SP500 - SPY - Model Forecast - As Above, So BelowModel Forecast for SPY
- Line of Least Resistance for SPY.
- TP1: 278.
- Will remodel after TP1, possibly lower.
- For Detailed Fundamental Analyses, see attached Idea.
GLHF
- DPT
Spyshort
S&P 500I believe S&P 500 will be making a measured move if it breaks the trendline and going to 345 mark
You know(!!) you are in a bubble ...... When:
The funding a 36-year stream of expected inflation-adjusted spending requires over 38 years of money up-front;
Every single decile of S&P 500 components is at record valuation extremes; www.hussmanfunds.com
The amount of leverage in the system (U.S. equity markets) is now easily the highest in history, by any measure, not just in absolute terms! (relative to GDP, etc. Margin Debt/GDP = Margin Debt/Market Cap x Market Cap/GDP Showing insane over-valuation across the board!);
In a world where speculators now value the stock of bitcoin at one-fifth the value of the entire U.S. monetary base;
The current SPAC mania is identical to the South Sea Bubble in as much as: "Let them see not what they do!";
In an economy with $11 trillion in corporate debt at $58 trillion in equity market capitalization;
When U.S. Market Capitalization exceeds 263% of U.S. GDP (the norm, not the low, being 78%);
Anyway, this is likely a Double Top here.
$SPY a bit higher then choppy downtrend...The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500® Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index, with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
SPY puts to 390 SPY looks like it needs a little stop
Strategy :
Opening up position : 1/3 of full wanted position size puts
Determine the RR that you want and choose your SL
$SPY - Bearish Elliot Wave ForecastHere is an updated bearish thread Elliot Wave Forecast.
Could be completely wrong, and will have to think about a bullish thread as well.
GLHF
VOLATILITY - $VIX - Q1-Q2 Bullish Elliot Wave ForecastJust working on the forecast model. Practice makes perfect. This is my bullish Elliot Wave Forecast.
I think bullish (for VIX) - just look at M1 for a start, but there is more investigation to be done...
However:
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” - F. Scott Fitzgerald
Always need to have multiple threads in order to survive any sort of market or economic condition!
Should we minimize damage, or is the best defense a good offense?
GLHF
$SPY can see some more pullback.SPY, case patterns that can develop in the next couple of weeks .
Bearish: Head and Shoulders pattern, resistance is around 3900.
Bearish 2: Megaphone Pattern, causing a selloff to support area 3626.
Bullish: Confluence Point at 381, confirmation for a b/o to +4000.
US Market Technicals Ahead (08 Mar – 12 Mar 2021)President Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid bill was passed by the Senate on Saturday and sent back to the House for approval which will take place on Tuesday. Investors will be closely watching the progress of this aid bill through Congress this week against a backdrop of concern over what such a large stimulus package could do to inflation and interest rates. Market participants will also be focusing on U.S. inflation figures with a report on the consumer price index due out on Wednesday and the producer price index scheduled for Friday. In Europe, the European Central Bank will hold its latest policy meeting on Thursday.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) reversed most of its losses in late Friday to end up +0.83% in a sign some bargain-hunters may have already swooped in after a bumpy week. This comes after $SPX decline over -3.55% in three consecutive session.
At the current development (since last week’s highlight on the structural breakdown of $SPX)
Price Action remains below 20DMA
Price Action remains below 50DMA
Price Action is resisted at lower band of 4 Months uptrend channel
Further increase of implied volatility since 16th Feburary 2021
$SPX has a short term establishment of Lower Highs and Lower Lowers for a short term consolidated downtrend channel of 100 points range
At the current junction, $SPX remains bullish at a mid-term higher low. Further signs of weakness in this correction will require $SPX to breach its immediate support level at 3,720.
Immediate resistance for $SPX is currently at 3,915, a breakout of its short term downtrend channel.
Stimulus: a double-edged sword?
The pandemic relief package will give a powerful boost to the economic recovery and to the stock market, but optimism has been offset by fears over rising inflation and interest rates.
Investors have taken the recent run-up in bond yields – which has propelled the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to levels not seen since before the pandemic – as a sign of potentially damaging inflation expectations.
But U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated Friday that higher long-term Treasury yields were a sign of expectations for a stronger recovery, not of increased inflation concerns.
U.S. inflation figures
Investors will be closely watching U.S. inflation figures on Wednesday and Friday amid worries over the potential implications of rising price pressures.
Last week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that even if prices jump as anticipated this spring, “I expect that we will be patient,” and not change monetary policies that need to remain supportive until the economy is “very far along the road to recovery”.
ECB meeting
Thursday’s ECB meeting is the main event for the euro zone after extended lockdowns in the first quarter. Policymakers will assess the damage to economic growth against a background of a vaccination rollout that is struggling to gain traction, particularly compared with similar efforts in the UK and the U.S.
ECB head Christine Lagarde will also announce the bank’s new quarterly forecasts at the post policy meeting press conference.
Besides the ECB meeting, the euro zone will release figures for January industrial production on Friday, which are expected to contract.
SPY Index- Market Overshot Looking at the regression line from 2009 and including the election and covid variations, the market is off the beaten path.. Plenty of room for more drops on this correction..
SPY - Bearish Downtrend, Correction Long overdue.SPY has been in need of a serious 10% correction for a very long time. Going through charts the past couple of weeks almost all stocks have wiped their 2021 gains, but indexes like SPY have yet to break the Jan low during hedge fund liquidity crises from GME and AMC. Target for this correction is 360-355, indicated by the smiley face! Green trend line is from the bottom of dot com bubble crash, blue line is from bottom of 08 crash. Ideally, in order to keep market equilibrium we should have been trading between or below these lines due to current world economic conditions. Trading above is a sign of market euphoria, aka BUBBLE.
$FNGD PT 5.50 and higher $SPY PT 366 by March 15thThe investment seeks return linked to a three times inverse leveraged participation in the daily performance of the NYSE Fang+⢠Index, total return (the âindexâ). The notes are intended to be daily trading tools for sophisticated investors to manage daily trading risks as part of an overall diversified portfolio. The index is an equal-dollar weighted index designed to represent a segment of the technology and consumer discretionary sectors consisting of highly-traded growth stocks of technology and tech-enabled companies.
$384 Support has been broken, This could get Ugly and Fast.The VIX (Fear Gauge) is picking up momentum to the upside and that is never good for the S & P 500. Intraday charts are almost done consolidating and have even begun breaking down. Seriously, we lose $380, then $374 is next, we lose $374 then its a free fall and fast down to $360. Trade Safe!
MACRO - VOLATILITY & SP500 -$VIX - The Gamma Bubble - Blood MoonThe Gamma Bubble is about to burst.
- High implied volatility on VIX... Barely moved during the market selloff on Friday. I think when indicators that usually inverse each other stop correlating with each other, investors are just completely exiting the markets.
- Over $100 Bn in bonds liquidated... Liquidity in the bond market was the only reason that I was able to remain bullish with some confidence in the equities market until now.
- Dark Pool Index indicating that institutional investors have been exiting positions since January. The last time such a movement was seen was in Feb. of last year.
- SPY with a scythe... algorithms selling off, while price being painted up for gamma exposure and theta burn:
In today's market, the lit pool markets are secondary to dark pool markets and the options market. True price discovery occurs after options have expired.
- $1.9 T Stimulus Bill passed, but I speculate it will only increase the scale of the liquidity crisis to come...
- $100 Bn~ was about the amount that the MM would need to have paid out from their exposed short positions on $GME at its previous high, when their 140% short interest via naked shorts was raided by retail investors, before Robinhood and other brokerages restricted buying. We saw exposed institutions liquidate their long positions across their market to defend their short position here.
- Congress only increased media exposure to the issue, and GME is preparing for another wave of retail impulse buying... By Elliot Wave Theory, the next impulse wave will take $GME higher than the previous high.
- Retail investors are certain to use at least some of their stimulus to fuel this movement.
- Not only GME, but AMC seems to be a likely candidate to converge with GME's price, via short squeeze + gamma squeeze. There are other highly suppressed stocks that are also rising.
- If SPY also begins a downtrend, it is the greatest candidate to gamma squeeze downwards, due to colossal implied volatility caused by the strength of the MM's algorithmic pinning.
Simply put, if SPY falls, it will fall hard and fast, and the OTM puts will fuel the short squeezes even more. This is big trouble. A liquidity crisis in the making, if the short side institutions do not unwind their positions.
- GME
- AMC
I took a hedge position, risked off, and began short positions on Feb. 10, more based on technical indicators, but I think this is more confirmation.
We will have to see if the Stimulus Bill can prolong this, but I think many are in agreement that a correction is imminent.
SPY - Buy the COVID, Sell the VaccineMarket went up during a pandemic. It might go down in a positive environment.
It doesn't get much more obvious than this.Chances are good that the charts for AMEX:SPY and TVC:SPX will continue to print repeated patterns. They have been doing so for an entire year, so I don't expect them to suddenly change trajectory. I honestly expect the market to crash within a week--if not tomorrow--judging by this fractal. And although it is not shown in this post, there is also major bearish divergence on the RSI for the weekly and monthly charts and bullish divergence on the same timeframes for the VIX . It sure will be interesting to watch. Good luck to all.
SPY is going down these next two months 🧨🔨In Elliott Wave Theory there are only two kinds of moves: Impulses , and Corrections .
We can all agree that since November, this grind up is not an impulse,
which means... that this is a correction.
Wave B's are nicknamed "The Suckers Rally"
and boy are there a lot of suckers, including myself lol.
VPVR points to a retest of last years high (big money buy zone)
>Max Pain next month is at 375
>Max Pain the month after is at 369
>It would also explain the HUGE bearish divergence since September.
I'm rolling with this count, as it is the only one that makes sense from a textbook perspective.
Todays idea is also in line with the first bearish outlook I ever gave spy on Jan 23rd.
