$ES1! - H&S to 4540??Betting that this forming H&S pattern will complete and we could see a pullback to 4540 levels. Confluence with the .382 fib retracement as well. We'll see!! :D
Spyshort
Stocks Future will be based on 10 Y BondThe movements of the stock market and digital currencies will be dependent on the head and shoulders pattern on the US Treasury bond index, which gives an indication of the imminence of a major price explosion if it is broken upwards, which means without any doubt a significant decline in the stock market and digital currencies as well. also keep buying stocks as long as the resistance still hold , we need a real weekly break
It's going to be a red Christmas...As you can see... the spy is having trouble breaking the $470. I believe we will see one more hit at $470 and a slow selloff. but who really knows? probably the elites...
SPY Oulook 11/8/21SPY is looking for a touch of the 8D at $462.39 which is roughly 4621 ES_F. Would be a great place to long off of. Expecting some weakness the first few days then to go back to the santa rally.
US Market Technicals Ahead (8 November – 12 November 2021)Investors are to take note of the end of Daylight Saving Time (DST) that will effectively have the US exchanges open at an hour later, depending on your time zone starting today.
$SPX is currently closed at 200% ATR(14) away from its 10 days moving average, the first time since September 2020. Data on inflation will be the highlight of the U.S. economic calendar in the week ahead as investors continue to digest the Fed’s decision to begin tapering stimulus measures, marking the beginning of less accommodative monetary policy.
Earnings season is winding down, but there are still several companies set to report during the week. China’s Communist Party looks set to green-light a third term for President Xi Jinping.
Here’s what you need to know in the coming week.
Market Technicals
The benchmark index $SPX continues its high octane rally with a fresh new high established at 4,718 level, gaining +2.00% (+92.15 points) during the week.
$SPX is currently closed at 200% ATR away from its 10 days moving average, the first time since September 2020.
The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,660 level, a break of its short term uptrend momentum.
Inflation data
Data on producer price inflation for October is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed a day later by figures on consumer price inflation.
The CPI numbers are expected to hit their highest levels so far post-pandemic, with economists forecasting an increase of 0.6% month-on-month and 5.8% year-on-year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to rise by an annualized 4.3%.
At its latest meeting the Fed stuck to the view that high inflation would prove “transitory” and is not likely to require a rapid increase in interest rates, prompting investors to call it a “dovish taper.”
While the central bank has so far managed to communicate plans to begin scaling back its monthly bond purchases without triggering a taper tantrum, elevated inflation figures that fuel rate hike speculation could change that.
Earnings
Better-than-expected third-quarter earnings have boosted equities and Wall Street’s main indexes closed at record highs on Friday following a strong U.S. jobs report and positive data for Pfizer’s ($PFE) experimental antiviral pill for COVID-19.
Companies reporting in the coming week include entertainment company Walt Disney ($DIS), drugmakers AstraZeneca ($AZN) and BioNTech ($BNTX) along with Softbank ($SFTBY), PayPal ($PYPL), Coinbase ($COIN) and AMC Entertainment ($AMC),
China
The top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party are set to meet in Beijing from Monday through Thursday, where the decision-making Central Committee could give the go-ahead for an unprecedented third term for President Xi Jinping.
The meeting comes at a time when growth in the world’s second largest economy is faltering amid stringent measures to curb virus outbreaks, a clampdown on the property market, energy shortages and disrupted supply chains.
Data on Sunday showed that Chinese exports slowed in October, but still beat forecasts while imports fell short of forecasts, pointing to continued weakness in domestic demand.
Serious divergence on S&PWhat a crazy ride this has been the past week.
life is funny and makes things a little more difficult right before there is a break through.
IDK what the narrative will be here in the next couple of days/weeks though this is coming down no matter what.
The music will stop all together or pause briefly for a quick rush to the chairs like a nice game of musical chairs.
Technicals are all mostly bearish and even though markets have been pushing to ATH theres a serious divergence in technicals.
VIX is noice and cheap and a good time to take some profits off the table.
Good ol Jeffery Bezos sold 166,000,000 worth of stock on the first of this month along with other major CEOs that have been selling the past couple of weeks.
"A CMF sell signal occurs when price action develops a higher high into overbought zones, with the CMF diverging with a lower high and beginning to fall."
www.sec.gov AMAZON CEO
www.sec.gov GOOGLE CEO
www.sec.gov FACEBOOK CEO
www.sec.gov FACEBOOK CEO
That's all folks
The correction's finally there? Watching SPX forming a rising wedge for a couple of weeks. Nowadays might be a good possibility to look for a short position. Watch closely reactions on marked areas. As a target, I would look at the confluence zone of 236 fibo retracement with GAP structure that SPX left behind.
New Sell Signal - Time to Hedge/Exit Longs/Buy volatility imo.Hi folks!
See my Previous post for more information - in short, I believe it is really about time to start hedging long exposure to the broad U.S. Stock market.
T.A. Arguments:
- SPY tested both the massive broken trend line from march 2020 yesterday and got rejected.
- This Coincided with a rejection off the upper 1D Bollinger Bands.
- The insane long term RSI divergence is still valid.
- Trading volume very correlated with the VIX - i.e. higher volume on high-fear (and usually mostly red) days.
- VIX has turned up from right below 15 despite new intraday ATH every day. Green VIX on green SPY-days are not a good sign.
- (Not shown on chart) money Flow ETF also show a massive divergence, meaning that one USD increase in S&P500 value corresponds to less money invested (more investors are holding the same hand).
- (Now shown on chart) Fear and Greed Index - generally a decent contrarian indicator - is about to turn "Extremely Bullish" yet again.
- SPY/M2SL is now above its level on February 2020 - a level only seen at that time and at the peak of the DotCom bubble.
Other arguments:
- Liquidity crunch from tapering in the U.S., rate hikes from almost every central bank (yes, people from all over the world has contributed to this bubble - not only those directly affected by the U.S. Fed),
Potentially forced downturn (debt regulation) due to inflation and default risks.
- Potential collapse of the Chinese Property sector and its stakeholders - it seems very odd if this is priced at these levels.
- Potential Tether collapse (yes, you heard me right): If most of its 70 Billion USD reserves are (as rumours has it) actually in risky EM (including chinese Property) commercial paper, it is a massive risk for the crypto industry and all the liquidity currently placed there - such an event will be contagious with a high probability.
As I am just a greedy trader, I also want to take advantage of this environment, so I have loaded up on VIX futures (see orange graph).
My opinion is that volatility (and hedging in general) is extremely cheap at the moment with respect to the current market state.
However, this is a risky move (might even be riskier than holding the SPY), so I do not recommend (or is in any way authorised to recommend)
such a move - I just state that I am doing so myself, as you should never lister to someone without skin in the game.
I wish you all well :)
DYOR.
NFA.
Neve take the words of others as a given!
US Stock In Play: $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Index)S&P 500 is overly extended from its short term trend channel establishment. looking to do a short at break of day low and size my stop at day high.
Time to sell SPY/Buy VIX imo.Hi folks!
If you believe that technical analysis has any prediction power at all (I highly doubt that it has in any other environment than highly speculative ones due to self-fulfilling prophecy)
and you are net long the S&P500, then you might want to rethink.
- Very soon (possibly) testing broken trendline from march 2020
- Massive divergence on volume since trend broke (Volume follows VIX - not a good sign!)
- Massive divergence on RSI
- VIX at very low levels
In addition to this, the money flow indicator - usually a sound fundamental indicator - shows a serious divergence.
Add that to the macroeconomic picture and the pricing (much more important than the other factors I just stated),
and it would be a rather compelling case for selling the broad U.S. stock market.
I got rid of my last long exposure to U.S. stocks now and loaded up on VIX futures (VIXY) throughout this week - currently holding 85% (!)
of my portfolio in such contracts-
DYOR.
NFA.
I wish you all well! :)
Never take the word of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
SPY Major Downside Into NovemberExpecting a Y leg downwards within a WXY complex correction structure. This will create around a 6-8% drop in the S&P500 over the next month or so. The drop will likely take the form of a three-legged correction (internal WXY subdivision) which will end with a large acceleration downwards.
Spy upside and downsideSPY, if breaks pink evolving structure to the upside could test 448. But, if it break blue correction and continues down could test 427.
Spy Upside and DownsideSPY, if breaks pink evolving structure to the upside could test 448. But, if it break blue correction and continues down could test 427.
SPY ShortSpy short scenario week of 10/11. Rest of week short because evolving structure failed to break to the upside. Two continuation structures followed. Could be retesting head and shoulders at 427.
spy on the way down 📉confirmed downtrend on daily with lower highs put options imo are the way to go with appropriate price action
SPY - NEED TO CLEAR UP THE GAP THIS WEEK!Most likely we need to fill this gap before we go back up. Market doesn't like excess anything or gaps for the most part. Algo's are a menace but they are like an ADHD Wifey - They don't like small messes ruining their clean houses.
:) ,d aku ksdbns h sh h ky sc skh jc ybsK HSOAIJCL ASCSAOCASH HASLIHC B gKH IVHSLDIJLK B HVkvB MHVJn HG HG
Bear Pennat in SPYSeems like a bear pennant is forming.
Further market direction depends on the side that we break out of.
I am sour so i want to see a solid move down from these levels.
However, very aggressive buying is going on today.
Loaded SQQQ, SPXS, UVXY, SDOW and a some puts. Either getting paid or getting my ass handed to me.
SPY heading south for a long winterMonthly candles show just how much meat is on the bone for bears. RSI is just now exiting overbought territory, IV rank/percentile is making a move upward, MACD is quickly losing momentum, and US10Y yield is going to go skyward next year which is unquestionably going to shake out some big players. Based on support dating back to the 2008 CDO bubble and ensuing crash, it's my belief we're going to 300 and possibly lower by Jan/Feb next year. Everyone is saying we need a news catalyst; we don't. We are in the 400s because of irresponsible and debatably criminal monetary policy and we are hearing from the very perpetrators of this that we can expect tapering soon. Jpow could be out and who knows who could be in. Even the most bullish investors are uncertain right now.
The question isn't "what's needed to bring the market down", it's "by what miracle will the market remain where it is".
SPY / ES1 BEARISHPrice has bounced off a demand zone after todays drop. Price is looking to rally up to fill the imbalances that were left behind from the morning drop to grab more liquidity and test supply zone before taking price further down.
If price fails to break and hold above $433, sellers will look to take price down to $4234.00 by end of week where there is a naked POC waiting to be filled.
SPYWould be nice to get a drop to 410-420 for a nice buy the dip opportunity into the year end
365 would definitely be a gift.
180 in 2023? Jk (not)
We will see what Powell and Yellowstein has in store for us.
There are a million reasons to be bullish and a million reasons to be bearish. You pick the side you want to be on. I am 60/40 but may change my mind in the next 5 mins. You are welcome to do the same.
