Spyshort
SPX500 ShortThe SPX is showing 4 variables that suggest the price will drop.
In our trading strategy, when an asset that is showing 4 variables in the same direction, we take the trade. As always the SL is one that as of right now makes sense, we will update if something changes.
The 4 edges (Variables) that suggest downside:
1. Confirmation of old channel as resistance.
2. Confirmation of 2021 high as resistance after price failed to return above it.
3. Bearish divergence on the MacD.
4. A bearish dark cloud cover/ piercing line candlestick formation (Confirmed with a negative close today).
Not to mention the asset retraced 61.8% to its recent high from low putting it in the golden zone.
We can never say an asset WILL go in a specific direction. We just look for scenarios where, based on researched methods, an asset has a higher probability of going in a direction. When multiple edges line up, we take the trade. This is one of those cases.
10/31/23 Bullish Day- Outlook for WeekCME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY SP:SPX CME_MINI:ES2! CBOE:XSP
Closed my spreads at 100% today. Another successful day if you read some of my Minds on these symbols. The market is looking for higher prices for the rest of the week short term.
Daily targets: 420-422
See you soon traders.
S&P 500 ShortFollowing my previous S&P 500 post.
Price has broken through the support level.
Depending on how Mondays closing candle looks I am debating entering a short position. If we have above average selling volume and a strong closing candle I will take a small short position and add if price continues to fall. Low risk and potential high reward.
$SPY Market top playing outAs I've mentioned in my previous analysis, I believe we're at a market top (Despite Tom Lee calling for new highs).
There's nothing positive for markets looking forward, therefore I think markets will finally price in all of the raise hikes and the poor economy.
I think we may see one more high, however, if we do, I believe it'll result in a rug pull. I think the FOMC meeting tomorrow will largely be bullish for markets, but then after that, Thursday, Friday or into early next week, we'll see the market reverse.
I'm looking for the move to hit the targets laid out on the charts.
$412, $397 or $393 as the bottom. With hindsight, I think the move will mark the top of the market and we'll continue much lower. Bear market continuation targets shared here.
Let's see if it plays out.
SPY 2 Bearish Scenarios
1. Less Bearish Scenario
We have a 1-2 1-2 with the impulse wave 3 down in progress or still to come.
The difference between the 2 scenarios is the higher timeframe.
In this less bearish scenario, this move down is part of the primary wave C in the correction that started Jan 22.
Once is done a new cycle will begin.
2. Bearish scenario
In the bearish scenario, this move down is part of the primary wave 3 and not wave C.
We are still in the 1-2 1-2 waves down with minor wave 3 yet to come. All of these waves are part of the primary wave 3 in the correction that started on January 22.
Are you berish? What other alternate scenarios do you see?
Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational and educational purpose and does not serve as financial advice.
SPY Short Prediction - 10/15/2023Unqualified prediction: SPY looks to be rolling over on the 1hr with multiple historical zones of support and resistance overlapping in a concentrated range (specified in-chart.) This in a TA sense would indicate a potential fight between buyers and sellers for control of price action, but macroeconomic fundamentals and geopolitical concerns, as well as ER volatility make for turbulent waters with this amateur analyst biased towards the downside.
ES Bull Flagging into 4400ES Hourly Analysis - Bull Flagging into 4400
Price action was quite choppy today and was hard to read. When that happens, it's best to just step away and let price paint a picture for you over a period of time until the direction is clear. That is exactly what ES has started to do. On the 2-5 minute chart this looks like a mess, on the hourly, it's painted a beautiful picture. It is showing us that ES can not close 4400 and that any time it dips below, buyers keep stepping in.
4400 has become the battle field. We are basing/consolidating for a big move, which is expected due to this being a volatile week. While we are in a volatile week once earnings start to report, and with current world news, don't swing for the fences when entering trades. Keep it logical.
Supports: 4400, 4390, 4375.
Resistance: 4410, 4415, 4425.
Time for Pain $SPYAMEX:SPY is now at its support on the Weekly Chart. This support, around the $420 level, is the last major support before we would reach the next target (Pink Box).
The Pink Box is the Median Line of the Downwards facing Orange Pitchfork. Alan Andrew's states that 'price has an 80% chance of reaching the latest median line'. In order to achieve that 80% rule, and to create a double bottom, that point would be around the beginning of 2024 and the $350 price point.
IF this scenario were to play out (Bonds are crashing as I type this up), then we would see about a ~15-20% Selloff.. And that is just to the median line. There is also a 35% chance that we go FURTHER beyond that median line (if achieved).
Buckle up.
TESLA Approaching right shoulder? Based on what I see, tesla is approaching the right side of the head and shoulder. and roughly gauging the current economic uncertainty and considering tesla's correlation to the market. I think tesla has high probability of reversing down towards 245 by the end of this week.
SPY 30th Sep,2023 WEEKLYThis is my weekly analysis for SPY.I have clearly explained what price is willing to do and trust me there is no rush to push trades on yourself. Just wait for the right opportunity.
If you have any doubts feel free to shoot me a text.
NOTE: STAY AWAY IF YOU ARE NOT SURE ABOUT THE MARKET
SPX SPY in No Mans Land, Never seen before in market historyThis is a weekly chart and I meant to share this on Friday; but forgot. Blue vertical lines are the paths from previous bear market lows to new all time highs, over-layed to the bottom of October 2022. Red vertical lines are the bear market paths from all time highs to bear market lows, over-layed to the high of January 2022.
As you can see we are no longer following the path of the "new" bull markets, and we we deviated away from bear market paths... well a while ago. So should we have been on a bear market path this whole time, but the stimulus from Inflation Reduction Act and Chips Act helped support the market for just a short period of time?!?!? Well we will find out. I just know this is truly a historic pattern.