SPY Short: Expanding TriangleLooks like we have a distinct expanding triangle pattern which started back in 2018. My guess is today's sell-off happened because trading programs noticed the price yesterday breached the expanding triangle's resistance line. I would wait for further confirmation before trading based off of this pattern.
Do I really think that the price will drop further down than the Coronavirus crash? At this point, I find that hard to believe. Based off of my technical analysis however, it's possible. Let's see what happens!
Spyshort
Gap close in Custom ES/VIX Spread ChartThe current S&P 500 monster rallye is actually starting a correction, when divided by its volatility. TVC:VIX
Also note how the gap from march panic sales is now closed.
We are seeing increased volatility paired with higher prices, which should be seen with at least some caution...
SPY set to test support for correctionSPY had an hourly MA crossover (13 EMA/30 SMA) close to end of trading session Monday.
It is now challenging support at $349 and the 50 SMA which have converged.
If SPY breaches $349, the first target is support at $343 and the next one is the previous ATH at $338.
Double top -->reversal pattern on $SPY
Why?
14 Green days on SPY!!
One of the longest green day runs on spy in terms of Heikin Ashi candle.
Possible pullback to 331.40 area.
I am not asking for a flood to super lows, just a healthy pullback would be very reasonable.
We could bounce if stimulus talk goes well in the feds.
S&P Topped Out? Longterm Outlook & StrategiesMonthly for long-term outlook and accuracy.
Price is getting toppy and losing momentum.
Price movement up while RSI losing momentum and showing bearish divergence usually resulted in massive dumps in the past.
The 50EMA lining up perfectly with the bottom of the upward trending white channel is the make-or-break price level for me.
Either a nice bounce from there or continuation to the downside if we break below.
*Keep an eye on the USD. If it catches support on 100EMA and has a good bounce it could likely be a contributing factor to a dump in S&P.
It's interesting to see how well the DXY has respected the 100EMA as both support and resistance.
There is only about a week left in the monthly candle and a close here would increase the odds in a bounce (to at least the 50 or 21 EMAs).
S&P500 on edge of Cliff or Launch Pad? ES
Interesting point in the markets purely going off of a combination of diagonal/horizontal resistance and support lines and the 200 Day SMA. Couple these with current fundamentals and you can place your bets on direction. Keep it simple with levels to watch and you can trade this market with profit.
Levels I am watching:
$3291
$3230
$3062
$3026
Trade at your own risk and move with the market
- PennyBag
SPY - Classic Price-Volume divergence!Price moving higher on relatively low volumes where as on -ve days volumes are significantly higher which suggests distribution is going on at higher levels. Looks like smart money is taking exit at higher levels and retail is hoarding. Price action is clearly bullish but I would be cautious here. Looks like recipe for disaster.
How ES/SPY will finish up July thoughtsTo me the technicals are showing ES falling off throughout the next week. We could see continuation but think we would need some good news to turn this boat around. Vaccine was priced in already, covid cases rising, Trump taking precautions now, losing confidence in market. Maybe another stimulus could float the market a little longer. Papa Jpow is running low on ink.
In all seriousness I think SPY had a good run-up and needs to test back down and looks to me as if it's losing steam.
Possible we see sell off tomorrow going into the weekend but we will see where tonight takes us, will update when I get a chance.
Thanks!
Bearish monthly divergence on SPY Was looking at tech stocks and noticed some bearish divergence there on shorter term time frames. Checked SPY for any similarities and noticed this...
I think its notable because its a long-term chart with multiple RSI peaks since 2018. If this holds true, one possible scenario is that SPY may hit either a double top, or slightly higher all time high this fall, then go into a serious down turn.
Not saying it will happen, but its within the realm of possibility. Gotta watch the fed and what they do... News also... As its SPY we are talking about, it can certainly continue going up as it has for decades, but this is one scenario...
Note, similar, but much lesser divergence occurred on SPY between May 2007 and October 2007 (lower RSI peaks and higher price points), resulting in downturn.
SPY sell off soonMy first idea ever.
2 day of selling volume. Skew Kurt building up mode sales ahead. 1 or 2 days away.
As usual, weekend news can change this.
But, at some point, "no government can print enough money" to fake the market.
It may even go up for a tick before it happens.
All indicators are consistent.
SPX Long (But not for Long)Please do your due diligence, this is just my opinion:
Still long for now and still expecting new all time high. I expect the NDX to slowly continue its downtrend while the rest of the market catches up. I did reduce my year end target from 4k though.
Don't forget to click on the like.
BE READY for a BLOOD BATH! DONT JUMP IN THAT MARKET!Hello guys,
Technology: Tech is going crazy, coorporations are raising a lot of money without being profitable we will see a big correction in the next months.
Traditional markets: Traditional markets are super hard hit by COVID19 and we will see a big sell off from traditional investors to buy in low levels. This is an unreal push up to sell their bags.
Commodities: The petroleum fight still on and probably it will be worst and worst every year.
Forex: The fight of virtual money (crypto) and traditional currencies still there, we have a non clear future of what will happen there.
I'm really bearish with all that situations, we can see much worst index in all stocks.
The range for potential distributionAs we expected SP500 rallied before July 4th. We still don’t have any swing signals. Based on cycles and seasonal indicators we can see a choppy trading coming week or two and formation of distribution with possible upthrust near 3200. If that happens, we can expect selloff. Price action confirmation and divergence with the advanced decline line needed. For now, that is general outlook based on cycles and seasonals