer-term yields because we're in the late phase of an economic cycle when the economy is overheating, and that soon, the economy will slow down. Right now the yield curve inversion is very steep. In fact, just last week, the yield curve inversion actually steepened to a level that was even worse than what we saw before the Great Recession. Perhaps even more alarming is the extremely odd fact that the 10-year minus the 3-month Treasury is NOT indicating a recession. The federal reserve uses the 10-year minus the 3-month as a more reliable indicator for detecting an impending recession than the 10-year minus the 2-year. Right now that indicator is only showing a 6% chance of a recession in the year ahead: www.newyorkfed.org However, there's a major problem that throws into question the reliability of that indicator at the current time, and that problem is: The Rate of Change in the 10-year yield is off the charts. Look at the 10-year yield Rate of Change on a 3-month basis: There's no way the 3-month yield could possibly invert relative the 10-year yield when the latter's rate of change is off-the-charts, unless the former's rate of change was even more off-the-charts (as we see with the 2-year, which is why the 2-year was able to invert against the 10-year). Here's the 2-year yield rate of change: Therefore, the 10-year minus the 3-month may be showing no inversion, not because the chance of a recession is actually low, but more likely because the indicator itself is no longer working because the rate of change in the 10-year yield is so parabolic. The 10-year minus 3-month indicator only reliably works if the assumption that the 10-year yield rate of change will be relatively stable compared to the 3-month yield rate of change holds true. In the current environment, that assumption does not hold true. We've never seen this kind of rate of change in the 10-year yield during the period for which this indicator has been used to predict recessions. The 3-month yield would have inverted against the 10-year yield months ago, if the 10-year yield had remained relatively stable as it has during the past several decades. However, the 3-month yield cannot invert against something moving so fast to the upside. This is just simple math. This is extremely worrisome because many people are using this tool as a reason to believe that no recession will occur, when in fact, the tool has likely broken. In the scientific community, we know that a tool only works if its validity and reliability can be established. Validity refers to the extent to which the tool actually measures what it is being used to measure, and reliability refers to the extent to which the tool consistently makes accurate measurements. In this case, the reliability of the 10Y-3M tool has broken down because the assumption that the 10-year yield would always be more stable relative to the 3-month yield is not true this time around. This time is indeed different... So I leave you with these strong bull and strong bear considerations, and it is for you to determine how you want to play the market. Remember the rules of good trading!
AMEX:SPYLong
by SpyMasterTrades
11
(SPY) Triple Top FormingThe SPY chart is forming a beautiful triple top pattern, and with the up coming FED rate hike and (-) Q2 GDP data confirming a technical recession releasing July 28th. I believe that the triple top will be completed around the 29th of this month, and the SPY will drop to the bottom of the overall trend line at around $360. Also in this chart you can see that the SPY has strong resistance at the $390 price range and rejects hard back to support roughly at $370. Let me know what you guys think in the comments.
AMEX:SPYShort
by markriah22
2
SPY breakout attempt Number 1Breakout attempts can happen without any triggers but when a trigger appears and coincides with market bottom, then there is an agreement and slight trading conviction that may be worth considering into the last half of the year. There is a daily wolfe wave setup that triggered on June 21 closing day at 3767.75. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is 4332 which is expected to reach this price target before Sept 30. Projected targets are defined by identifying the apex of the wolfe wave and projecting a vertical line toward the green perforated projection tgt which is extending from left to right.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TOSOPTION
BEARISH ON SPY-currently forming a bearish rising wedge -lower highs in supply zone from 385-393 - ultimately bearish since FOMC is 7/26-7/27 and J. Powell was considering another 75 BPS hike -looking for a reject at 385 to then come down to retest 373 again -crossover of the 20/50 SMA at 10:30 July 14-15 on the 4HR chart IF SPY pushes above trailing resistance line from 393-383 then this bearish set up has failed I will only swing a put if we close at 383.70 or under Always trade your own plan ;) Sincerely Kai D3 Trades <3
AMEX:SPYShort
by Kailonid3
SPYMY PERSPECTIVE IS WHAT CAN HAPPEN THIS WEEK!! Looking overall, SPY is still in a downtrend. There is a possibility of 395 here because the market maker might try to liquidate some stop losses above 394. This week it's going to be a little volatile. I will consider buying some UVXY calls here or adding some shares if you are swinging shares. The market is overbought by comparing to vix as oversold. If the market dumps on Tuesday, UVXY will jump quickly as its movement is through the market's volatility. I'm going to grab some puts (STRIKE 367 EXPIRY AUGUST 19,2022)tomorrow at the end of the session, or if it triggers, ill buy on the spot with the market's movement. Worst-case Scenario, if the market does the opposite close short position, add some long shares of spy with 405 strike calls for next week.
AMEX:SPYShort
by UnknownUnicorn11669057
4
SPY: Short & Long Trading OpportunitiesSPY Daily providing brief directional opportunities for acute trades to the upside. Higher levels of conviction support the control held by sellers in the market auction; With a volume shelf last revisited and sustained notable in March 2021. After holding fair price of 377.03, the next critical level on watch for acceptance or rejection of fair value is 381.58, then KL of 385.42 (20SMA). Trend has been shown to be weaker when reaching resistance levels originating from March 2022. Levels >389.78 sees a revisit of next favorable area of structure via a gap to late 390's. Directional performance is contingent on using combined volume and value area placements during current market conditions// IV: 24.79%, IV Percentile: 79% , ATR: 8.79, Beta: 1.00
AMEX:SPY
by GroundNinja
SPY Analysis (July 1st)We are seeing a Heikin Ashi reversal candlestick forming on the weekly chart for SPY Heikin Ashi candlesticks are used by chartists to identify trends more easily, as well as to identify potential trend reversals. Reversal Heikin Ashi candlesticks have small bodies and long upper and lower shadows. Interestingly, we are seeing a reversal Heikin Ashi candlestick occur at the Golden Ratio. The Golden Ratio refers to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (though in the context of Fibonacci extensions, the Golden Ratio can also refer to the 1.618 extension). Those levels are often seen as the most reliable Fibonacci levels as they reflect a mathematically harmonic ebb and flow. The Golden Ratio forms order out of irrational numbers and is used to form order out of the randomness and chaos of the stock market. The Fibonacci retracement levels on this chart are drawn from the November 2021 high down to the March 2020 low and are not logarithmically adjusted. In general, logarithmically adjusted Fibonacci levels are more reliable, but both formats are used by traders. Of note, historically, the S&P 500 is stronger in July than in June. From 1980 to 2019, the average return for July was 0.79% while it was just 0.02% for June. (Source: stockanalysis.com) Also credit to @Breakout_Charts for this idea.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
11