Spyshort
Blow off top on SPY?Looks like the setup of a classic blow off top chart pattern. Might see new lows around August and then continue the downtrend after a short relief rally. Let's see what happens!
Next Week's OutlookVery strong finish this week, but I'm leaning toward the bearish outlook below 2980. Running into the 200ma on the Daily, and the 20ma on the weekly. I expect a below the level we broke into the week's close. Then I will take a short off a retest of that level.
Fundementals, The Election, The Fed, Bonds and the ProphecySo Everyone is bearish and for good reason; Unemployment and fundamentals loom over this market but everyone forgets the Bond market and the FED who are pushed by the republicans and Donald Trump, above anyone else, to push the stock market higher. They are pushing the bond guys to buy this market and are printing all the cash necessary to keep it going (stimulus checks and loans). There is also that Simpson's prophesy looming in the background about how DT is going to bankrupt the US which may actually play out. So what if this is how it happens because what's the alternative, the stock market does what the least likely is going to happen and right now it either goes sideways forever or it goes up. Going down with all this cash floating around seems unlikely but it can happen and many bears have tried believe me. So I see a stock market bubble forming, at least for a short period of time. I do see another crash but only after things actually look grim again like a second big wave in November but right now it is fated to keep going up because of these factors in play.
PS: Maybe this is the Top.
SPY BEARISH DIVERGANCE INDICATORSNothing to see here. Just keep buying stocks and ignore the news if possible.
SPX - Out of Gas or Full Tank? 20/50/200MA or Topped Out?SPX is in a VERY interesting spot here. Be careful trading and always check S&P pre market and news before entering new trades.
Quickpost: SPY at the Weekly Bollinger BaselineThe Bollingerband traditionally has a lookback of 20 periods, and that coincides with a common moving average length of 20 (sometimes 21). SPY price action has gapped up and stopped right at that baseline, or the 20W SMA. This is very much a do or die circumstance for the market. If the baseline asserts itself as resistance we can expect a very painful recession. If somehow the baseline is confirmed as support we have the much promiced V shape recovery
Below the prices action we have the OBV & EMAS. The OBV has been consolidating below the 100W, which isn't a good sign for the bulls, and the 20W is looking like it will cross the 100W bearishly. This is an extra-ordinarily bearish set of circumstances to play out.
SPX Red day tomorrow Just a theory but the last three days have been a pump before a huge drop tomorrow.
Pump on 8 healthy people out of 45 having more antibodies.
Trump through Saudi Arabia pump.
Pump from Pastor Powell during his 60 minute interview on Sunday.
"They" knew market would drop during/after G7 meeting tomorrow and Powell testifying in front of the Senate. The fed report on Friday was horrifically ominous, discussing bank runs and bank bankruptcies, real estate and asset prices plummeting suddenly and severely, etc and the U.S. entering a deep and severe depression. Powell on 60 minutes Sunday was pure market psychology manipulation, i.e. complete bullshit. Total contradiction to the 78 page report published Friday after market close. Those same banks that are in deep trouble led this rally, along with floating death trap cruise lines, and ghost airlines.
To throw in some TA, looks like a back test of the rising channel we broke out of a last Tuesday.
We'll see. Maybe needs to touch the line early before falling this week. Targets, same as they've always been. Retesting March lows.
Friday ES Long Reaches Objective; Sell Target is closeES reaches it's 2888.75 objective from the 2812 long on Friday morning. Usually, this is where it would turn, however, Wall Street needs it's fill up here too. And, the end of the channel is in sight. If we continue up, look to 2925 level to sell. It may take some time to do that, similar to other tops. At some point, this whole move up will need to be defended by the Bulls at their 50%-61.8% lines. There will be a sell here that will be good for 60 points minimum OR ALOT MORE. Be patient.
Simplifing things in SP500 I don't know much, but im watching a bearish pressure in the oscilator. It seems a next week to the downside.
This week we end bellow the poing of Equilibrium at the Dialy/1HThe ultimate oscilator (By Larry Williams) shows me a slightly bearish hidden divergence at the 1H and we end the week bellow the clossest equilibrium point between 2869 - 2875 (1H + 4H Kumo's). I put an area line to watch the lower lows price more closely with the vertical lines but the clear thing is, the bulls never break the 2869 - 2875 to the upside. Finally the 4H chart shows the price bellow the Kumo so the preferent direction it's to the down side. For the long side, the D chart shows a strong Kumo support but be aware because the rising wedge was broken. The chaos is here.
El último oscilador (de Larry Williams) me muestra una divergencia oculta ligeramente bajista en la 1H y terminamos la semana debajo del punto de equilibrio más cercano entre 2869 - 2875 (1H + 4H Kumo's). Puse una línea de área para observar el precio de los mínimos más bajos más de cerca con las líneas verticales, pero lo claro es que los toros nunca rompen el 2869 - 2875 al alza. Finalmente, el gráfico 4H muestra el precio debajo del Kumo, por lo que la dirección preferida es hacia el lado negativo. Para el lado largo, el gráfico D muestra un fuerte soporte de Kumo, pero tenga en cuenta que la cuña ascendente se rompió. El caos está aquí.
Time to Short ES and YMMarket needed to rally today so that we can get short setups. We have two halfway back short setups here. Selling off from the Weekly. But, Trend changes require this usually require the larger HWB. Basically, I am a seller up here in the sell zone between 2856 - 2883.
How go the transports, so goes the marketcomparing 45min chart of SPY and IYT...volume profile gives some support as to why the IYT is not recovering. there is no volume support at current prices, and holders mainly bought much higher...
SPY...it is at the point of supply...failed to get above it and is now grinding in a narrow range as the volume at this level fights for supremacy...I think the straight volume trend still in decline, compared to the increasing volume in the IYT shows that the price has not quite hit the stops or trigger point on SPY.
As the economic reality sets in, another month of missed payments, 2 looming bankruptcies (Hertz, JCrew), and unemployment on thursday...I'd expect some risk off trades ahead of the numbers, but with the fiscal stimulus fire hose on full blast...who knows...maybe people are placing bets for an in line number and thus irrationally exuberant push higher...As a small business owner, I just can't shake the sense that something profound has changed. In some ways for the better, but for the near term economic outlook it is decidedly negative.
Maybe not this week, but by this fall we will be trading sub 2400 on the SP500 and talking about the worst economic crisis in living memory.
Printing fiat will not fix this...It is a system of payments, the payments can't stop for more than 30days...let alone 60-90, before the system just fails...Don't believe me? Get long and watch.
Short $SPYRising Wedge looks to be complete, we should be looking to see some more downside movement.
If this picks up we may see the "3rd Wave"
Bulltrap Nearing Completion - 4 Ideas on the BreakdownWe're finally nearing the completion of my bulltrap forecasts, and unsurprisingly, the market has chosen to draw it out as long as possible to the intersection of the previous lower trendline (dashed line) and the upper bearish trendline. The market laid out a nice bear trap by breaking below the previous lower trend line early, before opting to grind and re-test it multiple times once it turned into overhead resistance. I believe we're finally seeing the reversal downwards, though the bulls have some important support levels at 280 and 278 which could result in a bounce or sideways grind before finally breaking down. Bulls will look to defend this new lower trendline, while bears will look to break it down as soon as possible to open the door to much more downside movement.
Broke Channel from March 23rd - MACD turnover Yay! MACD has turned over on all charts but the daily, though it is in the process of turning over there later tonight. We've been in an ascending channel since March 23rd and we broke through it today finally. Money is flowing out of equities and into bonds which may be the gust of wind needed for this fundamentals domino set-up.
2880 was and is an important line to break through. We've blown past it in the futures, and I am hoping it continues. It may stop and turn around at some point tonight to test it. Potential for a big gap down day tomorrow with continued follow through. This should be fast and aggressive to the downside.
Article bonds vs. equities: finance.yahoo.com
Channel trade idea: break of 2901 -> 2775. On this 4 hour chart, we can see that if we break 2901, we can see that we'll be headed back down to the bottom of the channel. This line is at 2775. Also, the MACD is turning over.
Stop loss: 2910
Take profits around 2790.
S&P 500 be careful of Elliotte wave correctionElliote in 4hrs candles shows high possibility of correction
