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Bear Market Bottoms ExaminedSo many bulls and bears are stating their cases on social media as to whether or not a bottom is in so I thought I'd take some time today to examine what a daily bottoming process looks like using SPX. Standard & Poor's 500 was created in 1957 and since then it has gone through 9 bear markets (Defined as a GREATER THAN 20% decline on a CLOSING basis). 2022 will make 10 but at this point we do not know whether or not we have a bottom in place until we can break above the all time high of 4818.62 As you can see from the below charts, with the exception of Oct 1987; all the bottoms have large & steady "thrusts" IMMEDIATELY after the lows were made that held the following re-tracements IMMEDIATELY: .382 - 67% (6 out 9 bottoms- 2009, 2002, 1982, 1974,1966, 1962) .50 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms-2020) .618 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms- 1970) < .618 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms-1987) Our current bottom could NOT hold the .618 immediately after the low was made therefore it falls into the category of the 1987 exception/rare case. The strongest bull cases show a thrust and then hold of a .382 re-tracement. I'm using a very basic bar chart with black bars to cut down the noise of everything, inserting a Fib Re-tracement, drawing the immediate thrust and adding the number of trading days it took to get above the last lower high. June 1962 (Approx decline: 27%) Oct 1966 (Approx decline: 22%) May 1970 (Approx decline: 33%) Oct 1974 (Approx decline: 48%) Aug 1982 (Approx decline: 27%) Oct 1987 (Approx decline: 33%) Oct 2002 (Approx decline: 47%) March 2009 (Approx decline: 56%) March 2020 (Approx decline: 32%) After looking over all these bottoms I must say the bears do present a strong case that the bottom is not yet in place. IMO, the only similar chart from a bulls perspective is the May 1970 case as it does resemble the "look" of our current bottom however look at how long it took to get above the last lower high. I hope you enjoyed this post...at a minimum it gives me one post that goes back in time to look at the daily charts of all 9 SPX bear market bottoms to analyze the look and feel of a bear market bottom since they happen so infrequently!
SP:SPX
by Vixtine
86
Whenever this occurs, it signals the bottom of the market.Whenever this occurs, it signals the bottom of the market. In this weekly chart, the blue line represents the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the black line represents the 100 SMA. As we can see the 50 has inverted the 100. Whenever the 50 crosses below the 100 on the weekly chart and then price moves above the 50, the market doesn't set a new low until a new high is established this has happened 13 times in the past (now the 14th time). The only exception to this was in March of 2002, where the market failed to hold three consecutive weeks above the 50 SMA. If you are wondering, last weeks close marked three consecutive weeks above the 50 SMA, which now means we have a greater than 92% chance that the market has indeed bottomed. To summarize This has happened 13 times in the recorded chart data we have and 12 out of those times the market had bottomed. 12 times out of the 12 times we had closed above the 50 for three consecutive weeks the market had bottomed. Right now we are in the 14th time and we have closed 3 consecutive weeks above the 50SMA. If we set a new low before a new high, this will be the first time ever after closing three weeks above the 50 SMA I have presented the information for all the times this has happened in history, and you can also verify it. In one of my previous ideas, I mentioned we were back testing a Bullish Megaphone pattern and that we should hold there, which we have done since then (see the link below)." Please like if you find it useful Please note this is not a financial advice.
SP:SPX
by BlackisKing
58
Better labour market is not equal better indices this time S&PFollowing last week's release of stronger-than-expected economic data, investors are recalibrating their expectations concerning aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. The market sentiment is shifting, with investors scaling back their anticipation of imminent rate cuts. This change in perception is amplified by the surge in bond yields, indicating a rising consensus among institutional traders to build short positions. The rationale behind these actions lies in the growing belief that the Fed might maintain its current restrictive policy stance for a longer duration than initially anticipated. This shift is underpinned by the robust health of the labor market, as evidenced by declining unemployment rates, diminishing jobless claims, and notably higher Non-Farm Payrolls reported last week. The entry level aligns favorably for execution, especially just before the commencement of the London session. Two Take Profit (TP) levels have been identified for this trade. The initial TP is strategically positioned at the upcoming 4-hour (4H) support zone, reflecting a prudent approach to secure early gains. For a more assertive yet realistic approach, the second TP is set at the 200-day Moving Average (200MA) on the Daily time frame (TF). Historical backtesting indicates a tendency for the market to approach or touch the 200MA during anticipated drops similar to the current market scenario. This second TP level, although more aggressive, presents a viable opportunity based on historical trends. Comment your opinion below . . .
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Elite_Forex
$SPY top at $472-474 and to bottom below $300If you've been following my ideas over the last few weeks, you'll know that I have a macro bearish view going into next year. I think the market is setup to drop 30-40%+. I know everyone is calling for new highs (Tom Lee, looking at you), but it's not going to happen IMO. We're not in a bull market, this is still just a bullish bounce within a bear trend. I'm not sure what the fundamental catalyst will be that will bring markets down so much... it's hard to ever know before it happens, but there will be something in Q1 that will be very negative for markets. However, until then, I think we have a little bit more upside in SPY as I shared in this analysis (short term view). Essentially, I think we have one more move higher to about $472-$474 and then I think we'll top and start moving lower. I've taken short term calls to express this view w/ expiration 12/29, and after some of the names I bought hit their target, I will start buying long term puts with expirations out to 3/18 and 6/21 2024. Let's see if this plays out over the coming weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
8
🚀⤴️⤴️GOLD FULLBACK 2100)⏫️hello trader’s what do you think about gold) gold fullbacks support levels 2047) Gold if breakoutdown and this weekend looks better news CPI trader’s 2047) support levels and gold mowing fullback 2100)resistance levels)my position 2047) lounges 2100) key levels 2080 key levels 2090 key levels 2100 Gold finished the year at $2,063 an ounce, climbing more than 13% in 2023 for its first annual gain in three years, and logging a new record high within the year mostly supported by expectations that the major central banks will start cutting interest rates early next year. After implementing an aggressive rate-hiking cycle that started in early 2022, the US Federal Reserve is now expected to begin easing as soon as next March amid signs that inflation in the US is cooling. Moreover, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of a prolonged war in Gaza spurred safe-haven demand for gold.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
Down only from here on out. $SPY to bottom below $300I've been waiting for this moment for the past two years. Over the next week or so, I expect a high to be put in on the stock market at ~$441-$446, and then the market will be in down only mode for the next 6 months to a year. I don't take joy in seeing the market fall, but from a trading perspective these opportunities only happen once every 10-15 years and there's lots of money that can be made on the downside. Markets fall faster than they rise, and I think the next 6 months will be painful. So sharing this as a warning for those long-only investors (to take some profit or sit in cash) and as an opportunity for those that feel comfortable shorting. What would change my mind is a move above $446 and flipping that level as support. But otherwise, we will move down from here. Everyone expects rates to come down and thinks that will pump up the market, but I have the opposite view. I think rates will fall because they'll need to be cut after a market wide crisis. Technically, we've formed a monthly lower high already and we've been consolidating in a tight range, I think once we retest the highs, we'll confirm this last level as resistance and then the market will fall much faster than the last few months and faster than it did last year. I expect the bottom to be put in sometime between now and October of next year (2024) at $271. I've marked off key levels of support and resistance on the chart. In July I traded the top: But from here on out, I think the bottom drops out of the market. Hence why I'm sharing this now. Key dates on the chart June 17, July 1, Sep 23. Those are all pivot dates on the weekly timeframe where it's an important time to watch for price action. Good luck trading this next year.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
33
$SPY Weekly Price TargetsBased off Price Action, the next 2 weeks will determine if we will see new ATH or fill previous Order Blocks (OB). Currently, we are in an Uptrend with the continuation from Oct. 10th ~$360 Demand. We had a clean break through the OB created on the week of Aug. 22nd. Which lead us to fill the Apr. 4th OB. We could potentially see a continuation to ATH or a pullback to the $437 FVG with a reversal towards ATH. If we fail to break through the current OB or the previous ATH we could see a sell off leading to the closing of previous OB's on, Mar. 13th ~$386 & Oct. 10th ~360.
AMEX:SPY
by Kyle_Kinnaird
S&P Pull BackNew update. It seems like markets have found themselves face to face with reality. The bear market rally seems to have run out of steam due to the amounting economic and inflationary data. Simply put, I do not think markets can rally from here, based on: RSI overbought on 1W MACD Crossed on 1W Food prices are at 18 moth highs according to UN. Fuel prices are back near record highs Rent prices are back at record highs according to Redfin and Zillow Home Prices are heading higher according to Case Shiller Index Vehicle prices remain high, making a slight gain last month according to FRED and MUI Housing affordability is at a multi-decade low (1980s) With this data in mind, I can't imagine how the Fed will be able to hide this new inflation in future CPI/PPI reports. It's impossible. Just because their official report says inflation is falling, it doesn't make it a reality. The debt to savings ratio in America is about the worst on record, which means people are paying more for the same items they used to buy because prices are rising and there is nothing they can do to stop it. Some people believe unicorns are real, but that doesn't mean they're real. Markets have risen for the last 4 consecutive months without pause, and continually since Oct 2022 lows based on the idea that inflation is "easing" and that the Fed will reverse course. Higher interest rates are good, because it promotes savings with higher yields. It also promotes paying off debt and less leveraging by Americans. The problem with 0% interest is that it creates artificial spending growth, which in fact is nothing more than a bubble. We saw the mad rush to buy cars and homes in 2021 with people overpaying on over priced homes and cars. Now? They're starting to sweat, especially those who bought vehicles, because 2 years later, they still owe more than MSRP and dealers won't buy them for near MSRP. Home buying sentiment is the worst in 23 years according to CNBC (keep in mind, that's worse than 2008-09). Keep watching.. let's see how this farce of a market plays out. Who knows, they may continue to fudge numbers and markets may reverse and rally again, but everyone knows that prices everywhere are higher, so it matters not if the "official" numbers are low. You feel it at the pump, grocery store, and everywhere else. There was no easing. #SPX CBOE:SPX
SP:SPXShort
by WorldEconomics
3
S&P 500 Preferred Short: Better Risk-RewardToday I want to discuss about the bull and bear cases for S&P and introduce the fractal concept Bull case: Cup with a handle uptrend can be considered 1-2-3 wave and recent downmove as 4th wave it is a possibility because wave 4 is in wave 1's terrority, similar to the big downtrend. But this can also be considered a leading diagonal downtrend sub-wave 5 ended on uptrend wave 1 Bear case: Fractal retracement % is very close both retracements reached peak of wave 2 of same degree Preferred Elliott Wave Counts Risk-reward is better on the short side now speed of upmove
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by sngyuchao
The Expected Bounce was on Queue. Tomorrow We Drop.Traders, We have been batting 1000 lately when it comes to the SPY. Might as well make another bold prediction. It would seem that the greatest probability of price action is outlined in the chart. An inverse H&S is forming and the right shoulder has yet to start. I predicted the target down from the last H&S pattern to be 410. That was hit, almost to the dollar. I then predicted a huge bounce. We have that now. In fact, 7 days of green candles! Amazing. I even predicted the timing of the bounce. The charts gave me all of this data. I just had to read it correctly. Now, the chart is telling me that it's time for a bit of a pause. If correct, we should see the right shoulder from that inverse H&S drawn now begin to form. If we're lucky we stay in my outlined green channel by using that 200 day ma near the bottom of the channel as support. Blowoff top underway! LFG! Stew
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
SPX500 ShortThe SPX is showing 4 variables that suggest the price will drop. In our trading strategy, when an asset that is showing 4 variables in the same direction, we take the trade. As always the SL is one that as of right now makes sense, we will update if something changes. The 4 edges (Variables) that suggest downside: 1. Confirmation of old channel as resistance. 2. Confirmation of 2021 high as resistance after price failed to return above it. 3. Bearish divergence on the MacD. 4. A bearish dark cloud cover/ piercing line candlestick formation (Confirmed with a negative close today). Not to mention the asset retraced 61.8% to its recent high from low putting it in the golden zone. We can never say an asset WILL go in a specific direction. We just look for scenarios where, based on researched methods, an asset has a higher probability of going in a direction. When multiple edges line up, we take the trade. This is one of those cases.
BLACKBULL:US500.FShort
by SynergyTradingSetups
2
$SPY Market top playing outAs I've mentioned in my previous analysis, I believe we're at a market top (Despite Tom Lee calling for new highs). There's nothing positive for markets looking forward, therefore I think markets will finally price in all of the raise hikes and the poor economy. I think we may see one more high, however, if we do, I believe it'll result in a rug pull. I think the FOMC meeting tomorrow will largely be bullish for markets, but then after that, Thursday, Friday or into early next week, we'll see the market reverse. I'm looking for the move to hit the targets laid out on the charts. $412, $397 or $393 as the bottom. With hindsight, I think the move will mark the top of the market and we'll continue much lower. Bear market continuation targets shared here. Let's see if it plays out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
4