$SPY 3/15/24 Continued Bearish MACD divergence continuing to play out with a breakdown of wedge trend line. We saw the 508 target get hit today and still face layers of resistance overhead (512ish-515ish-518ATH) ....AND there is a gap still to be filled below (501ish-497ish). If we're going to make another respectable run at ATH then we need to fill the gap and let this MACD divergence play out. If you push up now, you still face the bearish MACD divergence on the daily (and longer hourly charts) with an unfilled gap below 500. We know SPY loves whole numbers and we've seen how it's reacted and responded to the 500 price level in the past. I expect it to have the same magnetism now as it did before.
As always, assume nothing and remove your bias. Let the chart lead the way.
For now, this is what I'm seeing.
Spyshort
SPY Correction Coming?Hello everyone!
First two new charts for 2024. Another year another upside logic market. We're breaking ATH with continually decaying economic data, new banking troubles, new wars, and an election year and markets ignore it all. It's a Fed controlled market so mysterious!?
Anyhow, in this chart I did a vague not so accurate EW that began Jan 2022 that bottomed in Oct 2022 which basically bounced off the Feb 2020 highs which pushed us into this new bull market. We finally broke the ATH for the S&P today with 5015ish, which makes me believe we should soon see a corrective wave hit.
The first support will be early Jan support of 475. If this stays within this channel, we should see the correction over (C) at the same level as (2) of the bear market of 2022 which is March/April of 455ish giving us about a 10% correction.
Now, this is all IF markets go as planned and there are no external factors influencing selling such as a larger scale geopolitical war, banking failures and so on. This is based off a market that is going at the current pace.
That being said, I do see a major geopolitical event that will shake markets to their core but until then, we base our market moves on the Feds dovish nonsense.
Technicals:
- RSI, MACD are about peaked.
- VIX is at critical levels
S&P 500 at Strong Resistance, Short Trade Setup for SPXSSPY is trading at a key resistance level, the white resistance line that has consistently provided strong rejections for the S&P 500. I am taking a short trade setup by going long on SPXS.
Price targets:
- Red support zone between $469 and $477
- Red trendline around $433 (price increases over time since the trendline is sloped upwards).
SPY to $460Overview
Utilizing trading patterns and consistencies between several technical indicators, I believe the equity market will begin to unload soon as traders collect their profits from the recent rally and prepare for the next FOMC meeting on 19-20 March.
Trading Patterns
SPY is currently undergoing a rising wedge which is a bearish trading pattern. Within the wedge, I outlined an impulse wave pattern which shows SPY at what may be the peak of the third wave. Rising share price on dwindling volume, in addition to divergences spotted on the RSI, MFI, and MACD, lead me to confidently believe a dip to around $460 is approaching.
Price Target
I used the support and resistance lines of the macro rising wedge to determine the paths of the impulse waves, assuming their troughs and crests will reach the respective lines. Presuming the rules of impulse waves hold true then the fourth wave cannot end pass the crest of wave one, which falls in line with the 50% retracement level of the third wave (blue and red Fibonacci tools). This level rests at a share price near $460.
Utilizing a larger Fibonacci tool to encompass the entire rising wedge and a projected fifth wave crest as 100%, the $460 share price is around the 61.8% Fibonacci level (when used in the uptrend).
Supporting Technical Indicators
The MACD shows a divergence as well as an approaching cross over its signal line from above.
While not as prominent as MACD, the RSI also shows a divergence between the share price and peaks within the RSI oscillator. I've highlighted the divergence by placing a horizontal line at the end of the first peak. It is also reflecting overbought signals.
The MFI shows a sharp negative slope but the SPY share price is still rising. This divergence, aligned with the signals of the other two indicators, suggests the share price may be about to drop.
$VIX Possible Breakout? $VIX Tightest Base since 2018Weekly Chart from COVID Highs
Weekly Chart has yet to break out the trend line (green bar) from COVID Highs
The bottom appears to be getting tight and has consolidated sideways for weeks
June - September 2023 the chart was basing which rallied 10 points in the end of September
The base in June - Sept was not as tight as the chart is showing now
This is even with AMEX:SPY continuing to increase but VIX holding it's range (KEY)
Weekly chart showing a rounding bottom
Zoomed-In Weekly Chart
First we would like to see the weekly break the short term white trend line
To break to the upside into the green downtrend line from COVID Highs we would need VIX weekly to break through and close above $15.75
High chance if it breaks $15.75 we will hit the top line of the downtrend which the price will depend on when this break will happen
We could see highs of TVC:VIX to $17-$18 if breaks $15.75
"SPY Peaks: Signs Point to Market Reaching Pinnacle"SPY ETF Approaching Critical Resistance Amid Bearish Signals
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has been a focal point for investors seeking exposure to the broader equity market. However, recent indicators suggest a potential shift in sentiment as the ETF nears significant resistance levels, hinting at a looming bearish turn.
As of late, SPY has been on a notable uptrend, consistently climbing towards one-year high resistance levels. This trajectory has garnered attention from investors eyeing the possibility of continued gains. Yet, caution flags are waving as the ETF approaches the $500 to $520 range, projected to materialize by March or April of 2024.
Market analysts and technicians are closely monitoring this critical juncture, as historical data indicates a propensity for price rejection and subsequent correction around such resistance zones. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the confluence of technical factors underscores the significance of this price range.
One factor contributing to the bearish sentiment is the overextension of the current rally. With the market experiencing an extended period of growth, there is growing concern about unsustainable valuations and the potential for a market pullback. Additionally, macroeconomic uncertainties, including inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions, further amplify the apprehension among investors.
Moreover, sentiment indicators such as the fear and greed index are signaling heightened investor optimism, often considered a contrarian indicator suggesting potential market reversals. As greed eclipses fear, complacency may set in, leaving the market vulnerable to downside risks.
Investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, particularly during pivotal moments such as approaching resistance levels. The psychological barrier of reaching a milestone price range can trigger profit-taking among investors, leading to selling pressure and downward price momentum.
Institutional investors, who often have the firepower to influence market movements, may also opt to rebalance their portfolios in anticipation of market headwinds. As such, increased selling activity from institutional players could exacerbate the downward pressure on SPY and the broader market indices.
While the outlook remains uncertain, prudent investors are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor developments in the coming weeks. Key technical levels and market indicators will offer valuable insights into the potential direction of SPY and the broader market.
In conclusion, as the SPY ETF approaches critical resistance levels amidst bearish signals, investors brace for a possible shift in market sentiment. With the $500 to $520 range looming ahead, caution is warranted as historical precedents and technical indicators point to the potential for a corrective phase. Vigilance and adaptability will be essential for navigating the evolving market landscape in the months ahead.
NVDA SHORT/PUT OPPORTUNITY Im shorting NVDA here because of the current seasonal anamoly. NVDA was supposed to fall this time of the year usually tracking 20 year historical data and the options chain is skewed to the call side.
PE ratio is insane at these levels
Our Ai forecast tool has turned bearish
Trade Idea : NVDA 640 PUT MARCH EXPIRY SL 640
Sizable short selling opportunity in SPXFollowing our previous successful profit-taking advice for the SPX long position at 4900, AstroDunia's market timing model, informed by financial astrology, has identified a compelling short-term selling opportunity.
Recommendation:
Enter a short position in SPX (Cash) at current market price (CMP) of 4900 and an additional short position at 4935.
Set a stop-loss order at 4952 to manage risk.
Target potential downside towards 4700 and below.
Rationale:
Our proprietary market timing model, which incorporates insights from financial astrology, has identified a confluence of factors suggesting a potential decline in the SPX.
Bear Market Bottoms ExaminedSo many bulls and bears are stating their cases on social media as to whether or not a bottom is in so I thought I'd take some time today to examine what a daily bottoming process looks like using SPX.
Standard & Poor's 500 was created in 1957 and since then it has gone through 9 bear markets (Defined as a GREATER THAN 20% decline on a CLOSING basis). 2022 will make 10 but at this point we do not know whether or not we have a bottom in place until we can break above the all time high of 4818.62
As you can see from the below charts, with the exception of Oct 1987; all the bottoms have large & steady "thrusts" IMMEDIATELY after the lows were made that held the following re-tracements IMMEDIATELY:
.382 - 67% (6 out 9 bottoms- 2009, 2002, 1982, 1974,1966, 1962)
.50 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms-2020)
.618 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms- 1970)
< .618 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms-1987)
Our current bottom could NOT hold the .618 immediately after the low was made therefore it falls into the category of the 1987 exception/rare case. The strongest bull cases show a thrust and then hold of a .382 re-tracement.
I'm using a very basic bar chart with black bars to cut down the noise of everything, inserting a Fib Re-tracement, drawing the immediate thrust and adding the number of trading days it took to get above the last lower high.
June 1962 (Approx decline: 27%)
Oct 1966 (Approx decline: 22%)
May 1970 (Approx decline: 33%)
Oct 1974 (Approx decline: 48%)
Aug 1982 (Approx decline: 27%)
Oct 1987 (Approx decline: 33%)
Oct 2002 (Approx decline: 47%)
March 2009 (Approx decline: 56%)
March 2020 (Approx decline: 32%)
After looking over all these bottoms I must say the bears do present a strong case that the bottom is not yet in place. IMO, the only similar chart from a bulls perspective is the May 1970 case as it does resemble the "look" of our current bottom however look at how long it took to get above the last lower high.
I hope you enjoyed this post...at a minimum it gives me one post that goes back in time to look at the daily charts of all 9 SPX bear market bottoms to analyze the look and feel of a bear market bottom since they happen so infrequently!
Whenever this occurs, it signals the bottom of the market.Whenever this occurs, it signals the bottom of the market.
In this weekly chart, the blue line represents the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the black line represents the 100 SMA. As we can see the 50 has inverted the 100. Whenever the 50 crosses below the 100 on the weekly chart and then price moves above the 50, the market doesn't set a new low until a new high is established this has happened 13 times in the past (now the 14th time). The only exception to this was in March of 2002, where the market failed to hold three consecutive weeks above the 50 SMA. If you are wondering, last weeks close marked three consecutive weeks above the 50 SMA, which now means we have a greater than 92% chance that the market has indeed bottomed.
To summarize
This has happened 13 times in the recorded chart data we have and 12 out of those times the market had bottomed.
12 times out of the 12 times we had closed above the 50 for three consecutive weeks the market had bottomed.
Right now we are in the 14th time and we have closed 3 consecutive weeks above the 50SMA. If we set a new low before a new high, this will be the first time ever after closing three weeks above the 50 SMA
I have presented the information for all the times this has happened in history, and you can also verify it. In one of my previous ideas, I mentioned we were back testing a Bullish Megaphone pattern and that we should hold there, which we have done since then (see the link below)."
Please like if you find it useful
Please note this is not a financial advice.
Pivotal week for SPXThe SPX is getting close to a major resistance that has rejected it several times since we got under it. Those who have seen my other ideas know that I am bullish on the market and I do expect us to break the resistance to the upside. If you want to know why I am bullish, see the ideas linked below. Obviously it would be bearish if we get rejected here again.
Please do your DD as this is not a financial advice.
Please like.
SPY short / support identificationPossible trajectory of SPY for the month of January. Trends look similar to price action from July to Nov but on a smaller scale (about 1/3). MA action similar as well (9, 20, 50; dark blue, light blue, yellow). Based on that scaling I drew a projected path for the price action. Support around $458 near the end of January seems possible.
Better labour market is not equal better indices this time S&PFollowing last week's release of stronger-than-expected economic data, investors are recalibrating their expectations concerning aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. The market sentiment is shifting, with investors scaling back their anticipation of imminent rate cuts. This change in perception is amplified by the surge in bond yields, indicating a rising consensus among institutional traders to build short positions.
The rationale behind these actions lies in the growing belief that the Fed might maintain its current restrictive policy stance for a longer duration than initially anticipated. This shift is underpinned by the robust health of the labor market, as evidenced by declining unemployment rates, diminishing jobless claims, and notably higher Non-Farm Payrolls reported last week.
The entry level aligns favorably for execution, especially just before the commencement of the London session. Two Take Profit (TP) levels have been identified for this trade. The initial TP is strategically positioned at the upcoming 4-hour (4H) support zone, reflecting a prudent approach to secure early gains.
For a more assertive yet realistic approach, the second TP is set at the 200-day Moving Average (200MA) on the Daily time frame (TF). Historical backtesting indicates a tendency for the market to approach or touch the 200MA during anticipated drops similar to the current market scenario. This second TP level, although more aggressive, presents a viable opportunity based on historical trends.
Comment your opinion below
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$SPY top at $472-474 and to bottom below $300If you've been following my ideas over the last few weeks, you'll know that I have a macro bearish view going into next year. I think the market is setup to drop 30-40%+.
I know everyone is calling for new highs (Tom Lee, looking at you), but it's not going to happen IMO. We're not in a bull market, this is still just a bullish bounce within a bear trend.
I'm not sure what the fundamental catalyst will be that will bring markets down so much... it's hard to ever know before it happens, but there will be something in Q1 that will be very negative for markets.
However, until then, I think we have a little bit more upside in SPY as I shared in this analysis (short term view). Essentially, I think we have one more move higher to about $472-$474 and then I think we'll top and start moving lower. I've taken short term calls to express this view w/ expiration 12/29, and after some of the names I bought hit their target, I will start buying long term puts with expirations out to 3/18 and 6/21 2024.
Let's see if this plays out over the coming weeks.
🚀⤴️⤴️GOLD FULLBACK 2100)⏫️hello trader’s what do you think about gold)
gold fullbacks support levels 2047)
Gold if breakoutdown and this weekend looks better news CPI trader’s 2047) support levels and gold mowing fullback 2100)resistance levels)my position 2047) lounges 2100)
key levels 2080
key levels 2090
key levels 2100
Gold finished the year at $2,063 an ounce, climbing more than 13% in 2023 for its first annual gain in three years, and logging a new record high within the year mostly supported by expectations that the major central banks will start cutting interest rates early next year.
After implementing an aggressive rate-hiking cycle that started in early 2022, the US Federal Reserve is now expected to begin easing as soon as next March amid signs that inflation in the US is cooling.
Moreover, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of a prolonged war in Gaza spurred safe-haven demand for gold.
S&P sinister symmetryWhile not a reason to be short stocks on its own, there is quite a bit of symmetry on the S&P 500 chart since 2021 that could be setting up for a sharp leg downward. This is not a high confidence prediction, just a visually interesting observation that made me stop to think. Happy New Year everybody! 🤪